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page regenerated:
16 May 2008

Latest coloured drought situation map.

Latest black & white drought situation map and shire listing.

OUTLOOK:

>From the Queensland Climate Change Centre of Excellence:

According to the Queensland Climate Change Centre of Excellence, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is currently in a positive phase. The 30 day average of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) remains positive and the average for April 2008 was 4.44. The outlook for April to June 2008 indicates a 30 to 60 percent chance of above median rainfall for much of Queensland.

While this represents a shift towards drier conditions, winter is traditionally Queensland's dry season. Some regions in the Gulf of Carpentaria and Cape York have a 50 to 80 percent chance of exceeding their median rainfall.

Some regions in the far west, south and North Queensland have a 30 to 50 percent chance of exceeding median rainfall. The outlook indicates that the Cooloola -Sunshine Coast area has a 70 to 80 percent chance of above median rainfall.

The La Nina sea surface temperature pattern that has persisted in the Pacific over summer has become less intense. As this pattern breaks down over autumn, some areas of Queensland will remain drought affected. It is worth noting that just as El Nino does not always equal a drought, La Nina events do not always bring above average rain and floods to eastern Australia.

STATE OVERVIEW:

Following recommendations from the Maryborough Local Drought Committee and the Barcaldine Local Drought Committee, the Minister for Primary Industries and Fisheries has officially revoked from drought the former Biggenden Shire and Division 2 of the former Tiaro Shire as at 13 April 2008, along with the former Aramac and Barcaldine Shires as at 30 April 2008.

Currently the land area of Queensland drought declared under State processes has decreased from 60.2 percent to 58.3 percent. There are 18 Individually Droughted Properties (IDPs) in a further four shires.

The Minister for Emergency Services has activated Natural Disaster Relief and Recovery Assistance (NDRRA) covering 83 percent of the land area of Queensland, following significant rainfall in some parts of the state.

LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES:

North Region: The northern wet season finished at the end of April with most districts receiving significant rainfall and improved seasonal conditions. This has been particularly evident in the southern parts of the region and the lower cape districts. The exception to this being in the southern gulf districts and a small area from Ingham to Tully. The dry finish to the season has only had minor impact due to good soil moisture levels although some of the rain fed cane crops are in need of further moisture. The warmer temperatures have provided ideal growing conditions for most horticulture crops. Across the extensive grazing lands pastures have hayed off as expected and producers have commenced normal dry season supplementation programs. Generally all stock remain in good condition.

West Region: Good rainfall in the eastern district of the region has resulted falls up to 700mm for the summer. This has resulted in a good pasture response in the Hughenden, Richmond, Muttaburra, Aramac, Barcaldine, Jericho, Alpha, Blackall, Tambo, Charleville and Cunnamulla areas. Some producers in these areas are now in a position where they can take advantage of the feed and provide agistment. Significant hay baling particularly of native pastures is occurring through this part of the region. West of Richmond and through the towns of Julia creek, Winton, Longreach, Jundah, Quilpie and Thargomindah the rainfall and pasture response has been patchy with most areas missing out. Further west around Mt Isa, Cloncurry, Camooweal, Birdsville, Bedourie, Boulia, Stonehenge and Eromanga conditions remain very dry. Most available feed has gone and many producers are destocking early to avoid declining pastures. Significant flooding through the Cooper, Warrego, Paroo, Bulloo systems has benefited producers allowing them to increase their options for production. Areas to the west continue to destock with the deteriorating pasture conditions. Pimelea is still a problem in areas that received winter rainfall and there is no competition from other pasture species. Pimelea has been reported on soils not traditionally associated with this plant.

Central Region: Pastures have dried off significantly and having set seed the nutritional value has dropped dramatically particularly in pasture that has gone to seed. Saleyard numbers are increasing in response to the dry conditions. Weaning is underway and this should preserve breeder condition. Much of the buffel grass remains green and is considered by graziers to be excellent feed for bullocks. Stock Movements appear to be normal for this time of year with no significant drought feeding being carried out. Most districts generally have a good body of feed following an improved summer season.

