| SITUATION AS AT 31 DECEMBER 2000
OUTLOOK
The average Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) over the
previous 30 days remains positive at +2.6 (up to 3 January 2001). Based on the
SOI, the probabilities of exceeding median rainfall during the total period
from January to March range mainly between 50% and 80% for much of Queensland
including the Central Highlands, the central coast and parts of the northern
inland. Note that an 80% probability of receiving the long term median for a
location also means there is a 20% probability of not receiving the median for
that location.
Sea-surface temperatures (SSTs): Since June we have primarily
been in a "neutral" climate pattern. However over the past few months SSTs have
cooled in some key regions of the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. This has
created a pattern resembling a La Niña pattern; 1998 and 1999 were well-defined
La Niña patterns.
Temperatures of waters off the coasts of eastern Queensland
and northern NSW are around average. However to the north of Australia in waters
surrounding Indonesia, SSTs are much warmer than average. Some general circulation
models are suggesting the potential for warming in the eastern equatorial Pacific
Ocean over the next 6-9 months. This situation will be watched closely to determine
any potential for El Niño development, or otherwise, in 2001. Close monitoring
of sea-surface temperature patterns over the next six months is suggested.
Pasture Growth forecasts: The probabilities of obtaining
median pasture growth or better during the December-January-February period
are 'above- average' over most of Queensland. However there are regions in the
southeast where the probabilities are only 10% to 30% due to poor soil moisture
conditions. STATE OVERVIEW
For most of Queensland seasonal conditions are regarded
as excellent. However, there is some flooding in the gulf country and north
west of the state. In the south east, while the situation has improved with
near average December rainfall in many areas improving pasture quality, additional
rain is still needed to replenish water stocks. The nineteen south eastern shires
of Kingaroy, Nanango, Wondai, Murgon, Eidsvold, Monto, Gayndah, Mundubbera,
Chinchilla, Wambo, Pittsworth, Clifton, Jondaryan, Rosalie, Cambooya, Toowoomba,
Warwick, Stanthorpe, and Millmerran and the western part of Kilkivan Shire west
of the Wide Bay Creek remain drought declared under State drought processes.
There are also 292 Individually Droughted Properties (IDPs) in a further 24
shires.
REGIONAL SUMMARIES
North Region: Good to flooding rain occurred over much
of the north. As a result of three wet months ending 2000, pasture species including
the perennials have already gone to seed in many areas. Soil moisture is good
for summer planting of broadacre crops.
West Region: Pastures and stock are in magnificent condition
in the region. All districts have far exceeded their monthly average rainfall
and all major rivers and streams have significant flood flows. There have been
no reports of stock losses to date.
Central Region: Rainfall was average to above average
for most of the region. Summer crop planting is under way or will begin shortly,
following planting rainfall over the last fortnight. Pasture and stock condition
are good in most areas for this time of year. Stock water supplies are adequate
in most areas. .. South-East Region: While nineteen shires and one part shire
continue to be drought declared, close to average rainfall fell in all districts
during the month. Generally most districts are faring adequately but all areas
need good run-off rainfall to fill dams and run watercourses.
South Region: Only 25mm to 50mm of rain had fallen up
to 23rd December within the region. The eastern Darling Downs has experienced
continued dry conditions. Crops and pastures have been adversely affected as
a result. Conversely, the western half of the region has experienced substantial
rain over the October and November period.
LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES:
North Region: The North Region has experienced a very
good, wet December, and seasonal conditions are extremely promising. All movement
of livestock have ceased due to the wet weather conditions and all meatworks
were closed for the Christmas period. It is expected that abattoirs and store
stock movements will only resume operations when weather conditions are more
stable.
West Region: Pastures in the north west are in excellent
condition and stock movements have ceased due to flooded rivers and impassable
roads. There have been no reports of stock or fencing losses to date, however,
assessments will be made when flood levels have receded sufficiently. Stock
and pastures in the central west are also in excellent condition. However, sheep
producers are battling blowfly waves and internal parasite infestations. Conditions
in the south west are similar with this area exceeding average rainfall but
to a lesser extent than the rest of the region.
Central Region: Most dry stock are in good condition across
all shires. Breeders continue to improve recovering from the dry conditions.
Although further rain is needed the great start to the summer season has ensured
pastures remain nutritionally high and even though dry in places, are allowing
stock maximum feed conversion and growth rate.
South East Region: Stock condition in the region varies
from poor to average and better depending on area and rainfall received. Properties
that reduced numbers early in the season are now doing quite well. As pasture
continues to grow stock condition will continue to improve. The recent rain
has allowed a dramatic drop in the feeding of stock to occur in most areas.
Some owners will continue to supplement stock until a bulk of pasture is available.
The rain with the current warm conditions will provide a good start to the summer
season but follow-up rainfall will be needed in the short term. In all districts
properties have had pasture response occurring with the rain received. Pasture
quality is excellent.
South Region: Stock condition has improved in the western
parts of the region but the Eastern Downs is experiencing drought conditions
with resultant lower body weight. However, cattle prices have remained buoyant.
Destocking continues on the eastern fringe of the region. There has been a steady
increase in drought feeding with supplementary feeding as the quality and quantity
of pastures is reduced in eastern areas. There has been significant pasture
growth in areas to the west but the eastern portion is in critical short supply.
The quality of pastures continued to decline in low rainfall areas but properties
in the western portion which received excellent rain produced good quality feed.
However, there have been some reports of rank pastures in the high rainfall
belts as high rainfall early in the season encouraged pastures to mature rapidly
through to the seed stage. This has caused a decline in the nutritive value
of the leaf portion.
CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE
North Region Currently it is the fallow period for horticulture
in the dry tropics, although picking of mangoes has continued with mixed results.
Planting of peanuts and maize continued on the Atherton Tablelands amid some
rain interruptions. Most of the peanut crop is now in, as is perhaps half of
the maize crop. Relief from drizzle and cloud would be welcome. In other areas,
broad acre farmers have good moisture for planting, and are at various stages
usually depending on accessibility. The sugar cane harvest season is now over,
and estimates put production of raw sugar in Queensland this year at around
3.8 million tonnes, or around 70% of the pre-season estimate of 5.5 million
tonnes. With the northern wet season now in place, farmers are struggling to
find opportunities to complete field activities.
Central Region: Following a very wet November, December
has been much warmer and somewhat drier in the Callide-Dawson. There has been
some reasonably warm days since the rain, which has dried out a lot of paddocks
quicker than expected. Those crops already planted generally have established
well and are growing quickly with the recent warm weather. Further rain within
the next 2-3 weeks would help these crops avoid moisture stress and ensure that
yield potential is maximised. In the Central Highlands the area planted to sorghum
in late November and early December was smaller than anticipated, as by the
time most people had controlled weeds the soil moisture at the surface was getting
a little marginal for sowing. However good rainfall towards the end of December
represented an ideal sorghum and mungbean sowing window over Christmas.
South-East Region: In the Binjour/Gurgeena area peanuts
and corn have been planted on good soil moisture with the hope of a good crop.
Large areas of peanuts, corn and soybeans have been planted and cropping areas
will now be looking for good rainfall to keep the crops growing. An increased
area of navy beans and mung beans has been planted to capitalise on better prices
for these crops. Lack of early planting rain caused many who were planning to
plant cotton to look at other options but despite this, there have been growers
who are going into areas of dryland cotton this year for the first time. In
the Bundaberg district a variety of vegetable and melon crops have been harvested.
In the Kumbia district the stone fruit season has now ended with significant
hail losses on two orchards still causing concern for owners. This season is
currently proving favourable for mangoes and avocadoes in the Nambour district,
and there has been welcome relief from flying fox pressure. In all cane growing
areas the rain has been welcome to alleviate irrigation schedules. Plant cane
and ratoon cane has been very dry with some losses occurring.
