DROUGHT SITUATION REPORT
JANUARY 2000
OUTLOOK
At February 2, the average SOI over the previous 30 days
was +3.6. Based on the SOI, the probabilities of exceeding median rainfall during
the total February to April period are little different from the 'normal' for
this time of year in most of the eastern States of Australia, and 60-70% in
many coastal districts of Queensland and New South Wales.
The persistent 'cool' sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies
in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, combined with 'warm' SST anomalies
around Western Australia, suggest a continuing 'weak' La Nina pattern. Forecasts
from experimental general circulation models are currently providing mixed signals
regarding changes in the La Nina pattern by mid-year. However, sub-surface sea
temperatures to the east of Australia are now significantly warmer than normal,
in classic 'pre El Nino' mode. In addition, the sub-tropical ridge is again
expected to be further north than normal to reduce winter rainfall from the
Goondiwindi district through to the Central Highlands.
STATE OVERVIEW
Across the state, rainfall for January was very patchy
with most areas experiencing less then average falls. The south region was the
exception with widespread rain over the month resulting in good summer pasture
growth. The Central region continued to experience hot conditions during January
causing conditions to deteriorate. This coincides with an increase in the number
of applications for individual droughted properties (IDP) in the central region.
Overall stock across the state appear to be in fair to good condition with pastures
recovering from heatwave conditions. Currently 132 properties in 19 shires are
drought declared under IDP provisions, which is an increase of twenty properties
(all in the central region) from the December figures. These declarations represent
less than one percent of the land area of the State.
REGIONAL SUMMARIES
North Region: Much of the north received less than average
rainfall during January. Areas like the lower Gulf where the January rainfall
totals were in the lowest 20% on record also had higher than normal temperatures
for the month. The current season is mixed for grazing with some already opting
to sell into their herds, while others are building up.
West Region: New Year rainfalls have been very patchy
across western Queensland. Despite well above median falls during November and
December, January has not produced such a result. Areas including Maxwelton,
between Julia Creek and Hughenden, did not receive follow-up rainfall and high
temperatures have burnt off standing pastures.
Central Region: Heatwave conditions during January led
to deterioration in conditions across most of the region. Significantly below
average rainfall was recorded across the northern and western parts of the Central
West Region. Only isolated pockets around the Central Highlands and lower Dawson
area received above average rain but this was due to very localised storms.
Areas of the southern Central Highlands received useful planting rainfall at
the beginning of January and large areas of sorghum and mungbeans were planted
but areas of the northern Highlands have received no planting rainfall. Areas
of most concern in the region include near coastal areas north of Rockhampton,
south-western Broadsound shire (south of Middlemount) and cropping areas north
of Capella.
South-East Region: The month of January has been favourable
for most districts. Heatwave conditions for three days across the region stressed
pastures and crops but generally most areas have recovered and conditions have
been mild. The North Burnett and Coalstoun Lakes area have had a very patchy
season with some property owners receiving good rainfall and others having reported
quite low rainfall due to patchy storms. No shires in the region are currently
drought declared. The great majority of IDP's are in the Monto and Eidsvold
Shires with these areas needing good rainfall before a review of IDP status
can be considered.
South Region: Rainfall recorded within the Region ranged
25-100mm. The lowest falls were on the border region. The Region has benefited
from widespread rainfall during summer and in most areas pasture and crops are
in satisfactory condition. The rain and warm weather has stimulated the growth
of summer pasture species, in most parts of the Region. The flush of pasture
has resulted from the wide spread rain within the region.
LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES
North Region: The nature of storm rain is in evidence
with conditions variable across the grazed rangelands. A spell of hot weather
has burnt off some pasture, particularly the short annuals. Country that was
burnt last year is generally carrying short, high quality feed. Quite a lot
of buying and selling is going on in a firm market for both fat cattle and stores.
Interest in live export heifers has also increased. As a result of the variable
conditions, some de-stocking is under-way at the same time as others with good
feed are looking to build-up. Water availability is adequate for now, but a
lot of those relying on dams and surface flows need good further rain to see
them through. Stock condition for non-breeders is generally forward store condition,
breeders are at store condition, and cows with calves at foot holding, particularly
with phosphorous supplementation. Some of the exceptions are in areas (eg. parts
of Bowen shire) where animals were set back by a shortfall in protein during
spring last year and where there has been a fairly poor start to this season.
West Region: In the northern areas of the region livestock
are being sold or going to agistment. Early November rains stimulated pastures
in the area but follow-up rains were not received and pasture growth has suffered.
