DROUGHT SITUATION REPORT
JULY 1996
In the North of the State productive rainfall was limited to the Atherton
Tablelands and surrounding areas and the coastal fringe above Ingham and
below Bowen. In the latter part of the month, good falls of rain were
received in some areas of the West region, particularly the south-west and
channel country. Some useful falls were also recorded through Central
Queensland, the Darling Downs, Burnett and the Brisbane and Lockyer
Valleys.
During the month the Shires of Taroom, Clifton, Stanthorpe, Pittsworth,
Millmerran and Wambo had their drought declarations revoked and the Shire
of Jericho was drought declared as at the 22 July. Therefore at the end of
July, 18 Shires and 7 part Shires are declared drought stricken along with
674 Individually Drought Declared Properties (IDP's) in 37 other Shires.
This represents approximately 24% of the State or 11,565 out of the 55,545
Department of Primary Industries registered livestock enterprises.
RAINFALL
North Region: During the month totals in excess of 100 mm were recorded
around Mossman, Babinda, Topaz, Cape Tribulation, Innisfail and Tully.
Many areas around the Atherton Tablelands received in excess of 20 mm but
little to no useful rainfall fell in the upper Gulf Country and western
section of the Cape. Areas of the lower Gulf received scattered light
falls with Normanton recording 12mm. The Townsville and Charters Towers
areas remain dry with no productive rainfall recorded at either centre
during the month.
Central Region: Some useful falls of rain were recorded throughout the
Region during the last week of July. Clermont received 68mm and the Mackay
area received totals of between 30mm and 50mm. Other areas in the Region
received totals of around 20mm to 25mm but falls were generally scattered
and will consequently bring very little relief to the droughted areas
around Jericho and Alpha.
South East Region: Good to excellent falls of rain were recorded in many
areas of the Region during the last week of the month. While many centres
throughout the region recorded falls in excess of 20mm, Kingaroy received
the highest total with 68mm. This contrasts strongly with the 1mm recorded
at Monto. Much of the coastal fringe received falls in excess of 10mm
which should not damage the sugar cane harvest currently under way. The
Brisbane Valley, Beaudesert/Boonah area and the Lockyer Valley all received
useful falls of rain which will ensure winter cereal crop viability and
relieve irrigation demand in the small cropping areas for the short term.
South Region: Much of the Region received good falls of rain during the
month especially during the last week. Totals exceeding 50 mm were
recorded at Talwood, Stanthorpe, Dalveen and Pilton. Western areas again
received good totals with St George and Roma both recording above 25mm.
Many areas of the Darling Downs also received totals in excess of 20mm
which should ensure good yields in winter crops.
West Region: Good falls of rain were recorded in the last week of the
month throughout much of the Channel Country and far south-west.
Birdsville and Boulia both received in excess of 50mm as did Thargomindah
and Eromanga. Some other centres received in excess of 25mm but the
droughted areas of Winton, Richmond, McKinlay and Flinders Shires received
little to no productive rainfall.
LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES
North Region: Frosts during the month have had an adverse affect on
pasture quality in some areas of the southern section of the Region, but
overall these parts are in fair to good condition except for the area
around Eaglefield in the Nebo Shire. Most lines of cattle in Dalrymple
Shire are holding condition with the exception of wet cows which are
starting to deteriorate due to pasture protein deficiency. The Atherton
Tableland has responded well to recent rainfall and stock condition is fair
to good. Etheridge Shire has some very dry areas and stock condition
reflects pasture availability and quality. Overall Mareeba Shire is well
placed this far through the year and pasture should hold out till the start
of summer storms.
Central Region: Much of the Region remains in fair to good condition for
this time of year but frosts in the central highlands have started to take
their toll on pasture quality. Pasture availability and quality remains
good around the Mackay and Sarina areas but then falls off around
Rockhampton and Miriam Vale. Rainfall experienced during late July should
produce some pasture response if weather conditions remain mild and frosts
are not to severe. Stock condition in the Jericho Shire continues to
deteriorate as pasture availability declines, while stock throughout the
rest of the Region vary according to pasture availability and quality.
Stock movements to agistment and supplementary feeding are increasing in
the areas which missed out on rainfall earlier in the year especially in
the western part of Clermont and Jericho Shires.
South East Region: Pasture condition throughout much of the Region has
suffered due to heavy frosts during the month and consequently pasture
quality has been affected. Stock in most areas are in good condition but
are expected to slip over the next month as a result of the annual decline
in pasture quality. Numbers of cattle moving to sale have been low
reflecting current prices and availability of feed. Very little drought
feeding is occurring in the Region with the exception of the Mundubbera,
Monto and Kilkivan (east) areas which to a large degree missed out on
summer rainfall and any subsequent falls. Some supplementary feeding has
also been reported in the Murgon Shire.
South Region: Standing pasture in many areas of the Region has hayed off
considerably during the month due to frosting. This has been offset to
some extent by the continued growth of winter herbage and clovers.
Consequently stock throughout most of the Region are in good to excellent
condition. Rainfall experienced throughout much of the Region during the
last week of the month will provide an excellent boost for winter dominant
plants which should ensure that stock condition remains good throughout
winter. There have been some isolated reports of supplementary feeding
commencing in the Murilla Shire due to lack of follow up rain in May.
Reports from the various selling centres throughout the Region indicate
that stock numbers at sales have increased during the month due to higher
returns and increased demand.
