DROUGHT SITUATION REPORT
OCTOBER 1999
OUTLOOK
The average SOI over the last 30 days was +10.4 . Based
on the SOI, the probabilities of exceeding median rainfall during the November
to January period are quite variable, but remain around 50% in much of the eastern
States. In Queensland, the exceptions are parts of the central-west where probabilities
are 60-80% and near the Queensland/New South Wales border where they are 10-40%.
Sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean indicate
a very weak La Nina pattern. Most experimental models are now suggesting that
neutral conditions will predominate by about April. Temperatures are now mainly
normal in waters off Queensland and the Northern Territory. The likelihood of
above-median pasture growth in October to December (during a 'neutral' SOI year)
varies little from the 'all years' average values. Providing rainfall is at
least average over that period, prospects for above-average pasture growth are
high in areas where pasture condition is good (i.e. high perennial grass basal
cover).
The next passage of the 30- to 50-Day Oscillation is expected
in the fourth week of November. For the past few months it has been a very weak
phenomenon, only identifiable after it has passed.
STATE OVERVIEW
Normal dry seasonal decline in pasture quality continued
across much of the State during the month, although there were isolated showers
and storms with some areas in south-eastern Queensland receiving good falls
of rain. A severe hail storm caused significant damage in horticultural areas
of the Granite Belt. Supplementary feeding was necessary in most areas of the
state, although there was sufficient carry over pasture to maintain stock in
most areas in the South Region. The exception is the Mitchell region where surface
water and pasture nutrition are causing concern. Overall, most areas of the
State are looking for rainfall in the immediate future to generate pasture growth.
Increasing numbers of producers are applying for Individual Droughted Property
(IDP) declarations as dry conditions continue and feed quality declines. Currently
102 properties in 16 shires are drought declared under IDP provisions which
is an increase of 18 properties from the September figures.
REGIONAL SUMMARIES
North Region: Continued dry and warmer conditions maintained
the protein decline in extensively grazed pastures. Supplementary feeding increased
significantly, and with it interest in enquiring about drought declarations.
Bushfires abound. Relief in the way of storms has been isolated. The dry conditions
have contributed to cane harvesting being ahead of schedule, and in the dry
tropics, massive production from irrigated horticulture.
West Region: Producers are experiencing conditions that
are quite normal for this time of year and are suffering from protein droughts
as a result of a long dry winter. Standing pastures have hayed off, and their
nutritional quality is low. Protein supplements are being fed to maintain the
condition of breeding stock however, dry stock are maintaining their condition
without assistance. Light rain has fallen across the region and this has produced
some fresh green growth in pastures but response is varied due to timing of
the rain, high temperatures and land types. Livestock and water availability
conditions have not changed. A small number of IDP applications have been received.
Central Region: There was isolated rainfall in the region
with the driest areas being the coastal areas north of Rockhampton and the Bauhinia
Downs area. Supplementary feeding has increased, particularly the central coastal
areas. Inland areas, which suffered from severe frosts over winter, are also
feeding heavily, with cows and calves under most pressure. Harvesting of the
small winter crop is nearing completion with reports of poor protein levels
in the wheat crop yet to be explained. There are large areas in the Central
Highlands which need relatively small falls to allow the planting of summer
crops. Crushing is complete in all mills in the region except for Plane Creek,
which is expected to finish in the four weeks. South-East Region: The month
of October has been favourable for all inland districts. Some coastal areas
have continued to suffer from wet conditions. The Bundaberg area received significant
rainfall which has affected harvesting of cane and caused some damage and losses
in small crops. Generally spring weather conditions have been mild with few
hot days. Further rainfall in inland areas to finish winter crops would have
been helpful but despite this, yields should be average. No shires in the region
are currently drought declared. The great majority of IDPs are in the Monto
and Eidsvold Shires but these areas have received useful rainfall during the
month.
South Region: Rainfall recorded within the Region was
between 100-150mm on the eastern extremities of the Downs and falls of 50 -100mm
within the Maranoa and Western Downs. A large proportion of wheat crop in the
western areas has been harvested. Significant hail damage was recorded in the
horticultural areas of the Granite Belt. There is sufficient carry over pasture
available to maintain stock condition in most areas. The far west of the region
around Mitchell is the exception where surface water and pasture nutrition are
causing concern. There has been a further IDP granted in the Booringa Shire.
The pasture condition and water supplies have deteriorated over recent months.
LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES North Region: There have been some
isolated storms in the region but little or no rain of consequence. Pasture
supplies are still present in quantity but with dry weather conditions, quality
is low. Supplementary feeding has commenced in most areas. Livestock condition
in all areas, with the exception of the Tablelands where they are in good condition,
is fair to good in dry stock, but losses are being reported in wet cows. Fires
have cleared large areas of country which will require rain to assist new pasture
growth. All abattoirs are still actively operating and as supplies of suitable
cattle are getting short, prices are increasing. Live export stock is moving
mainly to the Philippines and other Asian destinations.