South-East Region: Most centres across the region reported below average rainfall for the month of April. While there were isolated storm events good rainfall is now needed to allow planting of a winter crop. Stock condition through out the district remains good. However, with the cooler weather and deteriorating pasture quality it could be expected that stock will lose some condition. Sale cattle numbers continue at normal levels and prices have remained static. There is generally a good bulk of pasture on most properties although as this dries off it may be necessary to provide supplementary feeding for stock. Many farms prepared silage and baled fodder crops for hay for the coming season. Wet conditions over summer and a dry start to autumn are expected to reduce the quality of hay this winter. Currently there is no drought feeding currently occurring. Many producers have. Supply of water varies markedly from farm to farm. Some properties have full dams whilst neighbouring areas still have empty dams and watercourses. Significant general rain is still needed to run creeks and fill dams.

South Region: Livestock condition is currently in forward store to fat condition. Most producers are closely monitoring summer pasture conditions prior to making management decisions. The dry conditions have caused pastures to hay off and although there is generally a reasonable quantity of summer pasture grown across the region, there are some locations around the Miles, Goondiwindi, Tara and Bell districts where native or improved pastures have not responded. A dry period starting February has limited the establishment of winter herbage and has raised the issue of whether there will be sufficient feed to carry stock through winter. An increase in pasture availability in the dairy producing areas has reduced the need to supplementary feed.

CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE:

North Region: On the Atherton Tablelands growing conditions have been ideal following a very good wet season. Peanut crop harvesting has commenced and good yields are anticipated. Production levels in maize crops are expected to be around 1.5t/ha above district averages. In the Bowen-Gumlu districts growing conditions have been ideal with the production of tomatoes, capsicums, egg fruit, sweet corn and melons up from the previous year. Harvesting of this year's summer crop is due to commence soon. In the wet tropics the dryer conditions have benefited both the paw paw and banana crops with a large amounts of fruit expected to be picked over the coming months. The low rainfall totals is this area may impact on irrigation supplies later in the year although near average rainfall during winter would alleviate any issues. In the Herbert district those farmers that have sufficient soil moisture have commenced planting sugar cane. In the Burdekin district good growing conditions for cane have been good with a plentiful water supply and fine sunny weather. Planting is underway and without rain delays should be completed mid May. On the Tablelands growers have been irrigating through out most of April. Crop estimates are expected to be around 700,000 tonnes which will exceed last year's crop.

Central Region: While the chances of above median wheat yields during the 2008 wheat-growing season are average across most of Queensland, there is some variation within certain parts of the Central Highlands showing a slightly above average chance of exceeding the long-term median wheat yield. In the Emerald district over half the sorghum crop has been harvested with yields ranging from 1.85 - 2.7 t/ha. Mungbeans crops have been provided with ideal growing conditions following good rainfall and a dry harvest with yields generally expected to be around 1.5t/ha. Chickpea plantings have commenced across the Central Highlands and with excellent soil moisture currently present this is now the ideal planting window for crops. In the Dawson Callide there has been some wheat on the back of rain that fell during late March in the Jambin and Mt Murchison districts. While these crops have generally emerged satisfactorily, there is a significant frost risk if the predicted cooler than average seasonal conditions eventuate. The summer crop harvest is almost complete with yield and grain quality generally being above average. Earlier sown spring and summer crop paddocks are expected be doubled cropped into wheat or chickpea although this will be dependent on significant rainfall occurring in the coming weeks.

South-East Region: In the South Burnett cropping region corn is now being harvested as it dries off. Yields have been average to better depending upon individual in crop rainfall. Current dry conditions have been ideal for soybean harvesting and returning average yields. Most sorghum crops have now been harvested with good yields and excellent prices. Earlier in the year there was potential for a large winter crop planting although dry conditions during the last two months has limited the opportunity to plant. In the Burnett Coast district peanuts crops are getting threshed with weather conditions being favourable for harvesting. Yield estimates to date indicate a reduction compared to last year. Sugarcane productivity generally appears to be lower this season despite good summer rainfall. The cloudy conditions coupled with persistent south-east winds have eroded the benefits of recent rainfall. In other horticulture activities the planting of strawberry runners for the 2008 season was completed in April. Initial reports indicate that establishment has been good without any significant problems to date. Custard apple prices are reported to be good although disease has generally been a problem due to the wet summer weather. Harvesting of the early season Shepard avocado has generally finished in the Bundaberg area. Early reports show a lower than expected crop although the fruit quality and size is good. Passionfruit growers on the Sunshine Coast report only modest crops over the autumn period but prices have been very good due to lower volumes on the market.

