DROUGHT SITUATION REPORT
JULY 1998
Excellent rainfall occurred across much of the State during
July, particularly in southern areas and parts of the far south-west. Flooding
occurred in the Goondiwindi and Inglewood areas towards the end of the month
due to above average winter rainfall and heavy localised falls in the headwaters
of the Macintyre and Dumaresq Rivers. Flood warnings remain current for the
Bulloo, Paroo, Moonie, Weir and Macintyre Rivers. Much of the Darling Downs
again received useful rainfall, virtually guaranteeing excellent winter crop
yields later this year. Conversely, conditions in the Monto and Eidsvold areas
continue to deteriorate due to lack of effective rainfall. Whilst many properties
have adequate pasture reserves for the short term, water supplies are approaching
critical levels.
Kingaroy and Nanango Shires were officially revoked from
drought status effective from the 10 July 1998. Therefore at the end of July
1988, 15 shires and 4 part shires remain drought declared along with 214 Individually
Droughted Properties (IDPs) in 29 other shires. These declarations represent
approximately 9% of the land area of the State or 7,909 out of the 55,545 Department
of Primary Industries registered livestock enterprises.
RAINFALL
North Region: Rainfall was generally confined to the Atherton
Tablelands and north tropical coast. Atherton received 38mm, Babinda 229mm,
Innisfail 164mm, Tully 163mm, Cairns 31mm, Townsville 9mm, Bowen 21mm, Charters
Towers 11mm, Herberton 35mm, Malanda 50mm, Mareeba 18mm and Georgetown 1mm.
West Region: Isolated and patchy rainfall occurred across
much of the Region with useful totals recorded in many centres. Blackall recorded
41mm, Barcaldine 11mm, Charleville 90mm, Quilpie 68mm, Cunnamulla 112mm, Birdsville
47mm, Boulia 16mm, Windorah 78mm, Longreach 12mm, Muttaburra 19mm, Winton 12,
Hughenden 1mm, Cloncurry 6mm and Mt Isa 15mm.
Central Region: Scattered and patchy rainfall occurred
across many parts of the Region. Alpha recorded 15mm, Blackwater 4mm, Clermont
2mm, Dingo 9mm, Springsure 5mm, Mackay 32mm, Proserpine 36mm, Rockhampton 1mm,
Banana 1mm, Biloela 3mm, Theodore 6mm, Miriam Vale 10mm and Gladstone 3mm.
South East Region: Much of the Region again received useful
rainfall. Monthly totals include Eidsvold 17mm, Gayndah 16mm, Gympie 41mm, Mundubbera
10mm, Esk 32mm, Kingaroy 15mm, Murgon 32mm, Nanango 19mm, Gatton 36mm and Beaudesert
51mm. On the coastal fringe Bundaberg received 16mm, Nambour 60mm and Maryborough
38mm.
South Region: Excellent rainfall was again received across
much of the Region. Totals include Dalby 58mm, Bell 26mm, Oakey 65mm, Jondaryan
51mm, Toowoomba 97mm, Inglewood 138mm, Pittsworth 104mm, Clifton 84mm, Warwick
102mm, Stanthorpe 142mm, Roma 50mm, Goondiwindi 130mm, St George 64mm, and Dirranbandi
89mm.
LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES
North Region: Most of the Region continues to experience
average to above average seasonal conditions. Cool and mild conditions have
assisted pasture growth and the normal decline in quality has not been as sudden
this year. Stock remain in good to excellent condition, in most areas, although
some lines of lactating females are experiencing the normal seasonal slip as
pastures hay off. Most areas will have adequate feed reserves to carry stock
through till the end of the dry season.
West Region: Unseasonal rainfall has been received in
many areas of the Region, particularly in southern parts and consequently many
areas continue to experience an average to above average season. The exceptions
are the Boulia area and the southern portion of Flinders Shire where rainfall
has been well below average or non-existent. Stock condition, with the exception
of the areas mentioned above, varies from good to excellent although some lines
of lactating females have lost condition as feed quality declines. Generally
most areas should have sufficient pasture reserves to carry them through till
the end of the year.
Central Region: Mild weather conditions combined with
scattered rainfall have helped maintain pasture condition in many areas. The
exceptions remain the Biloela/Lawgi area, the southern portion of Nebo Shire
and around Rockhampton. Most lines of stock continue to maintain condition depending
on pasture quality and degree of supplementation. Generally most areas with
the exception of those mentioned previously should have adequate pasture reserves
for the winter/spring period.
South-East Region: Stock in most areas of the Region are
in fair to excellent condition. Conversely those in the area north of Monto
range from poor to fair condition due to lack of effective rainfall and reduced
pasture quantity and quality. Pasture supplies reflect rainfall occurrence with
many areas reporting good growth of winter herbages. The flush of winter herbages
combined with mild weather conditions have assisted stock to maintain condition.
Supplementary feeding of stock is occurring in the North Burnett although it
is expected that the general practice of supplementing stock, in other areas
during winter, will now begin as pastures lose their nutritional value.
