DROUGHT SITUATION REPORT
JANUARY 1997
Near record rainfall at the end of the month resulted in
major flooding along the Barcoo, Warrego and Bulloo River systems and produced
minor flooding in the Thompson River and associated tributaries. Excellent rainfall
also fell in the drought affected areas of Jericho and Alpha causing flooding
in those centres. Whilst these areas of the State and much of the far north
recorded good rainfall totals during the month, many other areas experienced
patchy or non productive falls. In the south and south-east, rainfall was generally
patchy and below average and this combined with the high summer temperatures
has had a destructive effect on pastures in some areas and consequently some
properties are again becoming short of feed.
Although many of the drought affected Shires have received
good rainfall in the last two months these areas will require further good follow
up falls before Local Drought Committees will consider any revocations in late
March or April. Generally, a major portion of the State still requires good
general rainfall within the next two months to produce adequate pasture and
water reserves for the winter months, and alleviate the current drought conditions.
At the end of January, 17 Shires and 5 part Shires are
declared drought stricken along with 575 individually Drought Declared Properties
(IDP+s) in 32 other Shires. This represents approximately 22% of the State or
9547 out of the 55,545 Department of Primary Industries registered livestock
enterprises.
RAINFALL
North Region: The first signs of monsoonal rainfall occurred
across much of the region during the last few days of the month. Whilst this
has brought welcome relief to many drought affected areas, other properties
have missed out on beneficial rain and are still awaiting a seasonal break in
conditions. The majority of the Cape and the Gulf have received excellent rain
in the last two months and consequently are well placed for feed and water reserves
for this time of the year. During the month Cairns recorded 506mm, Babinda 728mm,
Innisfail 480mm and Tully 618mm. Lesser totals were; Townsville 122mm, Bowen
48mm, Charters Towers 63mm, Herberton 123mm, Malanda 178mm, Croydon 223mm and
Mareeba 174mm.
West Region: Rainfall varied greatly throughout the Region
with exceptional falls recorded in some centres late in the month. In other
areas, particularly in the north and the far west rainfall has been scattered
and very patchy with some properties missing out all together. During the month
Quilpie recorded 91mm, Birdsville 14mm, Charleville 131m, Blackall 180mm, Tambo
213mm, Augathella 217mm, Longreach 55mm, Winton 84mm, Aramac 137mm, Hughenden
80mm, Richmond 99mm, and Mt Isa 302mm.
Central Region: Flood rain in the far west of the Region
at the end of the month has eased drought conditions in the Jericho Shire but
the full effects of this rainfall will not be known for some time. Falls of
over 150 mm were common in many parts of the Shire although rainfall totals
trailed off towards eastern parts of the region. Much of the coastal area recorded
below to well below average rainfall. Totals for the month include Alpha 138mm,
Clermont 44mm, Emerald 64mm, Dingo 49mm, Springsure 122mm, Mackay 45m, and Rockhampton
28mm.
South East Region: January was an extremely dry month for
most of the inland centres with rainfall totals generally not exceeding 70mm.
During the month Eidsvold received 11mm, Mundubbera 25mm, Esk 40mm, Kingaroy
26mm, Kilkivan 42mm, Gatton 71mm and Beaudesert 47mm. On the coastal fringe
Bundaberg received 96mm, Maryborough 121mm, Pomona 149mm and Nambour 14mm.
South Region: Rainfall in the Region during the month was
scattered and very patchy with the majority of better totals occurring during
the last week. Some areas, particularly on the eastern Downs, have not received
any significant falls since prior to Christmas and consequently they are looking
for some relief to the current dry conditions. On the eastern Downs Clifton
recorded 30mm, Toowoomba 40mm, Warwick 4mm and Stanthorpe 21mm. On the western
Downs and in the Maranoa, Roma received 85mm, Surat 103mm, Dalby 7mm, Goondiwindi
92mm, St George 131mm and Inglewood 29mm.
LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES
North Region: Whilst the Cape, the Gulf and most of the
coastal fringe above Townsville have received good rainfall, some inland areas
have missed out on beneficial rainfall and consequently drought conditions still
prevail. A strip of country from Greenvale to Dotswood is one area which has
recorded limited rainfall and pasture in this area varies between poor and denuded.
With the recent rainfall in northern parts most lines of stock in these areas
have responded to the fresh pasture growth and are in fair to good condition.
In other areas, that have received limited or no rainfall, stock condition continues
to decline due to high temperatures and lack of feed and stock losses are still
occurring.
West Region: Pasture quality, quantity and consequently
stock condition varies greatly across the Region depending on recent rainfall.
In the areas which received rainfall during the last two months pasture response
has been quite good and accordingly stock condition has improved with the new
pasture growth. In some areas where the rainfall has been marginal or non-existent
stock condition varies from fair to poor. Some areas that have missed out on
productive rainfall include the Bedourie area and an area to the south of Longreach.
These areas contrast strongly to the Blackall/Tambo area which has had a tremendous
season and as a result stock are in prime condition.
Central Region: In the majority of the Region there was
not enough rainfall during the month to improve conditions from December 1996
and accordingly pasture hayed off considerably. Stock condition held reasonably
well in most areas although some lines of cattle on the coast deteriorated a
little from last month. No reports of drought feeding were received but reports
indicate that some graziers in western areas have started the return of cattle
to droughted properties to attempt to take advantage of the improvement in seasonal
conditions. This will pay dividends if further rain is received otherwise it
remains a short term strategy with questionable outcomes.
