DROUGHT SITUATION REPORT
APRIL 2000
OUTLOOK
The average Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) over the
last 30 days was +12.9. Based on the SOI, the probabilities of exceeding median
rainfall during the total May to July period are little different from the "normal"
for this time of year in most of the eastern states of Australia, except for
parts of southern NSW, western Victoria and eastern Tasmania where the probabilities
are 60-70%.
The persistent "cool" sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies
are slowly contracting in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean,
indicating that the La Nina pattern may be receding. This is also hinted at
by other features associated with the la Nina, such as weakening of the strong
easterly winds in the central Pacific.
Forecasts from most experimental general circulation models
are currently suggesting that by mid-year the La Nina event will be over and
neutral conditions dominate. Sub-surface sea temperatures to the east of Australia
are now significantly warmer than normal, in classic "pre El Nino" mode. In
addition, some early research work suggests the sub-tropical ridge may again
be further north than normal this winter which may tend to reduce winter rainfall
from the Goondiwindi district through to the Central Highlands.
Combining the rainfall outlook with current soil water
and pasture condition, the probabilities of above-median pasture growth during
the total May to July period are 60-100% in much of Queensland, 0-40% in much
of far North Queensland (maximum pasture growth has already been achieved) and
0-40% in eastern areas of southern Queensland due to current poor soil moisture.
STATE OVERVIEW
Many areas of the state received above average rainfall
during the month and pastures and stock in these areas are in good to excellent
condition. Although some areas reported close to average rainfall, it was generally
not effective as it consisted of light falls spread over a period of time, resulting
in some water and pasture concerns. There has been a lack of run-off rain in
these areas. Currently 97 properties in 14 shires are drought declared under
Individual Droughted Property (IDP) provisions, which is a decrease of 4 from
the March figures. Current IDPs within the West Region will be reviewed over
the forthcoming weeks as pastures dry out allowing access to properties.
REGIONAL SUMMARIES
North Region: Wetter than normal conditions returned to
the north during April. It was a busy month weather-wise which resulted in Cyclone
Tessi crossing the coast just north of Townsville and a week of strong on-shore
winds and rain.
West Region: West Region has received well above average
rainfall during April. This will further stimulate pasture grasses going into
winter and provide adequate soil moisture for winter herbage. Livestock are
in excellent condition. The drier districts, Blackall and Birdsville, received
good rains but small areas within the Blackall, Tambo and Charleville districts
have missed out on rainfall to fill dams and run watercourses.
Central Region: General rainfall fell over most of Central
Queensland towards the end of April with highest falls being recorded in the
Mackay area and in the northern half of the region. This provided considerable
relief to the driest areas but the intensity was generally low so it has not
boosted farm water storages to any great extent. Stock and pasture condition
are reasonable throughout most of the region. Water supplies are a concern in
the drier areas in Broadsound Shire and central coastal areas. The sugar cane
crop in the Mackay area has suffered due to very wet conditions.
South-East Region: The month produced varied climatic
conditions in many centres. Most near coastal areas have continued to receive
near average rainfall but centres such as Bundaberg continue to be drier than
average as are many areas in the North Burnett. Centres in the South Burnett
have received average or near average rainfall but little has been effective
with light falls scattered out over the whole month. Boonah and Beaudesert areas
have had far less than average rainfall for the month. The conditions have led
to a less than favourable outlook for the coming months in inland areas. Temperatures
have remained average in all areas for the month.
South Region: Rainfall recorded within the region was
limited to 25mm. There are isolated areas that have received low recordings
over the last few months and are experiencing water and pasture concerns. In
general, summer crops have achieved at least satisfactory yields. The summer
native pasture growth is drawing to an end. Some district reports indicate that
as winter approaches there will be shortages of feed and water if stocking numbers
are not adjusted.
LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES
North Region: Generally, stock, pastures and water supplies
are in good condition and store cattle are in huge demand. Live export shipments
out of Mourilyan have ceased due to the shortage of suitable cattle left in
the area. The entire Tableland area has an abundance of green feed and pastures
in the west have matured and are drying off. Most dairy farmers took advantage
of the breaks in the drizzly weather to plant rye grass in their topped pastures
and extremely good strikes are reported.
West Region: Livestock are in excellent condition due
to the abundance of feed. Rainfall has interrupted husbandry practises including
mustering and shearing and has delayed the marketing of stock unable to access
saleyards. Annual pastures grasses responded markedly to heavy rains earlier
in the year. However, they are beginning to be less significant as the perennials
are responding to the extended rainfall. A number of property owners in the
Blackall district are reducing stocking rates going into winter, whilst in the
Channel Country, stock are being bought to take advantage of available feed.
Central Region: Stock are reported to be in fair to extremely
good condition. The dry area of Nebo Shire and the inland part of Broadsound
have received some relief rain but there has been no run-off. Pasture conditions
vary from very short and dry through to magnificent, with the bulk being in
good shape to enter winter. The rain has freshened up the grass and will contribute
to herbage growth.
South-East Region: All areas report that stock are at
present generally in good condition with breeders on forest country now beginning
to lose condition due to the dry weather. Weaning of calves will improve this
situation. Stock numbers moving to sale are average for this time of year. There
is still strong demand for store cattle and there is a good supply of prime
cattle at sales, with prices good to very good. Drought feeding is occurring
on a small percentage of properties that are drought declared in the North Burnett.
Some near coastal districts still have good green feed for stock. However, away
from the coast and north of Maryborough, conditions have been very dry. In the
Bundaberg district, couch grass pastures are very dry and short but will respond
in the short term to the rain received.
South Region: Stock benefited from the general summer
rain and subsequent pasture growth. Grazing animals have maintained average
to above body condition. Cattle prices remain buoyant and pig and lamb markets
continue to attract good prices. Wool prices have recently risen to a two year
high. There is likely to be an increase in supplementary feeding as the pastures
become depleted. The amount of summer pasture available for stock over the winter
period is set and producers will need to adjust their stocking rate accordingly.
CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE
North Region: Despite above average rainfall, the main
harvest of peanuts got under way on the Atherton Tablelands. The maize crop
is currently drying off in preparation for harvest and early planting of potatoes
is under way. Seasonal conditions and prices continued to work against the northern
cane industry. The rain also caused some delays in planting sweet corn and beans
and was a factor in an increase in leaf disease in melons. The extreme conditions
have caused fungal problems in pawpaws with fruit quality, demand and returns
in bananas down.
Central Region: The early part of April remained dry for
most parts of the Callide and Dawson Valleys, allowing nearly all of the late
mungbean and some of the late sorghum crops to be harvested. The steady rainfall
resulted in very little runoff and maximum replenishment of soil moisture levels.
Some wheat planting was under way in the last few days of the month but further
showers have meant that most will not plant until the second week of May. Wheat
will be the most common crop choice, although an increase in chickpeas is expected
this season. There has been excellent widespread rain throughout the Central
Highlands in late April which has benefited the late sunflower and maize crops
which were becoming quite moisture stressed. Conditions are ideal for planting
wheat and chickpeas. However, there is concern about the northern sorghum crops,
as many of the more advanced crops are showing some degree of sprouting which
will reduce crop value.
South-East Region: Most crops which were planted early
have done quite well but later crops have struggled to mature under the generally
dry conditions. Early peanut and corn crops have generally yielded well but
later corn crops have been severely stressed. Most cropping areas need substantial
rainfall to allow planting of winter crops. Autumn potato crops in the Gatton
area are being dug but currently potato and onion prices are low. Some beans
and sweet corn are still being harvested and Bundaberg district farmers are
now preparing for or have planted tomatoes, capsicums, zucchini, snow peas and
some beans. A drier than average month has been experienced but prices have
been reasonable to good for most crops.
