DROUGHT SITUATION REPORT
MARCH 1997
Over the weekend of the 22 and 23 March 1997 Tropical Cyclone
Justin caused widespread damage between Cooktown and Townsville and inland on
the Atherton Tablelands. Rainfall resulting from the cyclone caused major flooding
along the coastal fringe and in some areas of the Tablelands. Major flooding
also occurred in the Cloncurry and Mount Isa areas early in the month resulting
from record rainfall in the catchment areas of the Leichhardt, Cloncurry and
Wills River systems. Although most areas of the State have received beneficial
rainfall during the last three months, some areas have either missed out on
productive rainfall or received temporary relief at best. Areas around Dalby,
the Kilkivan/Nanango area of the South Burnett and around Esk in the Brisbane
Valley have received very little productive rainfall during the last three months
and require rainfall urgently to secure pasture and water reserves for the winter
months.
At the end of March, 17 Shires and 5 part Shires are declared
drought stricken along with 524 individually Drought Declared Properties (IDP+s)
in 33 other Shires. This represents approximately 22% of the State or 9230 out
of the 55,545 Department of Primary Industries registered livestock enterprises.
Some Local Drought Committees (LDC+s) are expected to meet during April to assess
seasonal conditions.
RAINFALL
North Region: During the month rainfall in the Region ranged
from average to above average in most inland areas while flooding occurred along
much of the eastern coast. The area between Mingela and Greenvale and between
Mutchilba and Dimbulah which had missed out on beneficial rainfall prior to
this month finally received some relief from Cyclone Justin. During the month
Babinda recorded 588mm, Innisfail 620mm and Tully 818mm. Lesser totals were
Cairns 342mm, Townsville 429mm, Bowen 268mm, Charters Towers 145mm, Herberton
455mm, Malanda 391mm, and Mareeba 297mm.
West Region: Excellent rainfall occurred in many parts
of the Region during the month especially in the north west. Record rainfall
in the Cloncurry and Mount Isa areas resulted in major flooding in the Leichhardt,
Cloncurry and Wills Rivers causing stock losses and damage to fencing along
these watercourses. Minor flooding also occurred in the Flinders and Gilliat
Rivers as well as Cooper Creek and associated tributaries. During the month
Quilpie received 50mm, Birdsville 0.4mm, Charleville 73mm, Blackall 86mm, Augathella
31mm, Longreach 84mm, Winton 11mm, Hughenden 71mm, Richmond 90mm, Cloncurry
194mm and Mt Isa 291mm.
Central Region: Useful rainfall was recorded in many parts
of the Region during the month, largely due to the influence of Cyclone Justin.
Best falls occurred in the eastern and northern parts of the Region where the
influence of the cyclone was the greatest. Totals for the month include Alpha
25mm, Clermont 74mm, Emerald 64mm, Dingo 136mm, Springsure 50mm, Mackay 248mm,
and Rockhampton 151mm.
South East Region: March again was an extremely variable
month for rainfall across the Region. Generally the weather has been dry, but
isolated heavy falls occurred in some areas. In general there are large areas
of the Burnett, Burnett coast, Mary Valley and Brisbane Valley that require
significant rainfall to rectify the current rainfall deficit. Totals recorded
in the Region during the month include: Eidsvold 38mm, Mundubbera 84mm, Esk
16mm, Kingaroy 23mm, Kilkivan 41mm, Gatton 11mm and Beaudesert 11mm. On the
coastal fringe Bundaberg received 103mm, Maryborough 68mm and Nambour 271mm.
South Region: Useful rainfall was recorded across much
of the Region during the month with the exception of some parts of the Eastern
Downs between Dalby and Oakey and east to the Bunya Mountains. In these areas
rainfall has either been extremely patchy or virtually non existent and consequently
rainfall is required urgently to alleviate the rainfall deficit in these areas.
Rainfall totals on the eastern Downs during the month include Dalby 6mm, Toowoomba
16mm, Warwick 18mm and Stanthorpe 26mm. On the western Downs and in the Maranoa,
Roma received 39mm, Surat 47mm, Goondiwindi 13mm, St George 49mm and Inglewood
9mm.
LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES
North Region: Most areas of the Region have now received
average to above average rainfall and consequently overall conditions are their
best since 1991. Pasture has responded well to recent rainfall and accordingly
stock are also improving with most lines of stock in fair to good condition.
Some areas that have been badly drought affected for a number of years understandably
have responded more slowly than other areas and it will take a run of at least
average rainfall for the next few seasons to return pasture levels to pre-drought
condition.
West Region: Although good to excellent rainfall occurred
in the north west of the Region many other areas received either scattered or
light falls of rain which shortened the growing season for many types of native
pasture. Consequently the protein level of grasses in some areas maybe quite
low going into winter which could affect stock condition if protein supplementation
does not occur. Generally the majority of the Region is in the best condition
it has been in for a number of years and stock condition varies from good to
excellent. Areas that have missed out on productive rainfall include the area
between Birdsville and Bedourie and south of Cunnamulla. Some properties in
these areas have benefited from the effects of flooding along the watercourses
which should provide adequate pasture for the short term.
Central Region: Widespread rainfall across much of the
Region during the last three months has resulted in a continued improvement
in pasture and stock condition in most areas. The exception to this remains
the area between Capella and Marlborough which has received only isolated scattered
falls to date which will provide temporary relief at best. Coastal areas affected
by drought for a number of years have received some rainfall to date but pasture
response has been varied. Most areas currently have an abundance of green feed
but in some areas pasture quantity later in the year will become a problem unless
winter rainfall occurs.
