DROUGHT SITUATION REPORT
NOVEMBER 1998
With the exception of the Channel Country and the far
south-west, much of the State again received beneficial rainfall during the
month. Useful falls were recorded in central and western Queensland, the Darling
Downs and much of the south east corner of the State. Much of the State has
received beneficial rainfall within the last two to three months promoting pasture
growth and replenishing water supplies. Following revocation of IDP status for
two properties in Bowen Shire, the north Region is officially free of drought
for the first time in seven years.
At the end of October 1998, 15 shires and 3 part shires
remain drought declared along with 103 Individually Droughted Properties (IDPs)
in a further 21 shires. These declarations represent approximately 9% of the
land area of the State or 7,798 out of the 55,545 Department of Primary Industries
registered livestock enterprises.
RAINFALL
North Region: Widespread rainfall occurred across much
of the Region. Atherton received 86mm, Babinda 258mm, Innisfail 187mm, Tully
238mm, Cairns 96mm, Townsville 97mm, Bowen 53mm, Charters Towers 169mm, Herberton
189mm, Malanda 196mm, Croydon 87 and Georgetown 66mm.
West Region: With the exception of the channel country
and far south-west, useful rainfall was recorded in many parts of the Region.
Blackall recorded 51mm, Barcaldine 68mm, Charleville 35mm, Cunnamulla 22mm,
Birdsville 13mm, Boulia 16mm, Windorah 23mm, Longreach 48mm, Muttaburra 53mm,
Winton 85mm, Hughenden 67mm, Cloncurry 49mm and Mt Isa 31mm.
Central Region: Widespread rainfall was recorded across
much of the Region. Alpha recorded 123mm, Blackwater 89mm, Clermont 77mm, Dingo
112mm, Springsure 37mm, Mackay 144mm, Proserpine 284mm, Rockhampton 76mm, Banana
125mm, Biloela 96mm, Theodore 83mm, Miriam Vale 120mm and Gladstone 64mm.
South-East Region: Excellent rainfall occurred across
much of the Region. Totals include Eidsvold 176mm, Gayndah 127mm, Gympie 87mm,
Mundubbera 173mm, Esk 46mm, Kingaroy 118mm, Murgon 160mm, Nanango 82mm, Gatton
49mm and Beaudesert 61mm. On the coastal fringe Bundaberg received 130mm, Nambour
98mm and Maryborough 74mm.
South Region: Much of the Region recorded again received
useful rainfall. Totals include Dalby 74mm, Bell 26mm, Oakey 63mm, Jondaryan
75mm, Toowoomba 95mm, Inglewood 98mm, Pittsworth 66mm, Clifton 124mm, Warwick
101mm, Stanthorpe 81mm, Roma 67mm, Goondiwindi 35mm and St George 39mm.
LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES
North Region: Most areas in the Region have received useful
rainfall in the last two months and this has generated substantial pasture response.
Consequently most lines of stock are in good to excellent condition. Many producers
have taken the opportunity to burn some of their country and pastures have responded
where adequate rain has fallen. Given the time of year the majority of areas
are in their best shape for a number of years.
West Region: Much of the Region has recorded useful storm
rain and pastures have responded accordingly. A noted exception is the area
to the west of Boulia where conditions continue to deteriorate and producers
have been forced to lighten stock numbers as a result. Elsewhere most areas
have experienced varying levels of pasture growth, dependant on rainfall received,
and stock condition has improved as a result. Much of the central and south
west continues to experience an excellent season while areas in the north are
now responding to recent rainfall.
Central Region: The majority of the Region has now received
useful/excellent rainfall, including the Lawgi area near Biloela although this
area still requires further rainfall to alleviate water shortages and continue
pasture growth. Generally, much of the Region is experiencing its best start
to summer for a number of years as pastures respond to the continued rainfall
of the last three months. Most lines of stock are in good to excellent condition
and should continue to improve as pastures respond to recent rainfall and warmer
temperatures.
South-East Region: Recent rainfall has done much to improve
pastures across most of the Region. In the Ipswich district, feed is of good
quality, but quantity is still light. In the Brisbane Valley native pastures
have recovered slightly due to the recent rainfall although some drier areas
still exist. Producers with irrigation are watering regularly to maintain their
improved pasture quality and quantity. In Eidsvold, Mundubbera and Gayndah Shires
pastures have responded to the rainfall with most properties carrying a good
body of feed. Generally stock condition varies from good to excellent and there
are no reports of drought feeding occurring in the Region.
South Region: Much of the Region continues to experience
excellent levels of pasture growth in response to recent rainfall. Recent warm
weather combined with rainfall and/or good soil moisture levels have resulted
in a flush of summer pastures that has enabled stock to either maintain or improve
in condition. Accordingly most lines of stock are in good to excellent condition.
Many producers are opting to return stock from agistment or purchase animals
for restocking to take advantage of abundant pasture supplies.
CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE
North Region: Another month of rain continued to adversely
impact on horticulture in coastal areas including the wet tropics and the Burdekin/Bowen
district. At Bowen, pest and disease problems have significantly affected production.
In the Tully area there are reports of significant damage to bananas, and to
a lesser extent papaws and tropical tree fruits from high winds and hail-storms
during November. The northern cane industry has been badly affected by continued
wet conditions culminating in major losses through unharvested, condemned or
low CCS (Commercial Cane Sugar) cane.