South Region: Seasonal conditions have improved across
much of the Region and most areas have adequate pasture reserves to carry stock
through the winter/spring period. Recent rainfall has generated a good growth
of winter herbage and this has assisted stock to maintain condition. Generally
stock are in good to excellent condition although some stock are reported to
have lost condition in the Goondiwindi area due to constant wet conditions and
the recent flooding. Drought feeding has ceased across the Region and many graziers
are returning stock from agistment or purchasing animals for restocking.
CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE
North Region: Wet weather during the month again affected
production in the Bowen area. Warmer than normal temperatures have assisted
insect populations and this in turn has had a detrimental effect on production.
On the Tablelands, the northern peanut harvest is all but complete with yields
down some 20% on last year. Whilst there were no major interruptions in the
cane harvest this month, continued boggy conditions have affected ground preparation
in some areas. There is the possibility of a late finish to the cane harvest
this year due to the lengthy wet season.
Central Region: Conditions vary across the Region with
crops around Emerald and in the Dawson Valley generally faring better than those
in the Callide Valley. Many growers have indicated that this could be the best
wheat season for 5-6 years if conditions are favourable between now and harvest.
Conversely, many Callide Valley crops are suffering, particularly in the southern
half where there was marginal planting rain and little follow up. This lack
of rain has caused some of the earlier planted crops to mature quicker than
expected, with the first of these due to be harvested within the next month.
Rainfall between now and the end of grain fill will continue to be useful for
most crops in the Dawson Valley. However, it will be too late for many of the
crops in the southern parts of the Callide where growers are hoping for good
Spring rains to guarantee summer crop planting.
South-East Region: In the South Burnett the area of land
planted to wheat is slightly larger than normal. Barley plantings have been
average while chickpea plantings have increased as farmers look for cropping
alternatives. The outlook for the winter crop is very favourable if current
conditions continue. In the cane growing areas harvesting continues. Early indications
are for good yields and CCS levels despite the very dry growing conditions early
in the season. In the Bundaberg district, irrigation water is at a premium.
Tree crops that are now flowering will need good water supplies for fruit fill
in the next few months. In the Lockyer Valley recent rainfall has helped the
situation considerably and conditions look promising for the spring/summer season.
South Region: On the Darling Downs wheat plantings are
up 20% on last year due to favourable conditions at sowing time. Estimates indicate
that much of the Region will experience a bumper crop if current conditions
prevail for the remainder of the growing season. Heavy rains and flooding in
the Goondiwindi area have affected many winter crops and some crops will be
lost or yields severely reduced due to waterlogging. Fine dry conditions are
required to give crops a chance to dry out and continue their growth cycle.
Recent rainfall on the Granite Belt has replenished surface water supplies and
topped up soil moisture levels. Conditions in the area are favourable for spring
and summer fruit and vegetable production.
WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES
North Region: The Region's controlled storages remain
at or close to capacity with irrigators guaranteed full allocations for this
year. Stock water supplies remain plentiful in most areas and should be adequate
for the remainder of the year. Underground water supplies around Bowen remain
depleted and will not recover without significant prolonged rainfall.
West Region: Stock and domestic water supplies in most
areas of the Region appear adequate for the short term although shortages could
realistically occur towards the end of Spring in the drier areas. The controlled
storages continue to remain close to capacity and there have been no reports
of underground water shortages.
Central Region: Stock water supplies remain variable across
the Region. The majority of areas have adequate supplies for the immediate future
while they are critical in the Lawgi area and will not recover without significant
rainfall. There were no significant streamflows during July although there were
minor flows in the Mackay area. Whist groundwater levels are stable in most
areas they are still very low in the Biloela and Rockhampton areas. Callide
Dam is currently at 13% capacity while the Kroombit Dam is empty.
South-East Region: Surface water supplies remain variable
across the Region but are better in many areas than they have been during the
last three years. Supplies in the Monto area vary from poor to critical with
many graziers carting water for stock use. The capacities of Waruma and Fred
Haigh Dams continue to decline and are 11% and 3% of capacity respectively.
Underground supplies remain variable in many areas and are depleted in the Monto
and Kilkivan areas. These will not recover without significant prolonged rainfall.
South Region: Minor surface water supplies have been replenished
in most areas due to recent rainfall. Good flows have occurred in many of the
Region's major streams and this has had a positive impact on many of the major
storages. Groundwater levels have stabilised in many areas due to rainfall and
decreased irrigation demand. Some alluvial aquifers have recorded modest gains
due to the rainfall and associated streamflows. Generally most of the Region
is well placed for water supplies for the immediate future.
OUTLOOK
The average SOI for July was +12.9, while the average
SOI during the 30 days has continued its upward trend and was +14.2 on 5 August
1998. Use of the Australian Rainman package indicates that the probabilities
of obtaining median rainfall during the August-October period are around 60%
to 80% in the eastern half of Australia. The main exceptions are coastal districts
south of Gympie where probabilities are 50% to 60%.
Some USA agencies are predicting the development of a
La Nina (above average rainfall) pattern this year. Sea surface temperatures
(SST) continue to cool from the International Dateline to the eastern Pacific
Ocean. However waters remain warmer than normal in the extreme eastern equatorial
Pacific Ocean. The next passage of the 30-50 day Oscillation is expected in
about the end of August.
The April-May SOI phase indicates that there is generally
a low probability of late, damaging frosts this year.
Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY
Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454
National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)
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The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries. |
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