DROUGHT SITUATION REPORT
OCTOBER 1998
With the exception of the Gulf Country and far north-west,
much of the State experienced useful rainfall during the month. Excellent falls
were recorded in central Queensland, the Darling Downs and much of the south
east corner. Whilst the majority of the State has received beneficial rainfall
within the last two months isolated areas remain quite dry. These areas include
the southern portion of Flinders Shire, an area between Mckinlay and Boulia
and some areas in the Lockyer, Burnett and Brisbane Valleys. At the end of October
1988, 15 shires and 3 part shires remain drought declared along with 200 Individually
Droughted Properties (IDPs) in a further 27 shires. These declarations represent
approximately 9% of the land area of the State or 7,895 out of the 55,545 Department
of Primary Industries registered livestock enterprises.
RAINFALL
North Region: With the exception of the Gulf and the western
side of Cape York much of the Region recorded useful rainfall. Atherton received
33mm, Babinda 96mm, Innisfail 106mm, Tully 213mm, Cairns 48mm, Townsville 111mm,
Bowen 53mm, Charters Towers 40mm, Herberton 76mm, Malanda 73mm, Croydon 15mm
and Georgetown 21mm.
West Region: Scattered rainfall occurred in many centres
of the Region with the better totals generally confined to central areas. Blackall
recorded 96mm, Barcaldine 101mm, Charleville 26mm, Cunnamulla 37mm, Birdsville
4mm, Boulia 4mm, Windorah 12mm, Longreach 72mm, Muttaburra 52mm, Winton 60mm,
Hughenden 178mm, Cloncurry 1mm and Mt Isa 28mm.
Central Region: Much of the Region again received excellent
rainfall. Alpha recorded 134mm, Blackwater 181mm, Clermont 80mm, Dingo 209mm,
Springsure 220mm, Mackay 48mm, Proserpine 204mm, Rockhampton 82mm, Banana 87mm,
Biloela 85mm, Theodore 92mm, Miriam Vale 64mm and Gladstone 85mm.
South-East Region: Patchy and variable rainfall totals
occurred across much of the Region. Totals include Eidsvold 38mm, Gayndah 31mm,
Gympie 34mm, Mundubbera 30mm, Esk 14mm, Kingaroy 22mm, Murgon 8mm, Nanango 22mm,
Gatton 7mm and Beaudesert 15mm. On the coastal fringe Bundaberg received 118mm,
Nambour 10mm and Maryborough 70mm.
South Region: Widespread rainfall was again received across
much of the Region with the majority of totals in excess of 20mm. Totals include
Dalby 29mm, Bell 32mm, Oakey 50mm, Jondaryan 27mm, Toowoomba 33mm, Inglewood
69mm, Pittsworth 33mm, Clifton 40mm, Warwick 50mm, Stanthorpe 72mm, Roma 44mm,
Goondiwindi 17mm, St George 68mm, and Dirranbandi 42mm.
LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES
North Region: Further rain in most parts, except the north
west, continued what has generally been an excellent year for the beef industry
and most lines of stock are in good to excellent condition. While seasonally
dry pasture is evident in far northern and north western parts, much of the
dry tropical coast and adjacent inland shires such as Bowen, Burdekin and Dalrymple
has experienced excellent levels of pasture growth for most of the year. In
some areas pasture has become "rank" due to continued rainfall and consequently
stock condition has fallen due to the low nutritional value of pasture.
West Region: Normal late seasonal conditions of hot, dry
daily temperatures have resulted in the "drying off" of pastures throughout
much of the Region. Scattered storms across southern and central parts have
stimulated pasture growth and conditions continue to improve in these areas.
The towns of Julia Creek, Hughenden and Kynuna were severely battered by storms
in the latter part of the month resulting in some major structural damage. With
the exception of the southern portion of Flinders Shire and an area between
Mckinlay and Boulia most of the Region is generally in exceptionally good condition
for this time of the year.
Central Region: With the exception of the Lawgi area near
Biloela, the majority of areas throughout the Region received useful rainfall
during the month. The Lawgi area again received only scattered light falls of
rain and water availability remains a major concern. Pasture response has been
good in most areas although growth is not what was expected due to the recent
cooler temperatures. Stock condition across the Region is reported to be very
good, with stock in most areas in the best condition they have been for many
years. Exceptions remain the Lawgi area and some areas around Rockhampton where
the falls of rain have been lighter and the cattle slower to pick up.
South-East Region: Winds and warm conditions in all areas
have dried off much of the early spring growth of pastures but quality remains
quite good in most areas. Exceptions are the Monto area, and the Biarra and
Eskdale districts in the Brisbane Valley, where lack of rainfall has resulted
in insignificant pasture growth that has little nutritional value. Stock condition
across the Region ranges from good to excellent except for the areas mentioned
previously. In the Brisbane Valley approximately 3% of producers are starting
to feed stock while in the North Burnett drought feeding in the area is about
0.5% and this has not increased.
South Region: The excellent rainfall through winter and
early spring months has ensured continued livestock production. The warmer weather
has encouraged summer pasture growth and both quality and quantity have improved.
As a result, stock have maintained condition and most lines of stock are in
good to excellent order. Cattle prices have remained fairly static throughout
the month and many producers continue to restock and take advantage of excellent
pasture reserves.
CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE
North Region: Horticulture in coastal areas including
the wet tropics and Burdekin district continued to be affected by unseasonal
rain. Melons and pumpkins have suffered considerable losses due to waterlogging
and other effects. Production in the Bowen and Gumlu areas has again been affected
by rainfall causing many lines of produce to be rejected as well as predisposing
fruit crops to leaf miner and silver leaf white fly attack. The Mango harvest
is under way, with the crop generally down in size, although there are some
favourable reports on production from the R2E2 variety. Harvesting of the potato
crop on the Atherton Tableland moved towards completion and confirmed a light
year in terms of production. The cane industry along the northern coast to Cairns
continued to be affected by heavier than normal rainfall that again caused harvesting
and milling delays. Overall yields and CCS are both down on district averages
and there will be an ongoing impact through next season due to loss of plant
cane, patchy crops and time required to repair flood-damaged farmland.
