DROUGHT SITUATION REPORT
JANUARY 1999
During January, the Shires of Murgon (4/1/99), Nebo (14/1/99),
and Broadsound (part Shire west of Connors Range) (14/1/99) were revoked from
the Queensland Drought list.
At the end of January 1999, 13 shires and 2 part shires
remain drought declared along with 95 Individually Droughted Properties (IDPs)
in a further 20 shires. These declarations represent approximately 7.8% of the
land area of the State or 7,788 out of the 55,545 Department of Primary Industries
registered livestock enterprises.
REGIONAL SUMMARIES
North Region: The North is free from drought, with good
conditions prevailing and an outlook suggesting "normal" rain over the next
three months. One area of concern is the prolonged growth period for tropical
pastures, with a reduction in quality likely. Cropping is generally progressing
normally, except on the wet tropical coast, where wet conditions have forced
some changes to management practices. Some peanut crops have been planted early
on the Tablelands, to utilise early season soil moisture. Stock are in good
to excellent to good condition throughout the region
West Region: Good rain came as a follow-up to good early
summer rain across most of the region. Some areas received only light rain,
and are feeling the effects of the hot dry conditions experienced over the final
three weeks of January. Generally, producers have the best pasture conditions
seen for some time.
Central Region: Rainfall for the month was generally average
across much of the region. Stock and pasture are in excellent condition for
this time of year, and are likely to remain so for the next few months. Summer
crop plantings have been delayed by wet paddocks, but farmers were generally
able to recommence late in the month. Locusts have been a problem in cropping
areas, resulting in increased costs to control and potential loss of production.
Irrigation and stock water supplies are secure through most parts of the region.
South-East Region: The region has received variable rainfall throughout January,
with most drought declared shires receiving useful rainfall. The condition of
stock throughout the region ranges from good to excellent, with the quality
and quantity of pastures also being good to excellent. In coastal areas, however,
pasture quality may be reduced through excessive growth. Surface water supplies,
however, continue to remain critically low in some areas, with major and minor
storages very low.
South Region: Storm rain has fallen extensively, although
there are areas that have not received any useful rain. Major surface water
storages have been supplemented by run-off from the storms. Groundwater levels
in the region remain stable. Stock are in an average to above average condition.
Cropping activities continue, with a definite trend towards mung beans, due
to ergot problems and price expectations with sorghum.
LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES
North Region: The North region has started the year with
the best conditions since 1992. Pasture supplies are good to excellent in all
areas. Stock are in good to excellent condition in all areas, with slaughter
cattle already in good supply and filling meatworks capacity. One area of concern
is the prolonged growth of tropical pastures, with quality likely to be reduced.
West Region: Pasture response to the rainfall received
in the area has been excellent, and stock have started to gain condition. The
region west of Boulia continues to remain a notable exception, with little rainfall
relief being received. In the south west, pastures have been very dry, and as
winter promoted heavy growths of herbage, the recent hot weather has burnt the
remaining pastures off.
Central Region: With widespread rain received throughout
the region, pasture is in good condition right throughout the district, with
even the worse off areas having feed. In areas with improved pastures, the response
to rain has been excellent, with quantity and quality of feed being very good.
Stock condition throughout the region is very good.
South-East Region: Rain received across the region has
done much to improve pastures. Quality and quantity of pasture is very good.
Some pastures dried off considerably during January, but recent rain has rectified
this situation. There are some areas that have missed out on good rainfall and
quantity of pasture is less than hoped for. Coastal areas receiving very high
rainfall have found that pasture is becoming overgrown and rank, resulting in
a loss of pasture quality. Stock condition across the region ranges from good
to excellent. An all areas there is enough short green feed to provide stock
with adequate nutrition to improve in condition.
South Region: The excellent rainfall through the spring
and summer months has ensured continued livestock production. Grazing animals
have maintained average to above average body condition. The hot wet weather
has encouraged summer pasture growth. Pasture models indicate excellent pasture
growth for the next three months.
CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE
North Region: Land preparation has commenced around Bowen
for the upcoming season. The last half of January was dry, and rain for soil
moisture and irrigation supplies would be welcomed. On the Atherton Tableland,
summer crops continued to be planted, due to the availability of good soil moisture.
Cane growing areas in the North continued to receive average or better rain
ahead of the new planting season. The effects of excessively wet conditions
last year have carried over, and will be reflected in the amount of cane ploughed
out for replanting, variety selection and returns from ratoon crops.
Central Region: Established sorghum and mung bean crops
improved considerably in the Dawson/Callide as a result of the good rain which
fell during the first and last weeks of the month. Some mung bean crops that
were close to harvest have suffered loss of quality from the delay. Dryland
cotton is in excellent condition and has minimal insect pressure. In this area,
the rain has sparked plantings of mung beans and other short duration crops.
In the Central Highlands, erratic rainfall has occurred, but some farmers have
planted sorghum, corn, sunflower and mung beans. The rain is providing ideal
conditions for migratory locusts, which are on the verge of plague populations.
Successive generations are proving costly for landholders. The sugar crop in
the Proserpine area is in excellent condition, with an above average crop expected.
South-East Region: In the South Burnett there has been
a planting of 14 - 16,000 ha of peanuts, with most crops doing well. A dry period
during the month caused some stresses in the Mannuem district west of Kumbia.
If current weather conditions continue, the risk of aflatoxins will be decreased.
Sunflowers have been extensively planted in the area and results have been favourable
with the first crops to be harvested in the next two weeks. Prices for growers
that locked into early contracts are excellent compared to other grains. Sorghum
crops have done well. Yields are estimated in the 6 - 8 tonne/ha mark, but the
outlook for prices is not good. Local corn crops are faring well despite some
crops being stressed due to the hot conditions mid-month. There has been an
increased planting of mung, adzuki and navy beans this year with an area of
up to 2500 ha planted. Low heliothis pressure on crops this season has been
helpful.
