DROUGHT SITUATION REPORT
JULY 1999
Recognising that much of the State has experienced a significant
improvement in seasonal conditions, during the last twelve months, the Federal
Minister for Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry, announced the revocation of
Queensland's remaining Drought Exceptional Circumstances (DEC) areas as of 30
June 1999.
Nevertheless patchy summer rainfall and an early end to
the wet season in some areas has led to declining seasonal conditions on some
properties. Consequently, 65 properties in 13 shires remain drought declared
under Individual Droughted Property (IDP) provisions. These declarations represent
less than one per cent of the land area of the State.
REGIONAL SUMMARIES
North Region: Conditions across much of the region remain
good although pastures in many areas have hayed off during the month. Several
large fires have signalled an early start to burning-off and some producers
are concerned that the volume of dry standing pasture will pose a significant
fire threat later in the year.
West Region: Winter rainfall has been minimal except in
southern parts and consequently pastures in most areas continue to hay off.
Several areas remain quite dry including much of the far south west, the Channel
Country and an area to the north of Julia Creek. Nevertheless the majority of
the region continues to experience a good season.
Central Region: Planting rains failed to materialise in
many areas of the region resulting in reduced plantings of winter cereals. This
will impact on farm incomes later in the year and comes as another blow for
grain growers whose crops were affected by last year's wet winter and spring.
Apart from some drier areas around Rockhampton much of the region is well placed
for feed and water reserves for the winter period.
South-East Region: Cooler temperatures resulted in a significant
number of frosts early in the month. Rainfall later in the month provided grain
growers with planting opportunities albeit late. Many coastal areas again received
significant rainfall. In the cane growing areas harvesting delays and downgrading
of the crop will result without lengthy periods of fine weather during the next
few months.
South Region: Widespread frosts during the month hayed
off much of the dry standing pasture and affected pasture quality. Nevertheless
most areas should have sufficient pasture reserves to carry stock through the
winter period. With the exception of some centres on the Eastern Downs most
areas received sufficient planting rain although it came a little late for some
growers. Good sub-soil moisture levels are evident in many areas and expectations
are for above average yields this year.
LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES
North Region: Livestock are generally in good to excellent
condition although lactating cows are displaying typical dry season slippage
as the protein content of pastures decline. Conditions in the majority of extensive
grazing areas continue to be considered good, because of the bulk of feed available.
This has dried rapidly however, and supplementary feeding isn't far off.
West Region: Normal dry season conditions prevail across
much of the region with the exception of some areas around Charleville and Cunnamulla
where recent storms have germinated winter herbage. With the exception of an
area to the south and west of Boulia, an area to the north of Julia Creek and
some properties to the south of Richmond, most areas should have sufficient
pasture reserves to carry stock through the winter period. Accordingly stock
are in fair to good condition although some lines of lactating females are exhibiting
normal dry season decline as pasture protein levels fall.
Central Region: The majority of livestock are in good
to excellent condition, although some lines of females have slipped a bit as
pasture protein levels decline. There are a few pockets of poor cattle, with
a little area north of Jericho exhibiting some stress. The quality of pasture
is variable, however the quantity is high in most areas. The lack of rain in
the last month or so had hayed off most of the grass and frosts have exacerbated
this in the colder areas. Depending on the quantity of rain that fell at the
end of the month some pastures may pick up, but in many cases protein leaching
will have occurred.
South-East Region: Pasture quantity in many areas is still
good despite frosts and lack of early winter rain. There are however areas in
the North Burnett that are still quite dry with very little pasture quality
and quantity. Early frosts have decreased the quality of pasture in many inland
areas. Southern areas of the region around Ipswich and south have had their
best pasture growth for many years. In these areas light showers through the
month have kept paddock feed green.
South Region: Widespread summer rainfall ensured that
most areas have adequate feed supplies for the winter period. Recent frosts
have reduced pasture quality although routine supplementation should prevent
stock from slipping in condition. The excellent rainfall through the summer
and early autumn months has ensured continued livestock production and most
animals have maintained average body condition. Whilst drought feeding has not
been necessary for the region some routine supplementary feeding with urea and
molasses has occurred as graziers take advantage of the dry feed that is currently
available.
CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE
North Region: Papaws and bananas on the wet tropical coast
continue to reflect the effects of adverse conditions over summer, including
Cyclone Rona, with a lot of emphasis on replanting. It will clearly be some
time before production levels return to normal. On the Atherton Tablelands and
in the Mareeba district, harvesting of the maize crop continued with some lodging
from earlier in the season still evident. Early reports suggest overall yield
is around average and quality might be up a little. This year's sugar harvest
got under-way this month, with growers hoping for minimal weather interruptions
in the hope that cane production to exceed that of last year.
Central Region: The wheat planting window has almost closed
in Central Queensland, although some growers are prepared to risk late plantings
if rain falls during early July. Some growers that took the chance to plant
into a dry seedbed and wait for rain to germinate the crop have been lucky enough
to get a crop established in most cases. However, significant in crop rain will
be required to see these crops through to maturity. Wheat is the only option
for planting now as it is considered to late for chickpeas. In a few cases paddocks
will be fallowed till spring rather than planting a late crop and risking rain
at harvest. Despite forecast low returns there will probably be a significant
spring sorghum crop if good rain falls in August or September.
South-East Region: Significant areas of country have now
been planted to winter crops. Most crops were planted on a closing window of
opportunity with minimal moisture. Some follow up rain has been received but
the crops will need continual rainfall throughout the growing season to reach
full potential due to lack of sub-soil moisture. In the Gayndah district there
have been excellent conditions for the citrus harvest. Dry weather has allowed
an uninterrupted harvest in what is shaping up to be an excellent year. In the
Nambour district the intense and continued wet periods have affected the harvesting
of many tree fruit crops and resulted in the proliferation of many fungal diseases.
