DROUGHT SITUATION REPORT
DECEMBER 1999
OUTLOOK
The average Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) over the
previous 30 days has risen to +10.5. Based on the SOI, the probabilities of
exceeding median rainfall during the total period from January to March range
mainly between 50 and 80% for much of Queensland. Probabilities of exceeding
median rainfall are 60-80% in the Central Highlands and central coast of Queensland.
The continuing 'cool' sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies
in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean combined with 'warm' SST anomalies around
Western Australia suggest a continuing 'weak' La Nina pattern. There is no clear
message coming from the experimental models regarding the development of the
La Nina over the next 6 months. The forecasts of ocean conditions six months
from now (June 2000) range from La Nina through Neutral to El Nino conditions.
By September 2000 the majority of models suggest Neutral conditions are most
likely.
Combining the rainfall outlook with current soil water
and pasture condition, the probabilities of above-median pasture growth during
the total December-February period are 70-100% over Queensland except for the
far central west.
STATE OVERVIEW
Generally average to above average rainfall fell across
the State but in some areas, particularly in the Central Region, it was variable
and isolated. Conditions across the State are generally good with stock and
pasture condition improving and with little need for supplementary feeding.
The cattle market is generally strong. However, follow up rain is essential
to promote pasture growth and prevent it from burning off. The cooler weather
has slowed down the growth of pasture somewhat but this has been balanced by
lower evaporation rates. Currently 112 properties in 17 shires are drought declared
under IDP provisions, which is an increase of two properties (both in the Eidsvold
area) from the November figures. These declarations represent less than one
percent of the land area of the State.
REGIONAL SUMMARIES
North Region: Average or above rainfall was received by
most of the north during December, with the exception of parts of both Cape
York and the Rangelands. While the rain was patchy in places, most grazing areas
are now reporting conditions good enough to arrest any stock losses. Conditions
for cropping were good, apart from being too wet in some cane growing areas.
West Region: Generally the rainfall during late November
and early December has promoted quality pasture growth and given a boost to
the hopes of an above average new season. However, follow-up rains are needed
now, to prevent this new growth from burning off. Normal late spring/early summer
conditions are prevailing with early storms providing relief in some areas.
Stock are holding condition and in a majority of cases are improving.
Central Region: Rainfall was variable and isolated with
the same areas including Bauhinia, Marlborough, Mt Morgan and Southern Duaringa
Shires missing the bulk of the falls. Stock and pasture condition are improving
in most areas and if rain is received in the cropping areas in the near future,
planting will occur. Further falls are required, particularly in the Central
Highlands where most growers have had less than 350mm of rain recorded for the
year. There is a strong cattle market and cheap grain available for supplementary
feeding.
South-East Region: The month of December has generally
been favourable for all districts. Summer weather conditions have continued
to be mild with very few hot days. Rainfall has been good in most districts
except for those areas in the North Burnett that still have IDPs. The cold weather
has slowed the growth rates of summer crops.
South Region: Rainfall recorded within the region up until
24 December ranged from 25-100mm with the highest falls on the eastern Downs.
Pasture and crops will have benefited from the widespread rain. Meat commodity
prices remain at respectable levels.
LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES
North Region: All Stock Districts received fair to good
rainfall mainly in the latter part of the month. All areas are in fair shape
with the areas which received earlier rains in very good condition. Stock are
rapidly improving in all districts with wet cows being in the worst condition.
Stock losses should now cease, and with reasonable back-up rainfall over the
"wet", stock will continue to improve and supplies of slaughter stock should
enable an early start to the season. Two Individual Droughted Property applications
for Bowen Shire were received but may be withdrawn following good early rain.
West Region: Generally the Region has received beneficial
rains. However, isolated areas such as around Richmond, south of Hughenden and
east of Julia Creek have missed these falls and the Boulia area remains patchy.
Follow up falls are required to prevent new pastures from burning off during
the incoming early summer heat. Stock generally are holding or improving in
condition. The Central West is in excellent condition for the beginning of the
new season and the South West area is improving following the recent rains.
The majority of the Barcoo, Quilpie, Paroo and Bulloo Shires have received very
beneficial falls.
Central Region: The livestock situation has improved in
coastal areas where rainfall has fallen during the month, relieving the dry
conditions that had prevailed at the start of Spring. Further rainfall is needed
over the summer to produce a body of feed. Stock condition continues to improve
over the bulk of the region apart from small patches where Spring rainfall has
been insufficient to produce adequate pastures. However, pasture quality and
quantity continues to improve in most areas but further summer rainfall is required
across the region.
South-East Region: Districts such as Yarraman, Beaudesert,
Bundaberg, Gympie and Kingaroy all report stock to be in fair to very good condition.
Stock numbers moving to sale have slowed with the traditional wind down of meatworks
and with the better conditions, producers are opting to retain stock. Store
and prime cattle markets continue to be strong due to good feed supplies in
many cases. No feeding is known to be taking place in the Region. Warm conditions
have ensured that the great majority areas in the region have very good pastures
but pasture quantity is still short in many areas with only overstocked properties
being completely bare.
South Region: Rainfall during the month resulted in substantial
pasture growth and grazing animals have maintained average body condition. Cattle
prices remain buoyant and the good prices meant quite large movements to sale.
The summer season looks favourable for rain and continued high meat commodity
prices. Other than a few isolated places in the west of the Region there has
been little need for supplementary feeding. The rain and warm weather have stimulated
the growth of summer pasture species in most parts of the Region and the flush
of new pasture has resulted from the widespread rain.
CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE
North Region: With the fallow season in place, good rain
after Christmas was timely for soil moisture and establishing cover crops in
the Bowen/Burdekin district. In the wet tropics, December delivered ideal growing
conditions for bananas with high production the result. However, because of
the cyclone earlier in the year, production in affected areas is synchronised
and a glut exists at this time. With good rain and some patchy storms planting
of the peanut and maize crops on the Atherton Tablelands escalated. Wet conditions
continued in cane growing areas of the tropical coast, further disrupting operations
such as land-levelling, drainage works, weed control, fertilising and closing
in late-cut cane. Rats continue to be a problem in many cane growing areas.
Central Region: It was a dry month in the Dawson/Callide,
with only a few areas reporting useful rainfall. It has been cooler than normal
and this has reduced evapotranspiration in those crops planted but has also
reduced growth rates. Most crops already planted have a full profile of moisture
and are progressing reasonably well with only a few crops planted on marginal
subsoil moisture suffering moisture stress. A significant proportion of the
summer crop is yet to be planted and will most likely consist of sorghum, mungbeans
and some corn, despite poor prices.
South-East Region: In the Burnett, many summer crops have
already been planted, including a great majority of the peanut crop. In the
Maryborough Mill area up to 7 weeks of crushing for cane has been lost due to
wet weather. Some cane will be left as standover for next season due to the
wet conditions and the poor ratoon growth of cane cut very late in the year.
In the Bundaberg district, horticulture is now at its peak production period
for a wide range of crops. In the Gatton district, conditions have been mild
and favourable for small crop production. Potato crops have now finished harvesting
with prices kept down due to competition from earlier than normal crops in other
areas. In the Nambour district there has been anthracnose in avocadoes and many
growers are now treating early for this problem. Stonefruit have almost finished
harvesting and mango flowering has occurred earlier than normal due to the mild
conditions.
South Region: Summer crops have had average to above rainfall
over the last couple of months. This situation, as well as encouraging prospects
for summer rain, should assist the yield potential. October storms reduced the
fruit and vegetable crop but vegetables were replanted and have now made their
way to market. The stonefruit harvest has begun in earnest, to meet the profitable
Christmas demand.
RAINFALL
North Region: Atherton received 207mm, Babinda 662mm,
Cairns 206mm, Herberton 220mm, Malanda 275mm, Ingham 286mm, Innisfail 577mm,
Townsville 147mm, Tully 299mm, Bowen 168mm, Charters Towers 122mm and Georgetown
214mm.
West Region: Birdsville recorded 67mm, Boulia 90mm, Windorah
74mm, Cloncurry n/a, Mt Isa 90mm, Longreach 109mm, Muttaburra 26mm, Winton 95mm,
Eromanga 116mm, Augathella 58mm and Charleville 116mm.
Central Region: Alpha recorded 17mm, Clermont 92mm, Springsure
46mm, Mackay 225mm, Rockhampton n/a, Proserpine 229mm, Biloela 40mm, Calliope
n/a, Gladstone 137mm, Miriam Vale n/a and Theodore 12mm.
South-East Region: Eidsvold recorded 42mm, Gayndah 39mm,
Mundubbera 34mm, Esk 188mm, Kilkivan 166mm, Kingaroy 125mm, Murgon 88mm, Nanango
131mm, Proston 65mm, and Beaudesert 158mm. On the coastal fringe Bundaberg received
142mm, Maryborough 130mm, Nambour 266mm and Tewantin 177mm.
South Region: During November Clifton recorded 139mm,
Dalby 124mm, Goondiwindi 77mm, Inglewood 76mm, Oakey 110mm, Pittsworth 156mm,
Stanthorpe 98mm, Toowoomba 140mm, Warwick 144mm, Roma 122mm, St George 84mm
and Taroom 51mm.
WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES
North Region: Most water storages are at capacity and
recent rain has replenished stock water supplies. This has provided water security
for the immediate future.
West Region: Generally water supplies are adequate, although
there are some reports of local property dam storages being dry or low.
Central Region: Good rain fell across the bulk of the
region during December but there was only minor streamflow as a result. Water
storages have received minimal inflows. The Dawson, Central Highlands and the
Rockhampton areas had well below average rainfall while the northern and western
areas fared better. As the irrigation season continues, the Emerald area is
assured of good supplies but the Dawson area around Theodore will need some
streamflows over the next few months. Streams around Mackay are under irrigation
pressure and would benefit from Spring rain.
South-East Region: Rainfall along the coastal fringe has
been far greater than inland areas, but in spite of this many centres across
the region received average rainfall. Many creeks and watercourses have continued
to run across the region particularly in coastal areas. Farm dams in most districts
are full to two thirds full. The Lockyer Valley continues to have low water
storages with Bill Gunn Dam and Lake Clarendon at low levels. All districts
now report good to excellent surface water supplies. Underground supplies have
been replenished in some areas but generally it will take considerable rainfall
to fully return these reserves to former levels.
South Region: The rain influences caused some minor flooding
in the upper Condamine and tributaries. The middle and lower reaches of the
Condamine and the Balonne Rivers runoff volumes improved this month. All areas
have adequate supplies of stock water except for Mitchell. The hotter conditions
have led to an increased demand for irrigation supplies. Consequently water
levels in alluvial and sandstone aquifers are gradually declining. Some recharge
was recorded in the fractured vesicular volcanic rock systems due to favourable
seasons. Most major storages are in a good position. The good seasonal rainfall
ensured that most water sources in the district were replenished.
Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY
Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454
National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)
 |
The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries. |
| 