South Region: Widespread plantings of mung beans has been
recorded in southern Queensland this summer. In comparison, sorghum plantings
are limited due to price expectations. Some spring planted sorghum has been
harvested and has suffered a yield and quality penalty due to small grain. A
hot dry finish in December has been blamed for this. Also there is a reluctance
to plant late sorghum due to threat of ergot. The maize area has been reduced
because of the low demand from gritting miller (who supply Kelloggs) and low
prices on offer.
RAINFALL
North Region: Significant parts of the region had average
rainfall, whilst other areas received considerably less. Atherton received 353mm,
Babinda 548mm, Innisfail 781mm, Tully 539mm, Cairns 316mm, Townsville 153mm,
Bowen 147mm, Charters Towers 225mm, Herberton 226mm, Malanda 236mm, Croydon
215 and Georgetown 130mm.
West Region: Some parts of the region recorded quite heavy
rainfall, but others recorded no rainfall. Blackall recorded 82mm, Barcaldine
95mm, Charleville 99mm, Cunnamulla 55mm, Birdsville 4mm, Boulia 45mm, Windorah
79mm, Longreach 93mm, Muttaburra 183mm, Winton 94mm, Hughenden 95mm, Cloncurry
403mm and Mt Isa 228mm.
Central Region: Although typical wet season activity has
been low, there have been showers and storms across the region. Alpha recorded
148mm, Blackwater 44mm, Clermont 273mm, Dingo 71mm, Springsure 134mm, Mackay
234mm, Proserpine 448mm, Rockhampton 88mm, Banana 111mm, Biloela 183mm, Theodore
26mm, Miriam Vale 138mm and Gladstone 194mm.
South-East Region: Rainfall has varied greatly but generally
most districts have received 25mm of rain, and up to 40 mm in the latter part
of the month. Totals include Eidsvold 50mm, Gayndah 28mm, Gympie 165mm, Mundubbera
51mm, Esk 170mm, Kingaroy 70mm, Proston 64mm, Nanango 106mm, Gatton 109mm and
Beaudesert 157mm. On the coastal fringe Bundaberg received 129mm, Nambour 207mm
and Maryborough 161mm.
South Region: Much of the Region again received useful
rainfall. Totals include Dalby 96mm, Bell 53mm, Oakey 79mm, Jondaryan 48mm,
Toowoomba 63mm, Inglewood 98mm, Pittsworth 105mm, Clifton 20mm, Warwick 68mm,
Stanthorpe 67mm, Roma 112mm, Goondiwindi 148mm and St George 94mm.
WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES
North Region: Continued rainfall has maintained the Region's
major storages at or close to capacity. Stock water supplies are expected to
be sufficient for the upcoming season. Underground water supplies remain variable
in the Bowen and Burdekin areas where bores still have not returned to pre-drought
levels. A prolonged wet season, with associated flooding, will still be required
to bring about full recovery of the underground water supplies in these areas.
West Region: Recent floods in major water courses have
provided abundant supplies. All major water courses in the area have had significant
flows and in particular, the Diamantina River has delivered excellent overflows
down its channels.
Central Region: With scattered showers and storms across
the region during January, water storage facilities remained constant with some
minor inflows causing rises in flows and current volumes throughout the area.
Water harvesting has been permitted in the Fitzroy, Dawson and Mackenzie Rivers
for most of January. The minor storages in the region remain full or near full,
but major storages need further replenishment. The total inflow to Fairbairn
Dam during winter and spring totals over 500,00 megalitres, which is above the
mean annual flow. This amount of inflow will ensure that there is a good allocation
of irrigation water for 1999/2000. Stockwater is in good condition throughout
the region.
South-East Region: Farm dams in the Kilcoy and northern
and western parts of the Esk Shire and two-thirds full or full. In the remaining
part of the Esk Shire farm dam levels are low. Surface water is variable across
the region depending on storm rainfalls. There are still dams on properties
that are not yet full in many districts. These properties are generally on heavy
soil types and require high intensity rainfall run-off to fill. Underground
supplies that are in short supply still require good flows in creeks for replenishment.
Underground water in the Lowood/Coominya area is at or near record low levels.
South Region: Groundwater levels in the Region generally
remain stable. There was some recharge in the Condamine alluvial aquifer and
alluvial aquifers associated with the tributary streams. The main deep alluvial
aquifers associated with the Macintyre River recorded a slight fall in water
levels since last month. The basalt and sandstone aquifers in upland areas on
the south east section remain relatively static. Stock and domestic supplies
from groundwater resources remain secure. Most major surface storage facilities
are at or near capacity, with the exception being Leslie Dam at Warwick with
a current holding of 65%.
OUTLOOK
The average SOI over the last 90 days (as at 3 February
1999) was +13.9. The probabilities of exceeding median rainfall during February
to April period are "normal" in most parts of the eastern States of Australia.
However, the probabilities of exceeding median rainfall over those three months
are 60 - 70% in many coastal districts of Queensland and NSW, southern Cape
York Peninsula, parts of central-western and far central-western Queensland.
The next passage of the 30- to 50- day Oscillation is due within the first two
weeks of February.
There is a strong possibility of high potential yields
from dryland and irrigated cotton this year, providing effective insect and
disease control is achieved. The probabilities of above average growth during
the January - March period are high (60 - 90%) for much of Queensland; this
may result in pasture being poorer than usual. However, the favourable outlook
may provide opportunities for burning native pasture and sowing improved pasture.
Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY
Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454
National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)
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The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries. |
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