South Region: With the exception of some areas on the Eastern Downs the majority
of the grain belt received some useful rain in mid and late June. Combined with
substantial soil moisture levels in most areas this virtually ensures that an
average sized winter cereal crop will be panted in Southern Queensland. Growers
in those areas that missed out on planting rains have until mid July, the end
of the winter planting window, to assess options and hope for rainfall. Vegetable
and fruit growers continue to experience a good season and expectations are
for substantial crop yields for these commodities later in the year.
RAINFALL
North Region: Effective rainfall was generally confined
to the coastal fringe and Tablelands. Atherton received 20mm, Babinda 249mm,
Innisfail 252mm, Tully 191mm, Cairns 34mm, Townsville 1mm, Bowen 0mm, Charters
Towers 0mm, Herberton 9mm, Malanda 36mm, Ingham 13mm and Georgetown 0mm.
West Region: With the exception of the south-west very
little useful rainfall was recorded in the region. Birdsville recorded 4mm,
Boulia 3mm, Windorah 13mm, Eromanga 30mm Augathella 38mm, Charleville 41mm,
Longreach 0mm, Muttaburra 1mm, Winton 0mm, Cloncurry 0mm and Mt Isa 0mm.
Central Region: Useful rainfall was recorded in some centres
with the better falls generally confined to the coastal fringe and associated
hinterland. Alpha recorded 21mm, Clermont 3mm, Springsure 77mm, Mackay 30mm,
Proserpine 20mm, Rockhampton 37mm, Biloela 102mm, Theodore 14mm, Calliope 35mm,
Miriam Vale 62mm and Gladstone 50mm.
South-East Region: Widespread rainfall occurred across
the region resulting in minor flooding in some coastal centres. Eidsvold recorded
86mm, Gayndah 46mm, Mundubbera 63mm, Esk 56mm, Kingaroy 68mm, Kilkivan 57mm,
Murgon 55mm, Proston 82mm, Nanango 63mm, and Beaudesert 73mm. On the coastal
fringe Bundaberg received 42mm, Nambour 243mm, Tewantin 336mm and Maryborough
93mm.
South Region: Rainfall during the month was quite variable
with most centres still requiring sufficient rainfall to plant winter crops.
Dalby recorded 34mm, Oakey 10mm, Toowoomba 29mm, Inglewood 12mm, Pittsworth
14mm, Clifton 15mm, Warwick 18, Stanthorpe 21mm, Roma 39mm, Goondiwindi 39mm
and St George 59mm.
WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES
North Region: Prolonged rainfall along much of the wet
tropical coast and associated hinterland has resulted in continuing flows in
many streams. The region's major water storages are at or close to capacity
and stock water supplies appear adequate for the remainder of the year. In the
Bowen area underground and surface water supplies for irrigation continue to
be sufficient to meet demand.
West Region: With the exception of some properties in
the Channel Country most areas have sufficient surface water supplies to carry
stock through to the end of the year. Nevertheless most properties have access
to underground water supplies and should have little difficulty in sourcing
water for livestock if surface supplies run out.
Central Region: Surface water supplies across most of
the region appear adequate for the short term. The exception remains the Lawgi
area where water supplies are short and consequently some producers may experience
shortages later in the year. The levels of the region's major water storages
remain variable and will only be alleviated by well above average rainfall.
Underground water supplies also remain variable although some areas have experienced
varying levels of recharge following significant rainfall and flooding last
year.
South-East Region: Stock water supplies in most districts
are better now then they have been for many years with exceptions being some
areas to the north of Monto and areas around Mt Perry. Fred Haigh and Waruma
Dams have received negligible inflow and are at 14% and 10%, of capacity, respectively.
Flows in all watercourses to the south of Maryborough have contributed to some
aquifer recharge. In comparison there has not been significant runoff in inland
catchments to the north of Maryborough or in inland areas.
South Region: The Weir and Moonie Rivers continue to experience
low stream flows. Rainfall during the month resulted in some stream rises in
the Maranoa, Warrego, Paroo and Bulloo Rivers. The drier conditions have led
to an increased demand for irrigation supplies in many areas. Nevertheless water
levels in many alluvial and sandstone aquifers remain stable or have risen.
In the Goondiwindi area, groundwater levels have recharged although use has
been low due to regular rainfall and good soil moisture levels. In most areas,
with the exception of an area north of Chinchilla, stock water supplies appear
sufficient for the winter months.
OUTLOOK
Colder than normal, equatorial sea-surface temperatures
are now present from around the International Dateline to the central Pacific
Ocean, and in most of the eastern Pacific. However, temperatures are now cooler
than normal in waters off Queensland and the Northern Territory. Sea surface
temperatures in the Pacific Ocean reflect a very weak La Nina pattern, although
some experimental models suggest re-strengthening of the pattern towards the
end of the year.
The average SOI over the last 30 days (as at 7 July 1999)
was +1.0. Based on recent trends in the SOI, the probability of exceeding median
rainfall during the July to September period is around 40% for most of Queensland.
The next passage of the 30 - 50 day oscillation is expected about mid July.
Rainfall prospects over the winter cropping areas of central
and southern Queensland are about average with the SOI Phase at the end of May
indicating slightly late frosts. However, the frost risk is generally very low
for crops planted during June.
Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY
Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454
National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)
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The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries. |
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