DROUGHT SITUATION REPORT
NOVEMBER 1999
The average SOI over the last 30 days was +9.3. Based
on the SOI, the probabilities of exceeding median rainfall during the total
period from November to January are quite variable, but remain around 50% in
much of the eastern States. In Queensland, the exceptions are parts of the central-west
where probabilities are 60-80%; and near the Queensland-NSW border where they
are 10-40%.
Sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean indicate
a weak La Nina pattern. However, the Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre (BMRC)
says temperatures in waters off the Australian coastline have increased considerably
during August-October and they are now mostly above average except in Queensland
where they are mainly normal. Most experimental models are suggesting that neutral
conditions will predominate by about April. The most recent forecast from the
Bureau of Meteorology, released on 11 November, indicates that for much of south-east
Queensland there is a 60% to 75% chance that rainfall will exceed the median
during the total December-February period.
The likelihood of above-median pasture growth in October
to December (during a 'neutral' SOI year) varies little from the 'all years'
average values. Providing rainfall is at least average over that period, prospects
for above-average pasture growth are high in areas where pasture condition is
good.
STATE OVERVIEW
Useful rain fell across much of the State during the month
resulting in improvement in stock and pastures and a good start to the growing
season. Many grain growers took advantage of a planting opportunity in spite
of it being significantly earlier than the traditional December/January planting
window. However, the above average rainfall affected the wheat and sugar cane
harvest in some areas. Spring conditions have been cooler than normal and this
has slowed the growth of many crops. Generally livestock are in good condition
with some supplementary feeding taking place. Two applications for Individual
Droughted Properties (IDPs) have been received in the North Region and there
has been an increase of nine IDPs approved in the West Region. Currently 110
properties in 17 shires are drought declared under IDP provisions, which is
an increase of eight properties from the October figures. These declarations
represent less than one percent of the land area of the State.
REGIONAL SUMMARIES
North Region: A wet November for the majority of the north
provided great relief for the grazing industry after a prolonged period of protein
deficit that saw stock losses. It followed improvement in the SOI over the past
couple of months and has some positive implications for increased adoption of
seasonal climate forecasting. The rain is also a useful start for the summer
peanut, maize and sorghum crops currently being planted, but disruptive to post-harvest
season activities on cane farms.
West Region: West Region has received an excellent start
to the growing season. Rainfall has been widespread and generous. River systems
throughout the region have flooded or are flowing significantly and water supplies
are full. The quality and quantity of feed has increased substantially. Areas
that received earlier rain have gone ahead and have large amounts of green summer
grasses. Those areas receiving their first falls in November have experienced
the growth of fresh green pick and this will only improve with further rains.
Generally livestock are in good condition although some are still being fed
protein supplements. Breeding cattle in those areas that missed out on earlier
rains vary in condition, but they should improve as pastures respond to recent
rainfall.
Central Region: Rainfall was above average for most areas.
The exception was the coastal area from Rockhampton to Calliope, which received
below average falls for this period. Stock and pasture condition will begin
improve in the next couple of months in most areas as a result of the rainfall
received across the region which has provided a belated start to the spring
season. Some grain sorghum and mungbean crops have been planted following recent
rainfall which in many cases is outside the traditional planting window for
these crops. Surface water supplies, both for stock and irrigation purposes,
are reasonable at the moment. Groundwater supplies are still depleted in coastal
areas around Rockhampton and will need significant recharge events to assist
replenishment. The sugar cane harvest has been completed in the Mackay district,
with very little interruption due to wet weather during the crushing season.
South-East Region: The month of November has generally been favourable for all
districts. Spring weather conditions have been mild with very few hot days.
As a result of the cooler than normal weather many inland centres have recorded
record low maximum temperatures for the month of November. The cooler weather
has been thought to slow down the growth of pasture but this has been balanced
by lower evaporation rates. While the majority of areas have good pastures,
quantity is still short in some areas with only overstocked properties being
completely bare.
