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03 Feb 2010

Latest coloured drought situation map.

Latest black & white drought situation map and shire listing.

SITUATION AS AT 31 DECEMBER 2009

OUTLOOK:

>From the Queensland Climate Change Centre of Excellence (QCCCE) as at 8 December 2009:

The last passage of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) crossed Australian longitudes during the second half of November. It triggered patchy and isolated storms and showers throughout Queensland although unfortunately not generating widespread relief rain. Although there is some uncertainty in MJO predictions at present, it is looking like the next active MJO should cross northern Australia during late December or early January.

The MJO is a band of low air pressure which originates off the east coast of central Africa. It travels eastward across the Indian Ocean and northern Australia roughly every 30 to 60 days. Because of the timing of the MJO the phenomenon is also known as the forty day wave. It can be used as an indicator for the timing of potential rainfall events.

The impact of the MJO on rainfall varies between the different seasons and location. For example the MJO has a greater influence on rainfall throughout northern Australia during summer and southern Australia during winter. For more information on the MJO go to www.bom.gov.au

In the meantime based on a Consistently Negative Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) phase at the end of November and historical rainfall records there is a relatively low 20 to 40% chance of getting above median rainfall for December to February throughout most of Queensland. The exception is for the far western border regions of Queensland where there is a marginally higher 40 to 50% chance of getting above median rainfall for December to February.

STATE DROUGHT DECLARATIONS:

As at 31 December 2009, 35 percent of the land area of Queensland is drought declared under State processes. There are a total of 138 Individually Droughted Properties (IDPs) in 15 local government areas.

The Minister for Police, Corrective Services and Emergency Services, the Honourable Neil Roberts MP, has activated the Commonwealth/State Natural Disaster Relief and Recovery Arrangements (NDRRA) for the following communities within Queensland:

Those affected by bushfires commencing 22 September 2009:

* Barcaldine, Bundaberg, Central Highlands, Cook, Fraser Coast, Gladstone, Gold Coast, Gympie, Hinchinbrook, Isaac, Maranoa, North Burnett, Rockhampton, Somerset, South Burnett, Southern Downs, Townsville, Whitsunday.

Those affected by heavy rainfall and associated flooding on 20-25 November 2009:

* Barcoo, Diamantina.

Those affected by heavy rainfall and associated flooding 22 December 2009 to 4 January 2010:

* Barcaldine, Barcoo, Blackall Tambo, Bulloo, Longreach, Maranoa, Murweh, Paroo, Quilpie, Richmond, Winton, Balonne.

Widespread but patchy rainfall was recorded across much of the state in early January 2010 and information in this regard will be provided in the report as at 31 January 2010.

North Region: Babinda received 152mm (331), Bowen 36mm (n/a), Cairns A/P 76mm (190),Charters Towers 62mm (n/a), Georgetown 301mm (n/a), Ingham 99mm (217), Innisfail 96mm (n/a), Normanton A/P n/a (n/a), Proserpine A/P 56mm (n/a) and Townsville 269mm (148). (figure in brackets indicates average)

Conditions across the north were very hot and very dry at the beginning of the month. Following the long dry season the early storms expected did not materialise and as the month progressed, conditions were looking increasingly poor. Relief rain came in late December when a monsoonal trough moved into the region producing good falls across much of the area. Overall the rainfall was widespread but the amount varied with most of the region receiving below average December rainfall. The exception was the Gulf area running down towards Croydon where good falls were welcomed, but the effectiveness of this rainfall is yet to be known. The monsoonal activity continued into the new year and further falls have been ongoing but remain isolated and limited to storms. In the cropping areas rainfall has generally been adequate to see continued growth of cane and banana crops.

West Region: Birdsville n/a (17), Boulia 62mm (28), Windorah 65mm (27), Cloncurry n/a (n/a), Mt Isa 28mm (62), Longreach 104mm (51), Muttaburra 276mm (59), Winton 44mm (51) and Charleville 91mm (53). (figure in brackets indicates average)

At the beginning of the month areas generally south of an east west line from Kynuna were experiencing very dry conditions. Apart from an area centred around Wyandra, the better patches were from isolated narrow storms. In late December shower and storm activity produced more widespread rain across larger areas than earlier patterns resulting in rain being recorded over much of western Queensland. Weather conditions remained relatively cool and humidity remained high for the last week of the month improving the effectiveness of the rainfall.