Stock are in good condition across the area despite a pasture deficit for this
time of year. Around Boulia, Winton, Longreach, and Blackall Stock Districts
livestock are in excellent condition. Rainfall across the Cunnamulla district
has been above the median. Consequently, pastures are in good condition and
interest in IDP revocations is occurring. Pastures that responded to early rains
have dried off due to the high temperatures. Despite patchy rainfall, stock
in the Charleville, Cunnamulla and Quilpie area are in good condition and supplementary
feeding has ceased to the north of the district.
Central Region: Although most districts have some dry
areas most reports indicate that cattle are in fair to good condition, but a
good break in the season is needed to continue this trend. There was some rainfall
early in the month in some areas of the region, but these were mostly storms
and were isolated in nature. The same areas as previously reported are still
missing out ie Bauhinia, Marlborough, Coastal Yeppoon and the western areas
of Bauhinia shire. Water shortage is becoming critical in the Coastal Yeppoon
area and in the Marlborough area and some of the drier spots could face further
problems without some rainfall. With the exception of the abovementioned dry
areas, it is reported that most areas have a good body of feed, the quality
of which has taken a battering from heatwave conditions in the last couple of
weeks. A lot of reports show that country which was burnt has not recovered
sufficiently yet
South-East Region: Most districts report stock to be in
very good condition. The mild summer weather has been favourable for stock to
maintain and improve in condition, although properties in the northern part
of the region still have stock going in backward condition due to the patchy
rain. In areas where better conditions have been experienced there have been
cases of 3 day sickness and tick fever. Demand for store cattle is still strong
across the region with a good supply of prime cattle at sales. Mild summer conditions
and good rainfall have ensured that the southern parts of the region have excellent
pastures. Despite heatwave conditions over a number of days the bulk of pastures
in all areas is good to excellent. The North Burnett has had patchy rainfall
resulting in some properties with less than average conditions for this time
of year.
South Region: Stock in the region have benefited from
the rain and subsequent pasture growth. Grazing animals have maintained average
body condition with cattle prices remaining buoyant. The good prices meant quite
large movements to sale along with pig and lamb sales also looking encouraging.
The summer season looks favourable for rain and continued high meat commodity
prices. Other than a few isolated places in the west of the region there has
been little need for supplementary feeding. All areas have adequate supplies.
The Mitchell area, which was experiencing a dry period, has had sufficient runoff
rain to lift the levels of dams. The rain and warm weather has stimulated the
growth of summer pasture species in most parts of the region. The flush of pasture
has resulted from the widespread rain.
CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE
North Region: A mixed month was experienced by the cropping
areas, with drier than normal conditions some concern for dry-land farmers.
In the wet tropics, seasonal conditions during January supported the trend of
high and synchronised production in bananas, with low prices a consequence.
By the end of January, most of the northern peanut crop was planted, with a
small percentage on the Atherton Tablelands opting out of planting late to avoid
the risk of cool, drizzly conditions later. The vast majority of the new maize
crop has now been planted. In what is normally the quieter time of the year
for cane, a relatively drier month allowed a flurry of activity as growers tried
to catch up on combating weeds and servicing fallow land.
Central Region: After a good month for rain in December
and a promising start to January, things were looking promising for crops in
the Callide and Dawson valleys. Rain early in the month saw most of the remaining
summer crop area planted. Many have opted for sorghum despite low market prices,
although mungbeans have all been popular. On deeper, more fertile soils there
has been some corn planted, but again the area is only small. Small areas of
millet have also been planted. Early January saw excellent rains fall from Capella
south to Rolleston and Bauhinia. Most growers recorded 3-4 inches of good rain
over 2 days. February is getting too late for mungbeans and sorghum, and the
sunflower price is low. Many young crops have been negatively affected by long
fallow disorder, as those paddocks were previously cropped by wheat in 1998.
Good follow-up rainfall will help these crops to pull out of this P deficiency.
South-East Region: In the Burnett summer crops are generally
doing well despite staggered planting due to rain. Peanuts are generally 2-3
weeks behind in their growth due to the cooler conditions. Corn crops are doing
well, with the area planted being average or slightly increased. In the Gatton
district conditions have been very favourable for most crops. In the Bundaberg
district farmers are now preparing for, or have planted, tomatoes, capsicums,
zucchini, snow peas and some beans. As in all districts along the coast the
mango harvest has been disappointing. In the Gatton district conditions have
been mild and favourable for small crop production. There have been large plantings
of pumpkins but unfortunately prices have not been good. In the Nambour district
there has been good rainfall however, the hot conditions caused fruit drop in
some crops and sunburn in fruits like avocado. The crushing season for the Maryborough
mill ended with a harvest of over 950 thousand tonnes, CCS levels averaged 13.23.
