DROUGHT SITUATION REPORT
FEBRUARY 1997
Above average rainfall at the end of the month in the Mt
Isa and Cloncurry areas has resulted in major flooding in the Leichhardt and
Cloncurry River systems. Cyclones Gillian and Ita also caused flooding in the
Mackay and Moura areas earlier in the month. Above average rainfall at the end
of January and in the first few days February also caused major flooding in
the Blackall, Charleville and Cunnamulla areas. Elsewhere many parts of northern,
western and central Queensland received good falls of rain this month and consequently
are well placed for the winter months. Although most areas of the State have
received some rainfall in the last two months isolated pockets of country have
missed out and will need good rainfall during March to halt a return to drought
conditions. Areas around Dalby and Kingaroy and between Rockhampton and Marlborough
have received very little beneficial rainfall during the last two months and
require rain urgently to secure a season for 1997.
At the end of February, 17 Shires and 5 part Shires are
declared drought stricken along with 554 individually Drought Declared Properties
(IDP+s) in 32 other Shires. This represents approximately 22% of the State or
9260 out of the 55,545 Department of Primary Industries registered livestock
enterprises. Some Local Drought Committees (LDC+s) are expected to meet in April
to assess seasonal conditions.
RAINFALL
North Region: General monsoonal rain and the influence
of two cyclones has brought widespread rain to much of the Region. However a
section of Dalrymple Shire to the north of Charters Towers and Mingela, and
east of the Burdekin River is still to receive good rain. Similar conditions
also exist around Mutchilba and Dimbulah. During the month Cairns recorded 483mm,
Babinda 494mm, Innisfail 480mm and Tully 706mm. Lesser totals were; Townsville
393mm, Bowen 298mm, Charters Towers 109mm, Herberton 277mm, Malanda 214mm, Croydon
119mm and Mareeba 99mm.
West Region: Excellent rainfall occurred across much of
the Region during the month with the majority of watercourses and rivers experiencing
some form of flooding. This was apparent in the Blackall, Charleville and Cunnamulla
areas as a result of major flooding in the Warrego and Barcoo Rivers. During
the month Quilpie received 188mm, Birdsville 80mm, Charleville 258m, Blackall
195mm, Augathella 253mm, Longreach 72mm, Winton 145m, Aramac 78mm, Hughenden
67mm, Richmond 165mm, and Mt Isa 104mm.
Central Region: Useful rainfall was recorded in many parts
of the Region during the month. In the Moura and Mackay areas rainfall was very
intense and some properties recorded in excess of 300mm in three hours. Flooding
occurred in the Goovigen and Mackay areas and later in the Dawson and Fitzroy
Rivers as this water moved down the catchment. Totals for the month include
Alpha 186mm, Clermont 220mm, Emerald 63mm, Dingo 78mm, Springsure 167mm, Mackay
555mm, and Rockhampton 55mm.
South East Region: It was an extremely variable month for
rainfall across much of the Region. Generally the weather has been dry, but
isolated heavy falls have occurred in many areas. In general there are large
areas of the Burnett, Burnett coast, Mary Valley and Brisbane Valley that require
significant rainfall to compensate for the extremely dry conditions over the
last two months. Totals recorded in the Region during the month include: Eidsvold
220mm, Mundubbera 209mm, Esk 90mm, Kingaroy 65mm, Kilkivan 34mm, Gatton 67mm
and Beaudesert 114mm. On the coastal fringe Bundaberg received 112mm, Maryborough
85mm.
South Region: Extensive rainfall occurred across much of
the Region during the month but on the eastern downs falls were patchy and some
areas in the Bell and Maclagan area require rain urgently to alleviate dry conditions.
On the eastern Downs Dalby recorded 32mm, Clifton 72mm, Toowoomba 230mm, Warwick
90mm and Stanthorpe 112mm. On the western Downs and in the Maranoa, Roma received
203mm, Surat 121mm, Goondiwindi 207mm, St George 134mm and Inglewood 126mm.
LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES
North Region: Although still patchy, rainfall has tended
to fill in most of the problem areas and at least given them relief rain. Most
internal areas, with the exception of patches of country in Mareeba Shire and
an area north of Charters Towers in Dalrymple Shire, have received good rain
but follow up falls are needed during March to ensure adequate pasture and water
reserves for the rest of the year. Pasture has responded according to the amount
and frequency of rainfall and consequently most lines of stock are gaining condition.
West Region: Across much of the Region stock condition
is improving due to the pasture response to recent rainfall. Most lines of stock
are in fair to good condition while in the Charleville, Tambo, Blackall areas,
stock are in excellent condition due to the good rainfall and flooding earlier
in the month. In some areas of the north and north west pasture regeneration
has been varied due to the prolonged drought and patchiness of rainfall. On
some properties which have been denuded of vegetation for some time recent rainfall
has promoted the growth of Roly Poly and other annual species rather than Mitchell
Grass. This has caused concern in many circles as it is feared that this valuable
pasture may be lost permanently in some areas.
Central Region: Rainfall during the last few days of January
and through February has resulted in good pasture growth across much of the
Region with the exception of the Rockhampton, Gladstone and Capella areas which
have missed out on the better rainfall to date. In most areas stock condition
continues to improve and generally varies from good to excellent. In the areas
where limited rainfall has occurred, stock vary in condition from poor to fair
and will only improve after substantial rainfall.
