DROUGHT SITUATION REPORT
OCTOBER 1996
Useful rainfall was recorded across much of the State during the month with
some of the badly droughted areas of central, western and north -western
Queensland receiving excellent totals. In these areas pasture response has
been varied and follow up will be needed within the next two months to
ensure continued plant growth and pasture regeneration. In other areas of
north and north - western Queensland rainfall was patchy and some areas
missed out all together. The drought situation in much of the McKinlay
Shire continues to deepen as do conditions in much of the Bowen, Dalrymple,
Nebo and Belyando Shires. Across most of southern Queensland the excellent
start to spring has been maintained by useful falls of rain during the
month. In most of the grain growing areas of the State the harvest of
winter cereals has commenced with excellent yields reported from many
districts.
During the month the part Shire of Quilpie (south of the
Charleville-Quilpie Road) had it's drought status revoked. Therefore at
the end of October, 17 Shires and 5 part Shires are declared drought
stricken along with 577 Individually Drought Declared Properties (IDP's) in
30 other Shires. This represents approximately 22% of the State or 9550
out of the 55,545 Department of Primary Industries registered livestock
enterprises.
RAINFALL
North Region: Widespread but variable rainfall occurred across much of the
Region during the month. Good falls of rain were recorded in some of the
badly droughted areas but others missed out altogether and consequently
these areas continue to decline with the onset of warmer temperatures.
Larger rainfall totals were generally confined to the coastal fringe above
Townsville, The Cape and Atherton Tablelands. Babinda and Tully both
recorded in excess of 300mm whilst Malanda received 130mm and Innisfail
180. On the other end of the scale Townsville recorded 63mm, Bowen 23mm
and Charters Towers 14.
West Region: Useful falls were recorded across the much of the Region
during the month, with falls ranging from 50mm to 150mm. Some properties
in the Winton, Richmond and Aramac areas received excellent totals but the
majority of McKinlay Shire missed out on any productive rain and
consequently conditions continue to deteriorate in this area. Conversely,
areas around Quilpie, Charleville and Blackall received some good follow up
rain to the falls experienced the previous month. Winton recorded 122mm
whilst Maxwelton and Richmond both received around 100mm. Mt Isa recorded
59, Longreach 72, Charleville 112 and Quilpie 39.
Central Region: Rainfall in the early part of the month brought good falls
of better than 50mm to many parts of the Region. Excellent falls were
recorded in much of the Jericho Shire and pasture has responded
accordingly. Conversely much of Belyando Shire and an area around Mackay
has missed out on productive rainfall and continues to decline. Elsewhere,
rainfall during the month has provided short term relief at best and follow
up falls will be needed within the next two months to ensure continued
plant growth and pasture regeneration. Alpha recorded 86mm, Emerald 167mm,
Springsure 106mm and Monto 181mm. On the coast Mackay received 63mm and
Rockhampton 65mm.
South East Region: Much of the Region, except the North and Central
Burnett, experienced falls of between 30mm and 80mm during the month. In
these areas conditions remain dry and rainfall is required urgently to
alleviate the drought conditions which prevail over much of that area. In
the Brisbane and Lockyer Valley's rainfall during the month was welcomed as
it topped up soil moisture levels and reduced the demand on irrigation.
Kingaroy and Bundaberg recorded in excess of 90mm, Esk 67mm and Boonah and
Beaudesert around 60mm.
South Region: Rainfall fell widely across the majority of the Region during
the month. Good falls were recorded in many of the grain growing and
extensive grazing areas and consequently conditions remain good for this
time of the year. Totals vary considerably with the majority of centres
recording in excess of 15mm. Mitchell recorded 121mm while Roma received
39mm. Dalby, Chinchilla, St George, Pittsworth and Warwick all recorded in
excess of 40mm while Goondiwindi totalled 24mm.
LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES
North Region: Most of the areas which received good rainfall during the
month are well placed for feed reserves for this time year and consequently
stock condition ranges from fair to good. In the areas which have missed
out on productive rainfall stock condition varies according to the
availability of standing pasture and the degree of supplementation being
undertaken. In these areas drought feeding is in full swing and most lines
of stock have slipped in condition due to the onset of the hot dry windy
weather. Across much of the Region initial and follow up rainfall will be
required before Christmas to reduce expected stock losses if high
temperatures and lack of rainfall persist.
