SITUATION AS AT 1 SEPTEMBER 2000 OUTLOOK
Based on the latest values and trends of the Southern
Oscillation Index (SOI), the probabilities of receiving median rainfall or better
over the total September to November period are little different from the 'normal'
for this time of year in most of the eastern States of Australia. This means
there are equal chances of receiving above-median or below-median rainfall.
In Queensland, exceptions are parts of the Central Highlands and north-eastern
quarter, where probabilities are 60-70%. However, the current dry conditions
over much of Queensland have been partially due to the high-pressure cells travelling
further north than normal. This will most likely continue to have an effect
through spring and may reduce the effect of a rising SOI phase on the chances
of above-median rainfall. Years in the past when climatic indicators were similar
to the present include 1971,1963,1962,1957,1929 and 1925.
Sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central and eastern
equatorial Pacific Ocean are now close to the long-term average. Ocean temperatures
off the Queensland and northern Australian coastline are now slightly cooler
than normal. However, SSTs off the southern half of Western Australia are significantly
warmer than normal. With regard to the future development of climatic patterns,
most forecasts from the best experimental general circulation models are suggesting
that neutral conditions will continue though summer, and that SST's in the eastern
equatorial Pacific will become slightly warmer than average. There is a high
probability that the frost season will finish one to two weeks earlier than
normal in some districts of Queensland. However, the expected number of frosts,
and the chances of getting at least one frost, are about average. Current soil
moisture levels are low over much of Queensland. When this is combined with
the seasonal rainfall outlook, the probabilities of obtaining median pasture
growth or better during the August-October period are only 10-40% over much
of the State. However, pasture growth during this period is generally low, but
can be valuable in terms of animal nutrition.
STATE OVERVIEW
The State has experienced cool, dry winter conditions
with some frost and dry winds. There has been lower than average rainfall in
some areas, particularly in the South and South-East Regions. West Region is
experiencing an excellent season and conditions in North Region are also good
and have been assisted by a later wet season. The quality and quantity of pastures
has boosted the condition and supply of cattle in these regions. Good rainfall
in early August has ensured an above average yield for wheat and chickpea crops
in the southern part of the Central Highlands. Currently there are 127 properties
in 18 shires which are declared under Individual Droughted Property (IDP) provisions
which is an increase of 25 properties from the previous month. These declarations
represent less than one percent of the land area of the State.
REGIONAL SUMMARIES
North Region: The conditions in the north are generally
dry with cooler nights. Most industries have reported favourable growing conditions,
with the situation improving with the increase in temperatures. The beef and
dairy industries are experiencing their normal seasonal dry period. There is
a bulk of feed still available, but this is also providing fuel for fires which
are becoming very common.
West Region: Generally the region has hayed off which
is normal for this time of year and a bulk of dry feed remains on the ground.
Livestock are in good to very good condition and much of the west is experiencing
one of its best seasons in years.
Central Region: Minor falls of rain were recorded in Central
Region during August, with the highest totals in the Bauhinia Shire. Falls in
the rest of the region were average to below average for the month. Winter crop
prospects in the southern Central Highlands are excellent with above average
wheat and chickpea yields possible. Pasture and livestock condition are reasonable
for this time of year, apart from the older breeders and stock in northern coastal
areas where cattle are generally struggling. Prime cattle and good quality stores
are still available.
South-East Region:. Dry conditions are starting to affect
all industries in the region. In the Burnett, very few winter crops will be
harvested with many being fed off or baled for hay in the north. In the south,
a high percentage of crops will be ploughed in due to lack of rainfall. A combination
of cold conditions, with frosts, winds and below average temperatures and rainfall
has caused a deterioration in animal and pasture condition. Despite the dry
conditions, the rainfall deficit in many areas has not reached a critical point.
South Region: Rainfall was below average for most of the
region throughout the winter months. However, there were falls of 20mm-60mm
in the western parts which has assisted crop and stock feed production. The
Darling Downs is experiencing dry conditions and some shires are experiencing
water and pasture concerns. The clovers and herbages struck but had insufficient
rain to progress production. If stocking numbers are not adjusted in some districts
a shortage of feed and water may occur.
LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES:
North Region: Abbatoirs are at full capacity and store
stock are still in good demand for feedlot, restocking and export slaughter
works. The north region is experiencing typical dry seasonal conditions after
the good wet season. Pastures have dried out considerably but not to unexpected
stages.
West Region: Despite some frost affecting pastures, there
is abundant bulk on the ground and stock are generally in very good condition
for this time of year. The Central western Mitchell grass pastures have hayed
off but there is fresh new growth appearing from soil moisture, providing green
pick for livestock. Winter herbage is also providing some supplementation in
frosted pastures throughout other regions of western Queensland.
Central Region: In most parts of the region stock have
held their condition and are in good condition for this time of year. There
has been a decline (not unexpected at this time of year) in breeders, generally
in the older cows and in the drier areas. Pasture conditions are generally good
with some areas of concern, particularly west of Springsure and parts of Biloela
Stock District. Further frosts have affected pasture quality in some places
and the pasture situation varies from denuded to greenness and a body of feed.
South-East Region: All areas report that stock are now
losing condition due to the cold winter conditions and poor feed quality, although
properties with conservative stocking rates still have animals in good condition
and some dry feed available. Stock numbers moving to sale are on the increase
due to the dry conditions and prices and demand have remained strong, allowing
any overstocked properties to lighten off numbers. There has been an increase
in the amount of supplementary feeding taking place. Winter frosts and cold,
dry winds have decreased quality and quantity of pasture. Overstocked properties
are very bare and even on properties with feed, there is decreasing bulk of
pasture and no fresh growth due to lack of rain. The dryness of vegetation has
caused extreme fire danger.
South Region: Stock condition in general has declined
through the winter but prices remain buoyant. The good prices and the need in
some areas to lighten stock numbers over winter have ensured continued sale
numbers. Oat plantings for stock production on the Darling Downs have been largely
reduced and there is likely to be an increase in supplementary feeding as the
quality and quantity of pastures is reduced. The severity and frequency of frosts
have reduced the quality of pastures. The sale of hay and cottonseed has increased.
Protein lick blocks are being used where there is insufficient quantity of pasture
available.
CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE
North Region: With dry conditions and cooler nights, most
horticulture industries have reported favourable growing conditions, especially
for bananas. Mangoes have had a good flowering season, however, it is too early
to comment on fruit set. Drier conditions have meant that potato crops are being
irrigated and frosts have affected some crops, mainly in the Ravenshoe area.
Cane harvesting should finish earlier than normal due largely to the smaller
crop.
Central Region: Rainfall in the Dawson and Callide Valleys
has been less than most crops needed to reach their potential, given the reasonable
start to the season. Wheat crops planted in low lying areas have suffered frost
damage and some are showing signs of moisture stress, particularly those that
were double cropped or planted in lighter soil types. The chickpea crops planted
are faring slightly better with many now in the pod fill stage. In the southern
part of the Central Highlands, good rainfall in early August has ensured an
above average yield for wheat and chickpea crops. However, many areas north
of Clermont missed the August rain and most crops here are stressed. There will
be a significant area of spring sorghum and some mungbeans on the Highlands
if good rain falls in the near future. Good rain received in autumn and early
winter has resulted in many paddocks having excellent soil moisture reserves.
South-East Region: A great majority of winter crops have
been a failure and have either been baled for hay, fed off or in the worst cases,
ploughed in, particularly in the north of Kingaroy and the Coalstoun Lakes areas.
Average winter conditions have prevailed in the Gatton district, and Bundaberg
district farmers have experienced a slowing in the growth of crops due to frosts
and cool conditions. Dry conditions in the Nambour district have been favourable
for lack of disease in most of the horticultural crops. Stone fruit are now
coming into season with the first pick expected mid way through September and
the custard apple season is now completed. The cane harvest is over half way
through in the Bundaberg area with reasonable yields and CCS levels being attained.
South Region: Rainfall in general was below average in
the grain growing areas. Falls of 25-50mm were required in August to maintain
production and to improve the wheat yield throughout the crucial flowering and
grain setting period. Although the western areas achieved these falls, the bulk
of the grain growing areas on the Downs missed this important rainfall event.
