DROUGHT SITUATION REPORT
SEPTEMBER 1999
STATE OVERVIEW
Normal dry seasonal decline in pasture quality continued across much of the
State during the month although some areas in southern and south-eastern Queensland
received good falls of rain during latter stages of the month. Lack of rainfall
in the far-west and Channel Country is impacting on the pasture reserves and
stock condition. Overall most areas of the State are looking for rainfall in
the immediate future to generate pasture growth and provide sub-soil moisture
supplies for summer crop planting's. Increasing numbers of producers are looking
for Individual Droughted Property IDP) declarations as dry conditions continue
and feed quality declines. Currently, 84 properties in 14 shires remain drought
declared under Individual Droughted Property (IDP) provisions. These declarations
represent less than one per cent of the land area of the State.
REGIONAL SUMMARIES
North Region: The start of spring saw temperatures rise and some isolated storm
activity but this was generally insufficient to have any bearing on grass growth
in grazing lands. It has the potential to help dairying on the Atherton tablelands
if warm conditions and follow up rain occur. For the beef industry, it is mostly
a story of abundant but poor quality feed. While a protein decline is seasonal,
it is more acute this year in many areas with breeder and calf losses reported.
West Region: Seasonal conditions have generally remained
unchanged across the region. Rainfall has been minimal and pastures are low
in nutritive value with supplements being fed to sustain stock on low valued
pastures. There has been a number of enquires and applications for IDP's. The
majority of inspections have assessed them as protein drought conditions rather
than severe deficiency of seasonal rainfall. However, the far southwest area
near Thargomindah area is reported to be deteriorating under the hot conditions.
Central Region: Although no real rainfall fell in the
region for the month of September, there have been isolated showers and storms.
Stock condition on the whole is fair to good for most areas with cattle obviously
starting to slip in condition at this time of the year. Most districts report
that there are various forms of supplementary feeding going on, particularly
for cows with calves. There are a few applications for IDPs starting to come
in.
South-East Region: The month of September has been favourable
for all inland districts. Some coastal areas have continued to suffer from wet
conditions but in the Bundaberg area it has remained relatively dry. Generally
winter weather conditions have been milder than normal with no late frosts.
Inland areas have received enough rainfall to ensure good prospects for winter
crop yields and pastures. No shires in the region are currently drought declared
South Region: Rainfall recorded within the Region was
between 15-50mm. The winter crop has had sufficient rain for at least average
yields, in most areas. Crops in the eastern parts benefited from rain late in
the month. There is sufficient carry over pasture available to maintain stock
condition. Drought feeding has not been necessary for the region. Some routine
supplementary feeding such as urea and molasses has taken place to take advantage
of the dry feed.
Enquiries to: Steve Bullock. Our Ref: SB\Aug-99^rp.doc
Your Ref: RISK MANAGEMENT Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box
46, Brisbane Q 4001 AND DROUGHT Telephone: (07) 3239 3182 Facsimile: (07) 3239
3454 ABG/340/000(105)
LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES
North Region: Across the majority of the north region,
pastures are deteriorating in quality and quantity and breeders are experiencing
problems. The region is experiencing a typical northern Dry Season throughout
and would expect that the worst is past and eagerly await the "wet". Slaughter
cattle prices are good and with stock in short supply this will continue to
enable good prices. Abattoirs are killing at capacity although they may be forced
to cut down operations as supplies of suitable stock are reduced and the impact
of live export takes effect.
West Region: In the Mt. Isa, Cloncurry, Julia Creek, Richmond,
and Hughenden Stock Districts, dry stock are holding their condition, but wet
breeders require extra supplementation. This is considered a normal seasonal
occurrence. Producers in the Thargomindah area are reporting that rainfall data
has recorded the 2nd driest 12 month period since 1980-81. As a result, the
country is deteriorating rapidly. Mulga and other supplements are being fed
to sustain stock. The remainder of the SouthWest is in a normal seasonal decline,
requiring the supply of protein supplements to sustain stock on this low quality
feed.