South East Region: Due to the patchy nature of rainfall
during the last two months pasture condition varies markedly throughout the
Region. Pasture quantity is generally poor for this time of year but is of good
quality where good rain has fallen. The condition of most lines of stock is
generally being maintained but the hot dry conditions of the month have affected
stock to a certain extent. There has been renewed interest in IDP applications
and these will continue unless significant rainfall occurs during the next month.
South Region: Dry conditions prevailed around the Dalby
and Maclagan areas during the month with increased interest in IDP applications
from these areas. Elsewhere rainfall has been adequate with minor flooding around
the Goondiwindi area earlier in the month. Warm temperatures combined with good
rainfall have resulted in a flush of feed in most areas. Consequently stock
condition remains good in most areas with the exception of some parts of the
eastern Downs. Here cattle continue to slip in condition as feed supplies dwindle
and it is expected that drought feeding and/or movements to agistment will occur
unless good rainfall is received during March.
CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE
North Region: In the Bowen area the excellent rain in February
has continued the good start to the season. On the Atherton Tablelands, consistent
rain during the month has been ideal for soil moisture for the peanut and maize
crops and dairy pastures. There has also been good to heavy rain along the dry
tropical coast, north of Townsville and the prospects for dryland and irrigated
cropping in the Region are good following a wet February. Heavy rain was recorded
in most cane growing areas although a continuation of average or better rainfall
months will be needed where cane is irrigated to set up water supplies for the
second part of the year.
Central Region: Heavy rainfall in many of the farming areas
of the Region caused damage to existing crops as well as loss of top soil and
contour banks in some areas. With a significant area of fallow cultivation in
the final stages of preparation for wheat now without topsoil, planting in the
Dawson valley could be delayed somewhat. Severe soil loss was also reported
from some parts of the Callide valley, although over a much smaller area. In
both districts however, a full profile of moisture has enabled growers to consider
their options for the upcoming Winter season. Farmers south of Emerald have
enjoyed a better summer, however producers here are continuing to battle locusts,
with high populations of spur-throated and migratory locusts present between
Gindie and Orion.
South East Region: Summer crop yields across the region
will vary greatly. Generally it can be said that summer crop yields will be
well below early expectations. In the North Burnett rain came too late for many
crops and yields will be very low or crops will be fed off. In the Bundaberg
area the month has been very dry for sugar cane and vegetable growers who are
now also concerned about the low capacity of Fred Haigh Dam. In the Nambour
district the month started off dry, but there has since been good rain to such
an extent that it has caused problems with bacterial diseases in some crops.
Rainfall in the Lockyer and Fassifern Valleys has been adequate in the last
two months and production has been high.
South Region: Crop yields around the Dalby area are expected
to be significantly reduced if useful rainfall does not occur in the immediate
future. Conversely, recent rainfall in most other areas has proved a bonus for
cotton and sorghum growers and expectations point to good yields for many farmers
from these crops. Soil moisture levels are adequate in most areas with good
prospects for winter plantings. The Granite Belt received useful rainfall during
the month which reduced demand on irrigation supplies and assisted the growth
of fruit and vegetable crops.
WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES
North Region: Excellent rainfall in many parts of the Region
during February has continued the good start to the season, and generated good
flows in the major streams. Good flows in streams in the Bowen area has also
led to water harvesting opportunities for some farmers. Much needed recharge
of the groundwater system is also occurring in some areas however it will be
some time before the general effect on groundwater quantity and quality can
be quantified.
West Region: Excellent rainfall and flooding during the
month has dramatically improved surface water supplies across much of the Region.
Flooding occurred in most of the main watercourses during the month and accordingly
has replenished surface water supplies in most areas. Consequently current levels
should sustain normal demand for quite some time.
Central Region: The good rainfall which occurred in some
parts of the Region during the month resulted in moderate to high stream levels
in many of the Region+s watercourses which consequently raised the capacities
of associated storages. A strong inflow into Fairbairn Dam during the month
has ensured good irrigation supplies for 1997/98 water year. Rainfall and flooding
this month in the Mackay area has already led to a rise in the level of groundwater
supplies. A similar occurrence has not eventuated in the Rockhampton area and
the outlook remains gloomy unless significant rainfall occurs.
South East Region: Stream flows have varied considerably
across the Region during the month depending on rainfall. Many south coast streams
continue to run. In the Burnett, Reids Creek at Gayndah and the Burnett river
have had flows. The lack of substantial inflow into Fred Haigh and Waruma Dams
continues to be of major concern for irrigators in these areas. Ground water
levels in the Region remain variable and it is not expected that bore levels
will return to normal without prolonged rainfall.
South Region: Rainfall during the last two months has improved
water levels in both regulated and unregulated supplies across most of the Region.
As the demand for irrigation decreased during the month, due to rainfall, groundwater
supplies on the eastern Downs and Border Rivers appeared to have undergone some
degree of re-charge and consequently supplies remain satisfactory for the immediate
future.
OUTLOOK
The average SOI for February was +12.4, while the average
SOI for the 30 days ending 28 February was +14.8 (see attached graph). The SOI
trend during January-February was phase 4 (ie. rapidly rising). Climate forecasts
continue to suggest a high probability of near average rainfall for most of
Queensland during the March to May period.
Sea surface temperatures (SST) in the central equatorial
Pacific are now warmer than normal. In the eastern equatorial Pacific the temperature
of surface waters is still cooler than normal, but recent measurements suggest
that it is warming rapidly ie. the La Nina phase is on the wane. The next passage
of the 30-to 50-day oscillation is due approximately 7-14 April.
Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY
Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454
National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)
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The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries. |
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