West Region: Breeding stock, both cattle and sheep, have
maintained their condition with the help of protein supplements. Dry stock have
managed to maintain fair to good condition. Livestock through Longreach saleyards
are in surprisingly good condition for this time of year. In general there is
sufficient quantity of native pastures across the region. Quality of the standing
feed is low but should improve as pastures respond to rainfall. In the north
west pastures are only providing roughage to livestock and supplements are being
fed. Rainfall around Camooweal has stimulated some green growth in spinifex
pastures and rain in the central west has produced green pick in Buffel and
Mitchell grass pastures. Boulia district is experiencing deteriorating but not
extraordinary conditions for this time of year. The south west has received
some beneficial rain which has triggered pasture growth around Cunnamulla and
Quilpie, however, pasture growth in the Charleville district has not picked
up significantly yet.
Central Region: Areas in most shires in the region have
received some useful rainfall during the month but a lot of the region received
no rain and these areas are desperate for rain to ease the current dry spell.
On the whole stock water availability does not appear to be an immediate problem,
except north of Jericho where there are isolated cases of dry dams. Breeders
seem to be suffering the most and cows with young calves are worse affected,
with supplementary feeding being carried out. Pasture condition has continued
to deteriorate in areas that have not received rainfall. Heavy frosts in the
Bauhinia Downs area during winter contributed to the decline in pasture condition
in that area. In areas where storms have occurred, pastures are responding well.
Seasonal burning has begun.
South-East Region Districts such as Yarraman, Boonah,
Bundaberg, Gympie, Beaudesert, Murgon and Moreton all report stock to be in
fair to good condition which is expected for this time of year. Some breeders
on forest country are in lighter condition but this is common coming out of
winter. Mild spring temperatures have helped stock maintain better condition
than is normal. In most districts grasses have a good green shoot. There is
still a good growth of clovers, winter herbages and green pick. Burnt areas
of country now carry an abundance of fresh grass growth. In all districts there
are adequate pasture supplies for the immediate future. Coastal sown pastures
have in most cases responded well to the rainfall and warmer weather. All districts
now report good to excellent surface water supplies.
South Region: Most lines of livestock have benefited from
the carry over of pasture from the previous summer. Additionally, grazing animals
have maintained average body condition from recent rainfalls and resultant improved
pasture production. The Mitchell district is a notable exception and conditions
continue to deteriorate in this area. Cattle prices have maintained comparatively
high prices over the last few months. The good prices meant quite large movements
to sale. Wool prices are not as inspiring, other than for fine wool classes.
There has been supplementary feeding of urea and molasses in the far west of
the Region. A number of enquiries regarding protein supplementation have been
made with the local Stock Inspector at Mitchell. All areas have adequate supplies
of stock water except for Mitchell. The rain over the month and warm weather
have stimulated the growth of summer pasture species in most parts of the Region.
CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE
North Region: Warm dry conditions in the Burdekin/Bowen
district have favoured heavy production from irrigated horticulture (melons,
sweet corn, tomatoes, capsicums) and oversupply has resulted in low financial
returns. Some farms have finished early rather than add to the supply while
the rest are starting to wind down. Prospects for a large mango crop continue
to be strong with some very early fruit near to maturity. In the wet tropics,
a cool dry winter appears to have led to a reasonable flowering in the tropical
exotic crops like rambutan and mangosteen. This is still to translate to good
fruit set and harvest. The dry conditions have meant a need to irrigate horticulture
crops for the first time in 18 months. Bananas and papaya are growing well but
production is still well down from the effects of earlier flooding and cyclone
damage. Normal to fairly dry conditions prevailed on the Atherton Tablelands,
where harvesting of the potato crop continued and land preparations escalated
for the coming peanut and maize crops. The sugar cane harvest season has seen
favourable climatic conditions. Tully and Mossman mills have already finished
and others are reported to be nearing the end.
Central Region: The wheat harvest started in the Dawson/Callide
Valley with only a small proportion of crops making prime hard classification.
A number of crops have suffered weather damage and are likely to be downgraded
significantly with a reasonable chance of some sprouting damage in parts of
the Callide that received more than 75mm of rain in the last two weeks of the
month. This rainfall will provide an opportunity to plan some paddocks that
missed out on a winter crop and the success of these crops will depend on follow
up rain in December and January and a full moisture profile at planting. The
dry winter led to lower winter crop areas planted with wheat and chickpeas in
the Central Highlands. Paddocks which either grew a summer crop or a wheat/chickpea
crop are very dry and would need 200-300mm of rain to bring them back to a full
profile for planting. There are large areas of country which need relatively
small falls of rain to allow planting.
