DROUGHT SITUATION REPORT
SEPTEMBER 1996
A large storm front which moved in an easterly direction through central
Australia during the last few days of September produced useful rainfall in
many areas of central and southern Queensland. Good falls were recorded in
some of drought affected Shires of central Queensland but in most areas
these totals will provide interim relief at best from the ongoing affects
of drought. Rainfall in the north and north west of the state was very
isolated with the badly drought affected areas receiving little to no
productive falls. The drought situation continues to worsen around
Townsville and Charters Towers and further west in the McKinlay, Flinders,
Winton and Richmond Shires. In some of these Shires, large areas of land
are totally denuded of pasture and concerns have been raised that when
drought breaking rain finally occurs there will not be enough seed reserves
to regenerate these areas with native pastures.
During the month the Shire of Warwick had it's drought status revoked.
Therefore at the end of September, 17 Shires and 6 part Shires are declared
drought stricken along with 600 Individually Drought Declared Properties
(IDP's) in 30 other Shires. This represents approximately 23% of the State
or 9573 out of the 55,545 Department of Primary Industries registered
livestock enterprises.
RAINFALL
North Region: Dry conditions remained prevalent over the majority of the
Region during the month with land holders desperate for significant early
storms. The only reports of significant rainfall in the north of the State
during the month were along the coastal fringe north of Townsville. Ingham
which received 30mm and Babinda 36mm were the best of the falls with other
totals averaging around 10mm.
West Region: Scattered rainfall occurred through much of the Region during
the month with the majority of the more useful totals confined to the
central and south west corner of the State. Isisford with 40mm and
Blackall with 52mm received the better totals while Quilpie, Charleville
and Thargomindah all received in excess of 20mm. The more badly drought
affected areas of the north and north west received very little beneficial
rainfall.
Central Region: Widespread rainfall was recorded throughout much of the
Region during the last few days of the month. Totals varied considerably,
with the majority of the bigger falls occurring on the coast. Whilst
Rockhampton received 21mm, Bundaberg and Builyan received in excess of
140mm. Some of the droughted areas also received useful falls which may
provide temporary relief and rekindle hope at best. Alpha recorded 86mm
and Bogantungan 94mm whilst Clermont received 6mm. Capella, Springsure,
Comet, Moura, Biloela and Moura all received totals in excess of 50mm
South East Region: Useful rainfall was recorded across much of the Region
during the month with falls ranging from 20mm to 80mm. Murgon recorded
57mm while Gatton, Kilcoy and Esk received in excess of 40mm. The majority
of other centres throughout the Burnett, the Lockyer and Brisbane Valleys
recorded around 20mm.
South Region: The majority of the Region experienced beneficial rainfall
during the month. Totals for the month varied considerably with the
majority of the better falls occurring on the eastern Darling Downs and
border areas. Ballandean recorded 102mm, Clifton 77mm, Pittsworth 72,
Toowoomba 56mm and Dalby 51mm. In the western areas Roma received 31mm, St
George 33mm, Goondiwindi 38, while Injune, Taroom and Wandoan recorded in
excess of 40mm.
LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES
North Region: Extremes of weather were experienced across much of the
Region during the month, from late frosts to high temperatures. These
extremes have played havoc with pastures and stock condition. Overall
stock condition throughout the Region continues to decline as is normal at
this time of year. This decline in stock condition has been exacerbated in
many areas due to ongoing drought and reduction in normal supplementary
feeding due to a cash flow crisis. Many graziers have reached the end of
cash flow reserves and are limited in their ability to supplement stock to
maintain condition until fresh pasture growth occurs. On the Cape and in
the upper Gulf, grass fires have ravaged many hectares of grazing land
which has reduced the availability of pasture and resulted in numerous
applications for Individually Disaster Stricken Properties (IDSP). The
overall picture for much of the inland section of the Region remains grim
unless significant rainfall occurs within the next two months.