Central Region: Cattle on most properties are in good
condition considering the time of year. Some cattle are starting to slip away
on the native pastures, but are holding on most of the improved country. Overall
there is still a quantity of dry feed, although in some areas feed is starting
to become scarce. With the quality of the feed becoming low in most areas, licks
being fed as per normal. Around the Jericho region pasture is generally in good
condition body wise, although in other pockets of the region prolonged dry weather
is affecting pasture condition. Grass is extremely dry around Biloela and fire
could be a major hazard to a lot of producers.
South-East Region: Districts such as Yarraman, Boonah,
Bundaberg, Gympie, Murgon, Beaudesert and Moreton all report stock to be in
fair to good condition which is expected for this time of year. Some breeders
on forest country are in lighter condition but this common in winter. Milder
winter temperatures have helped stock maintain better condition than is normal.
In most districts grasses have hayed off and have minimal nutrition. There is
a good growth of clovers, winter herbages and green pick. Producers have burnt
large areas of country and there is now an abundance of fresh grass growth.
In all districts there are adequate pastures supplies for the immediate future.
South Region: The rainfall and subsequent pasture production,
throughout the previous month ensured continued livestock production. Grazing
animals have maintained average body condition. Animal condition will decline
from this time as carry over pasture declines and winter herbages are phased
out. Cattle prices have been maintained throughout winter and spring. The good
prices meant quite large movements to sale. There was reasonable pasture growth,
prior to winter and the reserve has steadily decreased to this point as expected.
Winter herbages have ceased to grow in the warmer months. The carry over of
summer pasture has deteriorated with the nutrition steadily declining over the
winter period.
CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE
North Region: Warm dry conditions in the Bowen-Burdekin
district favoured heavy production of all commodities. There has been recent
planting of tomatoes and capsicums, setting up a late finish to the season.
There is a bumper mango crop that requires a continuation of favourable conditions
through to harvest. On current progress the finish of crushing is scheduled
for early in November, with standover representing less than 5% of the 1 million
tonnes remaining for harvest. Preparations for next year, such as laser levelling
and drain construction continue.
Central Region: The main spring planting window has passed
with the only crops planted being in the irrigation areas. No useful rain was
recorded throughout the month, with many paddocks now likely to be fallowed
through until early summer for a planting opportunity. Those wheat crops planted
in July have not fared as well as expected, with some failed crops being fed
off from late August onwards. In many cases, secondary roots could not develop
quickly enough. Those crops able to put secondary roots into the subsoil moisture
have survived to set grain although many will be below average crops.
South-East Region: In the Burnett, winter crops of wheat
and chickpeas are doing well. No late frosts have occurred as in previous years.
Conditions have dried off however and most crops need some further rainfall.
Current estimates indicate that crushing will continue until December despite
the crush being 2/3rds completed at present. The crop in the Isis area is projected
to reach a record of 1.35 million tonnes depending on weather conditions. Avocadoes
and macadamias have finished the harvesting season, flowering is now occurring.
Mangoes have had multiple flowering due to the milder winter conditions and
this may mean that trees will have fruit at various stages of growth in the
coming season.
South Region: Wheat crops east of the Goondiwindi district
are good. Harvest should start mid October. The later planted wheat to the west
is holding on (due to sub-soil moisture) but really needs rain. The chickpeas
are good however ascochyta has been identified. The majority of chickpeas have
been treated with at least 1 dethrone spray. The drier conditions have forced
the crop roots (below 60cm), to access moisture and available nitrate. This
has the potential to improve protein levels. Mung Bean crops are expected to
be a major summer crop in the west. This crop is suitable for farmers not wanting
to spend money on nitrogen application. The season in the eastern Downs has
been average. Rain is required to ensure a good yield. The crucial flowering
period for stone fruits has begun. Warm weather this month has the fruit flowering
at different times.
RAINFALL
North Region: Atherton received 40mm, Babinda 225mm, Innisfail
105mm, Tully 91mm, Cairns 89mm, Townsville 0mm, Bowen 5.2mm, Charters Towers
9.4mm, Herberton 21mm, Malanda 73mm, Ingham 10.2mm and Georgetown 0mm.
West Region: Birdsville recorded 2mm, Boulia 0mm, Windorah
8mm, Eromanga n/a, Augathella 7mm, Charleville 17mm, Longreach 3mm, Muttaburra
n/a, Winton 0mm, Cloncurry 0mm and Mt Isa 0mm.
