DROUGHT SITUATION REPORT
SEPTEMBER 1997
Useful rainfall occurred across much of the State during
the month but generally the larger totals were confined to coastal and associated
inland areas. While totals in some areas of south and south-east Queensland
exceeded 25mm the majority of falls resulted from isolated storms and consequently
they will provide only short term relief to the dry conditions which prevail
in these areas.
During the month the Shires of Esk and Kilcoy were declared
drought stricken, effective from the 15 September 1997. Currently 21 Shires
and 2 part Shires are officially drought declared along with 509 Individually
Drought Declared Properties (IDP+s) in 26 other Shires. This represents approximately
10% of the State or 10,892 out of the 55,545 Department of Primary Industries
registered livestock enterprises.
RAINFALL
North Region: The better rainfall totals were again recorded
along the coastal fringe above Townsville although some centres on the Atherton
Tablelands received productive rainfall. During the month Babinda recorded 74mm,
Innisfail 59mm, Tully 55mm, Townsville 18mm, Bowen 5mm, Charters Towers 6mm,
Herberton 38mm, Lucinda 117mm and Malanda 42mm.
West Region: Productive rainfall during the month was generally
confined to the central and southern parts of the Region. Rainfall recordings
during the month include: Barcaldine 26mm, Blackall 29mm, Charleville 67mm,
Tambo 42mm, Longreach 20mm, Isisford 68mm, Dajarra 29mm and Cunnamulla 10mm.
Central Region: Whilst scattered rainfall was recorded
in the Region during the month some totals did not exceed 25mm and these will
only be of benefit if they occurred in the one fall. Totals during the month
include: Emerald 16mm, Mackay 29mm, Calliope 32mm, Gladstone 51mm, Banana 4mm,
Capella 26mm, Clermont 21mm, Miriam Vale 66mm, Theodore 7mm and Rockhampton
49mm.
South East Region: Some Regional centres recorded good
rainfall during the month, but the majority of falls will provide temporary
relief at best for producers in drought affected areas. Totals recorded during
the month include: Beaudesert 50mm, Boonah 57mm, Esk 41mm, Kilcoy 22mm Gatton
43mm, Kingaroy 78mm, Nanango 45mm, Kilkivan 54mm and Mundubbera 34mm. On the
coastal fringe Bundaberg received 34mm, Maryborough 26mm, Gympie 30mm, Maroochydore
28mm, and Nambour 22mm.
South Region: Useful rainfall was recorded across much
of the Region during the part of the month and proved valuable for graziers
and grain growers alike. Totals recorded during the month include: Dalby 58m,
Oakey 64mm, Toowoomba 83mm, Allora 46m, Clifton 52mm, Stanthorpe 77mm, St George
24mm, Goondiwindi 29mm, Chinchilla 51mm, Taroom 9mm, Roma 23mm, Mitchell 27mm
and Inglewood 50mm.
LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES
North Region: Useful rainfall was recorded in some centres
during the month with the better falls promoting pasture growth and a resultant
improvement in stock condition. Stock condition in most areas is still good
to excellent, the notable exception being an area in Burke Shire. Many properties
in this Shire recorded only 225 mm of rain in the last wet season and consequently
they urgently require good rainfall to give the country much needed relief.
On the whole most areas will last until rain can reasonably be expected.
West Region: The Region experienced little change from
the previous month except for the incidence of some useful storm rain. In the
north-west pasture has hayed off but has retained a green tinge in some areas.
The exception to this is in Flinders Shire where the majority of properties
north of Hughenden continue to decline with a large percentage being drought
declared. Conditions in the central and south-west Shires are normal for this
time of the year, with most areas experiencing declining protein levels in remaining
pasture. Stock condition varies throughout the Region and is dependant on the
quality of pasture and/or the degree of supplementation. There has been a general
decline in the condition of lactating females as is normal at this time of the
year.
Central Region: September produced relatively hot days
without significant rain in the Region which noticeably reduced the benefits
of a mild winter in many areas. There has been a noticeable deterioration in
stock condition this month with many lines of breeders slipping in condition.
This is extremely evident on properties where no supplementary feeding is occurring.
Pasture has completely hayed off in most areas and the warm weather coupled
with strong winds has ensured that pasture remains in a low protein phase. The
availability of standing pasture has deteriorated noticeably and is now very
patchy throughout.
South East Region: The condition of the majority of stock
the in Region is now declining. This is primarily due to lack of quality fed
and the occurrence of a number of cold frosts early in the month. Most areas
in the Region have little pasture bulk and unfortunately the occurrence of scattered
local storms and the resultant green pick has done little to improve stock condition.
Drought feeding is now occurring on an increasing number of properties. Several
bad frosts during the month affected feed supplies and reduced protein levels.
South Region: Many areas in the Region are still benefiting
from rainfall earlier in the year and have adequate pasture supplies for the
Spring period. The exception to this is the majority of the eastern and northern
Darling Downs where conditions have rapidly deteriorated resulting in stock
movements to sale and agistment. This situation has been alleviated to some
extent by recent rainfall in these areas although follow up will be required
by the end of October to halt a return to declining conditions. Stock condition
varies throughout the Region depending on pasture availability and level of
supplementation.
CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE
North Region: At Bowen, this continues to be a much improved
year for irrigation supplies and this combined with relatively favourable climatic
conditions have resulted in a good year for production. Similar conditions exist
on the Atherton Tablelands although cool winter conditions have delayed the
start of the tobacco harvest. Some extremes were experienced during the month
in the sugar cane growing areas, with warm and windy conditions causing an increase
in water requirement. Conversely, heavy rainfall caused disruptions to harvesting
in some areas.
Central Region: Rainfall during the month was patchy and
non-existent in many areas. This proved good news for many wheat growers with
the harvest in full swing or about to commence. On the Central Highlands the
grain yields are proving to be better than expected with some growers experiencing
their best yields for a number of years. In some areas the impact of the late
frost on May planted crops has become apparent, with a number of crops cut for
hay/silage or abandoned completely. Soil moisture levels are low and significant
rainfall is needed within the next three months to guarantee Summer crop planting.
South East Region: Throughout much of the Region it has proved a very poor year
for winter cereal crops due to below average rainfall. Many of the areas lucky
enough to have a crop were affected by late frosts and this will further reduce
the value of an already poor crop. In the cane growing areas the crushing season
has continued without major interruptions, with yield estimates for the Bundaberg
area indicating a similar season to last year. The Gatton district has generally
had a favourable season with mild conditions. In the Gayndah and Mundubbera
district there has been a very good season for citrus. Yields have been average
to above average and prices have held better than in previous years.
South Region: Rainfall during the month was welcomed by
farmers looking to boost yields prior to harvest. Due to mild winter conditions
many crops went to head earlier than normal and this made crops more susceptible
to frost damage. However the severe frost recorded on the 26th August, did not
cause as much damage as first estimated. Overall the western parts of the Region
have the better yield potential, compared to the eastern parts. This is due
to the differences in sub soil moisture at planting and the incidence of follow
up rain. On the Granite Belt stone fruits, grapes and apples should go through
to harvest without irrigation water problems and recent rainfall should boost
yield prospects.
WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES
North Region: Water supplies across much of the Region
are adequate for the immediate future with the exception of some properties
in Burke Shire. At Bowen, ground water supplies have recovered to some degree
but will require prolonged rainfall to recover to pre drought levels. Rainfall
during the month produced stream flows in some coastal areas but their was very
little inflow into the controlled storages. Tinaroo and Burdekin Dams still
have large available storage levels which should provide water for irrigation
purposes for quite some time.
West Region: With the exception of Flinders Shire, the
majority of the Region has adequate water supplies for the immediate future.
Some properties around Hughenden are experiencing water shortages as the storage
levels of stock dams continue to decline due to increased consumption, evaporation
and lack of inflow. The Regions major water storages have adequate supplies
for the long term.
Central Region: Due to the lack of effective run off during
the month the was no significant recharge of any of the Regions+ storages. Generally,
stream flows are in decline as would be expected for this time of the year.
Ground water levels remain variable across the Region with pumping restrictions
still in place throughout the Pioneer Valley. Irrigation demand is low at present,
however as temperatures increase and irrigators begin pre watering for summer
crops, this will increase. Stock water supplies are variable with shortages
reported from some areas. This trend will continue as evaporation and consumption
increases as summer approaches.
South East Region: There were no significant flows in any
of the Region+s streams during the month. Ground water levels remain variable,
but generally on the decline. Surface water supplies are poor in the great majority
of areas with many dam and permanent creeks supplies at a record low. Producers
in areas west of Gympie report their worst ever stock water situation. Previously
reliable stock water bores are now below their lowest recorded levels. Early
storm rain is needed urgently to alleviate the current water crisis.
South Region: Most farm storages are secure for the immediate
future however shortages in both bore and surface water supplies have been reported
from the Shires of Rosalie, Wambo, Bendemere and Crows Nest. These areas require
good rainfall urgently to overcome water shortages and provide supplies for
the Spring and Summer period. Overall the majority of the Region is well placed
in terms of water supplies for the Spring period. The major controlled storages
received replenishment earlier in the year and are adequate for the short term.
OUTLOOK
The average SOI for September was -14.1, while the average
SOI for the 30 days ending 1 October 1997 was -14.4. The SOI trend during August
- September was phase 1 (ie. consistently negative). An El Nino has now developed
in the Pacific Ocean. Climate forecasts suggest that the chance of obtaining
+average+ rainfall during the October - December period range from 20% to 40%
in areas north of Rockhampton and 30% to 50% in southern Queensland. There is
the high probability of a late start to the wet season in North Queensland this
year.
It should be noted that while climate forecasts indicate
a high probability of below average rainfall in some areas, this does not mean
that they will miss out on rainfall events. In fact, the chances of such areas
receiving larger than normal falls are quite high. The return period of the
30-to 50-day oscillation has become unreliable over recent weeks. However, the
most likely time for its next passage is about the third week of October.
The consistently negative SOI phase during April - May
indicates a higher probability than normal of late-season frost in some areas.
The chances of severe frosts are greater in southern inland regions of Qld and
northern inland districts of NSW.
RAINFALL UPDATE
At the time of compiling this report extensive thunderstorm
activity had generated widespread rainfall throughout much of the Burnett, far
south-west, Darling Downs, Western Downs, Maranoa and southern border districts.
The rainfall of between 25mm and 85mm, welcomed by graziers and grain growers
alike, unfortunately will only provide short term relief in the drought affected
areas without follow up within the next two months.
Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY
Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454
National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)
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The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries. |
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