South Region: Rainfall recorded within the Region ranged
from 50-150mm. The highest falls were on the eastern Downs to Goondiwindi, as
well as the St. George district. Rain delayed harvest and reduced the quality
of the wheat. Pastures and early planted summer crops will have benefited from
the widespread rain. Significant hail damage was recorded for the second month
in a row. Effects of a severe hailstorm were experienced over a very large area
- up to 7km wide and 30km long from Cecil Plans to Pittsworth, including Bongeen
and the Irongate district. Widespread crop damage occurred to early summer planted
crops (cotton, sorghum and sunflowers) and point of harvest winter crops (wheat,
barley and chickpeas).
LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES North Region: Pastures are responding
well to storm rains in the Bowen District and follow-up falls will ensure a
rapid improvement in stock condition which is generally good. Two applications
for IDPs have been received. Rainfall across the southern section of the Townsville
Stock District has resulted in a good start to the season but possibly too late
for some properties with wet cows, which have been dragged down by early season
calves. Many areas have experienced record monthly rainfall which has resulted
in the best start to the season for many years. Stock condition have been suffering
due to protein loss in pastures but this is expected to improve markedly with
the good rainfall and stock which have been supplementary fed should respond
rapidly. The area around Laura has only had token rainfall. The fire season
has now turned into an excellent grass season. Livestock are making an early
recovery from the dry in all areas. Water supply is good. Cattle prices are
the highest for many years and demand seems to be increasing.
West Region: Pastures have produced much green growth,
predominantly grasses. Many forbs have also responded to the rain and will provide
a variety of green pick for the start of summer. Standing feed is abundant and
quality is high as new growth emerges. Follow up rains will give a further boost
to pastures, especially in those areas such as patches of country between Boulia
and Mt. Isa, Birdsville/Boulia, Bedourie, between Richmond and Hughenden, and
patches north of Julia Creek that did not receive rain until mid to late November.
Livestock condition has not changed, but will improve significantly as the effect
of November's rainfall is realised. In general, feeding supplements will cease
as protein levels of pastures are now at a high. Those producers in drier areas
mentioned above, are reported to be selling stock to reduce the pressure on
pastures, however, their condition is not poor.
Central Region: There was quite a bit of useful rain across
the region during the month. Areas to miss out again were the coastal areas
of Rockhampton and around Marlborough, Bauhinia Downs, Nebo and Dysart. Stock
water is generally in good supply across the region, with only isolated areas
which may experience problems if rain is not forthcoming. On the whole, with
the exception of the areas which have missed out on the rain, it has not been
a bad start to the season. Where rain has fallen, stock condition has obviously
picked up. Supplementary feeding is still being carried out in some areas. Pasture
quality and quantity is good and improving in direct relationship to rainfall,
but pasture is of little benefit where properties have not received rain.
South-East Region: Districts such as Yarraman, Beaudesert,
Bundaberg, Gympie and Kingaroy all report stock to be in fair to very good condition.
Stock numbers moving to sale are less than normal for this time of year as with
better conditions, producers are opting to retain stock. Store and prime cattle
markets continue to be strong due to good feed supplies in many areas. There
has been a strong demand for cattle to restock many properties. No feeding is
known to be taking place in the region. Warm conditions and a good start to
Spring have ensured that the great majority of areas have very good pastures.
Pasture quantity is still short in many areas with only overstocked properties
being completely bare. All districts now report good to excellent surface water
supplies. Underground supplies have been replenished in some areas but generally
it will take considerable rainfall to fully return these reserves to former
levels.
South Region: Stock have benefited from the recent rain
and subsequent pasture growth. Grazing animals have maintained average body
condition. Cattle have maintained comparatively high prices over the last few
months which meant quite large movements to sale. As well, wool prices have
risen to the highest point for 12 months. Goat and pig prices are also strong
and the summer season looks favourable for rain and commodity prices of animal
products. Other than a few isolated places in the west of the Region there has
been little need for supplementary feeding. All areas have adequate supplies
of stock water except for Mitchell. The rain over the month has stimulated the
growth of summer pasture species in most parts of the Region. However the abnormally
cool November has reduced the growing potential of pastures.
CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE
North Region: It is possible that low prices for produce
that dominated the season will reduce the inputs to the fallow season. The mango
harvest is in full swing with a large crop expected despite some variable production.
There was above average rain in the wet tropics where the banana and paw paw
industries are still feeling the effect of the cyclone and flooding from the
start of the year. Some tropical tree fruits seem to have benefited from periods
of dry and cool weather during winter, with improved flowering in lychee, longan
and rambutan. Planting of the peanut and maize crops started on the Atherton
Tablelands amid above average rain and lower than normal temperatures in November.
A very wet and cloudy November has played havoc with farm activities in most
cane growing districts, though in most cases harvesting has been completed.
Central Region: There has been hail damage on young cotton
crops at Theodore and a number of late wheat crops suffered weather damage.
The wheat harvest has been less than ideal for most people, with low yields
and protein levels (due to the dry season) and then rain damage at harvest,
causing further downgrading. Fortunately, a significant proportion of the crop
had been harvested before the heaviest rain fell. Rainfall in the Dawson and
Callide valleys has renewed optimism amongst growers and those with a full profile
of moisture have planted part of their available area to sorghum and/or mungbeans
because of the planting opportunity. Further rainfall in December will mean
a widespread summer crop planting, particularly if there are significant falls
during the month. Small areas of sorghum have been planted in the Central Highlands.
While most growers are waiting for good rains on country that grew either a
summer crop or a low yielding winter crop, there are concerns that bare country
is susceptible to erosion should heavy storm rain fall. Despite the cloudy weather,
a lot of districts have not got the rain they would have liked and significant
falls are required during December, January and February to allow the summer
plant to be maximised.
South-East Region: In the Burnett winter crops of chickpeas
have done well despite some pressure from heliothis. Wheat crops have yielded
well, but as in other areas there have been problems with low protein. A complicating
factor is the presence of the white grain disorder in the Burnett. It is thought
that 10-20 properties may have grain that is affected. Many summer crops and
the great majority of the peanut crop have already been planted. Plantings of
sorghum and maize are likely to be reduced this year due to lower prices. Many
growers are thinking of taking the option of growing soybeans, mungbeans or
navy beans because of the better price but these crops need more intensive and
careful management. Most districts are looking to an average to better crop
yield of cane. Harvesting of rockmelons, watermelons and grapes has started
in the Bundaberg district with tomatoes, capsicums, button squash and zucchinis
being planted. Conditions have been mild and favourable in the Gatton district
for small crop production. There have been large plantings of pumpkins in response
to the good prices received last year. Stone fruit have almost finished harvesting
in the Nambour district and most orchards in the Kumbia district have now finished
picking peaches, plums, nectarines and apricots with crop yields being good
and prices favourable for some lines.
South Region: Rain restricted harvest. The moisture reduced
the quality of the grain and there was sprouting reported in the eastern Downs
crops. Reasonable yields were recorded although protein levels were lower than
expected. Sub soil moisture for the summer crop is fine on 12 month fallow ground.
Crop damage occurred to early summer planted crops (cotton, sorghum and sunflowers),
and point of harvest winter crops (wheat, barley and chickpeas) during a severe
hail storm which covered an area from Pittsworth to Cecil Plains on 16 November,
1999. Planting options for alternate crops are limited due to herbicides applied
to the damaged cotton crops. The hail in October damaged fruit and vegetables
in the Granite Belt. Vegetables have been replanted but will be 3-4 weeks late
arriving on the market. Fruit trees have been heavily pruned or bulldozed. Protective
netting worked well to prevent greater damage. The cool, cloudy November weather
prevented the drying of sprayed fruit and blemishes have occurred. Stonefuits
will be ready to harvest in a couple of weeks.