Parts of the Downs which had insufficient rain to plant opted to keep fallow
for the summer crop. Cotton prices have encouraged dryland growers to plan for
this year's crop. Last year's summer cropping ground is dry due to the lack
of late summer rain and this situation will encourage growers to delay summer
planting. Over the next few months, water supply requirements for stone fruit
and apples will be critical for future production and quality of the fruit.
RAINFALL * (figure in brackets indicates average)
North Region: Babinda received 205mm (103), Cairns 55mm
(n/a), Herberton 7mm (n/a), Malanda 29mm (39), Ingham 57mm (37), Innisfail 206mm
(n/a), Townsville 0.4mm (14), Tully 191mm (n/a), Bowen 3mm (n/a), Charters Towers
0.0m (n/a) and Georgetown 0.0mm (3).
West Region: Birdsville recorded 6mm (10), Boulia 0.0mm
(8), Windorah 2mm (9), Cloncurry n/a (4), Mt Isa 0.0mm (5), Longreach 0.8mm
(14), Muttaburra 2mm (13), Winton 0.0mm (6), Eromanga 12mm (10), Augathella
39mm (23) and Charleville 37mm (22).
Central Region: Clermont recorded 25mm (21), Alpha 32mm
(22), Springsure 39mm (26), Mackay 41mm (29), Yaamba 26mm (26), Proserpine 18mm
(n/a), Biloela 6mm (27), Mt Larcom 7mm (36), Gladstone 6mm (32), and Theodore
24mm (31).
South-East Region: Eidsvold recorded 0.8mm (34), Gayndah
8mm (36), Mundubbera 3mm (34), Esk 4mm (35), Kilkivan 14mm (39), Kingaroy 6mm
(39), Murgon 3mm (35), Nanango 2mm (40), Proston 2mm (35), and Beaudesert 3mm
(43). On the coastal fringe Bundaberg received 12mm (38), Maryborough 31mm (45),
Nambour 61mm (57) and Tewantin 64mm (n/a).
South Region: Clifton 3mm(38), Dalby 3mm (n/a), Goondiwindi
17mm (n/a), Inglewood 8mm (37), Oakey 4mm (30), Pittsworth 4mm (40), Stanthorpe
17mm (48), Toowoomba 6mm (n/a), Warwick 2mm (n/a), Roma 49mm (n/a), St George
4mm (n/a) and Taroom 26mm (31).
WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES
North Region: Wetter than average conditions were experienced
in areas to the north of Georgetown but in the remainder of the region average
or slightly below average rainfall was received. Most water storage facilities
are at, or close to, 100% useable storage.
West Region: Surface water supplies across the region
are adequate in the majority of areas. There have been reports of dwindling
supplies in the Warrego area due to the lack of run-off earlier in the season.
Central Region: There were varying rainfall totals in
Central Queensland during August. Very good falls were recorded in the Upper
Comet sub basin, in particular Wyseby and Rewan. The low rainfall figures in
other areas are normal for this time of year with some areas being reported
as very dry. There was a small stream flow in the Comet, but no other flow events
were recorded. The Mackenzie River weirs are holding about 90% of their capacity
and the Dawson River weirs have declined slightly this month. Kroombit Dam is
empty and the Callide Dam remains low at 10% of useable storage. However, Fairbairn
Dam is holding 66% of useable storage.
South-East Region: Rainfall in all areas has been below
average. Many creeks and watercourses have now dried out even in the wetter
coastal districts. Water shortages for stock have already occurred in a wide
range of areas and many domestic supplies have been supplemented by carted water.
With the onset of warm to hot spring days consumption will increase and without
significant rainfall, the water situation will deteriorate.
South Region: The dry winter continued across the Darling
Downs and southern inland Queensland during August. The Condamine River remained
at low base flow in the upper reaches, grading to no flow in the lower reaches.
The Severn and Dumaresq Rivers remained in no flow mode and the Weir and Moonie
Rivers did not flow during the month. Very low base flows in the Balonne River
upstream of Beardmore Dam in July receded to no flow during this month. Whilst
there were some minor releases downstream of St George, the Maranoa River remained
dry throughout the month. The drier conditions have led to an increased demand
for irrigation supplies.
Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY
Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454
National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)
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The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries. |
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