Central Region: Recent rainfall has proved beneficial
for spring crops planted on the previous rain. Many cotton crops are yet to
be irrigated, which has been a bonus for growers. Weed control following the
winter crop has been an issue for most growers and many farmers were prevented
from planting a spring crop due to the late harvest. The rain received towards
the end of November will ensure that most paddocks intended for a summer crop
will be planted in the next two months. Many growers are now in the final stages
of preparation for the planting of either sorghum or mung bean crops. With long
term weather forecasts indicating a wetter than normal season, further planting
opportunities seem likely. If current rainfall patterns continue, the 1998/99
summer crop has the possibility of being one of the better harvests in Central
Queensland for many years.
South-East Region: Winter crop yields in the South Burnett
vary greatly. Average wheat yields will be around 1 to > of a tonne while normal
yields would be 1< to 1= tonnes. Quality ranges from prime hard to feed wheat
with a large portion at AH classification. In the North Burnett the wheat crop
is better with less disease problems than southern crops, however rain at harvest
could affect grades markedly. In the sugar cane growing areas rain disruptions
have caused delays in harvesting and as a result the season will be prolonged.
Of major concern is the decline in CCS levels in the Bundaberg area. In the
Nambour district many stone fruit crops have been badly affected by flying foxes.
Harvesting of stone fruit such as peaches and nectarines is now nearing the
end of the picking season in the Kumbia district.
South Region: With much of the winter harvest on the Darling
Downs now complete, the variation in yields and quality of the winter crop is
now becoming clearer. Following one of the wettest winters on record the resultant
harvest could be best described as disappointing for many growers. Waterlogging,
disease, pest incursions and leaching of soil nitrogen have all contributed
to a reduction in quantity and quality of the southern Queensland winter crop.
It now appears apparent that the wet moist conditions have also provided the
ideal vector for the emergence and spread of heliothis and other insect pests
leading to damage of cotton and other summer crops in many areas. Early summer
storms have produced hail and strong winds which have caused considerable damage
to vegetable, stone fruit, cotton and remnant winter crops in many areas of
the Darling Downs and Maranoa. On a positive note, good soil moisture and recent
rainfall have provided an ideal start for spring crops and will trigger large-scale
plantings of summer crops.
WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES
North Region: Continued rainfall has maintained the Region's
major storages at or close to capacity. Conversely, underground water supplies
remain variable in the Bowen and Burdekin areas where bores have not returned
to pre-drought levels. Full recovery in these areas will not be achieved without
a prolonged wet season and associated flooding. Generally, stock water supplies
remain adequate in most parts although increasing temperatures and high evaporation
rates will decrease capacities as summer approaches.
West Region: Stock and domestic water supplies in most
areas of the Region appear adequate for the short term although increased consumption
and evaporation rates will test remaining supplies in some stock dams and waterholes.
The controlled storages continue to remain close to capacity and there have
been no reports of underground water shortages.
Central Region: The Region is wetter than it has been
for quite a long time and predicted summer rains should bring further benefit
to all districts in terms of ground and surface water storage. Where catchments
are very wet, better than normal runoff may be expected. It is also hoped that
the good grass cover in most areas will be beneficial for soil conservation.
Irrigation supplies already look reasonably secure for the coming summer in
most areas. Although further streamflows are needed in the Peter Faust catchment
and in the Callide Valley where considerable wet periods will be required to
raise groundwater levels.
South-East Region: Surface water supplies remain variable
across the Region depending on recent rainfall. Generally water supplies are
improving although many underground supplies still require significant replenishment.
The unavailability of water from Atkinson's Dam and Lake Clarendon has reduced
the area of irrigated crops able to be grown in the Lockyer Valley. Similarly,
Fred Haigh, Wuruma and Cania Dams are still at critical levels with very little
inflow recorded following recent rainfall. Consequently, many growers remain
concerned regarding irrigation allocations for next year.
South Region: Groundwater levels in the Region generally
remain stable although bore levels have risen in some areas. Recent streamflow
events in the Condamine River and tributary streams have allowed useful recharge
in the Condamine alluvial aquifer and aquifers associated with its tributaries.
Groundwater levels in basalt and sandstone aquifers in upland areas of the district
remain relatively static. Many smaller streams and creeks across the Region
continue to flow after the rainfall of the last few months and consequently
stock and irrigation storages have been replenished in most areas.
OUTLOOK
The average SOI for November +13.31 while the average
SOI during the last 30 days (ending 2 December) was strongly positive at +11.94.
Use of the Australian Rainman package indicates that the probabilities of obtaining
median rainfall during the December-February period are generally over 50% in
the eastern States of Australia, with areas exceeding 70 to 80% along the coast
and adjacent inland regions and Cape York.
Colder-than-normal, equatorial sea-surface temperatures
are now present from around the International Dateline to the eastern Pacific
Ocean. In addition, temperatures are considerably warmer than normal in waters
of northern Australia. Some USA agencies are predicting the development of a
La Nina (above average rainfall) pattern this year. Such a development would
probably result in reduced rainfall for our trade competitors in south-western
USA, Argentina and central Asia.
A preliminary assessment indicates that the next passage
of the 30 to 50 day Oscillation is due about the fourth week of December.
Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY
Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454
National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)
 |
The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries. |
| 
