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15 Jun 2009

Climate Change in Queensland under Enhanced Greenhouse Conditions (Final Report 2004-2005)

Report on research undertaken for Queensland Departments of State Devlopment, Main Roads, Health, Transport, Treasury, Public Works, Primary Industries & Fisheries, Environmental Protection, Natural Resources & Mines, Queensland Rail, SunWater, CS Energy.

Wenju Cai, Steve Crimp, Roger Jones, Kathy McInnes, Paul Durack, Bob Cechet, Janice Bathols and Scott Wilkinson

[Acrobat versions available at the end of this page]
Hard copies are available by emailing to rouseabout@nrm.qld.gov.au

Summary for Policymakers
Regardless of future emissions, there is general scientific consensus that atmospheric levels of greenhouse gases have already reached the point where climate change is inevitable. Indeed the impacts of human-induced climate change have already begun to emerge across the world.

In order to respond and possibly mitigate some of these future changes it is crucial that a full scientific understanding about the global climate system and it's links to likely regional impacts is understood. Climate change is also likely to result in "surprises" and investment in climate science is important to reduce the uncertainty of future projections and support well thought out policy responses.

Observational evidence shows that over the last 50 years Queensland's climate has on average become both warmer and drier. Projections strongly support a continuation of these trends in the future with temperatures increasing by up to 2oC and rainfall tending toward decrease over much of the state in the range of -13% to +7% by 2030.

Extreme historical climate events have already highlighted some areas of future climate risk in Queensland such as health and lifestyle; major infrastructure; industry; transport; water availability and security; the built environment; energy generation and distribution; land use planning; development; primary industries; natural systems and biodiversity.

A continuation of current climate trends in response to human influence on the global climate system will impose increasing costs upon the government, business and the wider community in term of managing and mitigating impacts. This may erode the government's ability to deliver on key elements of its community outcomes and related priorities, including regional development and efforts to foster new industries.

In a number of areas, the government is faced with important strategic decisions in the short to medium term where climate already plays an important role and thus climate change must be considered. Areas of particular concern include:

• expectations that in addition to observed warming trends, and resultant increases in evaporation, climate change will continue to deliver declining rainfall along coastal areas of Queensland, including the south east, with implications for the provision of adequate water supplies;
  
• likely increases in both average and extreme temperatures across the state as well as increases in extreme rainfall events will place increasing pressure on emergency response plans and services;
  
• the impact of climate change on extreme rainfall events and the implications for Queensland flood risk and land-use planning decisions associated with managing urban growth in the south-east; and
  
• the impacts of changes in average climate and extremes on the development of sustainable infrastructure and housing codes.

Given the current costs of extreme climate events on Queensland's economy, climate change related increases in extremes may result in significant increases in the cost of impacts. At present the costs of extreme events (excluding droughts) in Queensland such as flooding, severe storms, cyclones and bushfires amounts to $111.7 million, $37.3 million, $89.8 million and $0.4 million respectively (average calculated from 1967 to 1999 in 2001 dollars), per annum. (BTE, 2001; Coleman, 2003; Leigh et al., 1998; and Pittock et al., 1999 - full references in Appendix 3.) Historically, while the insurance industry has borne between 9 and 39% of the total cost of damage, the Federal and State Governments have been Climate Change in Queensland under Enhanced Greenhouse Conditions 7 required to bear the remaining 60 to 90%. With extreme events expected to intensify as a result of climate change the costs to government, the economy and the wider community are expected to increase.

Queensland's multi-billion dollar tourism industry is at risk due to expectations that iconic ecosystems, notably the Great Barrier Reef and the World Heritage listed rainforest ecosystems of north Queensland will suffer damage.

Climate change may also bring about a greater risk of tropical diseases with vector borne diseases, such as dengue fever, of particular concern. In addition adverse health impacts are also expected in response to the changes in the frequency and duration of heatwaves, increased toxic blue-green algal blooms in water supplies and through direct injury resulting from increases in the intensity of severe weather events. Similarly climate change is likely to change the current range and incursion frequency of pests and weeds resulting in increased costs of control and eradication.

Average rainfall is expected to continue to decline in coastal areas south of Cairns, in particular in central and south-east coastal Queensland (1 to 4% decline in rainfall per degree of global warming), suggesting that water availability and water quality are at risk in key population and economic centres.

Increasing average temperatures and declining average rainfall will also pose significant challenges to current land management practices and agriculture in Queensland. Climate change will thus influence the suitability of areas for grazing and agricultural production requiring a re-evaluation of enterprise type and production mix, with flow-on impacts on marketing, distribution and international trade of commodities.

Thus with climate change expected to impact more broadly across a number of sectors, incorporating climate change considerations into planning and decision-making frameworks will allow measures to be taken to minimise future risks and costs. Given the extensive range of possible climate change impacts the research undertaken on this issue is not simply of benefit to the Queensland Government, but will also benefit local governments, government-owned-corporations, business and the wider community.

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