Crushing lasted until the end of December with 100,000 tonnes of stand over
cane left.
South Region: Early sunflower plantings flowered and the
seed head has filled well. Later plantings with monosun varieties continued
into January. The dryland cotton planted is down on last years sowing with persisting
low prices. Cooler weather and later planting has meant the crop is below normal
development. Mungbean spring plantings are satisfactory, as are the late corn
crops, with the expectation of better prices than the sorghum. Ploughing has
been considered a viable way to control Ascochtya (fungal disease) by farmers
who previously practiced zero- till. The spores only survive on chickpea plants
and if buried survive 2 to 4 months. Summer crops have had average to above
rainfall over the last couple of months. The apple harvest has begun as the
stonefruit crops come to an end. The harvest of table grapes has started with
wine grapes picked at the end of this month. Irrigation water is still satisfactory.
RAINFALL
North Region: Atherton received 230mm, Babinda 309mm,
Cairns 116mm, Herberton 215mm, Malanda 150mm, Ingham 149mm, Innisfail 426mm,
Townsville 157mm, Tully 270mm, Bowen 37mm, Charters Towers 133mm and Georgetown
168mm.
West Region: Birdsville recorded 0mm, Boulia 8mm, Windorah
4mm, Cloncurry 57mm, Mt Isa 77mm, Longreach 26mm, Muttaburra 94mm, Winton 2mm,
Eromanga 1mm, Augathella 23mm and Charleville 48mm.
Central Region: Alpha recorded 46mm, Clermont 41mm, Springsure
106mm, Mackay 104mm, Rockhampton n/a, Proserpine 175mm, Biloela 114mm, Calliope
n/a, Gladstone 112mm, Miriam Vale n/a and Theodore 100mm.
South-East Region: Eidsvold recorded 54mm, Gayndah 84mm,
Mundubbera 69mm, Esk 97mm, Kilkivan 24mm, Kingaroy 95mm, Murgon 47mm, Nanango
88mm, Proston 74mm, and Beaudesert 102mm. On the coastal fringe Bundaberg received
198mm, Maryborough 52mm, Nambour 101mm and Tewantin 187mm.
South Region: During January Clifton recorded 132mm, Dalby
144mm, Goondiwindi 44mm, Inglewood 44mm, Oakey 93mm, Pittsworth 74mm, Stanthorpe
38mm, Toowoomba 90mm, Warwick 119mm, Roma 101mm, St George 62mm and Taroom 66mm.
WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES
North Region: Drier than average conditions for January
extended over much of the north. The lower Gulf fared even worse, receiving
monthly rainfall in the lowest 20% on record. Most rain so far has been due
to storms, so conditions are patchy, sometimes even within properties. A check
on the totals over the last three months shows a lot of the north still above
average. However much of this influence is due to record November rain in places.
Cyclones have been absent.
West Region: Although rain has fallen in isolated areas
and has produced patches of dry areas, there remains high confidence of beneficial
rains during February. The majority of West Region is in average to above-average
condition for this time of year. As a result IDP revocations are expected during
the following months.
Central Region: Storm rain fell across much of the region
during January but there was only minor streamflow as a result. The storms were
patchy and small although a few good totals were recorded. The Dawson Valley
has recorded some moderate streamflows in the lower part of the catchment but
upstream storages are still not full. There has been only minor runoff in the
Pioneer and Mackenzie systems. Western streams have again recorded small flows.
Significantly below average rainfall was recorded across the northern and western
parts of the Central West Region. Only isolated pockets around the Central Highlands
and lower Dawson area received above average rain but this was due to very localised
storms. Seasonal monsoonal and cyclonic influences that often bring summer rain
from December to April have not yet developed.
South-East Region: Rainfall along the coastal fringe has
been greater than inland areas, but in spite of this many centres across the
southern part of the region received average rainfall. Many creeks and watercourses
have continued to run across the region particularly in coastal areas. Farm
dams in most districts are full to 2/3rds full. The Lockyer Valley continues
to have low water storages with Bill Gunn dam and Lake Clarendon at low levels.
South Region: Rainfall recorded within the Region ranged
20-100mm. The lighter falls were along the border. The rain influences caused
some minor flooding in the upper Condamine and tributaries. The middle and lower
reaches of the Condamine and the Balonne Rivers runoff volumes improved this
month. The hotter conditions led to an increased demand for irrigation supplies.
Consequently water levels in alluvial and sandstone aquifers are gradually declining.
Some recharge was recorded in the fractured vesicular volcanic rock systems
due to favourable seasons.
Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY
Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454
National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)
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The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries. |
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