DROUGHT SITUATION REPORT
JUNE 1996
In the first half of the month, good falls of rain were received in the
coastal areas north of Townsville. This rainfall also extended west of
Charters Towers to Homestead and south to Clermont. The southern part of
the State received useful falls which went as far inland as Charleville, St
George and Goondiwindi. Very little productive rain was recorded in the
majority of western Queensland and lower Gulf Country. In central
Queensland little to no beneficial rainfall was recorded to the south east
of Clermont through to Rockhampton and south to Taroom.
During the month the Shires of Esk, Gatton, Inglewood, Ipswich, Jondaryan,
Kingaroy, Kilkivan, Laidley, Murgon, Moreton and Nanango had their drought
declarations revoked. Therefore, at the end of June, 23 Shires and 7 part
Shires are declared drought stricken along with 1258 Individually Drought
Declared Properties (IDP's) in 46 other Shires. This represents
approximately 29% of the State or 16,208 out of the 55,545 Department of
Primary Industries registered livestock enterprises.
RAINFALL
North Region: Totals in excess of 100 mm were recorded around Babinda,
Cairns, Topaz, Innisfail and Tully. Recordings in excess of 50 mm were
also recorded in Atherton, Kuranda, Malanda, Ingham, Lucinda, Cardwell and
Mackay. Some areas to the west and south of Charters Towers received
useful falls, but little to no rainfall fell in the lower Gulf Country.
Central Region: Useful falls in excess of 20 mm were recorded around
Clermont, Builyan, Biloela, Gladstone, Childers, Wowan, Mt Morgan and
Monto. The remainder of the region received little to no productive
rainfall especially in the areas to the south and west of Emerald.
South East Region: Rainfall in the region was average for this time of the
year with the coastal fringe receiving the highest totals. Inland,
recordings in excess of 20 mm were recorded at Canungra, Biggenden,
Dayboro, Kilcoy, and Woodford. Scattered falls occurred elsewhere in the
region which may prove productive dependent on amount and duration.
South Region: Light scattered rainfall occurred throughout much of the
region during the month. Totals exceeding 20 mm were recorded in the
western reaches of the region around Texas, Goondiwindi, St George,
Yelarbon, Mitchell and Thallon. Elsewhere, totals struggled to reach 10 mm
which could have some impact on pasture and crop growth depending on
individual circumstances.
West Region: Only scattered falls resulting from storm activity were
recorded in the central and south west of the region. One property near
Aramac received 100 mm, but generally totals were poor and will do little
to alleviate the dry conditions prevalent in most of the region. The
northern part of the region received no useful rainfall.
LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES
North Region: Most of the stock in the region are in fair to good
condition due to autumn rainfall and mild winter conditions to date.
Available pasture in most areas is in fair condition with the exception of
scattered parts of the Bowen Shire, the Eaglefield area in the Nebo Shire,
areas around Mingela and Greenvale in the Dalrymple Shire, around Kidston
and Forsayth in the Etheridge Shire and much of the Burke and Carpentaria
Shires where normal summer rain was not received and pasture has generally
not responded. With many producers facing the possibility of little to no
productive rainfall between now and November/December many graziers are
opting to lighten stock numbers and maintain some cash flow. Consequently,
meatworks are still operating at close to full capacity.
Central Region: Areas of the region which received rainfall during May are
well placed for feed reserves for this time of year. The rainfall combined
with mild weather conditions during Autumn and early winter has stimulated
pasture growth in many areas and should ensure sufficient availability for
the remainder of winter. Conversely, pasture in much of the Jericho Shire
has not improved due to the lack of summer rainfall and what feed reserves
remain are quickly deteriorating. Supplementary feeding is on the increase
in areas which did not receive rainfall during May and overall stocking
rates throughout the Region remain light.
South East Region: Stock throughout the Region are in good to excellent
condition following the May rain. Pasture is still green in many areas due
to the mild winter conditions experienced thus far. Sale and slaughter
numbers of cattle remain low due to the depressed market and current
availability of feed. No drought feeding is known to be occurring in the
Region and some areas have reported the growth of winter clovers and
herbage for the first time in many years.
South Region: Animal and plant production remain high due to the excellent
summer rainfall and follow up rain of May. Winter herbage and clover have
responded well to the rainfall of May and standing feed quality remains
good due to mild winter conditions experienced to date. Stock condition is
good to excellent throughout the region while cattle numbers travelling to
sale and slaughter remain low, reflecting current market trends. Numbers
of cattle in feedlots remain low due to the availability of pasture and
poor returns for the finished article, especially for feedlotters
traditionally suppling the Japanese market.
West Region: With much of the Region experiencing below average summer
rainfall, pasture condition continues to deteriorate in many areas
especially in the north west. Stock in these areas are in poor to average
condition and owners continue to lighten stock numbers through sales and
abattoirs despite low returns for cattle. Conversely, areas of the
southern central west, which received good rainfall during summer and again
in early May have an excellent body of feed and stock in this area continue
to improve in condition.
CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE
North Region: On the tablelands the harvesting of the maize and peanut
crops nears completion and planting of the potato crop is well under way.