South East Region: Light but scattered rainfall during
the month combined with previous falls has resulted in only minor pasture growth
across much of the Region. Not withstanding this, the condition of most lines
of stock is holding in most areas except for the north Burnett. In this area
conditions have deteriorated further and some agistment movements have occurred
to properties in the Roma area. There have been no reports of supplementary
feeding outside of normal production and dry season supplementation, except
for the drought declared areas, but indications are that some graziers will
be forced to start feeding if good falls of rain are not recorded during February.
South Region: Many of the Shires on the eastern Downs are
experiencing a return to dry conditions which is evident by the number of IDP
enquiries fielded throughout the Region. Whilst most areas still have good reserves
of feed, remnant from last year, isolated areas are starting to run short of
feed and will need good rain during February to alleviate the situation. Throughout
much of the Region stock condition remains good to excellent, but in the areas
of reduced rainfall, stock condition is beginning to slip, hence the inquiry
for IDP+s.
CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE
North Region: With horticulture in the Bowen area between
seasons, farmers are awaiting the onset of good general rain to replenish surface
water and provide soil moisture for future plantings. On the Tablelands, storms
during the month have been timely for peanut and maize crops, many of which
were planted on marginal soil moisture. In the cane growing areas rainfall has
been welcomed and will reduce the demand on irrigation for quiet some time.
Central Region: January has seen little change in the drought
situation for the Callide and Dawson valleys. Dryland crops already in the ground
are now suffering from severe moisture stress, particularly in parts of the
Dawson valley where a number of sorghum crops may produce lower than expected
yields. Most areas of the Central Highlands have received some rain, with excellent
falls in the Orion/Rolleston area, south east of Springsure. Farmers in this
area who planted sorghum in December can now look forward to a reasonable yield
potential. Some of the spring sorghum crops received good in-crop rainfall and
went on to yield well.
South East Region: Summer grain plantings all but stopped
this month due to the dry conditions and these should not continue unless significant
rainfall occurs during February. The dry period has markedly affected crop yield
prospects for the season, especially in peanut and maize crops in the Kingaroy
area. Most of the sugar growing areas received sufficient rainfall this month
to ensure continued crop growth. Recent rainfall in the horticultural areas
has proved a bonus for growers although some tomato crops in the Bundaberg area
were affected by the dry spell earlier in the month.
South Region: Double cropping has been achieved across
much of the eastern Downs, with corn, sunflower and sorghum sown. The prospects
for irrigated cotton look bright this year with most water storages still close
to capacity. On the western Downs recent rainfall has salvaged sorghum crops
and allowed many growers to plant late summer crops. Crops throughout the area
may suffer yield reductions as a result of the recent dry spell and high temperatures.
On the granite belt the dry spell has resulted in increased demand on irrigation
supplies but generally it has been a favourable season for stonefruit and other
fruit varieties.
WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES
North Region: Rainfall towards the end of the month resulted
in flows in the Don River and Euri Creek system around Bowen and should provide
opportunities for water harvesting for some farmers. Elsewhere, surface water
supplies have been replenished where good rainfall has occurred but in other
areas stock water supplies have declined rapidly with the need for water cartage
still prevalent on some properties. There have been no reports of any replenishment
of underground supplies as yet and a good general wet season is required to
alleviate current shortages.
West Region: Recent rainfall has improved surface water
supplies across much of the Region except for the far west and south west. In
these areas, relief may come in the form of flows in the watercourses due to
rainfall in upstream areas but this will not benefit offstream storages. Underground
supplies in the Region appear adequate in the short term as do the levels in
most stock water dams.
Central Region: There were only recession flows during
the early part of the month in Waterpark Creek and it would appear that without
a good recharge there is a chance that the continually dropping baseflow will
fall below the record low of 1996. Substantial flooding commenced in the Alpha
to Jericho area late in the month and this will continue for several days due
to the slow nature of streams in that area. To date the +wet season+ has been
a non-event and consequently there has been virtually no recharge to the groundwater
resources in most of the Region.
South East Region: Stream flows varied considerably across
the Region depending on rainfall with the majority of inland streams drying
up considerably during the month while on the south coast many streams continue
to flow due to recent rainfall. The lack of any substantial inflow into Fred
Haigh and Wuruma Dams is of concern with these facilities currently well below
capacity. The groundwater situation remains variable throughout the Region and
it is not expected that bores will return to normal levels without prolonged
rainfall.
South Region: High temperatures combined with reduced rainfall
across much of the region led to increased demand on irrigation supplies this
month. Stock and unregulated water storages are generally satisfactory across
much of the Region as is the storage levels of most of the major dams. Underground
supplies remain variable on the eastern Downs but are generally satisfactory
throughout the rest of the Region.
OUTLOOK
The average SOI for January was +3.5, while the average
SOI for the 30 days ending 31 January was +5.4 (see attached graph). The SOI
trend during December - January was phase 2 (ie. positive). Climate forecasts
continue to suggest a high probability of near average rainfall for most of
Queensland during the February to April period. The attached maps show the probabilities
of exceeding 50mm, 100mm and 200mm of rainfall around Queensland over the next
three months.
The attached map shows the total rainfall over Queensland
during January, together with maps of rainfall relative to historical records
for the last three months and the last twelve months.
The sea surface temperature map for December, together
with comments, is also attached. Sea surface temperatures (SST) in the Coral
Sea during January were cooler than normal, this probably reduced rainfall along
the eastern seaboard. SST+s are warmer than normal in a large band across the
southern-central and southern-eastern Pacific Ocean, including the region adjacent
to the Chilean coast. However, tropical regions still reflect a La Nina system
with cool anomalies in the eastern Pacific and warm anomalies in the west. The
next passage of the 30-to 50-day oscillation will be approximately within the
period of 1-10 March.
Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY
Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454
National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)
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The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries. |
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