Central Region: The wheat harvest for 1998 proved to be
quite a wet one, with rain early in the month further delaying the harvest and
downgrading grain still in the paddock. Most wheat crops in the area have been
harvested, with less than 15% yet to be taken off. Much of the grain has had
to be delivered at high moisture levels, requiring it to be dried before entering
storage. Delays in the harvest have resulted in reduced spring plantings than
predicted. Generally, most growers are now waiting for a summer planting opportunity
in December or January as many consider it too late for a spring plant.
South-East Region: The winter crop harvest in the South
Burnett varies greatly with the wetter than average season resulting in decreased
quality and quantity of grain. Average wheat yields in the South Burnett will
be around 1 to > of a tonne while normal yields would be 1< to 1= tonnes. The
quality of the crop ranges from prime hard to feed wheat with a large portion
at AH classification. In the North Burnett the wheat crop has been better with
less disease problems than southern crops, however rain at harvest could affect
grades markedly. In the cane growing areas disruptions due to rain have caused
harvesting problems. As a result the season will be prolonged and harvesting
and crushing is being carried out on weekends in an endeavour to make up for
lost time. In the Nambour district there is a possibility that some cane will
be held over until next season. In the Bundaberg district the lack of irrigation
water is still a concern for cane farmers, small crop growers and orchardists
although there has been a small increase in allocations due to recent rain.
Similarly farmers in the Lockyer Valley are concerned with the lack of runoff
into irrigation storages and without prolonged summer rainfall irrigation allocations
could be substantially reduced next year.
South Region: The harvest of winter wheat crops commenced
earlier in the month in the western areas of Roma, St George and Thallon, with
a wide range of grain qualities delivered to silos. Few crops made prime hard
and yields were extremely variable. The harvest has now started in southern
areas however intermittent rainfall has hampered the removal of grain. Graingrowers
will be relieved to finish the harvest due to the extremely wet conditions that
have persisted in many areas causing yield reductions due to fungal disease
and waterlogging. The yield prospects for dryland cotton are exceptionally good
on the Darling Downs due to the high probability of above average summer rainfall,
excellent crop prices and a full soil moisture profile. On the Granite Belt,
fruit and vegetable growers have had water storages replenished ensuring adequate
irrigation supplies for the summer months.
WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES
North Region: Whilst the Region's major storages are at
or close to capacity, underground water supplies remain variable. This is particularly
evident in the Bowen and Burdekin areas where bores have not returned to pre-drought
levels. Full recovery in these areas will not be achieved without a prolonged
wet season and associated flooding. Generally, stock water supplies remain adequate
in most parts although increasing temperatures and high evaporation rates will
decrease capacities as summer approaches.
West Region: Stock and domestic water supplies in most
areas of the Region appear adequate for the short term although increased consumption
and evaporation rates will test remaining supplies in some stock dams and waterholes.
The controlled storages continue to remain close to capacity and there have
been no reports of underground water shortages.
Central Region: In early October storms in the Region
caused small stream rises in the Isaac and Mackenzie Rivers. This created opportunities
for water harvesting but no rises in surface water storage levels. Later in
the month the more widespread rainfall produced better water harvesting opportunities
in many streams and there was also a small but worthwhile inflow to Fairbairn
Dam. Apart from the Lawgi area most areas have adequate stock water for the
immediate future. Groundwater levels are still extremely low but are showing
the first signs of recharge, particularly in coastal areas. Further widespread
general rainfall is needed to enable recharge to take place.
South-East Region: Warm dry weather during the middle
of the month reduced water levels in farm dams across the Region. In the Gympie
area surface water is decreasing with many dams still between low and empty.
Underground water also remains critical in this area. Similarly some parts of
Esk Shire also have farm dams at critically low levels. In the Ipswich district
many property dams and watercourses are holding sufficient supplies to last
until the end of the year. Underground supplies vary from area to area with
some showing slight improvement and others with no improvement at all. In the
Beaudesert district off stream storage remains a problem in most districts.
Some properties have been fortunate enough to receive localised storms that
have topped dams up, but these storms have not been widespread.
South Region: The Condamine and Balonne Rivers recorded
good streamflows during the month as did the Macintyre, Moonie and Weir Rivers.
Total flows in these streams were in excess of average monthly flows. Groundwater
levels in the Region generally remain stable although bore levels have risen
in some areas. Recent streamflow events in the Condamine River and tributary
streams have allowed useful recharge in the Condamine alluvial aquifer and alluvial
aquifer systems associated with its tributaries. Groundwater levels in basalt
and sandstone aquifers in upland areas of the district remain relatively static.
OUTLOOK
The average SOI for October +11.16 while the average SOI
during the last 30 days (ending 6 November) was strongly positive at +13.11.
Use of the Australian Rainman package indicates that the probabilities of obtaining
median rainfall during the November-January period are generally 60-80% in the
eastern States of Australia. However, parts of north-western and central-western
Queensland have probabilities of about 50%.
Some USA agencies are predicting the development of a
La Nina (above average rainfall) pattern this year. Such a development would
probably result in reduced rainfall for our trade competitors in south-western
USA, Argentina and central Asia.
A preliminary assessment indicates that the next passage
of the 30 to 50 day Oscillation is due about the first week of December.
Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY
Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454
National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)
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The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries. |
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