DROUGHT SITUATION REPORT
FEBRUARY 2000
OUTLOOK
The average SOI over the previous 30 days has risen to
+13.2 . Based on the latest values and trends of the SOI, the probabilities
of receiving above-median rainfall over the total March-May period are little
different from the 'normal' for this time of year in most of the eastern States
of Australia. Exceptions are much of north Queensland (particularly Charters
Towers-Bowen area) where the probabilities are 60-80% and most coastal and sub-coastal
districts of Queensland south of Bundaberg and parts of northern inland cropping
districts of NSW where they are 30-40%. The persistent 'cool' sea-surface temperature
(SST) anomalies in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, combined
with 'warm' SST anomalies around northern and western Australia, suggest a mature
La Nina pattern. Forecasts from most experimental general circulation models
are currently suggesting that by mid-year the La Nina will have subsided and
neutral conditions dominate. However, three climate models indicate the possible
development of an El Nino, and sub-surface sea temperatures to the east of Australia
are now significantly warmer than normal, in classic 'pre-El Nino' mode. In
addition, some early research work suggests the sub-tropical ridge may again
be further north than normal this winter which may tend to reduce winter rainfall
from the Goondiwindi district through to the Central Highlands. As these indicators
provide some cause for concern, regular monitoring of them and the SOI during
the autumn 'predictability gap' is recommended.
STATE OVERVIEW
The Department of Emergency Services declared an area disaster
declaration to cover "North Queensland communities (north of and including the
local government areas of Bowen, Dalrymple, Flinders, Richmond, McKinlay, Cloncurry
and Mt Isa) affected by flood, wind or wave action from February 2000" and "Central
and Western Queensland communities affected by flooding commencing in late December
1999 and again from February 2000". There are some reports of stock losses,
minor damage to some dams and significant damage to fencing and roads. There
has also been damage to sugar cane and banana crops and other crops such as
avocado, paw paw, mango, lychee and custard apples have also been affected.
In regions not affected by flood, generally conditions were favourable but with
some dry areas in Monto and Eidsvold Shires. Currently 121 properties in 18
shires are drought declared under Individual Droughted Property (IDP) provisions,
which is a decrease of 11 from the January figures. These declarations represent
less than one percent of the land area of the State.
REGIONAL SUMMARIES
North Region: An extended period of good to heavy monsoonal
rain, followed by Cyclone Steve, delivered mixed results to northern primary
industries. While most of the northern grazing industry had positive results,
some stock losses have occurred in the flood and the cyclone affected far north
and some farming areas. The cane industry has again suffered extensive flood
and wind damage. The dairy industry on the Atherton Tablelands saw reduced milk
production, soggy ground and animal health issues such as mastitis and hoof
problems. By the end of the month, natural disaster relief declarations applied
to North Queensland communities in a defined area north of and including the
local Government areas of Bowen and Dalrymple.
West Region: February has brought general rain to western
Queensland and despite flood damage to a defined area of the Central West, a
well above average season is being experienced. Flooding and cyclones triggered
the declaration of shires in North and Central West under Natural Disaster -
Flood. Shires north of and including Mount Isa, Cloncurry, McKinlay, Richmond,
Flinders and Burke were declared Natural Disaster due to high rainfalls and
cyclone activity. The north received general light falls, with isolated areas
receiving heavier falls. Richmond and Julia Creek shires received the most variable
falls, of between 75mm - 500mm. Those in the drier areas are hoping for follow
up rain before the weather turns cooler. All major river systems were in flood
at moderate to high levels.
Central Region: Excellent rainfall was received over many
parts of the region during February and has relieved conditions considerably.
Rainfall across the cropping areas of the region was slow and steady and almost
all ended up in the soil profile with very little runoff. Above average rainfall
in the Mackay area led to floods in the Pioneer River catchment, which caused
fairly minor damage in the upper reaches of the river. Pastures across the region
have responded well to the rainfall. Some areas are still a little short of
a body of feed and will need further falls to boost growth going into winter.
The western area of Banana shire, southern Duaringa and Broadsound shires and
coastal areas north of Rockhampton could use further follow up falls. The overall
seasonal outlook for the region has improved following the useful rainfall during
February. Further falls in March and April are needed to ensure a reasonable
winter cropping and grazing outlook.