West Region: The availability and quality of pasture varies markedly
throughout the Region and this is evident in the condition of stock. Most
properties in the southern, central and central west of the Region have
received useful rainfall during the last two months and pasture has
responded accordingly. Conversely parts of McKinlay, Boulia, Richmond,
Flinders and Cloncurry Shire have deteriorated due to lack of productive
rainfall and the onset of the high temperatures. Areas around Winton,
Aramac and Richmond received some good falls of rain during the month but
pasture response has been varied and follow up falls are needed to ensure
continued plant production. There have been reports of continuing stock
losses in parts of the McKinlay Shire, north of Winton. The situation
continues to deteriorate for many graziers in this area which is quite
evident to people travelling along the Matilda Highway. In stark contrast,
Quilpie recently had it's first cattle sale for ten years with store and
fat cattle being yarded. In the Blackall district stock are in excellent
condition and reports indicate that twin lambing has been prevalent
throughout the area.
Central Region: Conditions remain variable in much of the Region and
consequently pasture availability and stock condition vary markedly from
one area to the next. Recent rainfall has had a positive affect on the
growth of pasture in much of the Region and the condition of stock has
improved with the flush of feed. In the Shires of Belyando and Nebo many
areas have either missed out on rainfall or the totals have been minor and
accordingly stock condition rates from poor to fair. Survival feeding
continues in these areas as graziers attempt to maintain stock condition
till productive rainfall eventuates. A number of areas in these Shires
remain denuded of vegetation and rainfall is needed urgently to alleviate
drought conditions and improve stock condition.
South East Region: The availability and quality of pasture across most of
the Region is quiet good for this time of the year with the exception of
the Central and North Burnett where drought conditions still prevail.
Areas which have received the rainfall of the past few months have an
abundance of feed and stock condition varies between good and excellent.
Some producers in the Brisbane Valley have indicated that that their cattle
have come out of the winter months in the best condition seen for many
years. Other graziers have had the luxury of a large body of dry standing
feed and have opted to burn off, a practice not seen for many years in
these areas. In many cases follow up falls of rain have been recorded on
these properties resulting in flush of green feed which will further
promote and enhance stock condition.
South Region: Animal and plant production remain high across much of the
Region due the excellent winter and spring rainfall. Rainfall during the
last two months combined with the onset of warmer temperatures has resulted
in the growth of large quantities of summer pasture. Accordingly stock
condition varies between good and excellent which is also a reflection of
reduced stocking rates on many properties due to the long term drought.
The incidence of drought feeding has diminished and indications are that
the only form of supplementary feeding presently occurring is that of
normal seasonal supplementation.
CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE
North Region: Rainfall during the month on the Atherton Tablelands has been
a bonus for farmers and prospects look bright for the summer months.
Recent rainfall has topped up soil moisture levels and reduced the demand
on irrigation in many areas. Conversely in the Bowen and Gumlu areas
rainfall has been light and scattered at best and consequently demand on
irrigation has been high. This has been offset to some extent by the
increased use of trickle irrigation which has improved water use
efficiency. A good wet season is needed in this area to replenish soil
moisture levels and underground water supplies. Good to excellent falls of
rain in the cane growing areas during the month were welcomed by growers
and have reduced the demand on irrigation.
Central Region: During the month the majority of the wheat harvest in the
Dawson and Callide Valleys was completed. Generally speaking rain damage
to crops was not as bad as expected, with a significant amount of grain
making AH grade or higher. Likewise the damage caused by frosting in
August was not as bad as expected with many growers recording average
yields. In the Central Highlands the harvest is almost complete with
yields down on earlier estimates due to frosting. Rain earlier in the
month contributed to a reduction in the quality of some crops due to
sprouting. In other areas the rain has been welcomed by farmers planting
spring and summer crops and prospects look bright for good yields if follow
up occurs within the next month.
South East Region: Wheat yields across the Burnett have suffered from frost
and/or rain damage. Fewer crops than normal are grading Prime Hard, with
most crops being sold as ASW or feed grade. Green heads due to rainfall
are also causing downgrading in some crops. Reports indicate that yields
throughout much of the Region have been in the order of 1 tonne/hectare.
