DROUGHT SITUATION REPORT
MAY 1997
Widespread rainfall was recorded across much of central,
western and southern Queensland during month. Falls were patchy but generally
any totals above 25mm have proved beneficial due to the warm conditions that
have prevailed across much of the State to date. While the drought affected
areas of the Burnett, eastern Darling Downs and central Queensland did record
useful totals generally, the falls were not sufficient to alleviate the drought
conditions. Useful falls later in the month in the Channel Country and the far
south west should generate winter herbage and prove a bonus for graziers in
these areas.
During the month the Shires of Kilkivan and Murgon were
drought declared as of the 1 May 1997 and an area in both Kingaroy and Nanango
Shires was drought declared as at 1 June 1997. Therefore at 4 June 1997, 15
Shires and 4 part Shires are declared drought stricken along with 255 Individually
Drought Declared Properties (IDP+s) in 25 other Shires. This represents approximately
10% of the State or 7,352 out of the 55,545 Department of Primary Industries
registered livestock enterprises.
RAINFALL
North Region: Useful rainfall totals were recorded across
much of the Region during the month except for the Gulf Country. The better
totals generally occurred on the coastal fringe. During the month Babinda recorded
151mm, Innisfail 186mm, Tully 72mm, Cairns 43mm, Townsville 49mm, Bowen 34mm,
Charters Towers 48mm, Herberton 60mm, Malanda 66mm, and Mareeba 59mm.
West Region: Some very useful rainfall fell in the Region
during the month, but the drought affected area to the south of Hughenden missed
out on any productive falls. Rainfall recordings during the month included:
Hughenden 14mm, Winton 64mm, Isisford 50mm, Longreach 44mm, Blackall 45mm, Tambo
54mm, Birdsville 35mm, Windorah 27mm, Quilpie 53mm, Charleville 55mm, and Cunnamulla
30mm.
Central Region: Scattered, patchy rainfall fell across
the Region during the month with totals varying greatly between centres. Generally
the better falls were confined to the coastal fringe. Totals during the month
include: Clermont 29mm, Emerald 32mm, Springsure 37mm, Mackay 141mm, Calliope
77mm, Gladstone 118mm, Banana 30mm, Miriam Vale 79mm, Alpha 25mm and Rockhampton
15mm.
South East Region: May saw the continuation of scattered,
patchy rainfall in the Region. Some centres recorded useful totals but these
were generally confined to the coastal hinterland. Totals recorded during the
month include: Eidsvold 12mm, Mundubbera 44mm, Esk 51mm, Kingaroy 43m, Kilkivan
36mm, Gatton 47mm and Beaudesert 129mm. On the coastal fringe Bundaberg received
96mm, Maryborough 114mm, Gympie 98mm and Nambour 261mm.
South Region: While much of the Region recorded useful
totals during the month, very little effective rainfall was recorded on the
north eastern Darling Downs. Consequently these areas continue to deteriorate
and rainfall is needed urgently to alleviate the current rainfall deficit. Rainfall
totals recorded during the month include: Dalby 72mm, Oakey 37mm, Toowoomba
59mm, Warwick 46mm, Stanthorpe 63mm, St George 85mm, Goondiwindi 98mm, Chinchilla
97mm, Roma 69mm and Inglewood 85mm.
LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES
North Region: Rainfall during the month enhanced conditions
for the grazing industry, generating fresh pasture growth in many areas. However
there are dry patches of country in Burke, Dalrymple and Bowen Shires. Generally
though most of the Region is in the best condition that it has been in since
1991. Stock in most areas are in excellent condition and most producers, apart
from those in the dry areas, should have adequate pasture reserves till the
end of the year.
West Region: Average to above rainfall was recorded throughout
much of the Region during the month with the exception of northern areas. Southern
parts of the Region received some useful falls of rain that should generate
winter herbage and prove a bonus for graziers. In some areas particularly in
the Mitchell Grass country, falls of below 25mm may prove harmful to standing
pasture later in the season depending on the severity of winter. Generally though,
most of the Region except for the country to the south of Hughenden, has an
abundance of good quality pasture and accordingly stock are in good to excellent
condition.
Central Region: Overall, cattle throughout most of the
Region are in good to excellent condition mainly due to the low stocking rates
forced on property owners by the prolonged drought. Pasture is abundant in most
areas but it has hayed off somewhat as is normal for this time of year. Isolated
dry patches exist in some areas and this is especially evident around Marlborough.
Sub soil moisture is low in many areas and this may affect pasture retention
in the coming months if no further rain is received.
South East Region: Pasture quality and quantity vary markedly
across the Region depending on rainfall. Generally pasture is of good quality
where rain has fallen but insufficient bulk exists in most areas to carry producers
through winter without follow up. Stock condition varies according to pasture
availability and quality but generally condition is being maintained in most
areas due to low stock numbers and some green shoot generated by recent rainfall.
Drought movements to sale and agistment are on the increase as is the incidence
of drought feeding. Many producers are reluctant to feed stock due to the low
returns for beef at present.