Central Region: Rainfall has been patchy with areas to
the west of the shire picking up better falls than those closer to Calliope
itself. Falls in the Boyne Valley region have also been patchy and of no real
benefit. Springsure recorded 3mm, Alpha n/a, Clermont 0.2mm, Mackay 32mm, Proserpine
63mm, Rockhampton 6mm, Biloela 4mm, Theodore 0.5mm, Calliope 5mm, Miriam Vale
N/A and Gladstone 32mm.
South-East Region: Heavier rain fell in the eastern part
of the Region with falls of between 25 -50 in the south-eastern portion and
10-25mm elsewhere. Eidsvold recorded 11mm, Gayndah 27mm, Mundubbera 26mm, Esk
42mm, Kingaroy 44mm, Kilkivan 35mm, Murgon 21mm, Proston 29mm, Nanango 49mm,
and Beaudesert 27mm. On the coastal fringe Bundaberg received 15mm, Nambour
78mm, Tewantin 49mm and Maryborough 35mm.
South Region: The dry winter weather pattern continued
throughout August and September with the Condamine and Balonne system receding
to low or no flow by the end of the month. The Macintyre River continued to
hold up fairly well. Dalby recorded 8mm, Oakey 4mm, Toowoomba 34mm, Inglewood
12mm, Pittsworth 25mm, Clifton 23mm, Warwick 31mm, Stanthorpe 42mm, Roma 9mm,
Goondiwindi 47mm and St George 14mm.
WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES
The latest Water Storage Report issued by the Department
of Natural Resources is attached.
North Region: There was little abnormal activity during
September, with the exception of some storms in the north taking in Dunbar and
the Atherton Tablelands. Caution is needed when comparing falls at this time
of the year to long term averages. This is the driest part of the year, when
very small totals or deficits produce results outside the average. Burdekin
Falls Dam has storage of 85.9% with Tinaroo Dam at 94.9%. Tinaroo Dam drawdown
from last month is largely due to releases for hydro generation.
West: Although dry conditions continue to prevail in most
areas of the region stock water supplies in most areas appear adequate for the
immediate future. There are no reports of underground water shortages and main
regulated supplies appear adequate till the end of the year.
Central Region: Very little useful rainfall meant that
the decline in volume continued in dams and streams in most areas of the region.
Nevertheless there are no known concerns regarding surface water supplies in
most areas. Generally most areas have sufficient water stock although some producers
in the Rockhampton and Lawgi areas continue to experience underground water
shortages.
South-East Region: Rainfall along the coastal fringe has
been far greater than inland areas, but in spite of this many centres across
the region received average rainfall. Many creeks and watercourses have continued
to run across the region particularly in coastal areas. Farm dams in most districts
are full to 2/3rds full
South Region: The Weir River remained in low recessional
flow whilst the Moonie River had ceased flowing. There was no runoff in the
western catchments of Maranoa and has remained in recessional mode. The drier
conditions have lead to an increased demand for irrigation supplies. Water levels
in alluvial and sandstone aquifers remain stable. Most major storages are in
a good position.
OUTLOOK
The average SOI over the last 30 days has fallen to -0.1.
Based on the latest values and trends of the SOI, the probabilities of exceeding
median rainfall during the total October to December period are mainly around
50% in the eastern States of Australia. Colder than normal equatorial sea-surface
temperatures are now present from around the International Dateline to the Central
Pacific Ocean, and in most of the eastern Pacific. However, temperatures are
slightly cooler than normal of the northeast coast of Australia.
Sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean indicate
the remains of a weak La Nina pattern, but some experimental models suggest
re-strengthening of the pattern towards the end of the year. Potential yields
of late-planted crops in winter cropping areas of central and southern Queensland
are slightly below average. Due to the SOI being in a consistently-near-zero
phase, the likelihood of above median pasture growth in September to November
is high only in parts of south-eastern Queensland where good soil moisture is
present following three months of above-average rainfall.
The next passage of the 30-50 day oscillation is expected
about the third week of October.
The attached "Summary of Seasonal Conditions" report shows
the total rainfall over Queensland during August, together with maps of rainfall
relative to historical records for the last three months and the last twelve
months.
Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY
Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454
National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)
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The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries. |
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