In parts of the Nebo Shire the rainfall of early May, although causing
problems for farmers harvesting summer crops, has proved a bonus for wheat
growers. Many farmers were able to sow crops into an average soil moisture
profile and then receive follow up rain after germination, all but ensuring
at least an average yield this year. Irrigation supplies throughout the
Region reflect the water deficit accumulated during the drought, however
opportunities for small crop farmers around Bowen, Major Creek and Charters
Towers appear better than average this year. Cane farmers in the Region
report the rainfall of May has reduced the need for irrigation in many of
the areas but has done little to alleviate the groundwater deficit.
Pumping restrictions currently remain in place.
Central Region: A large wheat crop has been planted in the Central Region
this year due to high soil moisture levels in May/June, however follow rain
will be required during July to ensure crop survival and viability.
Although wheat planting's account for over 90 per cent of the crop sown in
the Region some farmers have also sown chick peas to hedge their, bets but
planting's remain small due to current prices for pulse crops.
South East Region: In the Burnett over 60 per cent of the winter crop has
now been planted. Further rainfall of between 25 and 50 mm in July will
allow the planting of remaining areas of cultivation particularly in the
frost prone areas. The cane crushing season in the Bundaberg area has
begun and it is expected that other areas will follow suit in the next few
weeks. Early indications from the Bundaberg area on this years crop are
that yields will be lower than that of last year due to the dry period
experienced between late January and May. The outlook for horticulture in
the Region remains favourable with all areas experiencing adequate
rainfall. In the Lockyer Valley re-planting of crops damaged by flooding
has been completed and it is hoped that production will be able to be
returned to suitable levels in the near future.
South Region: There have been extensive planting's of wheat, barley,
chickpeas and forage oats throughout the Region. Farmers have taken
advantage of record summer rainfall to sow crops into a full soil moisture
profile. The rainfall experienced during early May has ensured crop
viability and the mild winter conditions to date have resulted in
exceptional plant growth. Numbers of mice continue to remain high in many
areas and reports indicate that germination failures in some areas can bee
attributed to mice eating freshly planted seed. Harvesting of the cotton
crop continued during the month, downgrading of much of the crop has
occurred due to flooding earlier in the year and has reduced profits by $50
to $150 per bale. Vegetable growers have had above ground water storage's
replenished by recent rains and this will ensure water reserves for spring
production. Stonefruit, grapes and apples are currently in the dormancy
phase but there is sufficient water stored to begin irrigation of these
crops next season.
WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES
The latest Water Storage Report issued by the Department of Natural
Resources is attached for general information on water storage capacities
throughout the State.
North Region: Surface water shortages are expected in the lower Gulf and
western Shires by the end of winter due to below average summer rainfall.
The Eungella and Peter Faust dams are currently below 50% of their maximum
capacity.
Central Region: Streams are either dry or receding from the small freshes
of early May. Storage's on the Dawson, Mackenzie and Fitzroy Rivers are
near full, while the major storage's of Fairbairn Dam and Callide Dam still
have not received any inflow. Fairbairn Dam is at 25 % capacity with the
announced allocation continuing at 40 % of normal allocation. Conversely
storage's on the Pioneer River are full and Kinchant Dam is overflowing.
Underground storage levels have not changed in most areas and are still low
as is surface stock water which still remains in short supply in some
areas.
South East Region: Stream flows have continued in many areas with the
prospect of underground supplies being supplemented. Flows in many North
Burnett streams have been short with creeks drying up quickly. Storage
capacities in most of the Region's dams and weirs remain high except for
Wuruma, Fred Haigh and Cania Dams which are all below 50 % of their
capacity. Ground water levels throughout the Region remain variable
depending on location.
South Region: There has been little replenishment of underground supplies
on the Darling Downs. The demand for irrigation water has been reduced to
some extent due to the rainfall of May, which also enabled many irrigators
to top up off stream storage's and ensure availability of water for summer
planting's. Dam capacities throughout the Region remain high and many
pumping restrictions have been lifted ensuring availability of maximum
allocations. Leslie Dam at Warwick remains the lowest of the Region's
storage facilities, currently it is at 77 % of capacity.
West Region: Reports indicate that surface and underground water storage's
are adequate for the present.
OUTLOOK
The average SOI for June was +10.5, while the average SOI for the 30 days
ending 5 July was +11.3 (see attached graph). The SOI trend during
May-June was phase 4 and rapidly rising.
The attached map shows the total rainfall over Queensland during June,
together with maps of rainfall relative to historical records for the last
three months and the last twelve months.
Most climate forecast systems are suggesting 'average to above average'
rainfall for the July - September period for Queensland (see attached map).
Thus the probability of exceeding median rainfall for the next three
months is about 50% to 70%. The higher probabilities are noticeable in the
eastern districts of Queensland and the Cental Highlands.
The attached maps show the probabilities of exceeding 50mm, 100mm and 200mm
of rainfall around Queensland over the next three months.
The sea-surface temperature map for June, together with comments, is also
attached.
The trend in the SOI over April/May suggests little variation from the
median date of last frost for most of Queensland and northern NSW, except
for the Biloela, Emerald and Tamworth areas where it is about one week
later than normal.
Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY
Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454
National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)
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The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries. |
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