DROUGHT SITUATION REPORT
AUGUST 1999
Graziers in the north are experiencing
near normal conditions for this time of the year with the exception of the East
Coast, which is experiencing a wet "dry". The quality and quantity of water
and pasture in the Bowen district is steadily declining, but there should be
no trouble as long as the season breaks at the usual time. Far northern and
gulf shires generally have adequate dry feed, but are vulnerable to fires. The
West region has experienced minimal rainfall with the small area north of Julia
Creek experiencing deteriorated seasonal conditions. There has been a notable
increase in the number of Individually Declared Property (IDP) applications
received in the west region. In the South-east conditions remained mild, with
good rainfall recorded to ensure promising prospects for winter crops. Agricultural
production continues to improve in the South with expectations for above average
yields. The western portion of the region has had the advantage of two good
planting seasons. Nevertheless patchy summer rainfall and an early end to the
wet season in some areas has led to declining seasonal conditions on some properties.
Consequently, 84 properties in 14 shires remain drought declared under Individual
Droughted Property (IDP) provisions. These declarations represent less than
one per cent of the land area of the State.
REGIONAL SUMMARIES North Region: Near-normal
conditions were experienced by most of the north. Ideal growing conditions have
been experienced by most horticultural industries, with cooler temperatures
slowing production of some commodities. There is still a large quantity of poor
quality pasture in the majority of North Queensland grazing areas. Supplementary
feeding programs have commenced in many areas to slow weight losses particularly
in lactating cows. There are abnormally high numbers of calves dropping for
this time of the year. Producers in this position are relying on early storms
to prevent losses. The wet conditions on the East Coast have impacted on the
cane harvest.
West Region: Generally the effects
of the late winter period are progressing normally throughout the region. Rainfall
has been minimal and some late frosts have been received. As expected, the drier
areas have continued to deteriorate ahead of the remainder of the region, but
it is a normal expectation for the pastures to deteriorate from this period
onwards, until after the first expected storms. IDP applications have been received
from the far southwestern area, west and south of Thargomindah and the northern
Winton district. Dry stock are holding their condition, but wet breeders with
calves/lambs at foot require supplementation to "hold-up" in this period.20
Central Region: Below average rainfall
fell in most of the central region with only isolated storms of around 100 mm
in the Rockhampton area towards the end of the month. The water situation has
not changed markedly and water storage is near full in readiness for the coming
irrigation season. The pasture situation has deteriorated in most parts of the
region, with producers looking to storms to start the spring season. Stock water
storage is under some pressure in some areas and will need replenishment in
the next couple of months. The majority of stock in the central region is in
fair condition for this time of the year. South-East Region: The month of August
has been favourable for all inland districts. On the coast horticulture and
cane crops have continued to suffer from wet conditions. Generally winter weather
conditions have been milder than normal with few frosts. Inland areas have received
enough rainfall to ensure good prospects for winter crop yields and pastures.20
South Region: Rainfall recorded within the region was between15-50mm. The winter
crop has had sufficient rain for at least average yields, in most areas. Crops
in the eastern parts benefited from rain late in the month. There is sufficient
carry over pasture available to maintain stock condition.
LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES
North Region: With the exception of
the northern section of the East Coast, which is experiencing a wet "dry", most
of the north region is in dry season mode. Stock condition is excellent to fair
in most of the northern district, although stock condition is the Georgetown
area is declining and requires early season storms to help the situation. Pasture
has plenty of bulk but protein levels are declining rapidly. Water supplies
are adequate and should see the season through.20
West Region: Stock from the Cooper
Channel country are in excellent condition as they move to abattoir destinations
on the coast. Dry stock are holding their condition but wet cows with calves
at foot are slipping in condition. Supplementation will reduce the slide in
condition of this class of stock. Generally there is sufficient dry bulk feed
available and producers are supplementing stock to utilise this feed. The available
dry feed plus the provision of supplements will be sufficient to maintain stock
condition.
Central Region: Stock condition is
as good as could be expected for this time of the year, although wet cows are
doing it tough and supplementary feeding to cattle as needed. It appears to
be warming up now and hopefully the storms at the end of August are a sign of
things to come and rain keeps falling. On the whole most properties are doing
OK and waiting for a good spring as the grass is trying to grow already in a
lot of areas. Pasture condition is beginning to slip in some areas of the region,
with producers looking forward to an early break in spring to kick the season
off.
