DROUGHT SITUATION REPORT
AUGUST 1997
Whilst useful rainfall occurred along much of the coastal
fringe, it was a relatively dry month for many inland areas with the exception
of some areas in north Queensland. Scattered falls also occurred throughout
the Burnett and some parts of Central Queensland but generally totals did not
exceed 20mm. Consequently the majority of the eastern Darling Downs, the Brisbane
and Burnett Valleys continue to experience declining seasonal conditions. Conversely
the majority of the south west, central west and north west of the State, with
the exception of the Flinders Shire, continue to experience an average to above
average season resulting from the good wet season and late Autumn rainfall experienced
in these areas.
During the month the remainder of Kingaroy and Nanango
Shires were declared drought stricken, effective from the 1 August 1997. This
means that 19 Shires and 2 part Shires are now officially drought declared along
with 315 Individually Drought Declared Properties (IDP+s) in 26 other Shires.
This represents approximately 10% of the State or 10,698 out of the 55,545 Department
of Primary Industries registered livestock enterprises.
RAINFALL
North Region: With the exception of some areas around the
Atherton Tablelands productive rainfall was generally confined to the coastal
fringe. During the month Babinda recorded 150mm, Innisfail 158mm, Tully 150mm,
Cairns 19mm, Townsville 21mm, Bowen 22mm, Charters Towers 6mm, Herberton 27mm,
and Malanda 29mm.
West Region: August again proved a very dry month for much
of the West Region with very little effective rainfall recorded. Rainfall recordings
during the month include: Barcaldine 21mm, Blackall 17mm, Charleville 6mm, Tambo
6mm, and Cunnamulla 1mm.
Central Region: Although isolated scattered rainfall occurred
in some inland centres of the Region during the month, generally the productive
total were confined to the coastal fringe. Totals during the month include:
Emerald 10mm, Mackay 62mm, Calliope 5mm, Gladstone 15mm, Banana 9mm, Clermont
24mm, Miriam Vale 13mm and Rockhampton 4mm.
South East Region: While some of the coastal centres of
the Region received useful totals during the month, the drought affected inland
areas are still awaiting a break in the season. Totals recorded during the month
include: Esk 1mm, Kingaroy 10m, Kilkivan 8mm, Kilcoy 4mm and Beaudesert 13mm.
On the coastal fringe Bundaberg received 4mm, Maryborough 25mm, Gympie 6mm,
Maroochydore 92mm, Nanango 16mm and Nambour 31mm.
South Region: Again this month very little effective rainfall
was recorded in the Region and consequently conditions continue to deteriorate
on the eastern Darling Downs. Totals recorded during the month include: Dalby
1mm, Oakey 1mm, Toowoomba 3mm, Allora 3mm, Clifton 1mm, Warwick 2mm, Stanthorpe
3mm, St George 1mm, Goondiwindi 3mm, Chinchilla 2mm, Taroom 18mm and Inglewood
3mm.
LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES
North Region: During the month all areas of the Region
experienced a haying off of standing pasture. Reports from some areas indicate
that much of the pasture still contains some green stems which will respond
quickly to rainfall. Generally stock condition has been maintained in most areas
although some lines of lactating cows have lost condition as is normal at this
time of the year without supplementation. Most of the Region is experiencing
its best season for a number of years with the exception of some properties
in the Burke Shire and others around Mt Coolon.
West Region: The effects of frosts and spoiling rain have
resulted in the usual deterioration of pasture quality in the central and south
west of the Region. In the north west pasture quality and quantity remains good
except for some properties in Flinders Shire which continues to experience drought
conditions. Stock condition varies across the Region according to pasture availability
and quality. While some lines of breeders have started to slip in condition
in the south west, the majority of stock in other areas are in fair to good
condition with the exception of the drought affected areas in the Flinders Shire.
Central Region: Due to the relatively mild winter conditions
to date the majority of the Region+s pasture reserves remain in fairly good
condition, although some areas which recorded below average rainfall are starting
to experience pasture shortages. There are abundant stands of pasture in many
areas although quality has deteriorated as is normal for this time of year.
Due to the availability of pasture, stock condition in most areas has generally
been maintained except for the coastal fringe. In these areas, lactating females
have fallen in condition due to the decline in pasture quality. Producers in
many areas throughout the Region have started to supplementary feed lines of
breeders in an effort to maintain their condition.
South East Region: Most areas in the Region still have
some pasture, but it is generally of low quality and has very little bulk. Generally
the quantity of remaining pasture varies greatly depending on stocking rates
and localised falls of rain. Stock condition is dependant on remanent pasture
and the degree of supplementation, but is generally on the decline. Low stock
numbers and short feed have helped maintain condition up to this point in time.
Drought feeding is on the increase as producers try to maintain stock condition
as several bad frosts during the month affected feed supplies by reducing the
protein levels of standing pasture.
South Region: Across much of the Region winter feed has
been adequate for stock demands but quality has suffered recently due to frosting.
The exception to this however is the eastern Darling Downs where feed is in
short supply and generally denuded in nature. The majority of remaining pasture
in all areas is of poor quality as is normal for this time of year and this
has had a detrimental effect on stock condition. Livestock overall are in below
average to average condition. There has been some reduction in stock numbers
as a result of deteriorating feed supplies, particularly in the Rosalie and
Wambo Shires where large numbers of stock have been sent to agistment and sale.
CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE
North Region: At Bowen and Gumlu, rainfall, overcast conditions,
wind and too much free moisture from light showers and heavy dews caused problems
with existing crops, and were detrimental to pollination and fruit set of mangoes.
Rain late in August continued the good season being experienced by dryland and
irrigated cropping on the Atherton Tableland, and in other areas such as Major
Creek and along the major streams such as the Burdekin river. With harvesting
under-way in northern cane growing areas, rainfall late in the month caused
some disruptions to harvesting which could ultimately impact on the final yields
of many crops.
Central Region: Due to relatively dry conditions experienced
in most areas of the Region during the month many wheat crops urgently require
rain. The early crops (planted around April) are now almost mature and should
yield reasonably well, as long as mice damage is controlled. Many of the later
planted crops were damaged by frosts during the last week of August but it will
be another week or two before the full extent of the damage is known. With spring
here many growers are considering Spring cropping options but the type of crop
planted and the degree of planting will be reliant on available soil moisture
levels.
South East Region: Due to poor subsoil moisture levels
at planting time only 40 to 50% of the local cropping area has been planted
to wheat and barley. With poor rainfall over the last few months, these crops
are struggling and their yields are expected to be well below average. Graingrowers
from the Kingaroy and Nanango areas have indicated that many crops are dying
and good rainfall now will not improve yields. On the coastal fringe the cane
crushing season has continued without interruption and with at least 30% of
the crop now harvested estimates indicate a similar season to last year. The
Gatton district has had a favourable season with mild conditions although the
recent dry spell has prompted the need for increased irrigation. In the Gayndah
and Mundubbera district there has been a very good season for citrus. Yields
have been average to above average and prices have held better than in previous
years.
South Region: The widespread winter plantings of wheat,
barley and chickpea across the Region require rainfall in the immediate future
to ensure that many crops reach a harvestable stage. In the western areas crops
require rainfall to maximise yields. There were only minor plantings of winter
crops on the Eastern Downs due to the lack of sub-soil moisture. Crops planted
with inadequate moisture profile have been feed off to stock. Due to mild winter
conditions many crops went to head earlier then normal and some of these were
affected by severe frosting on the 26th August. The full extent of the damage
will not be fully determined until 8 to 12 days from the frost. On the Granite
Belt the mild winter conditions have caused stone fruit crops to flower but
frosts are not expected to cause damage at this stage. However, in a couple
of weeks when the fruit sets, a severe frost could cause losses.
WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES
North Region: While some surface water supplies are drying
off particularly in the lower Etheridge and Bowen Shires, the majority of the
Region remains well placed for water supplies for the immediate future. The
Regions major water storages are close to capacity and should provide adequate
water for irrigation for a considerable period. Similarly underground supplies
in many areas appear to have made some recovery due to the excellent wet season
experienced earlier in the year.
West Region: The majority of the Region, with the exception
of the Flinders Shire, has adequate stock water supplies for the immediate future.
In the southern portion of Flinders Shire water supplies are beginning to deteriorate
rapidly and producers on some properties face a grim spring and summer period
unless early storms are experienced. The Regions major water storages still
have adequate supplies for the long term.
Central Region: Due to the lack of effective rainfall during
the month most of the Region+s stream flows and storage levels continued to
decline. Many of the major regulated supplies in the Region contain adequate
supplies for the short term but replenishment will be needed during the Summer
period. The exception to this is Callide Dam and Kroombit Dam which are 17.7%
capacity and 0% capacity respectively. Groundwater levels remain variable and
are dependant on rainfall occurrences earlier in the year. Most stock water
supplies appear adequate for the short term but supplies in some areas will
require replenishment during Spring to carry stock through the Summer period.
South East Region: There were no significant flows in any
of the Region+s streams this month. Ground water levels remain variable, but
generally on the decline. On Monal and Splinter Creeks groundwater levels are
very low with one bore 9 metres below the standing water level. In the Eidsvold
district it has been reported that underground water levels have fallen by up
to 10 metres. Many producers have noted that this is the worst water crisis
that they have seen in the South Burnett. In the central Lockyer Valley bore
levels along water courses are being maintained but bores further from creeks
are continuing to drop.
South Region: Ground water supplies and off stream storages
are adequate in most areas except for the eastern Darling Downs. In this area
surface water supplies have reached a critical level and many producers have
been forced to cart water for their stock. On some properties near the Great
Dividing Range ground water supplies have failed altogether and many producers
indicate that they have never experienced water shortages of this magnitude.
Conversely in the western areas surface water supplies for irrigation are secure
for the immediate future as are most of the Regions major water storages.
OUTLOOK
The average SOI for August was -18.7, while the average
SOI for the 30 days ending 3 September 1997 was -18.1. The SOI trend during
July - August was phase 3 (ie. falling). An El Nino has now developed in the
Pacific Ocean. Climate forecasts suggest that the chance of obtaining +average+
rainfall during the September - November period range from 20% to 50% over most
of Queensland and New South Wales. Exceptions include some areas in far western
Queensland where probabilities are about 65%.
The Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre advises that
although westerly wind anomalies in the equatorial regions weakened during July,
they have restrengthened during August, reinforcing the likelihood of the El
Nino pattern persisting until at least until the Autumn of 1998. The next passage
of the 30-to 50-day oscillation is expected during the second week of September.
The consistently negative SOI phase during April - May
indicates a higher probability than normal of late-season frost in some areas.
The chances of severe frosts are greater in southern inland regions of Qld and
northern inland districts of NSW.
Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY
Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454
National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)
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The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries. |
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