Whilst rainfall over the last two months was not welcomed by grain growers
with winter crops, it has proved beneficial for summer crop growers. Soil
moisture levels have been replenished and there have been extensive
plantings of sorghum, soy beans, corn and peanuts. In the cane growing
areas yields were a little lower than expected but still quite good
considering the dry season. In the Bundaberg area many small crop growers
still require a break in the season and rainfall is needed urgently to
enable preparation of ground for planting of summer crops. In the Lockyer
Valley production levels have returned to normal after the extended
drought. Recent rainfall has increased soil moisture levels and prospects
look bright for the summer planting season. Hail and storm damage during
the last few days of the month in the Monto and Mundubbera areas affected
grape, mango, avocado, citrus and some winter cereal crops although exact
losses may not be known for some time.
South Region: The harvesting of winter crops throughout most of the Region
commenced during the month. Although frosting, root nematode, rain and
hail have contributed to reduced yields in some areas, isolated reports of
wheat crops yielding 2.5 tonne/hectare have still been recorded. Recent
rainfall has encouraged farmers to plant large areas of ground to spring
and summer crops, such as forage sorghum and cotton. On the Granite Belt
an excellent winter and spring has ensured an excellent stonefruit and
grape harvest for most growers. Soil moisture levels remain high in most
of the vegetable growing areas and this combined with the abundance of
water for irrigation should ensure a good summer growing season.
WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES
The latest Water Storage Report issued by the Department of Natural
Resources is attached for general information on water storage capacities
throughout the Sate
North Region: Rainfall during the month reduced the need for irrigation in
many of the farming areas in the short term and consequently reduced demand
on underground and surface water storages. Some inflow into stock water
dams and major storages was reported in the areas which experienced good
rainfall. In the other areas, particularly around Charters Towers, water
cartage for stock use on some properties will continue until good
substantial rainfall occurs.
West Region: Rainfall during the month had a positive affect on the
availability of stock water in many parts of the Region. Most of the river
systems had a 'fresh' which topped up waterholes and this will alleviate
water shortages for the short term. In the areas which received the larger
rainfall totals, many stock water dams had good inflow which has halted the
decline of available surface water and should negate the need for water
cartage for some producers. Elsewhere, especially in much of the McKinlay
Shire the situation remains unchanged with the shortage of water a major
concern as temperatures rise and a decline in water levels due to
evaporation increases.
Central Region: Storms earlier in the month resulted in good streamflow
activity in some of the areas most in need. Fairbairn Dam received good
inflow with the announced allocation for 1996/1997 being upgraded from 10%
to 50%. In most other areas, except the north of the Region, rainfall
during the month has resulted in significant inflow into many stock dams
and water storages. Good rainfall in much of the Jericho Shire replenished
stock water supplies on many properties and has reduced the incidence of
water cartage. Whilst underground supplies remain variable throughout the
Region there have been reports of recharge occurring to some supplies.
South East Region: The levels of most of the Regions storages remained
stable or increased slightly during the month. There was some inflow into
Fred Haigh dam, but it and Wuruma dam still remain the driest in the
Region. Stream flows in most areas have continued to slow as is normal for
this time of the year. Ground water levels remain variable in most areas.
Some bores have responded well to the rainfall during winter and spring
whilst others have shown little or no change. In the Bundaberg area the
ground water situation is very poor with some bores recording salt water
intrusion.
South Region: Whilst there has been little replenishment of groundwater
supplies on much of the Darling Downs the majority of supplies on the
Eastern Downs are better than they have been in recent years. Most of the
shallow rock aquifers have made strong recoveries with water levels in many
areas approaching levels recorded five years ago. Surface water supplies
remain good in most areas of the Region as do the regulated capacities.
Recent rainfall has reduced the need for irrigation in many areas but this
will increase as farmers pre - water land for the planting of summer crops.
OUTLOOK
The average SOI for October was +6.2, while the average SOI for the 30 days
ending 31 October was +4.1 (see attached graph). The SOI trend during
September - October was phase 2 (positive).
The attached map shows the total rainfall over Queensland during September,
together with maps of rainfall relative to historical records for the last
three months and the last twelve months. Most climate forecast systems are
suggesting 'average to slightly above average' rainfall for the next three
months in Eastern Australia (see attached map). Thus the probability of
exceeding median rainfall in these areas, is about 65%. Exceptions are the
north - west and far central - west of Queensland, where probabilities are
about 55%; in parts of north - eastern Queensland and the central - western
Darling Downs probabilities are about 75%.
Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY
Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454
National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)
 |
The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries. |
|