West Region: The north-west continues to hay off as drought conditions
worsen in the Winton, Richmond, Flinders and McKinlay Shires. In the
central-west pasture condition ranges from denuded to good dependent on the
amount of summer rainfall experienced. In the south and western parts of
the Region conditions range from poor to excellent, but with many areas
experiencing good falls of rain during the month pastures should respond
provided weather conditions are mild. Stock condition varies throughout
the Region dependant on amount and quality of standing feed. Cattle
condition in the north is poor to forward store while in the south and west
it ranges from store to fat. Agistment in the region is becoming difficult
to procure and consequently producers are continuing to unload stock at
reduced returns. Markets for sheep still exist in the southern states and
consequently interstate movements have increased during the month.
CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE
North Region: Rainfall on the Tablelands during the month assisted potato
growers and dairy farmers. In the Bowen area rainfall provided temporary
relief from irrigation for small crop growers. Cane growers throughout the
Region also received good falls during the month but the grain growing
areas around Nebo received very little beneficial rainfall and as a result
crops have begun to show signs of moisture stress. Follow up rain is
needed urgently in the Nebo area to ensure a harvest.
Central Region: Frost damage to winter crops has been reported from the
Callide-Dawson and yield reductions could be expected in some of the low
lying areas which were hardest hit by frosts. Crops which missed out on
the rainfall of May/June have failed to develop secondary roots and are
starting to show signs of stress as the upper soil moisture profile dries
out. It is thought that the recent rainfall experienced across much of the
Region's grain growing areas will resurrect much of the wheat crop but at
least one more fall of rain will be needed in many areas to finish crops,
ensure good yields and provide adequate soil moisture for spring
planting's. Conversely, crops planted earlier in the year which received
follow rain during May and late this month are virtually assured of
excellent yields as long as frost damage does not occur during flowering.
South East Region: During the month final winter crop planting's were
completed. Earlier planting's have been affected by a dry spell in June
and early July but should respond to the recent rainfall. In the central
and north Burnett winter crops have benefited greatly from the recent rain
but follow rain will be needed in many areas to ensure good yields.
Rainfall during July has been welcomed by cane growers and early
indications from the Isis and Maryborough areas point to a record crop this
season. Conversely, growers in the Bundaberg area are expecting reduced
yields due to lack of summer rainfall and follow up falls. Reports from
that area indicate that some cane crops may not be harvested as they will
be unviable, but these are expected to be in the minority. The outlook for
small crop growers in the Region remains favourable with the harvest of
winter crops currently under way. Recent rainfall has been a bonus for
many growers and should assist spring planting's.
South Region: Farmers throughout the Region are expecting high yields from
winter crops due to the rainfall experienced during the last week of the
month. Crops in most areas received between 15mm and 35mm and if follow up
rain occurs around flowering an excellent harvest should be assured. Mice
numbers in some areas of the Darling Downs remain high and there is concern
that populations will explode during spring and the onset of warmer
temperatures. On the eastern downs there have been reports of losses in
wheat and chick pea crops due to Root Lesion Nematode and it appears that
the disease is also spreading into the Waggamba and Tara Shires.
WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES
The latest Water Storage Report issued by the Department of Natural
Resources is attached for general information on water storage capacities
throughout the State.
North Region: Water supply problems continue in many areas of the Region
reflecting the lack of summer rainfall and follow up falls. In areas that
are experiencing years of consecutive below average rainfall surface water
shortages are continuing to be a major concern for cattle producers. The
light scattered falls recorded through areas of the Region have done little
to alleviate surface water shortages in the extensive grazing areas.
Central Region: The majority of streams in the Region continue to recede
with the exception of the Pioneer River and Cattle Creek which responded to
the larger rainfall totals recorded in the area. Levels in minor storage's
on the Dawson, Mackenzie and Fitzroy rivers are beginning to decline while
the major storage's, Fairbairn and Callide Dams have not received any
inflow. Storage's on the Pioneer River are full and Kinchant Dam is still
overflowing. Groundwater levels remain low in some areas except where
stream flows remain high. Generally bore levels have not responded to the
rainfall experienced earlier in the year. Stock water supplies remain
critical in the Jericho Shire with no relief from the recent rain.
South East Region: Stream flows have slowed considerably due to the lack
of run-off but are consistent with normal seasonal occurrences. Ground
water levels remain variable throughout the Region depending on location.
Storage capacities in most of the Region's dams and weirs have dropped from
the previous month due to consumption and evaporation. Fred Haigh Dam is
currently at 24% and Wuruma Dam 21% of their normal capacities.
South Region: Groundwater supplies remain depleted on the eastern Downs
but surface water availability is abundant throughout most of the Region.
Recent rainfall has reduced the demand for irrigation and consequently
supplies of irrigation water in off stream storage's remain high. This
will ensure the availability of water for summer planting as well as reduce
the burden placed on underground supplies. Most Dam capacities throughout
the Region remain near peak capacity with the exception of Leslie Dam at
Warwick which remains at 77 % of capacity.
West Region: Reports of shortages in surface water from the northern
sections of the Region indicate that conditions in these areas are
deteriorating rapidly. Elsewhere surface and underground water storage's
are adequate for the present.
OUTLOOK
The average SOI for July was +6.7, while the average SOI for the 30 days
ending 31 July was +6.5 (see attached graph). The SOI trend during
June-July was phase 2 (consistently positive).
The attached map shows the total rainfall over Queensland during July,
together with maps of rainfall relative to historical records for the last
three months and the last twelve months. Most climate forecast systems are
suggesting 'average to above average' rainfall for the next three months in
Eastern Australia (see attached map). Thus the probability of exceeding
median rainfall in these areas, is about 65%. Exceptions are coastal
districts from Bundaberg to north-eastern Victoria and the southern half of
the Western Darling Downs where probabilities are about 55%.
The attached maps show the probabilities of exceeding 50mm, 100mm and 200mm
of rainfall around Queensland over the next three months. The sea-surface
temperature map for July, together with comments, is also attached.
Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY
Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454
National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)
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The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries. |
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