South Region: The cotton harvest commenced this month
with the drier weather causing minimal interruptions. The cooler weather through
the growing period and reduced rainfall affected final yields but this has been
offset as cotton prices have risen over recent weeks. Sorghum crops have yielded
exceptionally well and sunflower production has been satisfactory. There is
reasonable sub soil moisture available in most cropping areas and planting of
winter crops will begin in May if sufficient planting rain falls. Yield and
quality of apple, grape and stonefruits were affected by the cool and wet conditions
during the growing season.
RAINFALL
North Region: Atherton received 147mm, Babinda 1158mm,
Cairns 605mm, Herberton 104mm, Malanda 273mm, Ingham 501mm, Innisfail 773mm,
Townsville 546mm, Tully 1094mm, Bowen 143mm, Charters Towers 142mm and Georgetown
64mm.
West Region: Birdsville recorded 86mm, Boulia 117mm, Windorah
76mm, Cloncurry 94mm, Mt Isa 47mm, Longreach 158mm, Muttaburra 76mm, Winton
60mm, Eromanga 134mm, Augathella 103mm and Charleville 54mm.
Central Region: Clermont recorded 143mm, Alpha 78mm, Springsure
46mm, Mackay 416mm, Yaamba 131mm, Proserpine 223mm, Biloela 68mm, Mt Larcom
33m, Gladstone 45mm, and Theodore 51mm.
South-East Region: Eidsvold recorded 27mm, Gayndah 38mm,
Mundubbera 50mm, Esk 18mm, Kilkivan 37mm, Kingaroy 33mm, Murgon 69mm, Nanango
35mm, Proston 41mm, and Beaudesert 4mm. On the coastal fringe Bundaberg received
41mm, Maryborough 88mm, Nambour 187mm and Tewantin 135mm.
South Region: Clifton recorded 8mm, Dalby 10mm, Goondiwindi
13mm, Inglewood 10mm, Oakey 10mm, Pittsworth 8mm, Stanthorpe 19mm, Toowoomba
38mm, Warwick 12mm, Roma 20mm, St George 60mm and Taroom 41mm.
WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES
North Region: All North Queensland areas received at least
average rainfall in April, with most being above average.
West Region: Water supplies are sufficient across the
west, except for small areas within the Blackall, Tambo and Charleville districts.
These areas are experiencing a shortfall of surface water due to a lack of run-off
producing rains.
Central Region: Rainfall during April for a broad area
of Central Queensland has been above average. However, there are still areas
which have missed out on significant rain such as properties around the lower
Connors River. Western streams have returned to their base flow after major
flooding in February. During April most weirs were between 50 and 100 percent
full while the major dams were variable depending on their catchment area.
South-East Region: Rainfall along the coastal fringe has
been greater than inland areas, but in spite of this some centres across the
southern and northern part of the region received average rainfall. However,
little of this rainfall has been effective. Many creeks and watercourses have
continued to run in near coastal areas. Producers in many areas of the North
Burnett and to a lesser extent, the South Burnett, report dry dams and bores
rapidly losing supply. Underground supplies have been replenished in some areas
but generally it will take considerable rainfall to fully return these reserves
to former levels.
South Region: Rainfall recorded within the region was
low. Stock water in the Mitchell, Oakey and Chinchilla areas is of concern and
dam storages throughout the region vary with some receiving limited runoff over
the summer. Moderate runoff was experienced downstream of Surat in the Balonne
River. Flows in the Culgoa and Balonne Rivers downstream of St George were regulated
releases due to the moderate flooding upstream of Beardmore Dam. The shower
and storm activity had no impact on flows in the Condamine, Macintyre and Dumaresq
Rivers. The drier conditions have increased demands for irrigation supplies
but the major storage situation is generally good.
Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY
Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454
National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)
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The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries. |
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