Central Region: Alpha recorded 108mm (85), Clermont 45mm (101), Springsure 0.0mm (107), Mackay 179mm (197), Yaamba 102mm (131), Biloela A/P n/a (n/a), Mt Larcom 198mm (150), Gladstone 126mm (140), Theodore 78mm (102), and Yeppoon 120mm (n/a). (figure in brackets indicates average)

Most areas have received rain this month although the common description is that it has been patchy. Coastal Mackay has recorded good falls although reports from the hinterland indicate patchy falls in the vicinity of 30mm. Further south Rockhampton recorded 211mm for the period from Christmas to New Year but districts 40kls away recorded 60mm. This pattern is repeated throughout this whole district although the area around Bororen/Miriam Vale seems to have received more general rain. Many beef producers are considering early weaning as an option even with the relief rain as breeder condition is low and the preferred breeding season finishes at the end of February. There is a small fresh in the Fitzroy River at Theodore from good falls in the Taroom district.

South-East Region: Eidsvold recorded 61mm (86), Gayndah n/a (112), Mundubbera 92mm (100), Esk 136mm (111), Kilkivan 207mm (124), Kingaroy 188mm (n/a), Nanango 96mm (108), Proston 128mm (108), and Beaudesert n/a (n/a). On the coastal fringe Bundaberg received 95mm (138), Maryborough 76mm (134), Nambour 112mm (n/a) and Tewantin 59mm (n/a). (figure in brackets indicates average)

The area from Kingaroy to Monto recorded useful rain, although most of the better falls were from storms resulting in the amount of rain varying considerably in a short distance. The Gaeta area which was affected by earlier bushfires has received some rain which again varied considerably from property to property. Reports indicate that a number of small falls were recorded in the Brisbane Valley area which have freshened pastures, however this would not be sustained if it is followed by two to three weeks of hot dry weather. There has been little or no runoff and parts of the Brisbane River are dry. Few properties in this area are drought feeding but some producers are considering early weaning, particularly those on first calf cows.

South Region: Clifton recorded 54mm (109), Dalby 88mm (n/a), Goondiwindi 55mm (n/a), Inglewood 73mm (86), Oakey 60mm (93), Pittsworth 47mm (104), Stanthorpe 117mm (95), Toowoomba AP 48mm (n/a), Warwick 105mm (n/a), Roma 100mm (n/a), Miles 105mm (n/a), St George A/P 178mm (n/a) and Taroom 78mm (104). (figure in brackets indicates average)

Reports indicate that average or above average rainfall fell throughout the region. However falls were patchy within all districts. The rain this month will improve pasture production for those who received relief with stock benefitting from the pasture produced from the widespread rainfall. Although the pasture produced from the late December rainfall will reduce drought feeding for some producers, due to the patchiness of the rainfall, some producers will continue to feed stock. Water capacities have steadily declined over an extended dry period and soil moisture profiles were poor until recent rain. Many earlier planted crops failed or production was markedly reduced, however there may be an opportunity for late plantings of sorghum as a result of the December rain. Irrigated cotton crop areas of St George and Dirranbandi have been reduced but the recent inflow should assist production. Beardmore Dam is at 64% capacity compared to 16% at the end of November. Irrigation water supplies have ensured continuous vegetable production in the Granite Belt.

How droughts are declared in Queensland

Drought declarations are made by the Minister for Primary Industries, Fisheries and Rural and Regional Queensland upon recommendations from Local Drought Committees (LDCs). Individually Droughted Property (IDP) status is granted when criteria related to rainfall, pasture and stock conditions are met. An IDP gives the same access to Queensland Government drought assistance as an area declaration. An area revocation is recommended when generally the area has received enough rain to:

• Promote sufficient pasture growth to permit stocking at 'normal' or 'near normal' carrying capacities for the given time of year;

• Maintain that stocking rate until further rain could reasonably be expected, and

• Provide sufficient stock water to permit stocking at these levels

Information provided by:
The Department of Employment, Economic Development and Innovation

Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454