DROUGHT SITUATION REPORT
MARCH 1998
March proved to be hot and dry month with the exception
of gulf region, where heavy rains fell. Many areas are in need of autumn rains
to improve pasture and cropping yields. In general stock condition is average
to good, however without further rains this is likely decline in the short term.
At this stage it appears that the Northern Region will
have a year relatively free from drought. Meetings will be convened with all
Local Drought Committees (LDCs) during April and decisions made regarding revocations
of IDPs in the region. There has been little or no effective rainfall in the
Central Region during the month, which has led to overall deterioration in the
region. Lack of rainfall coupled with continued hot temperatures have had an
adverse effect on crops, pastures and water storages. In the Southern Region
variable summer rain has resulted in variable crop yields, pastures and water
storages. The outlook for the Western Region is bleak for much of the region
due to the hot dry conditions experienced over recent months, unless there is
significant rainfall in the next few months. Agistment is difficult to locate
and forced sales are suffering depressed markets. Variable conditions prevail
in the South-East Region with many areas receiving little or no rainfall. Many
areas urgently require rainfall to consolidate their water supplies.
At the end of March 21 shires and 2 part shires remain
drought declared along with 603 Individually Droughted Properties (IDP's) in
39 other shires. These declarations represent approximately 10% of the land
area of the State.
RAINFALL
North Region: Very heavy rainfalls fell in the gulf regions
and average or below average rain in the rest of the North region. Atherton
received 98mm, Babinda 325mm, Innisfail 358mm, Tully 347mm, Cairns 197mm, Townsville
69mm, Bowen 13mm, Charters Towers 42mm, Herberton 83mm, Malanda 93mm, Greenvale
220mm, Georgetown 104mm, Burketown 652mm, Croydon 101mm and Normanton 475mm.
West Region: Totals recorded during the month included
Quilpie 0mm, Birdsville 2mm, Windorah 0.6mm, Blackall 0mm, Longreach 0mm, Muttaburra
0.4mm, Winton 0mm, Hughenden 24mm, Richmond 74mm, Cloncurry 52mm, Julia Creek
54mm and Mt Isa 42mm.
Central Region: Most areas did not receive any effective
rainfall in the Central region during March. Totals for the month include Alpha
0mm, Blackwater 0.3mm, Clermont 4mm, Dingo 24mm, Springsure 0mm, Mackay 225mm,
Proserpine 80mm, Rockhampton 4mm, Banana 10mm, Biloela 22mm, Theodore 0mm, Miriam
Vale 50mm and Gladstone 21mm.
South East Region: Most areas received below average rainfall
for the month. Totals include: Eidsvold 4mm, Gayndah 6mm, Gympie 12mm, Mundubbera
0mm, Esk 13mm, Kingaroy 19mm, Murgon 38mm, Nanango 30mm, Gatton 7mm and Beaudesert
20mm. On the coastal fringe Bundaberg received 6mm and Maryborough 20mm.
South Region: Hot and dry conditions were predominant
during March, with only patchy rainfall throughout the region. Rainfall totals
recorded for the month included: Dalby 72mm, Bell 85mm, Oakey 220mm, Jondaryan
65mm, Toowoomba 41mm, Inglewood 101mm, Pittsworth 82mm, Clifton 41mm, Warwick
56mm, Stanthorpe 86mm, Roma 109mm, Goondiwindi 41mm, St George 8mm, and Dirranbandi
49mm.
LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES
North Region: Rainfall in the Bowen Shire was lower than
the rest of the region and pastures are drying off rapidly with the continuing
hot weather. Stock condition is good. Burdekin and Whitsunday Shires are in
fairly good condition. Dalrymple Shire is experiencing a reasonable to very
good "wet" and stock condition and pastures are in very good shape. Some areas
around Mingela and Ravenswood are haying off and further rain would be beneficial
as the cooler weather approaches. Townsville, Malanda and Mareeba, Georgetown
and Normanton stock districts have also experienced good conditions resulting
in good stock and pasture conditions.
West Region: The high daily temperatures have caused considerable
drying and burning-off of pastures, following the wet start to the month from
Cyclone May. Stock are currently holding condition, but this will soon be reversed
as the season progresses. Northern areas remain in excellent condition and stock
are gaining condition even as pastures begin to hay off. Across the southern
belt of the north-west pastures are fading and stock condition is declining.
In the central and south-west areas pastures have affected the pasture and availability
of feed due to the high daily temperatures. Follow up rains are required to
maintain stock condition.
Central Region: Despite the lack of rainfall livestock
condition is fair to good and holding throughout the area, however there are
some pockets scattered throughout the region where cattle are quite poor. However,
stock condition is likely to decline if weather conditions do not improve. Due
to the unseasonably dry and hot weather conditions during March, pasture quality
has declined and hayed off throughout the region with coastal areas being the
worst affected. All areas need good rainfall over the next few months to allow
adequate pasture response prior to the onset of winter.
South East Region: In the Bundaberg district the majority
of stock are in good condition. North, Central and South Burnett stock vary
from fair to good condition. In the Maryborough district many breeders are in
poor condition but with recent rain are improving. The Boonah / Beaudesert area
has stock in good to excellent condition. Stock in Kilkivan Shire are in good
condition but this is more a reflection of very low stock numbers rather than
a good season. Overall, stock are in slightly less than average condition for
the region due to the heat wave conditions and subsequent poor rains in March.
