DROUGHT SITUATION REPORT
JANUARY 1998
January proved to be a good month for rainfall in many
areas of the State with above average totals occurring across much of North
Queensland. These falls were largely due to the presence of Cyclone Sid in the
far north coastal region. Central Queensland has lost a lot of the benefit from
December rains as conditions have been extremely hot during January. In the
South-East there are many districts still in severe drought with the Kilkivan
Shire being one of the worst affected. The South Region has faced extremely
hot, dry conditions this month which has reduced crop and pasture production
and has lead to increased water usage and evaporation. Generally, much of the
State, with the exception of the far north, requires good rainfall within the
next two months to promote pasture growth and replenish soil moisture and water
levels. At the end of January, 21 shires and 2 part shires remain drought declared
along with 614 Individually Droughted Properties (IDP+s) in 36 other shires.
These declarations represent approximately 10% of the land area of the State
or 10, 988 out of the 55,545 Department of Primary Industries registered livestock
enterprises.
RAINFALL
North Region: Excellent rainfall occurred across much
of the Region with the exception of Bowen. During the month Atherton received
343mm, Babinda 1098mm, Innisfail 1019mm, Tully 1219mm, Cairns 443mm, Townsville
974mm, Bowen 129mm, Charters Towers 407mm, Herberton 242mm, Malanda 401mm, Greenvale
315mm, Georgetown 229mm, Burketown 250mm, Croydon 333mm and Normanton 338mm.
West Region: Useful rainfall was received across much of the Region. Totals
recorded during the month included Quilpie 107mm, Birdsville 2mm, Windorah 115mm,
Blackall 69mm, Longreach 56mm, Muttaburra 47mm, Winton 66mm, Hughenden 86mm,
Richmond 63mm, Cloncurry 47mm, Julia Creek 75mm and Mt Isa 70mm. Central Region:
Rainfall in the Region was isolated with some pastures responding to late rains.
Totals for the month include Alpha 47mm, Blackwater 59mm, Clermont 43mm, Dingo
13mm, Springsure 45mm, Mackay 134mm, Proserpine 297mm, Rockhampton 38mm, Banana
27mm, Biloela 102mm, Theodore 56mm, Miriam Vale 96mm and Gladstone 65mm. South
East Region: Although widespread rainfall occurred in the Region some individual
falls were not adequate enough to promote pasture response. Totals include:
Eidsvold 32mm, Gayndah 63mm, Gympie 205mm, Mundubbera 179mm, Esk 48mm, Kingaroy
106mm, Murgon 59mm, Nanango 97mm, Gatton 28mm and Beaudesert 52mm. On the coastal
fringe Bundaberg received 76mm and Maryborough 163mm. South Region: January
produced patchy rainfall throughout much of the Region with little recharge
to groundwater. Total recorded for the month included Dalby receiving 66mm,
Bell 114mm, Oakey 42mm, Jondaryan 29mm, Toowoomba 90mm, Inglewood 112mm, Pittsworth
24mm, Clifton 83mm, Warwick 91mm, Stanthorpe 76mm, Roma 18mm, Goondiwindi 30mm,
St George 20mm, and Dirrinbandi 67mm.
LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES
North Region: At this early stage the North Region has
had its best start to the season since 1991: Rainfall over the whole area has
been good to excellent and pastures and stock are in excellent condition. All
sections of the Region have had good rain ranging from about 100mm to 1000mm
with the exception of Bowen Shire which will still require further heavy backup
falls to replenish underground aquifers. Provided further rain is received in
the coming weeks, the Region will benefit greatly going into winter. West Region:
Most areas have had a good start to the year with those that received December
rains responding quickly with new pasture growth, however excessively high temperatures
during January has caused burn off. Consistent rains across the northern forest
areas have produced excellent pastures and stock are responding accordingly.
Parts of the Boulia Shire have benefited from minor flooding with stock in the
Blackall and Tambo Shires in exceptional condition. Overall the areas that have
received the rains are responding well and will continue to do so with the rest
of the region needing good follow up rains to maintain the new growth and prevent
further burn off. Central Region:. Livestock conditions are generally good throughout
the Central District although some areas in the south-east are lightening stock.
Wet cows are holding well considering the season dealt, especially in the Miriam
Vale district which appears to be the worst of the stock district. Conditions
around Emerald and Mackay however appear to have slipped prior to the relief
rain. The quality of pastures in the Central Region has been affected by severe
hot weather. The start of promising growth from January rains has been delayed
in some areas due to the hot weather burning off new growth. Generally pasture
is responding to the late rains although it remains short. If growth is to improve
further follow up rain will be required in February. South East Region: Condition
of stock is now static in many areas. There are parts of the Widgee and Kilkivan
Shires where both store stock and breeders are in very poor condition. In the
Kilkivan district drought feeding is still occurring on a number of properties
and dairy farms are having to increase rations substantially. Reasonable to
fair pasture growth has occurred in some areas but in the Kilcoy, Woolooga,
Kilkivan, Manumbar and Tansey districts there has been little or no pasture.
Extreme heat has ruined many pastures in the region. In general there is neither
quantity or quality in the pastures over much of the region. South Region: The
good start to the pasture growing season has enabled stock to maintain average
to above body condition. Stock reduction has not been required, as pasture conditions
are holding reasonably well for most of Region. Drought feeding has not been
necessary for the summer. The extremely hot, dry conditions throughout this
month has placed pastures over wide areas under stress with the result that
pasture growth has slowed. Most areas have adequate feed supplies. The quality
of the pasture has been reduced because of the recent unfavourable weather conditions.
Most farm storages are secure for the immediate future, however in Bendemere
Shire and Clifton areas stock water could be a problem.
CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE
North Region: The January period saw rain fall in the
Bowen area with around 129mm recorded and the first areas for planting have
been prepared for after February rains. Seedlings are in racks for rockmelon,
honeydew, capsicums and tomatoes while sweet corn and beans will wait until
March. The late mango varieties suffered damage by rain in the early new year
and approximately 20% of the crop was down graded or sent to processing. Some
late season tobacco was also affected by the rain. Central Region: The beginning
of the month delivered some extreme heat to the region making it hard for crops
planted in December to keep up. By the end of the month rain had been received
replacing moisture back into the soil with heavy falls occurring in some areas.
These rains are moderately useful to young sorghum crops providing some further
relief is available. Concerns of ergot infection in sorghum and heliothis in
mungbeans may see producers wait for an opportunity to plant wheat. Producers
are finding it hard to decide whether to plant a late summer crop or continue
to fallow for a winter crop. All this points to a larger than expected winter
crop if sufficient rainfall occurs. South East Region:. Summer crops are now
in their main growth stage with some early sorghum crops almost ready to head.
Unfortunately extremely dry conditions in the Coalstoun Lakes district has prevented
the planting of normal areas of summer crops. Hot dry conditions in all areas
of the region have severely affected the yield potential of peanuts, corn, sorghum
and beans. Dryland cane is being severely affected by the dry conditions with
some crops already being ploughed out. In the Gatton district the production
of tomatoes, capsicum and cucurbits is now occurring and sweet corn has been
planted in many areas. In the Bundaberg district dry conditions still prevail
and consequently sub-soil moisture levels are still very low. South Region:
There was a good start to the Summer crops with widespread rain from October
to December. Planting of dryland and irrigated cotton and sorghum on the Darling
Downs subsequently occurred. Sunflowers and corn were sown on the Eastern Downs.
The hot weather has increased the speed of maturity with the result that sorghum
and sunflower may be harvested as early as next month. The hot, dry conditions
have stressed crops in the western parts and losses to yield and crop is a consequence
although substantial November and early December rain has enabled storage of
sub-soil moisture for this winter+s crop. Areas south of Stanthorpe experienced
severe hail damage to grape crops. As a result some wineries will have to import
grapes for wine production. Irrigation storage+s are approximately a third of
capacity.
WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES
North Region: The North region has had its best start
to the season since 1991. Rainfall over the whole area has been good to excellent
and in the case of the Townsville, although excessive the area has recovered
and the response is self evident. Rainfall has been heavy and widespread and
varied from 50 to 800mm from the south to the Cape whilst the coastal regions
experienced 200 to 800mm. Water supplies on the whole are excellent with the
exception of Bowen Shire which will still require further heavy backup falls
to replenish underground aquifers. West Region: Supplies across the region are
adequate to abundant, with many creeks and rivers flowing and some local flooding.
The Paroo and Bulloo Shires have received 75-200 mm across the area producing
excellent pasture response. Rainfall has been from storm rain, therefore a very
patchy effect can be seen in most areas. It is vital to receive either good
storms or general rain in February or March to provide sufficient growth. The
region overall has received a good start but follow up rains are necessary.
Central Region: There are no real water supply problems at this stage but there
are huge demands on the underground for irrigation purposes, although recent
rains have curbed this somewhat. Rainfall in the Alpha Region has been minimal
with only an inch in the last month. The coastal strip from Calliope to Gin
Gin would be the hardest hit with some properties in real trouble. Broadsound
water supplies are adequate although some farm dams remain low and some properties
in the Isla-Delusion to Cracow area will run out of surface water in the next
4- 5 weeks if heavy runoff rain is not received. Overall water conditions in
the area are still sufficient with the same isolated dry spots. Good rain in
the next couple of weeks could still produce a good season. South East Region:
Surface water remains poor in many areas across the region. In some districts
surface water and permanent water supplies continue to be at record low. Some
districts have had good rainfall to replenish farm dams but these are in the
minority. Rainfall has provided some relief but a number of large runoff events
are needed to fill dams. There have been few significant flows in any catchments.
Rainfall for almost all centres have been below average for January. Falls of
rain have all been from storms and as a result there are marked differences
in the season over relatively small areas. South Region: There has been only
patchy rain throughout the Region with little recharge to groundwater over the
last 2 months. Most stock and domestic supplies are secure although storage
levels in most aquifer systems continue to decline with increased irrigation
pressure. Ground water pumping restrictions remain in force 12hrs/day in Warwick,
Clifton, and part of Cambooya Shires. Good water flows were sustained in the
Border River System as well as the Condamine - Balonne River. The flow in the
Balonne filled the Beardmore Dam. The storages at Boggabilla Dam, Glenlyon Dam,
Chinchilla Weir and Coolmunda are in a satisfactory condition with most other
storages in reasonable condition.
OUTLOOK
The average SOI for January was -22.1, while the average
SOI for the 30 days ending 4 February was -29.5. The SOI trend during December
- January was phase 3 (ie. consistently falling). Climate forecasts suggest
that the probabilities of obtaining median rainfall during the February - April
period are 60% over much of Queensland. That is, in years when the SOI trend
was similar to the present one, median rainfall was received in 6-in-10. This
also means that from February onwards, the effect of the SOI in the current
pattern becomes less significant. The main exceptions are parts of cental-west
Queensland and the south-western corner of Queensland where probabilities are
35% (ie. one year in three years). Sea surface temperatures (SST) remain much
warmer than normal in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. However,
they are now normal in the Coral Sea and warmer-than-normal around most of the
Australian coast, which may reduce the effects of the El Nino in some areas.
The next passage of the 30-50 day Oscillation is due about the first week of
February.
Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY
Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454
National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)
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The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries. |
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