South Region: There was extensive planting of sorghum, corn, soybean and sunflower during summer with all crops generally returning above average yields and prices. The dry March and April ensured an uninterrupted sorghum harvest with the bulk of the crop being harvested with little weather damage. Temporary storages have been required on-farm due to excellent harvest results. Early planted crops have generally resulted in the better yields. The price and yields received for sorghum grain has assisted to offset input production costs. Wheat plantings have been dependent on good autumn rainfall although there is reasonable subsoil moisture availability. Dryland farmers are preparing for an extensive planting of wheat given the good soil moisture levels and high prices forecast. An early frost has caused damage to horticultural crops. On a more positive note, Granite Belt dam levels should ensure up to 18 month supply for most fruit and vegetable growers.

RAINFALL (figure in brackets indicates average)

North Region: Babinda received 38mm (571) Cairns A/P 27mm (n/a), Ingham 33mm (219), Innisfail 182mm (n/a), Townsville 2mm (61), Tully n/a (n/a), Bowen 0.0mm (n/a), Charters Towers 0.0mm (n/a), Georgetown 0.0mm (n/a) and Normanton A/P n/a (n/a) and Proserpine A/P 2mm (n/a).

West Region: Birdsville n/a (12), Boulia 0.0mm (14), Windorah 0.0mm (22), Cloncurry n/a (n/a), Mt Isa 0.0mm (16), Longreach 0.0mm (41), Muttaburra n/a (37), Winton 0.0mm (33) and Charleville 0mm (34).

Central Region: Alpha recorded n/a (27), Clermont 0.0mm (43), Springsure 0.8mm (46), Mackay 11mm (154), Yaamba 1mm (53), Biloela A/P n/a (n/a), Mt Larcom 13mm (56), Gladstone 5mm (54), Theodore 0.8mm (49), and Yeppoon n/a (n/a).

South-East Region: Eidsvold recorded 38mm (50), Gayndah 6mm (47), Mundubbera 38mm (42), Esk 20mm (73), Kilkivan 2mm (66), Kingaroy 3mm (n/a), Nanango n/a (57), Proston 4mm (52), and Beaudesert n/a (n/a). On the coastal fringe Bundaberg received 4mm (70), Maryborough 13mm (87), Nambour 44mm (n/a) and Tewantin 129 (n/a).

South Region: Clifton 28mm (52), Dalby 14mm (n/a), Goondiwindi 10mm (n/a), Inglewood 0.9mm (48), Oakey 5mm (47), Pittsworth 33mm (47), Stanthorpe 37mm (53), Toowoomba AP 20mm (n/a), Warwick 20mm (n/a), Roma 0.2mm (n/a), Miles 12mm (n/a), St George A/P 0.0mm (n/a) and Taroom 0.0mm (41).

WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES

North Region: There are no issues to report with both the major water storages currently sitting at 100 and 99 percent respectively.

West Region: With the exception of the north west of the region where some properties have a reliance on surface water, reserves are generally good.

Central Region: There still remain some water issues in the Banana, Monto and Calliope districts however all other areas appear to be adequate.

South-East Region: Water supplies vary across the district although significant general rain is still required to run creeks and fills on farm dams.

South Region: Stream flow has been slowed as a result of limited rainfall over the previous two months. While there has been some recovery of aquifers on farm water storages continue to fall.

How droughts are declared in Queensland

Drought declarations are made by the Minister for Primary Industries and Fisheries upon recommendations from Local Drought Committees (LDCs). Individually Droughted Property (IDP) status is granted when criteria related to rainfall, pasture and stock conditions are met. Drought status is revoked when there has been sufficient rainfall to promote enough pasture growth to permit stocking at 'normal' or 'near-normal' carrying capacities for the given time of year.

Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY

Enquiries to: Steve Bullock
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3182
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454

National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)

The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries.