DROUGHT SITUATION REPORT
AUGUST 1998
An unseasonal deluge at the end of August caused moderate
to severe flooding with devastating results on primary production in central
and northern Queensland between Gladstone and Cairns. While this event is devastating
to those affected in the short-term, the long-term benefits normally outweigh
damage and losses in terms of agricultural production and replenishment of surface
and groundwater supplies.
Graziers in much of the north continue to experience an
exceptional season, with good to heavy rain throughout August adding quality
to the quantity of pasture available for the rest of the year. Far northern
and gulf shires generally have adequate dry feed, but are vulnerable to fires.
Generally most areas in the West region have experienced an excellent winter
period with widespread rains ensuring good prospects for spring. An absence
of long spells of excessively cold weather has resulted in strong pasture response
and livestock holding excellent condition. Unseasonal flooding in the Central
region resulted in some stock losses, crop losses and damage to cane. Pastures
will receive an early boost and set the region up for the best start to the
season in years. In the South-east winter conditions remained mild, favouring
most industries. Areas of the North Burnett still remain dry and no significant
inflows have been recorded into Fred Haigh dam. Dry conditions in the Bundaberg
area do not offer a favourable outlook for irrigators in the lower Burnett catchment.
Agricultural production continues to improve in the South with excellent crop
and winter herbage production. However, waterlogging has caused some crop damage
in low-lying areas. Major water storages have been supplemented by good runoff.
At the end of August 1988, 15 shires and 3 part shires
remain drought declared along with 218 Individually Droughted Properties (IDPs)
in a further 25 shires. These declarations represent approximately 9% of the
land area of the State or 7,913 out of the 55,545 Department of Primary Industries
registered livestock enterprises.
RAINFALL
North Region: Heavy rainfall at the end of the month produced
record or near-record monthly totals for much of the north. The exceptions were
far northern and lower Gulf regions, where dry conditions continue. Atherton
received 4mm, Babinda 156mm, Innisfail 362mm, Tully 163mm, Cairns 65mm, Townsville
258mm, Bowen 161mm, Charters Towers 129mm, Herberton 4mm, Malanda 17mm, Mareeba
1mm and Georgetown 0mm.
West Region: Widespread rains, with beneficial rains in
the southwest and central west. Blackall recorded 39mm, Barcaldine 74mm, Charleville
30mm, Quilpie 21mm, Cunnamulla 38mm, Birdsville 0mm, Boulia 3mm, Windorah 21mm,
Longreach 43mm, Muttaburra 28mm, Winton 18, Hughenden 122mm, Cloncurry 1mm and
Mt Isa 1mm.
Central Region: Heavy rainfalls, with record rainfalls
in the upper Dawson, Mackay, Isaac and lower Fitzroy areas. Alpha recorded 126m,
Blackwater 79mm, Clermont 114mm, Dingo 80mm, Springsure 80mm, Mackay 215mm,
Proserpine 195mm, Rockhampton 236mm, Banana 85mm, Biloela 36mm, Theodore 61mm,
Miriam Vale 110mm and Gladstone 142mm.
SouthEast Region: Little significant rainfall in the region.
Monthly totals include Eidsvold 22mm, Gayndah 34mm, Gympie 60mm, Mundubbera
22mm, Esk 56mm, Kingaroy 45mm, Murgon 38mm, Nanango 37mm, Gatton 42mm and Beaudesert
74mm. On the coastal fringe Bundaberg received 69mm, Nambour 85mm and Maryborough
64mm.
South Region: Good rainfall was again received across
much of the Region. Totals include Dalby 44mm, Bell 10mm, Oakey 49mm, Jondaryan
81mm, Toowoomba 72mm, Inglewood 130mm, Pittsworth 46mm, Clifton 32mm, Warwick
38mm, Stanthorpe 54mm, Roma 79mm, Goondiwindi 191mm, St George 94mm, and Dirranbandi
47mm.
LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES
North Region: With the exception of the north west areas,
the area is in good condition with pasture supplies adequate to good. Heavy
rains at the end of August in several districts added quality to the pasture.
Far northern and gulf shires generally have adequate dry feed, but are vulnerable
to fires. Stock remains in good to excellent condition, in most areas. Cattle
prices have "kicked" for store and slaughter stock and can only be helped by
the exceptionally early start to the wet season. Most areas will have adequate
feed reserves to carry stock through till the end of the dry season.
West Region: Beneficial rainfall has been received in
many areas and in the absence of long periods of excessively cold weather pastures
are greening and stock remains in good condition. In the northwest pasture quality
remains high although seasonal deterioration has begun to show. In the central-west
seasonal conditions are generally excellent with Longreach and Blackall experiencing
a better season in terms of rainfall, pasture response and limited frost damage.
However, Winton and Boulia areas are variable as pastures deteriorate and stock
reduction and supplementation required in some areas. The southwest has received
excellent rains producing fresh pastures. Stock in this area is in excellent
condition.
Central Region: Generally pastures are in fairly good
condition throughout the region, attributed to the mild winter conditions. Livestock
condition is average for this time of year, with many fat cattle throughout
the area. Stock losses have been reported in the Nebo area, due to the flooding
that has occurred.
South-East Region: Stock conditions range from fair to
poor in the Monto Shire through to fair to good in Gayndah, Mundubbera and the
southern part of Eidsvold shire. At this time of year stock losses are expected
but generally the season has been favourable. Supplementary feeding is occurring
in the North Burnett. Pasture growth has been good, with the exception of north
of Monto and in some areas around Kilkivan and Goomeri.
South Region: Excellent rainfall over the past four months
has ensured continued production of stock, with grazing animals maintaining
average to above condition. Abundant feed supply is available from winter herbages
and remaining grass supplies.
CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE
North Region: Heavy unseasonal rain has caused significant
problems in the Burdekin, Bowen and Gumlu areas for all crops. The district
has been declared for Natural Disaster Relief Payments. In the Gumlu and Bowen
areas tomatoes near maturity have been written off and others damaged by cracking
and rot. Capsicum plants have been laid over under the wet and windy conditions,
and fruit damage and losses from abrasion and rot have occurred. Some plants
have been lost to water logging. There have been very high losses in rockmelons
and medium to heavy losses in beans and sweet corn. Mango blossoms have been
damaged and conditions favour diseases such as bacterial spot. Some replanting
of small crops can still be made, but it is getting late in the season. There
appears to have been no major impacts on bananas, pawpaws, pineapples and tropical
tree fruits. There may be some individual cases where waterlogging, fruit damage
and planting delays are significant. Potato crops around Major creek have been
ruined from waterlogging. Conversely, potato crops on the Atherton Tablelands
are approaching peak harvesting. Peanut crops have been harvested, as has the
majority of maize. The heavy rain and strong winds that occurred at the end
of the month have hit the cane industry along the northern coast to Cairns very
hard. These areas have been declared for Natural Disaster Relief Arrangements.
Central Region: Varied conditions exist in the Dawson
and Callide valleys. Most wheat crops progressed well with many reaching the
end of flowering without frost damage. Lack of moisture in the Callide valley
resulted in some crops showing incomplete filling of grain. Some useful rainfall
will assist wheat crops still green enough to use it although many crops have
ripened quickly due to moisture stress. Many wheat crops in the Dawson valley
are in magnificent condition, however, heavy rainfall in late August has damaged
some advanced crops. Further rainfall seems likely at this stage with many growers
looking forward to the prospect of a good summer season. A return to unseasonally
hot weather in the Central Highlands has resulted in crops maturing faster than
expected. Flooding in the Nebo area has severely damaged many wheat crops. Excellent
harvesting conditions were evident for most of the month until the arrival of
heavy rainfall. Damage to cane crops was lighter than expected in the Proserpine
area although some farmers have reported severe problems. Losses in the sugar
industry in the Mackay area are substantial, with many areas having to replant.