South East Region: Pasture condition varies markedly throughout
the Region but is generally of good quantity and quality where significant rainfall
has fallen. In areas that have received minor rainfall or have missed out altogether
pasture quantity is generally poor and some stock movements to agistment have
been reported from the Burnett. Stock condition reflects pasture availability
with some lines of stock in the drier areas beginning to lose condition. Overall
stock condition varies from fair to good depending on rainfall.
South Region: Dry conditions continued in many areas of
the Eastern Downs during the month. A number of IDP declarations were granted
in the Rosalie and Maclagan areas. There have been reports of increased numbers
of stock being fed and sent to agistment from this area and this trend is expected
to continue unless beneficial rainfall occurs in the immediate future. Generally
most of the Region has received adequate rainfall for the short term and consequently
pasture growth and stock condition are being maintained
CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE
North Region: Cyclone Justin caused major damage to Banana
and Paw Paw crops on the coast above Townsville. It also caused major damage
to maize crops on the Atherton Tablelands. Flood waters resulting from the cyclone
caused damage to some areas of sugar cane on the coastal fringe as well as damage
to vegetable crops in the Bowen and Gumlu areas. The upside of the cyclone is
that most of the cropping and horticultural areas in the north now have excellent
surface water reserves as well as good soil moisture for future plantings. Conditions
for horticulture especially in the Bowen area have not been as good since the
early 1990+s.
Central Region: Rainfall during the month interrupted the
cotton and summer grain harvest in some areas but generally the benefits of
the rain should far outweigh the negative aspects. With many of the farming
areas currently experiencing full soil moisture profiles, expectations point
to a very good season for winter crops. Some growers in the Region have taken
the opportunity to plant early wheat varieties on good moisture levels after
the limited opportunity for summer crops. Heavy rainfall during February in
the Bauhinia area resulted in loss of valuable topsoil on some properties reducing
the growers ability to plant crops in the immediate future.
South East Region: Generally it can be said that summer
crop yields will be well below early expectations and will vary greatly across
the Region.. The peanut harvest has commenced in the Kingaroy area but growers
in the Kumbia area have been forced to feed many crops to cattle due to lack
of rainfall. In the North Burnett rain came too late for many crops and yields
will be low or crops will be fed off. Rainfall in the Bundaberg area continues
to be patchy and generally it has been a dry month for sugar cane and vegetable
growers with yields in both sectors expected to be reduced.
South Region: With the harvest of summer grain varieties
and cotton in full swing in most areas the recent reduced rainfall totals have
been welcomed by farmers on the Eastern Downs. In other areas rainfall has been
welcomed by farmers looking for a good level of soil moisture for winter plantings.
Areas around Dalby remain dry and require rainfall urgently to provide a good
soil moisture profile for winter plantings. The Granite Belt received some useful
rain during the month which lessened the demand on irrigation supplies and prospects
look bright for winter vegetable and fruit production.
WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES
The latest Water Storage Report issued by the Department
of Natural Resources is attached for general information on water storage capacities
throughout the State.
North Region: Flooding in many areas resulting from Cyclone
Justin has boosted water levels in most of the Regions regulated storages and
consequently many are at capacity or close to it. Many areas with the exception
of some parts of the Cook Shire have adequate stock water reserves for the immediate
future. Reports of rises in groundwater levels from some areas have also been
received but it will take an extended wet period to return all underground supplies
to pre-drought levels.
West Region: The excellent rainfall and flooding which
occurred in many parts of the Region during the last three months has ensured
surface water supplies are adequate for the immediate future. Most stock water
dams have been replenished as have waterholes along most of the Regions watercourses.
The regulated storages are at capacity and should prove adequate for the rest
of the year.
Central Region: Rainfall during the last three months has
resulted in major inflows into most of the Regions water storages and most controlled
supplies are close to capacity. The exceptions to this are Fairbairn Dam at
67% capacity and Kroombit and Callide Dams at below 20% capacity. Generally
stock water supplies and off stream farm storages are adequate for the short
term. There has been very little recharge of underground supplies in the Region
and a good general wet season is needed to restore supplies to pre-drought levels.
South East Region: Stream flows in the Region varied considerably
during the month depending on rainfall. The Mary River had a substantial flow
during the month but given the patchy nature of the rainfall to date, most stream
and water storage levels remain low. The lack of substantial inflow into Fred
Haigh and Waruma Dams continues to be of major concern for irrigators in these
areas. Ground water levels in the Region remain variable and it is not expected
that bore levels will return to normal without prolonged rainfall.
South Region: Regulated and unregulated supplies across
most of the Region have received some inflow during the last two months and
consequently levels remain secure for the immediate future. Leslie Dam has the
lowest capacity of the Regions storages at 79% of capacity. Rainfall during
February and March reduced the demand on underground supplies in many areas
and consequently there was a corresponding rise in bore water levels on the
Eastern Downs and Border Rivers areas.
OUTLOOK
The average SOI for March was -7.0, while the average SOI
for the 30 days ending 31 March was -10.7. The SOI trend during February-March
was phase 3 (ie. rapidly falling). Climate forecasts suggest that the chance
of obtaining +average+ rainfall during the April-June period is now about 30%
for some areas of the State, especially parts of the south-east and the central
west. Conversely, parts of the eastern Darling Downs, Granite Belt, Boonah district
have probabilities of about 65%.
Sea surface temperatures (SST) in the central and eastern
equatorial Pacific Ocean continue to warm while they continue to cool in the
Coral Sea and the western Pacific. In addition, the average wind direction in
northern Australia is now westerly. The next passage of the 30-to 50-day oscillation
is due during the first two weeks of April.
Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY
Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454
National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)
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The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries. |
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