DROUGHT SITUATION REPORT
FEBRUARY 1998
February proved to be a good month for rainfall in many
areas of the State. Generally, much of the State, with the exception of the
far north, requires good rainfall within the next two months to promote pasture
growth and replenish soil moisture and water levels.
At the end of February 21 shires and 2 part shires remain
drought declared along with 501 Individually Droughted Properties (IDP's) in
37 other shires. These declarations represent approximately 10% of the land
area of the State or 10, 988 out of the 55,545 Department of Primary Industries
registered livestock enterprises.
At the time of writing remnants of Cyclone May have created
widespread flooding in the Gulf country of north west Queensland and some stock
losses are anticipated.
RAINFALL
North Region: Widespread rainfall occurred across much
of the Region with the exception of Bowen and Charters Towers. During the month
Atherton received 142mm, Babinda 524mm, Innisfail 276mm, Tully 334mm, Cairns
395mm, Townsville 151mm, Bowen 48mm, Charters Towers 22mm, Herberton 115mm,
Malanda 169mm, Greenvale 299mm, Georgetown 102mm, Burketown 506mm, Croydon 209mm
and Normanton 403mm.
West Region: Useful rainfall was received across much
of the Region. Totals recorded during the month included Quilpie 50mm, Birdsville
47mm, Windorah 21mm, Blackall 102mm, Longreach 136mm, Muttaburra 48mm, Winton
37mm, Hughenden 111mm, Richmond 49mm, Cloncurry 148mm, Julia Creek 86mm and
Mt Isa 129mm.
Central Region: Useful rain was received across most of
the central area promoting good pasture growth. Totals for the month include
Alpha 47mm, Blackwater 59mm, Clermont 43mm, Dingo 13mm, Springsure 45mm, Mackay
134mm, Proserpine 297mm, Rockhampton 38mm, Banana 27mm, Biloela 102mm, Theodore
56mm, Miriam Vale 96mm and Gladstone 65mm.
South East Region: Widespread rains have markedly improved
the seasonal outlook for the region. Totals include: Eidsvold 132mm, Gayndah
140mm, Gympie 165mm, Mundubbera 139mm, Esk 84mm, Kingaroy 145mm, Murgon 72mm,
Nanango 179mm, Gatton 128mm and Beaudesert 80mm. On the coastal fringe Bundaberg
received 191mm and Maryborough 122mm.
South Region: Most areas of had useful rain, with substantial
falls over the western parts of the region, providing great benefit to pasture
and crops. Totals recorded for the month included Dalby receiving 72mm, Bell
85mm, Oakey 220mm, Jondaryan 65mm, Toowoomba 41mm, Inglewood 101mm, Pittsworth
82mm, Clifton 41mm, Warwick 56mm, Stanthorpe 86mm, Roma 109mm, Goondiwindi 41mm,
St George 8mm, and Dirranbandi 49mm.
LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES
North Region: Good rain across the region with pasture
increasing up to and, in some cases, beyond expectation and stock condition
is good. The north west area is experiencing heavy flood rains, with further
heavy rainfall likely.
West Region: Most areas have had a good start to the year
with those that received December rains responding quickly with new pasture
growth, however excessively high temperatures during January has caused burn
off. Consistent rains across the northern forest areas have produced excellent
pastures and stock are responding accordingly. Parts of the Boulia Shire have
benefited from minor flooding with stock in the Blackall and Tambo Shires in
exceptional condition. Overall the areas that have received the rains are responding
well and will continue to do so with the rest of the region needing good follow
up rains to maintain the new growth and prevent further burn off.
Central Region: The central and north west areas are suffering
from the effects of the hot dry conditions. Responses from the early rains have
"burnt off" and storms have been extremely patchy. The southern areas are in
excellent condition. Stock in the north west is beginning to be moved to agistment
and reducing stock numbers is being considered in the central west. In the south
west districts the area has a good supply of quality feed but some areas are
drying off, depending on rainfall.
South East Region: In the North, Central and South Burnett
stock condition varies from fair to good. In the Gold Coast area breeders are
in good condition and other classes of stock are in good to excellent condition.
However, in the Maryborough district many breeders are in poor condition but
with recent rainfall are improving. The Boonah/Beaudesert area has stock in
good to excellent condition. Little or no drought feeding is occurring in the
region. Generally there is good pasture growth throughout the region. In areas
that have not had adequate rainfall, sub-soil moisture is low and pastures have
been susceptible to hot dry conditions. In the great majority of the region
good to average rainfall during March should ensure an adequate body of feed
for winter.
South Region: The continued summer pasture-growing season
has enabled stock to maintain average to above body condition. Stock reduction
has not been required, as pasture conditions are holding reasonably well for
most of the region. Stock numbers in most cases have not been excessive over
recent years due to previous widespread drought. Drought feeding has not been
necessary for the summer. The useful rain over wide areas of the region has
enabled a good quantity of pasture production. Most areas have adequate feeding
supplies. The quality of the pasture has improved due to the recent favourable
weather conditions. Most farm storages are secure for the immediate future,
however north west of the Rosalie shire is experiencing some concern.
CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE
North Region: Rainfall in the Bowen area was light and
scattered breaking down cover crops. The rain slightly impeded the planting
of rockmelon, capsicum and tomatoes. The extreme heat in February did not have
any major effect on crops. The Mareeba district and Atherton Tablelands received
good rain for crops. The January flood damage is still affecting the Ingham
area; with sugar can yields expected to fall to the range 83-85 tonnes per hectare.
Central Region: The rain sparked some late planting of
sorghum crops, despite the risk of sorghum ergot infection and the prospect
of resistant heliothis grubs causing problems. A few mungbean crops were also
planted however there is concern about powdery mildew infection and resistant
heliothis grubs causing yield losses in these crops. The area of late planted
summer crop remains small in comparison to the amount of fallowed land at present,
with many growers choosing to wait for a winter crop planting opportunity. Those
crops planted in January and in the last few weeks will require rainfall within
the next month (particularly where the storm rain has been erratic) to guarantee
reasonable yields. Some fallow areas require further rainfall to fill up the
profile before a planting opportunity in April/May.
South East Region: Summer crops are now in their later
growth stages with some early sorghum crops now being harvested. Extremely dry
conditions in the Coalstoun Lakes district has prevented the planting of normal
areas of summer crops. Hot dry conditions in all areas of the region have affected
the yield potential of peanuts, corn, sorghum and beans. Late rain in February
has enabled many crops to regain lost ground and many will probably yield better
than expected. In the Bundaberg area the dry weather has affected future yield
potential. The season has been patchy in the Gatton district for production
of tomatoes, capsicum and cucurbits. In the Caboolture district most horticultural
producers are enjoying a good season with adequate rain and most on farm irrigation
storages full.
South Region: Sorghum harvest has commenced on the Downs.
The recent rain and hot weather has shortened the growing period. Sunflowers
and corn have been grown on the Eastern Downs. Excellent yields with good market
prices are expected at harvest for sunflowers. Cotton will begin to be harvested
next month with substantial yields expected. The hot, dry conditions up to February
threatened crops in the western parts. However, the rain in February has put
the crop yield back on track. Substantial summer rain will assist in improving
the sub soil moisture profile and yield potential for the oncoming winter crops.
Apple yield was down because of predominantly hot, dry conditions during December
and January. The decreased size of the fruit has impacted on loss of yield.
Although there has been good quality stonefruit harvested, the prices were low.
Areas south of Stanthorpe experienced severe hail damage to grape crops and
as a result some wineries imported grapes for wine production. The recent rain
has improved the irrigation storages dramatically.
WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES
North Region: Rainfall over the whole area has been good
to excellent and in the case of the Townsville, although excessive the area
has recovered and the response is self-evident. Water supplies on the whole
are excellent with the exception of Bowen Shire, which will still require further
heavy backup falls to replenish underground aquifers.
West Region: Supplies across the region are adequate,
as many creeks and rivers have had a flow earlier. Rainfall has had a very patchy
effect and it is vital to receive either good storms or general rain in the
next two months to provide sufficient growth.
Central Region: Widespread useful rain across the whole
central region. However, St Lawrence south on the coast; north-west of Rockhampton
northern part of Peak Downs and Jericho shire had below average rainfall. Surface
water does not appear to be a problem at this stage of the year, but some areas
need good rain for it to stay that way.
South East Region: Surface water remains variable. Many
properties that have received significant rainfall now have all dams and watercourses
full. There are however areas that require further rainfall to consolidate their
supply. Surface water in the extreme eastern section of the Gold Coast Shire
has high salt content. In the Boonah district only 50% of dams are full to capacity.
There have been many significant flows in creeks and rivers throughout the region.
Flood warnings were issued for the Auburn River near Mundubbera. However as
the storm rainfall received has all been patchy, there is great variation in
the amount and length of streamflow. Areas still requiring runoff are North
of Monto, Nogo River Catchment at Eidsvold, creeks in the Kilkivan/Tansey area,
Minden west of Ipswich and the Manumbar district. Ground water supplies vary
markedly depending on local rainfall but generally water supplies are low.
South Region: there has been excellent rainfall over the
region with 100-250mm recorded. Falls were generally lower in the southern regions,
especially in the Balonne Shire. Groundwater storage levels in most aquifers
are falling with increased irrigation pressure. However, most stock and domestic
supplies are secure. Good water flows were sustained in the Border River system.
Most storages are in a satisfactory condition including Boggabilla Weir, Glenlyon
Dam, Chinchilla Weir, Coolmunda, Beardmore Dam and Jack Taylor Weir.
OUTLOOK
The average SOI for February was -22.2, while the average
SOI for the 30 days ending 4 March was -18.8. The SOI trend during January -
February was phase 1 (ie. negative). Climate forecasts suggest that the probabilities
of obtaining median rainfall during the March - May period are 60% over much
of Queensland. That is, when the SOI trend was similar to the present one, median
rainfall was received in 6 out of 10 years.
Sea surface temperatures (SST) remain much warmer than
normal in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. However, they are
now normal in the Coral Sea and warmer-than-normal around most of the Australian
coast, which may reduce the effects of the El Nino in some areas. The next passage
of the 30-50 day Oscillation is due about the second to third week of March.
Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY
Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454
National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)
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The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries. |
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