DROUGHT SITUATION REPORT
OCTOBER 1997
Widespread rainfall fell across much of the State during
the month with the better totals occurring on the northern coastal fringe, in
scattered areas of Central Queensland and in the south and south east corner.
There was no productive rainfall in the north west and consequently Flinders
Shire and some sections of Burke Shire continue to experience declining seasonal
conditions. This pattern is also mirrored in some areas of Central Queensland
where recent rainfall has either been non-existent or very patchy. Many of the
areas in the southern part of the State that had received rainfall in late September
received follow up falls during the month and pasture and cropping have responded
accordingly. Areas in the Channel Country and around Charleville and Blackall
also received good rainfall which continues the excellent year commenced with
flooding in January and February of this year. Unfortunately, further to the
south between Cunnamulla and Thargomindah conditions continue to decline due
to the lack of effective rainfall.
Currently 21 Shires and 2 part Shires remain drought declared
along with 565 Individually Drought Declared Properties (IDP+s) in 31 other
Shires. This represents approximately 10% of the State or 10,892 out of the
55,545 Department of Primary Industries registered livestock enterprises.
RAINFALL
North Region: It was a mixed bag for rainfall in the North
Region during the month but generally the larger totals occurred on the coastal
fringe. During the month Babinda recorded 114mm, Innisfail 59mm, Tully 27mm,
Townsville 8mm, Bowen 4mm, Charters Towers 1mm, Herberton 15mm, Lucinda 10mm,
Giru 124mm, Ayr 48mm, Mount Garnet 23mm and Malanda 12mm.
West Region: Productive rainfall during the month was generally
confined to south and south west parts of the Region. Rainfall recorded during
the month includes: Barcaldine 14mm, Blackall 8mm, Charleville 68mm, Tambo 64mm,
Longreach 18mm, Isisford 9mm, Birdsville 14mm, Dajarra 1mm, Thargomindah 21mm
and Cunnamulla 10mm.
Central Region: Scattered rainfall occurred across much
of the Region during the month with some very useful totals recorded in some
centres. Unfortunately many totals did not exceed 10mm and consequently were
of little value. Totals during the month include: Emerald 4mm, Mackay 30mm,
Gladstone 36mm, Banana 59mm, Capella 5mm, Clermont 24mm, Miriam Vale 19mm, and
Rockhampton 4mm.
South East Region: Most centres in the Region received
good rainfall during the month, which will further boost crop and pasture production
generated by rainfall in late September. Totals recorded during the month include:
Beaudesert 110mm, Esk 116mm, Gatton 102mm, Kingaroy 119mm, Nanango 57mm, Kilkivan
45mm, Gayndah 77mm, Eidsvold 62mm and Mundubbera 61mm. On the coastal fringe
Bundaberg received 11mm, Maryborough 50mm, Gympie 64mm, Maroochydore 126mm,
and Nambour 134mm.
South Region: Some excellent totals were recorded across
most of the Darling Downs, the Maranoa and Warrego districts during the month.
Totals recorded during the month include: Dalby 94mm, Oakey 88mm, Toowoomba
97mm, Allora 150mm, Clifton 136mm, Stanthorpe 97mm, St George 100mm, Goondiwindi
106mm, Chinchilla 107mm, Taroom 62mm, Roma 52mm, Mitchell 65mm and Inglewood
73mm.
LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES
North Region: With the exception of the coastal areas to
the north of Townsville the majority of the Region continued to experience dry
conditions during the month although some isolated areas did receive useful
storm rain. Pasture supplies continue to decline in quality and quantity in
most areas and consequently many producers have resorted to supplementary feeding
to maintain stock condition. Stock condition varies according to the quality
of remaining pasture and the degree of supplementation. Most lines of lactating
females have slipped in condition as is normal for this time of the year but
generally stock are in fair to good condition. Large areas of country in the
Gulf and the Cape have been burnt in the hope that early storms will generate
some fresh green pick.
West Region: Pasture quality and quantity continued to
decline in most areas of the Region except for those areas which received useful
rainfall during September/October. Conditions continue to decline in much of
the Flinders Shire while further west the majority of Shires continue to experience
an average to above average season. Similarly much of the Channel Country and
the central west are also experiencing good seasons. Stock condition varies
depending on the availability and quality of remanent pasture and the degree
of supplementation being undertaken.
Central Region: Pasture condition varies across the Region,
from a good body of green feed in the Bauhinia and Springsure areas to denuded
in the Clermont district. Generally over the bulk of the area stock have continued
to slip in condition, but there are isolated areas where stock have picked up
because of the recent rain. The trend to supplementary feeding has continued
in some districts, as graziers look to provide their livestock with protein,
which is lacking in much of the pasture as is normal for this time of the year.
A feature of the month has been the amount of pasture that has gone up in smoke.
This is not unexpected as many properties are well behind in their timber regrowth
control programs, and others feel that it is better to try for fresh green feed
rather than persevere with old dry grass with little nutritive value.
South East Region: The good rainfall experienced in many
areas of the Region has produced a good response in pastures, although follow
up falls are required to continue this trend. The short green feed in some areas
has now started to hold stock condition and consequently movements of stock
to sale and slaughter have slowed as most producers have now reduced numbers
to adequate levels. Drought feeding is still occurring on a number of properties
but if present conditions continue it would be expected that drought feeding
will decrease in all but the drier areas of the North Burnett.