West Region: Pasture condition and consequently stock condition vary
markedly from the north to the south of the Region. In the north, drought
conditions continue to worsen especially in the Shires of Winton, McKinlay,
Flinders and Richmond. In these Shire's overall stock condition is poor
reflecting the lack of available pasture and feed quality. Conversely, in
the southern and central areas, rainfall during winter and spring has
resulted in a flush of pasture and consequently most stock are in good to
excellent condition for this time of the year. Many properties in the
channel country below Boulia have had a tremendous end to winter and will
only require follow up falls of rain during the next few months to secure a
season for next year.
Central Region: Extremes in temperature were also evident during the month
in the Central Region although stock condition held reasonably well in most
areas. Overall stock condition varies from poor to excellent depending on
locality and management. Reports of mortalities from the drought affected
areas were reasonably light but indications are that supplementary feeding
has increased markedly in all areas as is consistent with normal seasonal
practice. Some areas around Biloela with large quantities of standing dry
feed succumbed to fires during the month. However the rainfall which
occurred late in the month should generate pasture growth and offset the
damaging affects of these fires.
South East Region: Frosts which occurred late in winter affected pasture
quality in some areas and consequently a large amount of dry standing feed
of little nutritive value is currently available. To alleviate this
problem many graziers are electing to burn off areas to promote new pasture
growth and reduce the summer fire hazard. In some of the areas which
received above average winter rainfall much of the pasture has begun to
generate new shoots and some producers have indicated that cattle are
coming out of winter in the best condition for many years. Generally stock
condition varies between good and excellent and recent rainfall has
prompted many producers to cease supplementary feeding except for normal
seasonal practice.
South Region: Good winter and early spring rain across much of the Region
has resulted in the continued growth of winter clovers and herbage. This
has meant that the quality of available pasture has remained fairly high
during the last few months. Consequently, stock condition reflects the
availability of good quality pasture and the majority of stock throughout
the Region are in good to excellent condition. Numbers of stock yarded for
sales during the month have remained steady as producers are selectively
accessing markets due to good supplies of feed and depressed returns.
CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE
North Region: In the Bowen and Gumlu areas it appears that water quantity
will be adequate for the remainder of the 1996 season and consequently
prospects appear a little brighter than the previous three seasons.
Conversely water quality continues to present problems for farmers and
large areas of farming land are being fallowed for at least one year in
three to combat salinity problems resulting from irrigating with inferior
quality water. Rainfall during the month in these areas reduced the need
for irrigation in the short term but did not damage crops. On the
Tablelands lack of significant rainfall resulted in continued reliance on
irrigation to finish crops and pre-water ground for spring and summer
plantings. In the Ingham area dryland and partly irrigated cane crops
continue to be affected by dry weather and reductions in yield are expected
unless relief rainfall is experienced during October.
Central Region: September proved a mixed month for many farmers in the
Central Region. The full extent of frost damage to crops which occurred
during August has now become more evident as growers start harvesting
crops. This combined with significant rainfall across much of the grain
growing area late in the month resulted in further crop losses due to crop
lodging, and shot and sprung grain. In other areas widespread losses of
crops due to hail were reported but the full extent of all damage will not
be known until the harvest is complete. Whilst the rainfall during the
month was not welcomed with open arms by farmers in the middle of harvest,
it has proved beneficial to farmers with fallowed land and those looking to
plant spring and summer crops. Some farmers in the Region are continuing
to hedge their bets and undertake reduced plantings now in the hope that
further rainfall in December will provide another planting opportunity.
South East Region: With the full impact of the August frosts becoming
apparent this month it is thought that up to 20% of the Region's crop was
severely affected and another 20% to 30% mildly affected. Despite reduced
returns for frost damaged grain most farmers experienced an above average
season with rainfall in the central and north Burnett offsetting some of
the damage caused by the August frosts. The outlook for summer crops is
favourable with soil moisture levels remaining high and consequently crop
plantings have been good. In the horticultural areas conditions remain
favourable and many areas have benefited greatly from the rainfall
experienced during the month. In the sugar cane areas harvesting is in
full swing with only minor interruptions due to rainfall and consequently
crushing is around 50% complete.