South-East Region: Milder winter temperatures
have helped stock maintain better condition than is normal for this time of
year. Districts such as Yarraman, Boonah, Bundaberg, Gympie, Murgon Beaudesert
and Moreton all report stock to be in very good to good condition. Some breeders
on forest country are in lighter condition but this is to be expected during
winter. In most districts grasses have hayed off and have minimal nutrition
but this is normal for this time. In the Boonah district there is a fair to
good body of pasture for this time of the year. In all districts there are adequate
pastures supplies for the immediate future.
South Region: The rainfall and subsequent
pasture production, through the summer and early autumn months, has ensured
continued livestock production. Grazing animals have maintained average body
condition with drought feeding not being necessary in the region. Winter herbages
have grown in reasonable supplies over much of the Region. Most areas recorded
significant pasture growth prior to winter and although the quality of pasture
has deteriorated due to frosting routine supplementation is occurring in many
areas to take advantage of standing dry feed.
CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE
North Region:20 Cooler weather at
the end of July/start of August period has slowed production of many horticultural
commodities. Although this has resulted in a decrease in yield, it has had a
positive affect on the market in a year where oversupply has kept market prices
low. Planting in the Herbert River area over the last month has had limited
interruptions, with most planting now complete. The silver leafed whitefly is
causing some concern particularly with its ability to develop strains resistant
to pesticides. There has been some holdups with the cane crushing season which
is expected to be completed by November, although CCS levels remain below average.
Central Region: With little rain recorded
throughout August this has not been the month that many had hoped for. Many
of the wheat crops planted in July are now suffering severe moisture stress
and the prospect of crop failure is likely. It is likely that many growers who
did not have the opportunity to plant a winter crop will aim for spring crop
planting. With sorghum prices low, mungbean is likely to be a popular choice.
The mild winter has been kind on mice and rats, and populations are causing
real problems in isolated hotspots. Producers in these areas are burning to
reduce shelter levels. Proserpine Mill had processed 1 205 156 tonnes, or fifty
nine percent of the estimated crop, with a ccs average of 12.78. A good production
year will be appreciated in the light of poor price outlooks for this and next
year at least.
South-East Region: In the Burnett,
winter crops were planted later than normal on minimal sub-soil moisture which
was of great concern for many producers. However rainfall during the month has
ensured that most crops will continue to grow. Cane areas continue to be hampered
by wet conditions and this has the potential to increase the length of the cane
season by a considerable amount of time. In the Bundaberg district, crops of
snow peas, cherry tomatoes, button squash and zucchinis are now planted. In
the Gatton district conditions have been mild and favourable for small crop
production. Rainfall has been adequate to date with only supplementary irrigation
being needed for most crops. In the Nambour district there has been excess rainfall
that has affected crop harvesting and has caused an increase in proliferation
of diseases20
South Region: Good sub-soil moisture
levels are evident in many areas and expectations are for above average yields
this year. The western portion of the Region is progressing quite well and has
had the advantage of two good planting opportunities. The first plantings of
early May are progressing well. The western areas missed out on the useful rainfalls
late in the month, which fell over the eastern Downs. A task force has been
developed to upgrade the profile of the work Farming Systems Institute (FSI)
is undertaking in developing yellow spot control options. Vegetable cropping
continues without any problems with water supply. Dams are full, which should
set up the irrigation supplies for next fruit crop season.
RAINFALL
North Region: As would be expected,
monthly rainfall totals tapered off and were zero in many inland areas. However,
water supplies are generally in a good condition. Atherton received 44mm, Babinda
239mm, Innisfail 234mm, Tully 200mm, Cairns 66mm, Townsville 6mm, Bowen 2mm,
Charters Towers 0mm, Herberton 28mm, Malanda 57mm, Ingham 42mm and Georgetown
0mm.
West Region: While generally dry conditions
have continued, moderate rainfall totals were recorded in several parts of the
region. Heavier rain fell in the eastern part of the region with falls of between
25 -50 in the south-eastern portion and 10-25mm elsewhere. Birdsville recorded
11mm, Boulia 0mm, Windorah 4mm, Eromanga 3mm Augathella 16mm, Charleville 16mm,
Longreach 0mm, Muttaburra 1mm, Winton 0mm, Cloncurry 0mm and Mt Isa 0mm.
Central Region: Below average rainfall
across the Central West Region has provided little benefit. There were unofficial
reports of over 100 mm in scattered storms to the north and west of Rockhampton.