South Region: The recent rainfall experienced in many areas
of the Darling Downs has generated a good level of pasture growth but follow
up falls will be required to improve pasture bulk. The fresh flush of green
feed has resulted in some improvement in stock condition as animals come out
of a predominantly dry winter period. On the Western Downs areas and in the
Maranoa standing feed carried over through the winter months but as expected
the nutritive value of this feed is quite low. Overall, livestock in the Region
range from below average to average condition.
CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE
North Region: The relatively good season for fruit and
vegetable producers at Bowen continued this month with the cooler nights and
lack of spoiling rain assisting production. Similarly, Atherton Tablelands growers
have also experienced an average to above average season although cool winter
conditions delayed the start of the tobacco harvest. Rainfall is required in
the horticultural areas within the next few weeks to enable the planting of
summer crops and assist those which have already been planted. In the cane growing
areas, harvesting is nearing completion, although rainfall has caused delays
in some areas.
Central Region: The majority of the Region+s wheat harvest
is now finished. Yields were variable, with many early crops generally yielding
better than expected. Due to the lack of effective rainfall in most areas their
has been very little summer crop planted in the Region. The exception to this
is of course the irrigated cotton areas where quite substantial areas have been
planted. On the Coast around 90% of the 1997 sugar crop has been processed,
with ccs, at 14.31, about 0.75 units up on the same time last year, thanks again
to continued dry conditions.
South East Region: The rainfall in late September and during
October has sparked major planting+s of sorghum and corn throughout the Region.
There is adequate subsoil moisture in most areas to get crops going but further
falls will be needed to ensure continued success of the crops. The Gatton district
has had a favourable season for vegetables with relatively mild conditions and
no real damage from frosts. In the Bundaberg district tomatoes, capsicum, button
squash and zucchinis have been planted but concerns are still for the lack of
irrigation water supplies in the coming season. The sugar harvest is well under
way and is expected to be completed in the last week of November.
South Region: The wheat harvest is well under way across
much of Southern Queensland with excellent yields reported from some areas.
Frost damage appears to have been minimal, although some crops on the Western
Downs have experienced problems with sprouted grain due to the recent rainfall.
There has been a good start to the Summer growing season due to the widespread
rainfall during the month with above average planting+s of cotton and sorghum.
On the Granite Belt, stone fruits, grapes and apples have also benefited from
the recent rainfall and should go through to harvest without irrigation water
problems.
WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES
North Region: In the Bowen area underground water supplies
have improved dramatically from the levels experienced in the early to mid 90+s,
although some supplies still have not recovered fully to pre-drought levels.
Rainfall in many of the cane growing areas during the month reduced the need
for irrigation in some areas, although the wind and warmer temperatures increased
the need for irrigation in others. Stock water supplies continue to decline
in many areas as evaporation and increased consumption take their toll. The
major regulated water storages have adequate supplies for the immediate future.
West Region: The majority of the Region, with the exception
of some properties in Flinders Shire and the northern end of Aramac Shire, has
adequate water supplies for the immediate future. Unless useful rainfall is
recorded in these areas in the near future these supplies will continue to decline
as evaporation and increased stock consumption continue to take their toll on
remaining reserves. The Region+s major water storages appear to have adequate
supplies for the foreseeable future.
Central Region: None of the storms which occurred during
the month increased surface water storage levels, or contributed to the levels
in streams or ground water aquifers. The coastal area near Rockhampton has been
one of the worst affected by drought for the past three years and the resulting
threat to water supplies to the Capricorn Coast is quite serious. The Cracow
area has experienced water shortages for some time now and other areas within
the Region will be seriously short of water very soon if good rainfall does
not occur in the immediate future.
South East Region: In the Manumbar and Proston districts
heavy falls of rain have filled many farm dams and alleviated some surface water
problems. Ground water levels in the Region remain variable but generally on
the decline. In the Eidsvold district it has been reported that underground
water levels have fallen by up to 10 metres. In the central Lockyer Valley bore
levels are being maintained along creek frontages but bores further from the
creeks are continuing to drop. The main concern in the coming season is for
the Bundaberg cane and horticultural crop growers which will have only 15% of
their allocation.
South Region: Recent rainfall on the eastern Darling Downs
has improved surface water prospects in that area although, some of the larger
water storages will require prolonged inflow to make full recovery. Underground
supplies near the Great Dividing Range also continue to decline while supplies
in the Border Rivers district remain static with minor recoveries in some areas.
Base flows in the majority of river systems in the Region continue to decline,
with pumping restrictions in place on most streams.
OUTLOOK
The average SOI for October was -17.4, while the average
SOI for the 30 days ending 5 November 1997 was -20.3. The SOI trend during September-October
was phase 1 (ie. consistently negative). An El Nino has now developed in the
Pacific Ocean. Climate forecasts suggest that the chance of obtaining +average+
rainfall during the November - January period range are low (20 - 30 %) in north-east
Queensland, and parts of central Queensland, central and northern Burnett and
coastal south-east Queensland. They are higher in the remainder of the State.
There is a very high probability of a late start to the wet season in North
Queensland this year.
It should be noted that while climate forecasts indicate
a high probability of below average rainfall in some areas, this does not mean
that they will miss out on rainfall events. A preliminary statistical analysis
suggests that the next passage of the 30-to 50-day Oscillation is due in the
second week of November.
Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY
Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454
National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)
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The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries. |
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