RAINFALL
North Region: Atherton received 162mm, Babinda 553mm,
Cairns 226mm, Herberton 140mm, Malanda 128mm, Ingham 784mm, Innisfail 463mm,
Townsville 154mm, Tully 591mm, Bowen 85mm, Charters Towers 256mm and Georgetown
120mm.
West Region: Birdsville recorded 8mm, Boulia 49mm, Windorah
116mm, Cloncurry 96mm, Mt Isa 185mm, Longreach 119mm, Muttaburra 160mm, Winton
165mm, Eromanga 146mm, Augathella 100mm and Charleville 45mm.
Central Region: Alpha recorded 108mm, Clermont 107mm,
Springsure 79mm, Mackay 128mm, Rockhampton 12mm, Proserpine 214mm, Biloela 99mm,
Calliope 80mm, Gladstone 123mm, Miriam Vale n/a and Theodore 112mm.
South-East Region: Eidsvold recorded 81mm, Gayndah 105mm,
Mundubbera 98mm, Esk 100mm, Kilkivan 65mm, Kingaroy 87mm, Murgon 83mm, Nanango
85mm, Proston 93mm, and Beaudesert 51mm. On the coastal fringe Bundaberg received
102mm, Maryborough 45mm, Nambour 64mm and Tewantin 37mm.
South Region: During November Clifton recorded 78mm, Dalby
101mm, Goondiwindi 133mm, Inglewood 94mm, Oakey 72mm, Pittsworth 122mm, Stanthorpe
79mm, Toowoomba 70mm, Warwick 112mm, Roma 75mm, St George 109mm and Taroom 82mm.
WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES
North Region: Rainfall generally ranged from above average
to near record totals for November. The notable exception is in the west of
Croydon Shire. South Johnstone has exceeded 5000mm so far this year. The last
time this occurred was in 1950. Stock water supplies are adequate in most areas
and the major storages are at or close to capacity.
West Region: Rainfalls for various locations in this Region
during November are well above the median (and the average). In general, water
storages are near capacity. Rain has fallen in a relatively short period to
fill dams and waterholes and caused creeks to run. Major river systems, such
as the Cooper, Diamantina, Thomson and Bulloo have flooded and produced a flush
of green growth in channels. November rains also filled the Aramac Lakes after
receiving only small, spasmodic falls earlier in the year.
Central Region: Well above average rainfall across the
bulk of the Central West Region has provided little benefit to water storages
but was of benefit to pastures and stock water. Minor to moderate streamflows
resulted in parts of the Callide, with minor freshes in the lower Dawson and
Fitzroy Rivers. The Pioneer River maintained above average flow. Elsewhere in
the Central West Region streamflows are declining or zero. Water storages in
the region are declining but supplying good volumes of water for the current
irrigation season. Groundwater levels have been static or falling. The Capricorn
Coast is particularly dry as well as an area west of Baralaba.
South-East Region: Rainfall along the coastal fringe has
been far greater than inland areas, but in spite of this many centres across
the region received average rainfall. Many creeks and watercourses have continued
to run across the region particularly in coastal areas. Farm dams in most districts
are full to two thirds full. The Lockyer Valley continues to have low water
storages with Bill Gunn Dam and Lake Clarendon at low levels.
South Region: The highest rainfalls were on the Eastern
Downs to Goondiwindi, as well as the St George district. The rain influences
caused runoff in the Upper Condamine and tributaries. There was flow recorded
in the Moonie and Weir River. Runoff volumes for the month reflected the nature
of the rainfall with above average flows in the Macintyre and Upper Condamine
Rivers. There has been an increased demand for irrigation supplies. However,
water levels in alluvial and sandstone aquifers remain stable or just starting
to fall. Most major water storages are in a good position.
Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY
Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454
National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)
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The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries. |
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