South-East Region: Wheat crops cover 70% of the winter
planted crops, with the balance barley. Wheat crops have flowered early and
so harvesting will be 7-10 days earlier than usual. Barley plantings have been
average. Current outlook for chickpeas is very favourable if current conditions
continue and there is rain to finish the crop. Sugar harvesting continues in
all major centres with some delays due to rain. CCS levels are down due in part
to the dry weather in the growing season. Yield projections of 2.8 million tonnes
are expected to be met with harvest due for completion by mid-November. Tree
crops are now flowering and will need good water supplies in the next few months
due to the dry conditions. Water allocations from the Fred Haigh dam remain
a concern for tree and horticultural crop growers.
South Region: Heavy rainfall has caused waterlogging in
the Border Rivers area. Substantial crop losses, estimated at around 20%, have
occurred around the Goondiwindi area, however the remaining crops in the region
have benefited. Some concerns exist regarding crop yellowing from insufficient
nitrogen, due to the mild wet conditions in the growing phase. There has also
been some yellow spot disease attack on the wheat. Disease concerns are emerging
for pulse crops due to the wet weather and chickpeas could be affected by mould.
WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES
North Region: The Region's controlled storages remain
at or close to capacity with irrigators guaranteed full allocations for this
year. Stock water supplies remain plentiful in most areas and should be adequate
for the remainder of the year.
West Region: Stock and domestic water supplies in most
areas of the Region appear adequate for the short term. The controlled storages
continue to remain close to capacity and there have been no reports of underground
water shortages.
Central Region: August rainfall totals are the highest
on record in the upper Dawson, Mackay, Isaac and lower Fitzroy areas. Runoff
in those areas was also very high and well above previous recordings for August.
Flood levels in the Isaac and Fitzroy are the highest since 1991 and the upper
Dawson floods are the highest since 1983. These flows will boost some storages
and groundwater aquifers however Fairbairn Dam and Peter Faust Dam did not receive
significant inflows. Biloela water storages are very low. The groundwater supplies
in the Mackay district are in a good situation, particularly for a period when
they are usually most under stress. Rockhampton groundwater level remains low
while the Isaac River area has had excellent rain so recharge is expected. Irrigation
from major storages and groundwater supplies could face restrictions and reduced
allocations next season as a result of lack of inflows, particularly in the
Callide Valley.
South-East Region: Surface water supplies remain variable
across the Region but are better in many areas than they have been during the
last three years. Surface water is a major problem in the area north of Monto
and varies from poor to fair in the Eidsvold shire, as there is no water in
the Nogo river system. Water is being released from the Cania dam for the Three
Moon, Mulgildie irrigation system. Surface water in the Mundubbera and Gayndah
shires is fair to good.
South Region: Groundwater storage levels in most aquifer
systems across the Eastern Downs have stabilised due to rainfall and decreased
irrigation demand, with some recharge in the small alluvial aquifers. Groundwater
levels in the Upper Condamine have generally stabilised however storage levels
in the majority of aquifer systems are low. Stock and domestic supplies from
groundwater resources remain satisfactory.
OUTLOOK
The average SOI for August was +9.8, while the average
SOI during the last 30 days remains strongly positive at +9.5 on 2 September
1998. Use of the Australian Rainman package indicates that the probabilities
of obtaining median rainfall during the September - November period are around
60% to 80% in the eastern half of Australia.
Some USA agencies are predicting the development of a
La Nina (above average rainfall) pattern this year. Colder-than-normal sea-surface
temperatures are now spreading throughout the entire the entire eastern equatorial
Pacific Ocean. In addition, seas-surface temperatures are considerably warmer
than normal in waters off northern Australia. The next passage of the 30-50
day Oscillation is expected about the first week of October.
The April-May SOI phase indicates that there is generally
a low probability of late, damaging frosts this year.
Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY
Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454
National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)
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The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries. |
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