South-East Region: The month of February has been favourable
for most districts. Conditions had dried off markedly around the region but
falls of rain around the 75mm mark have improved the situation considerably.
Driest areas have been in the north of Monto and the areas around Gurgeena and
Coalstoun Lakes, although the recent rainfall has alleviated the situation.
If the rainfall continues it will ensure summer crop and pasture growth in these
areas. Temperatures have been unusually mild in all areas for summer. Although
no shires in the region are currently drought declared, Monto and Eidsvold areas
will need good rainfall before a review of IDP status can be considered.
South Region: Rainfall recorded within the Region ranged
from 50-125mm. The highest falls were recorded on the extremities of the Region.
The Region has benefited from widespread rain during summer with pastures and
crops in satisfactory to excellent condition. February's cloudy, moist and cool
weather affected crop and pasture growth. Booringa Shire has had another Individual
Droughted Property (IDP) revocation leaving one IDP.
LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES
North Region: The month of February has seen the north
region record very good to flood rains in all districts. Pasture supplies and
stock condition are guaranteed for at least the immediate future and provided
we do not get hot, dry conditions in the next month the region should have sufficient
fodder and water supplies to enable a safe transition to the next "wet". Stock
condition ranged from poor to good but with rainfall from 200-500mm throughout
the area during the month, stock condition will improve with the pasture improvement.
The combination of the early start to the wet in November 1999 and a relatively
mild January has seen cattle condition improve markedly. The last 2 weeks of
February have been the wettest period so far and should not have too much effect
unless further extensive flooding occurs as could happen along the Mitchell
River. It has been a good pasture-growing season.
West Region: Generally an excellent season. Blackall district
received very patchy rainfall. In the areas that received minimal rain the pastures
have hayed off considerably. Follow up rain would be beneficial to stimulate
growth into the drier seasons but generally the district is fairing well. Longreach
district has excellent green feed as pastures have responded to rainfall. Areas
affected by flooding will suffer until pastures can recover from inundation.
Consequently some livestock will lose condition due to pasture quality and presence
of flies and biting insects. Areas of Boulia Shire have received their median
rainfall. A small number of properties are hoping for some follow up rain to
stimulate pastures before it gets too cool for them to respond. The rivers and
channels are flowing and should provide a green flush of herbage in the following
weeks.
Central Region: Just about the entire region received
some useful rain during the month, with falls ranging from 50 to 500 mm. The
heaviest falls were in the north while the rest of the region received from
50 - 200 mm. Even though there were some good rainfall totals it was mostly
grass rain, and there was practically no run off, so the same areas around Yeppoon
and Marlborough are still experiencing water problems and need some heavy rain.
Everything is looking better than it did this time last month and hopefully
it will not be a big break till the next rainfall and the benefits will continue.
Cattle are still reported to be in good condition, and hopefully in most areas
are on an upward trend. The areas that were struggling last month such as Bauhinia,
Marlborough, Coastal Yeppoon and the far west of the Bauhinia shire all apparently
received some rain but as their season was ordinary anyway this will only be
short term relief and more good rain is needed. Most areas have a good body
of feed and it is still growing. The abovementioned areas will have short green
feed with more moisture needed to take advantage of the latest rain.
South-East Region: Most districts report stock to be in
very good condition. The mild summer weather has been favourable for stock to
maintain and improve in condition. Most properties in the northern part of the
region have now received rain and stock are doing well. Mild summer conditions
and good rainfall have ensured that the southern parts of the region have excellent
pastures. The bulk of pastures in all areas is good to excellent although some
areas in the North Burnett still have short pastures. The situation has improved
though with widespread rain.
South Region: Stock benefited from the rain and subsequent
pasture growth. Grazing animals have maintained average to above body condition
with cattle prices remaining buoyant. The good prices have encouraged good yardings.
The end of summer season is favourable for pasture growth and continued high
commodity prices. There has been little need for supplementary feeding. Some
protein lick blocks have been distributed in the area north of Mitchell, which
was experiencing dry conditions, but has since received sufficient runoff rain
to lift dam levels. The rain and warm weather have stimulated the growth of
summer pasture species throughout the Region.
CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE
North Region: In the wet tropics and the Tablelands/Mareeba
area, tropical tree fruits including rambutan which are currently being harvested
saw the quality of fruit suffer from the excessive wet, and some further damage
where subjected to the winds of Cyclone Steve. Late varieties of mangoes are
also likely to be severely affected by the cyclonic conditions. Around Innisfail/Tully,
flooding is expected to affect the quality and supply of bananas both in the
immediate future, and again in about 4 to 5 months time when bunches initiated
now are harvested. Reports to date suggest that small sections of the maize
crop which was at, or near flowering, were laid down. Feedback from the Mt Garnet
area suggests the sorghum crop has fared well. Cyclone Steve caused cane to
be blown over, flooded paddocks and infrastructure damage. By the end of the
month, all cane growing areas from Bowen north were included in the area eligible
for relief measures as a result of North Queensland floods and cyclone damage.
Central Region: The month of February has been relatively
quiet for the Dawson Callide areas, with some general rain falling in the middle
of the month helping things out considerably. Totals of 60 -70 mm in the Callide
and 100 - 150 mm in the Dawson Valley were reported over a period of three days.
As a result of the falls many growers are debating whether to plant a late summer
crop or wait until a traditional winter crop planting opportunity. Districts
cotton growers are looking for some warmer weather to help finish their crops
as the cooler weather associated with the rain has slowed the development of
a number of crops. February saw excellent widespread rains across the Central
Highlands with very little paddock damage. The rain presents a slightly out-of-season
planting opportunity for farmers, so there may be a large area of sunflower
and corn planted, despite the very low commodity prices. Growers will need to
continue to receive good rain if crops are to recover from long fallow induced
nutrient deficiencies.
South-East Region: In the Burnett summer crops are generally
doing well despite staggered plantings due to rain. Peanuts are generally 2-3
weeks behind in their growth due to the cooler conditions with some peanut crops
affected by sclerotinia and leaf spot but yield expectations are still high.
The area of sorghum planted was quite low compared to normal, mainly as a response
to likely low prices. Soybeans planted have had significant pressure from insect
pests. Most crops in the Gatton area have done well with sorghum now maturing
as conditions for growth have been favourable. In comparison to the Burnett
insect pressure on soybeans has been low. Ratoon and plant cane is doing well
but cooler conditions have slowed growth. Most cane growing districts have received
good rainfall with the northern districts now looking for further falls. Bundaberg
producers are now preparing for, or have planted tomatoes, capsicums, zucchini,
snow peas and some beans. Wet weather combined with anthracnose, cool weather,
a double flowering and a previously un-identified bacterial disease has caused
the mango harvest to be disappointing.
South Region: Inner Darling Downs cotton has had less
insect pressure than last year. In the south of the region, particularly Dalby
and Chinchilla cotton growth has been affected by cool and cloudy conditions
causing leaf desiccation. Dryland cotton yields will have benefited from rain
this month. Sorghum crops look excellent this year with the harvest to begin
next month in the more eastern parts. Due to the cool moist climate in the west,
yields are expected to be satisfactory. Mungbean and corn crops are good with
an expectation of achieving better prices than sorghum. Summer crops have had
average to above rainfall over summer. The apple harvest was delayed a couple
of weeks due the cool and cloudy conditions in the Granite Belt. In most seasons
the crop is in the market place 2 weeks before other growing areas. Reduced
sunlight had caused a down grading effect with the colour. Powdery mildew was
also a consequence of cool moist weather. Grapes maturity was delayed by the
prevailing weather conditions.
RAINFALL
North Region: Atherton received 616mm, Babinda 1298mm,
Cairns 1398mm, Herberton 666mm, Malanda 892mm, Ingham 1100mm, Innisfail 946mm,
Townsville 818mm, Tully 1594mm, Bowen 687mm, Charters Towers 285mm and Georgetown
291mm.
West Region: Birdsville recorded 16mm, Boulia 110mm, Windorah
84mm, Cloncurry 215mm, Mt Isa 210mm, Longreach 167mm, Muttaburra 305mm, Winton
464mm, Eromanga 35mm, Augathella 85mm and Charleville 42mm.