Pasture growth varies markedly throughout the region, depending on rainfall.
Fair pastures are apparent in some parts of Yarraman, Beaudesert, Maryborough,
Mundubbera and south of Monto.
South Region: Stock have continued to maintain average
to above body condition due to adequate pasture availability. There has been
movement from Waggamba Shire to agistment further west. All producers are assessing
stocking areas as winter approaches. Summer rains produced a reasonable quantity
of pasture, with most areas having adequate feed supplies. However, the hot
and dry conditions caused a fall in pasture quality. If the dry conditions continue
there may be concern for stock feed availability in some areas going into winter.
CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE
North Region: In farming districts, prospects for current
crops are fairly normal, despite a mixed season. Exceptions could include cane
growing areas of the wet tropical coast that suffered flooding earlier in the
year, and dryland peanuts that were planted late because of the heavy rain are
now facing a shortage of moisture.
Central Region: The area of crop in Dawson-Callide is
much lower than normal this season with about 30000ha of sorghum and 5000ha
mungbeans planted. It is therefore possible that the area of winter crop will
be higher than normal if reasonable planting rains occur during April and May
because of the larger than usual area of summer fallow. In the Central Highlands
sorghum crops are suffering moisture stress with reduced yields and small grain
size likely, with many crops likely to be used as cattle feed. Better yields
are expected in the Dawson Valley area. There is currently no ergot evident
in sorghum, probably due to the hot and dry conditions. Sunflower crops are
in reasonable condition and are developing well on stored soil moisture. Some
cane crops in the Mackay region are showing signs of stress and demand for irrigation
is high.
South East Region: Summer crops are now being harvested.
Yields were average where sufficient rain fell, whilst in other areas crops
have been poor. Hot dry conditions in all areas of the region have affected
the yield potential of peanuts, corn, sorghum and beans. Sorghum growers in
the North Burnett report that due to the dry conditions crop yield potential
has halved. Many producers in drier areas will not have enough soil moisture
to plant winter crops unless there is significant rainfall in the near future.
The Bundaberg area proved dry for canegrowers, affecting potential yield. In
the Gatton district, the season has been patchy for horticultural enterprises,
with some producers unable to work the soil because of wet conditions whilst
other areas have been too dry. In the Bundaberg district sub-soil moisture levels
are very low making ground preparation difficult and raising concerns about
irrigation water supplies for the coming season. In the Caboolture district
most horticultural producers are enjoying a good season with adequate rains
and most on farm irrigation storages are full. In the citrus growing districts
of Gayndah and Mundubbera extra watering has been necessary.
South Region: A large percentage of the sorghum crop has
been harvested. Yields in the Eastern Downs varied due to the variable rainfall
experienced in the region during the growing season. Harvesting in the western
areas will commence in April. Heat wave conditions reduced quality of mung bean
crops and caused some processing problems. Large areas of winter crops are likely
to be planted, as subsoil moisture is reasonable. Wheat, barley and chickpeas
are likely to be the major crops grown. Cotton yields are above average in the
St George and Goondiwindi areas. Heliothis attack on the Eastern Downs has caused
concern although satisfactory yields are expected. The majority of grape, stonefruit
and apples were harvested during March.
WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES
North Region: March saw very heavy fain in the gulf regions,
with average or below average in the rest of the North. Parts of Dalrymple,
Bowen and Etheridge Shires are in need of autumn or winter rain otherwise water
storages will be a problem. Water supplies in the Bowen stock district are barely
adequate and sub-artesian supplies are still critical. Otherwise, stock district
water supplies are adequate at this stage.
West Region: Supplies across the region are adequate,
but the hot dry temperatures have caused considerable evaporation from surface
storages. No significant flows in creeks and channels were recorded.
Central Region: Surface and groundwater storages are in
general decline. The runoff in the Fitzroy Basin this wet season is the lowest
since 1969. Rainfalls are well below average. If no significant rainfall occurs
before spring many properties will face severe water shortages. Irrigators and
industrial users continue to be well supplied from storages in Emerald, Dawson,
Callide, Boyne, Fitzroy and Mackay areas although there will have to be reduced
allocations next season if there are no substantial inflows to the systems in
the next six months. Irrigation in the sugar areas near Mackay is at near peak
demand due to the hot dry conditions.
South East Region: Surface water remains variable. Many
properties that have received significant rainfall now have all dams and watercourses
full. There are however areas that require further rainfall to consolidate their
supply. In the Ipswich district surface water supplies vary from low to excellent.
South Region: There have been no significant flows in
creeks and rivers throughout the region during March. Ground water supplies
vary markedly depending on local rainfall but generally water supplies are low,
with ground water in Kilkivan critical. Significant drops in aquifer levels
in the Eidsvold district have been noted, with levels south of Monto declining,
and north of Monto maintaining their levels.
OUTLOOK
The average SOI for March was -26.1, while the average
SOI for the 30 days ending 1 April was -27.1. The SOI trend during February
- March was phase 1 (ie. negative). Climate forecasts suggest that the probabilities
of obtaining median rainfall during the April - June period range from about
50% to 70% over most of Queensland.
Although the El Nino pattern has weakened a little, sea
surface temperatures (SST) remain warmer than normal in a large area of the
eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. Surface waters are also warmer than normal
in the Coral Sea, and around the Queensland and eastern Australian coastlines.
The next passage of the 30-50 day Oscillation is expected about the second to
third week of April.
Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY
Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454
National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)
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The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries. |
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