South Region: The impact of the frosting which occurred throughout much of
the Region on the 20 and 21 August is now becoming more apparent as crops
near harvesting. It appears that the western areas have been more affected
than there eastern counterparts due to the advanced nature of the crops in
these areas. Estimates of damage range from 30% to 40% but the full impact
will not be known until the harvest has been completed. In some areas,
rainfall late in the month was accompanied by severe hail. Exact crop
losses will not be known for some time until harvest is in full swing.
Overall the majority of the cropping land in the Region has benefited
greatly from rainfall this month and prospects for summer plantings look
excellent. In the horticultural areas recent rainfall has reduced the need
for irrigation and consequently water supplies are still quite abundant.
Indications are that the vegetable and stone fruit crops in the Region
should exceed expectations and provide excellent returns for growers.
WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES
The latest Water Storage Report issued by the Department of Natural
Resources is attached for general information on water storage capacities
throughout the Sate
North Region: Due to the lack of significant rainfall during the month
underground and surface water supplies continue to decline. In the more
drought affected areas the incidence of stock water cartage is on the
increase as underground and surface supplies continue to recede.
Restrictions on irrigation continue in some areas with supplies in all
areas expected to decrease as temperatures increase with the onset of
summer and demand increases.
West Region: The availability of stock water in many areas of the Region
continues to be of concern, especially to the north of Longreach. Again
the cartage of water for stock is on the increase as supplies diminish and
temperatures increase. In much of the southern and central areas the
recent rainfall has replenished surface water supplies but their has been
little flow on effect to underground water. Widespread drought breaking
rain in the near future is needed to alleviate current water shortages in
many areas of the Region.
Central Region: Rainfall during the month did not result in any significant
stream flows in the Region except in some of the coastal streams.
Consequently water supply problems continue to be a problem in many areas.
Levels in minor storages on the Dawson, Mackenzie and Fitzroy rivers are in
seasonal decline while the major storages of Fairbairn and Callide Dams
have not received any inflow. Underground water supplies continue to fall
in most areas and this combined with the low water levels in the major
storages could result in some serious situations later in the year unless
widespread significant rainfall is experienced within the next few months.
South East Region: Stream flows have slowed considerably throughout most of
the Region but are consistent with normal seasonal occurrences. Ground
water levels throughout the Region remain variable and are not expected to
change until significant rainfall occurs. Storage levels in most of the
Region's dams and weirs remain good except for Cania , Fred Haigh and
Wuruma Dams which are all below 50% capacity.
South Region: Rainfall during the month reduced the need for irrigation in
most areas of the Region. Surface water storage levels remain high from
the excellent rainfall experienced earlier in the year although underground
supplies remain variable dependant on location. The levels of the Region's
major storages remain above 80% and stock water supplies are adequate for
the long term.
OUTLOOK
The average SOI for September was +6.2, while the average SOI for the 30
days ending 2 October was +6.7 (see attached graph). The SOI trend during
July-September was phase 2 (consistently positive).
The attached map shows the total rainfall over Queensland during September,
together with maps of rainfall relative to historical records for the last
three months and the last twelve months. Most climate forecast systems are
suggesting 'average to slightly above average' rainfall for the next three
months in Eastern Australia (see attached map). Thus the probability of
exceeding median rainfall in these areas, is about 65%. Exceptions are the
north-eastern quarter of Queensland , where probabilities are about 70%,
and 60% for the eastern parts of southern Queensland.
The attached maps show the probabilities of exceeding 50mm, 100mm and 200mm
of rainfall around Queensland over the next three months. The sea surface
temperature map for August, together with comments, is also attached.
Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY
Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454
National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)
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The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries. |
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