South-East Region: In the Burnett harvesting of early
winter crops has started. Wheat crops have average to better yield potential
although there is some yellow spot and fusarium in heads. The barley planted
in the district this season has been affected with some net blotch and spot
blotch but this should not affect yields. Conditions in the Bundaberg area have
been drier than other districts but heavy rain late in October caused some disruption
to harvesting of cane. In the Isis, Maryborough, Rocky Point and Moreton areas
crushing has continued to be delayed by wet weather. Most areas however are
looking to an average or better crop yield if weather conditions allow. In the
Bundaberg district storms caused damage and erosion on many farms. Harvesting
of rockmelons has started with watermelons and pumpkins to follow. Tomatoes,
capsicums, button squash and zucchinis are now planted. Potato crops are now
being dug and onions harvested in the Gatton district with lettuce, broccoli,
cabbages and cauliflowers being harvested. In the Nambour district stonefruit
are being harvested, mango flowering has occurred earlier than normal and macadamias
are starting to flower and fruit set is taking place.
South Region: The harvest of wheat crops began early October
in the western areas. Although yields appear to be satisfactory, protein levels
in the main have been disappointing. The rain that has fallen in the latter
part of the month will assist yield production in the eastern Downs. Double
cropping will certainly be an option if further rain improves the subsoil moisture
levels. Sub soil moisture for the summer crop is fine on 12 month fallow ground.
There is a move to plant larger areas of sorghum with a reduced dryland cotton
crop, due to reduction in cotton prices. Sunflower plantings are expected to
be reduced because of lower prices and rotational needs. DNR has advised farmers
to monitor their crops for any mice damage in the ensuing months. Stonefruit
and vegetable crops in the Granite Belt were damaged by a severe hail storm
late in the month.
RAINFALL
North Region: Atherton received 25mm, Babinda 117mm, Cairns
39mm, Herberton 28mm, Malanda 24mm, Ingham 16mm, Innisfail 43mm, Townsville
2mm, Tully 148mm, Bowen 1mm, Charters Towers 1mm and Georgetown 9mm.
West Region: Birdsville recorded 14mm, Boulia 20mm, Windorah
11mm, Cloncurry 9mm, Mt Isa 18mm, Longreach 45mm, Muttaburra 19mm, Winton 20mm,
Eromanga 21mm, Augathella 89mm and Charleville 68mm.
Central Region: Alpha recorded 78mm, Clermont 18mm, Springsure
74mm, Mackay 1mm, Rockhampton n/a, Proserpine 12mm, Biloela 63mm, Calliope 51mm,
Gladstone 110mm, Miriam Vale n/a and Theodore 71mm.
South-East Region: Eidsvold recorded 49mm, Gayndah 138mm,
Mundubbera 68mm, Esk 86mm, Kilkivan 89mm, Kingaroy 50mm, Murgon 90mm, Nanango
75mm, Proston 80mm, and Beaudesert 132mm. On the coastal fringe Bundaberg received
247mm, Maryborough 77mm, Nambour 125mm and Tewantin 175mm.
South Region: During October Clifton recorded 63mm, Dalby
40mm, Goondiwindi 62mm, Inglewood 95mm, Oakey 62mm, Pittsworth 67mm, Stanthorpe
167mm, Toowoomba 80mm, Warwick 184mm, Roma 62mm, St George 37mm and Taroom 34mm.
WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES
DNorth Region: Rainfall during October was average or
below average over most of the north. A noticeable exception was parts of the
lower gulf where falls from 10mm to over 50mm made for an above average month.
Rainfall in areas around Bowen and Cooktown was very much below average. Tinaroo
Dam was 89.3% at 1/11/1999 and the drawdown from last month is largely due to
releases for hydro generation.
West Region: Rainfall for a sample of recording sites
has exceeded the median (not the mean) for October in most examples. Waters
for livestock are generally sufficient across the region until further rains.
Central Region: Below average rainfall meant that the
decline in volume continued in dams and streams in most areas. Groundwater supplies
continue to decline to very low levels. As the irrigation season continues,
the Emerald area is assured of good supplies but the Dawson area near Theodore
will need some streamflows and streams around Mackay under irrigation pressure
would benefit from spring rain.
South-East Region: Rainfall along the coastal fringe has
been far greater than inland areas, but in spite of this many centres across
the region received average rainfall. Many creeks and watercourses have continued
to run across the region particularly in coastal areas. Farm dams in most districts
are full to two thirds full.
South Region: Rainfall recorded within the Region was
between 100-150mm on the eastern extremities of the Downs and falls of 50-100mm
within the Maranoa and Western Downs. The isolated shower and storm falls had
no impact on flows in any of the river systems. The Condamine River and Balonne
River above Beardmore Dam remained at base flow status whilst releases were
made downstream of St. George for commencement of the cotton season. Runoff
volumes for the month were well below average apart from Warwick which had slightly
better than average flows. The drier conditions led to an increased demand for
irrigation supplies. However water levels in alluvial and sandstone aquifers
remains stable. Some recharge was recorded in the fractured vesicular volcanic
rock systems.
Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY
Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454
National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)
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The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries. |
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