South Region: The western portion of the region received
sufficient rain to plant summer crops and to double crop in some parts. Important
planting opportunities have been missed in the eastern Darling Downs because
of the continued dry. Cotton was planted on low soil moisture in the eastern
Downs in anticipation of future rain and high commodity prices. To the west
there was an excellent opportunity to sow irrigated and dryland cotton and the
crop to date has responded well. Sorghum, millet and mungbean sowing can continue
to January but late plantings have an insect and disease risk. Most horticultural
production areas are within drought declared shires. The demand for water to
supply fruit trees and vegetables has increased due to warmer weather. Stone
fruit has been harvested with apples and grapes to begin next month.
RAINFALL * (figure in brackets indicates average) North
Region: Babinda received 754mm (331), Cairns A/P 440mm (190), Herberton 160
mm (n/a), Malanda 197mm (146), Ingham 397mm (217), Innisfail 450mm (n/a), Townsville
222mm (148), Tully 379mm (n/a), Bowen 196mm (n/a), Charters Towers 272mm (n/a)
and Georgetown 151mm (112). West Region: Birdsville recorded 16mm (17), Boulia
259mm (28), Windorah 95mm (27), Cloncurry 322 (58), Mt Isa 270mm (62), Longreach
193mm (51), Muttaburra 164mm (59), Winton 197mm (51), Eromanga n/a (26), Augathella
36mm (65) and Charleville 29mm (53). Central Region: Clermont recorded 169mm
(101), Alpha 82mm (85), Springsure 97mm (107), Mackay 286mm (197), Yaamba 136mm
(131), Proserpine 287mm (n/a), Biloela 72mm (102), Mt Larcom 84mm (150), Gladstone
128mm (140), and Theodore 52mm (102). South-East Region: Eidsvold recorded 69mm
(86), Gayndah 101mm (112), Mundubbera 75mm (100), Esk 69mm (111), Kilkivan 133mm
(124), Kingaroy 161mm (120), Murgon 66mm (109), Nanango 102mm (108), Proston
94mm (108), and Beaudesert 91mm (128). On the coastal fringe Bundaberg received
87mm (138), Maryborough 90mm (134), Nambour 123mm (180) and Tewantin 135mm (n/a).
South Region: Clifton 58mm (109), Dalby 58mm (n/a), Goondiwindi 46mm (n/a),
Inglewood 40mm (86), Oakey 77mm (93), Pittsworth 87mm (104), Stanthorpe 64mm
(93), Toowoomba 130mm (n/a), Warwick 64mm (n/a), Roma 23mm (n/a), St George
15mm (n/a) and Taroom 46mm (104).
WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES
North Region: December was wetter than normal for all
parts of the north, except around Weipa, and northern parts of Mareeba shire,
where rainfall was in the average to below average range.
West Region: All districts have far exceeded their average
rainfall with all major rivers and streams having significant flood flows. Monthly
rainfall for Camooweal was 289.2mm (median 47mm), Dajarra 334.8mm (median 23mm)
and Urandangie 362.2 (median 19mm).
Central Region: December was very dry in most parts of
Central Queensland until late in the month when widespread moderate to heavy
falls were recorded. The only places to record good rainfall early in the month
were the Central West, Carnarvon Ranges and Clermont. The rain on 27, 28 and
29 December was very beneficial as it followed a five-week dry spell. Best monthly
totals were in the Central West and lowest totals were around 20 mm at Comet
and Wandoan. There is concern that there was still not a lot of run-off in those
areas that have been suffering from water shortages.
South-East Region: Rainfall in all areas has been about
average for the month with rainfall in the Brisbane Valley being the lowest.
Many creeks and watercourses in northern part of the district have had worthwhile
flows.
South Region: There have been minor flows in the Moonie
and Weir Rivers. Rain on the eastern Downs provided only limited runoff. The
Condamine River at Warwick had only a slight flow after stopping in October.
The middle and lower reaches of the Condamine River down to Chinchilla remained
dry.
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