Alpha recorded 0.6mm, Clermont 2mm, Springsure 9mm, Mackay 13mm, Proserpine
21mm, Rockhampton 11mm, Biloela 6mm, Theodore 14mm, Calliope 6mm, Miriam Vale
N/A and Gladstone 4mm.
South-East Region: Conditions over
most of the area continue to remain excellent. Winter rainfall exceeded expectations
with some areas receiving to much rain. Eidsvold recorded 23mm, Gayndah 19mm,
Mundubbera 49mm, Esk 64mm, Kingaroy 24mm, Kilkivan 14mm, Murgon 13mm, Proston
7mm, Nanango 27mm, and Beaudesert 47mm. On the coastal fringe Bundaberg received
34mm, Nambour 71mm, Tewantin 112mm and Maryborough 35mm.20
South Region: Rainfall received varied
between the major centres with most centres receiving average rainfall. Dalby
recorded 8mm, Oakey 4mm, Toowoomba 34mm, Inglewood 12mm, Pittsworth 25mm, Clifton
23mm, Warwick 31mm, Stanthorpe 42mm, Roma 9mm, Goondiwindi 47mm and St George
14mm.
WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES
The latest Water Storage Report issued
by the Department of Natural Resources is attached.
North Region: A belt incorporating
Mossman through to Cardwell, extending west to the gulf received above average
rain. Coastal areas north of Cape Flattery along the eastern areas Cape York
Peninsula received below average rain, as did Charters Towers and surrounding
areas.
West Region: Streamflows throughout
the central west region are declining or zero except in the north east parts.
Some centres have reported falls of up to 100mm although the rain has been patchy
elsewhere with little rain reported from around the other western centres. Groundwater
in most districts has made only modest recovery. Demand for irrigation water
has been low in all areas. Overall, a lot more rain is needed to raise groundwater
levels to anywhere near the levels recorded in the seventies.
Central Region: Seasonal dry conditions
have continued in the Central Region during August. There was some relief late
in the month when isolated thunderstorms moved through the Rockhampton area.
The rainfall did not result in any runoff or increases in water storages. Small
base flows are prevailing in the Connors, Pioneer and neighbouring streams.
Water storages in the Region are holding very good volumes of water in readiness
for the irrigation season that commenced in August. Demand for irrigation water
has been highest in the Emerald and Theodore areas where growers are prewatering
for cotton. Groundwater levels have been static or falling. 20
South-East Region: Rainfall along
the coastal fringe has been far greater than inland areas, but in spite of this
many centres across the region received better than average rainfall. Many creeks
and watercourses have run across the region particularly in coastal areas. Good
seasonal rainfall has ensured that most water sources in the district have been
replenished. Soil moisture levels are good in tilling areas and grass coverage
is strong in most grazing districts.
South Region: Heavier rain fell in
the eastern part of the Region with falls of between 25 -50mm and 10-25mm elsewhere.
The Condamine and Border Rivers remained in recessional mode for the month.
The Weir and Moonie Rivers receded to very low flows. The Macintyre River system
has maintained a good base flow despite the drier seasonal conditions. Storage
levels in most groundwater aquifer systems are stable although the main alluvial
aquifer associated with the Condamine River on the eastern downs remains in
a depleted state. Work on developing a model to aid management of Great Artesian
Basin in the Border Rivers District has begun.20
OUTLOOK
The average SOI over the last 30 days
was +2.3. Based on recent trends in the SOI, the probabilities of exceeding
median rainfall during the total September to November period are around 50%
in the eastern states of Australia. Colder-than-normal, equatorial sea surface
temperatures are still present around the International Dateline to the central
Pacific Ocean, and in most of the eastern Pacific. Sea surface temperatures
in the Pacific continue to reflect a very weak La NiF1a pattern, which will
result in reduced rainfall for our trade competitors in south-western USA, Argentina
and central Asia.
The likelihood of above-average pasture
growth during the September to November period is high for much of Queensland,
due to good rainfall prospects, and also due to excellent soil moisture levels
in parts of the south-eastern corner. 20 The next passage of the 30-50 day oscillation
is expected about the second week of September.20
The attached "Summary of Seasonal
Conditions" report shows the total rainfall over Queensland during August, together
with maps of rainfall relative to historical records for the last three months
and the last twelve months.
Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY
Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454
National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)
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The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries. |
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