Central Region: Alpha recorded 65mm, Clermont 180mm, Springsure
102mm, Mackay 760mm, Rockhampton n/a, Proserpine 1002mm, Biloela 59mm, Calliope
n/a, Gladstone 120mm, Miriam Vale n/a and Theodore 82mm.
South-East Region: Eidsvold recorded 58mm, Gayndah 55mm,
Mundubbera 58mm, Esk 21mm, Kilkivan 74mm, Kingaroy 60mm, Murgon 54mm, Nanango
48mm, Proston 66mm, and Beaudesert 26mm. On the coastal fringe Bundaberg received
92mm, Maryborough 80mm, Nambour 120mm and Tewantin 172mm.
South Region: During January Clifton recorded 14mm, Dalby
52mm, Goondiwindi 75mm, Inglewood 35mm, Oakey 38mm, Pittsworth 35mm, Stanthorpe
52mm, Toowoomba 46mm, Warwick 39mm, Roma 67mm, St George 51mm and Taroom 117mm.
WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES
North Region: A persistent monsoon trough, followed by
Cyclone Steve generated a wet February for the majority of the north. While
rainfall maps show an area south-west of Forsayth as having below average rainfall,
this is not the case. North Head station in that area had 308mm for the month.
The area has received widespread rain with Mt. Garnet recording the wettest
February for 100 years with 536mm. There was extensive flooding in the Barron
and Walsh Rivers with 40 houses being evacuated. The railway line was cut at
Granite Creek in Mareeba with the bridge being washed away. Kuranda Range road
to Cairns was cut with engineers assessing slip damage. The Gillies Highway
was also cut due to slips and washouts. Stock losses are not yet known. The
Mitchell River was in flood with the potential for a major problem for properties
downstream from Gamboola. The Walsh, Palmer and Lynd Rivers were all in flood
at the same time, resulting in extensive flooding in the lower reaches of the
Mitchell.
West Region: The wet season of 1999/2000 began with above
median rainfalls across Western Queensland in December and followed by an average
to below average January. Heavy rain fell in February as the monsoonal trough
moved south in a classic La Niqa pattern bringing about flooding of the Central
West and activating Natural Disaster declarations. The majority of West Region
locations received more than twice the median rainfall for February with the
highest recordings being concentrated in the Central West. Locations in the
worst affected area, such as Winton received up to eight times the median. Neighbouring
towns of Aramac and Muttaburra received four and six times their median respectively.
It was this concentration of rainfall that caused the flood situation in the
Central West.
Central Region: Below average rainfall was recorded across
nearly all of the Capricorn District. Rainfall in the western areas and the
Mackay district was well above average. Mackay District streams recorded flood
flows. Western streams also recorded flood flows during February with the best
flows in the Thomson River. There was useful runoff in the Isaac River, Theresa
Creek and Dawson River but only minor runoff in the Comet. Waterpark Creek has
had only small runs but is above the extreme low levels recorded at the end
of 1999. Most of the region is in reasonable shape for this time of year. Further
rainfall would be very useful for the cropping areas in the Callide Valley and
northern Central Highlands. Water supplies in some areas of the region are also
under pressure and will need replenishing prior to winter.
South-East Region: Rainfall along the coastal fringe has
been greater than inland areas, but in spite of this many centres across the
southern and northern part of the region received average rainfall. Many creeks
and watercourses have continued to run across the region particularly in coastal
areas. Farm dams in most districts are full to 2/3rds full. The Lockyer Valley
continues to have low water storages with Bill Gunn Dam and Lake Clarendon at
low levels.
South Region: Rainfall recorded within the region ranged
between 50-125mm. Minor runoff occurred in the Condamine River as a result of
the late December rain that also saw the Balonne River in the Weribone area
experience minor to moderate flows in the first half of the month. The hotter
conditions have led to an increased demand for irrigation supplies. Counteracting
this, the favourable weather conditions have provided some stability to the
alluvial and sandstone aquifers with some recharging occurring in some areas.
The good seasonal rainfall ensured that most water sources in the district were
replenished, providing a certain degree of water security for the immediate
future.
Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY
Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454
National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)
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The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries. |
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