South Region: Pasture supplies are adequate in most areas
of the Region except for the north eastern section of Darling Downs. There has
been some lightening off stock in the areas that have missed out on productive
rainfall, especially in the Rosalie and Wambo Shires. Stock from these Shires
have been sent to agistment in the Meandarra, Tara, Roma and Moonie areas. Drought
feeding has not been necessary in most areas of the Region, however, it has
commenced in the eastern Darling Downs and will increase if follow up rain does
not eventuate.
CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE
North Region: Useful rainfall along the coastal fringe
and on the Atherton Tablelands during the month had positive and negative effects
for farmers. At Bowen the rain caused delays to planting and harvesting as well
as downgrading of some produce. On the Atherton Tablelands conditions for dryland
and irrigated cropping continue to be good, however there was a down side to
the recent rainfall in terms of nitrogen leaching, erosion and delays to harvesting.
In the sugar cane areas conditions since Cyclone Justin have been excellent
and there is the potential for a big crop this year.
Central Region: Reasonable rainfall around the middle of
the month triggered widespread planting, with wheat the most common crop planted.
The wheat crops planted during the previous month are now looking good, with
rain arriving just at the right time in many cases. With most winter crops now
having a full profile of moisture, the prospects of a good wheat season, will
make a lot of growers happy. The harvest of the later summer crops draws to
a close with good yields reported in sorghum and sunflower crops.
South East Region: With the harvest of summer crops all
but complete in the Region reports indicate that yields are well below early
expectations due to the dry summer period. All cropping areas are now waiting
on adequate rainfall to plant winter crops, although some areas have been planted
to wheat, oats and barley in the hope that early winter rainfall will eventuate.
Significant rainfall during the month in the Bundaberg area has improved the
outlook for cane growers dramatically and indications point to a good season
in that area. The Lockyer Valley has had a dry start to the winter season and
good falls are required in this area to reduce the current rainfall deficit.
South Region: There has been widespread winter planting
as a consequence of falls of 25mm to 75mm during the month. Wheat has been planted
on a large scale except for the eastern Darling Downs because of lack of sub
soil moisture and the threat of frost during flowering stage. Subsoil moisture
levels are reasonable across much of the Region but certainly not full profile
in the north east portion. On the Granite Belt, stone fruit crops have entered
the winter dormancy period but good winter rainfall is required to ensure adequate
irrigation supplies will be available for spring and summer production.
WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES
North Region: Rainfall in the Bowen area during the month
resulted in flows in Euri Creek and the Don River. Overall, apart from areas
of the Gulf, surface water storages, regulated and unregulated, appear adequate
for the immediate future. Both Burdekin Falls and Tinaroo Dams are at capacity
which is good news for irrigators reliant on these storages.
West Region: Surface water supplies across the Region appear
adequate for the immediate future with the exception of the Hughenden area.
Most streams in the Region received some flow earlier in the year as did most
of the stock water dams. Regulated storages are at capacity and should prove
adequate for the rest of the year. Reports indicate that underground supplies
are holding and appear safe for the immediate future.
Central Region: The onset of winter sees the Central Region
still a patchwork of varying water situations. During the month there were good,
fair and poor levels of rainfall. Rainfall during the month generally produced
very little runoff and consequently apart from a small flow down the Connors
River the only other flow of note was in Waterpark Creek. Groundwater levels
throughout the region remain low or very low with few exceptions. The rainfall
to date has been insufficient to produce any big gains in underground water
this year.
South East Region: Rainfall during the month did not produce
any significant stream flow in the Region apart from isolated flows along the
coastal fringe. Groundwater levels remain variable in most parts of the Region
and reports indicate that bore levels in some parts of the Lockyer Valley have
fallen due to the dry conditions currently experienced in that area. Stock water
supplies vary greatly from one area to the next, with some graziers in the Manumbar
resorting to water cartage to supply their stock. Reports also indicate that
drilling for underground water has increased in some areas of the Burnett as
producers try to supplement dwindling water supplies.
South Region: Surface water supplies are adequate in most
areas with the exception of parts of the eastern Darling Downs. Regulated and
unregulated storages capacities are adequate due to significant inflow over
the summer period. Groundwater supplies in the main are adequate over much of
the Eastern Downs and Border Rivers with most aquifers recording substantial
recharge since late 1995.
OUTLOOK
The average SOI for May was -18.7, while the average SOI
for the 30 days ending 4 June 1997 was -21.3. The SOI trend during April - May
was phase 1 (ie. negative). Climate forecasts suggest that the chance of obtaining
+average+ rainfall during the June - August period range from 10% to 30% over
most of southern and central Queensland.
Persistent strongly negative SOI values, and the continued
deterioration in the sea-surface temperature patterns in the Pacific Ocean,
indicate a high probability of below average rainfall in many districts of eastern
Australia for the remainder of 1997. An El Nino has now developed in the Pacific
Ocean. The next passage of the 30-to 50-day oscillation is expected during the
fourth week of June.
The consistently negative SOI phase during April-May indicates
a higher probability than normal of late-season frost in some areas. The chances
of severe frosts are greater in southern inland regions of Qld and northern
inland districts of NSW.
Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY
Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454
National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)
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The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries. |
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