DROUGHT SITUATION REPORT
JULY 2000
Based on the latest values and trends of the Southern
Oscillation Index (SOI), the probabilities of receiving above-median rainfall
over the total August to October period are little different from the 'normal'
for this time of year in most of the eastern States of Australia. However there
are exceptions, and these include probabilities of receiving more than median
rainfall of only 20-40% in the region north and east of a line from Emerald
to the Gulf of Carpentaria.
The cooler-than-normal sea-surface temperatures (SSTs)
in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, that characterised the 1998-2000 La
Ni–a event, have continued to recede. Ocean temperatures off the Queensland
and northern Australian coastline are now slightly cooler than normal. However,
SSTs off the southern half of Western Australia are significantly warmer than
normal. In terms of the future development of climatic patterns, most forecasts
from experimental general circulation models are suggesting that neutral conditions
will dominate until the end of the year. Many of them suggest that sea-surface
temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean may become slightly warmer
than average, which may tend to reduce our spring/summer rainfall. The current
dry conditions over much of the south-eastern quarter of Queensland have been
partially due to the subtropical ridge being further north than normal. There
is a good probability that the frost season will finish one to two weeks earlier
than normal in some districts of Queensland. However, the expected number of
frosts, and the chances of getting at least one frost, are about average.
STATE OVERVIEW
Conditions throughout the state have been cool and dry
with frosts in some areas, which is normal for this time of year. However, there
has been lower than average rainfall in some areas, particularly in the South
and South-East. Although there has been no significant rain this month in West
Region, the area is experiencing an excellent season. Further rainfall prior
to harvest of the wheat and chickpea crops in the Central Highlands will ensure
excellent yields. Harvesting of sugar cane is underway. Currently there are
102 properties in 14 shires which are declared under Individual Droughted Property
(IDP) provisions which is an increase of 6 properties from the previous month.
These declarations represent less than one percent of the land area of the State.
REGIONAL SUMMARIES
North Region: Cool dry conditions were experienced by
most parts of the north, stalling pasture growth for beef and dairy enterprises.
Horticulture production has slowed, with markets firmer in response. Cane harvesting
is in full swing under more favourable conditions, but the State estimate has
again been downsized as figures become available from the mills.
West Region: Much of western Queensland is experiencing
one of the best seasons in a number of years. Generally the region has hayed
off due to the cold weather and frosts at the end of July, but a bulk of dry
feed remains and livestock are in good to very good condition. There has been
no significant rainfall recorded during July and normal mid-winter conditions
are prevailing.
Central Region: Minor falls of rain were recorded in the
region during July, with highest totals due to unseasonal thunderstorms in the
Rockhampton area. Summer crop harvest is complete and winter crop prospects
are good at the moment. Pasture and livestock condition are reasonable for this
time of year except in parts of Bauhinia Shire and cooler weather has eased
pressure on stock water supplies. The sugar cane harvest in the Mackay district
has been revised downward due to the effects of rust on the crop earlier in
the year.
South-East Region: There has been lower than average rainfall
for many of the centres in the region and rain is now needed to ensure that
the winter cereal crops which have been planted will reach their yield potential.
This lower than usual rainfall, combined with cold conditions with frost, cold
winds and below average temperatures, has slowed growth of many crops and affected
stock condition.
South Region: Rainfall was below average for the region
and some shires are experiencing water and pasture concerns. The clovers and
herbages have struck over a wide area but have had insufficient rain to progress
production. The crop situation is more positive in the western areas. Some district
reports indicate that there will be a shortage of feed and water if stocking
numbers are not adjusted. Stock numbers have been lightened up with supplementary
feeding increasing throughout the region.
LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES:
North Region: The region experienced dry, cool to cold
conditions and frosts have caused an evident drying off of pastures in some
areas. Stock are generally in very good to excellent condition and demands for
stock are still high, with abattoirs and store/export markets very active.
West Region: Despite the frost affecting pastures, there
is abundant bulk on the ground and stock are in excellent condition for this
time of year. There have been many young stock through the Cloncurry dip as
they move from breeding to fattening properties. Export cattle are in good condition.
Pasture condition has remained stable during July. Central western Mitchell
grass pastures have hayed off but there is fresh new growth appearing from soil
moisture, providing green pick for livestock. Winter herbage is also providing
some supplementation in frosted pastures throughout other regions of western
Queensland.
Central Region: Stock are generally in good condition
except in Bauhinia Shire where some breeders are struggling with calves at foot.
Frosts resulted in a setback for pastures in most areas but the damage has not
been as severe where there is a good body of grass and some moisture in the
ground. Generally the quality and quantity of pasture is good for this time
of year but there are a few deficient patches in the west of Bauhinia and Emerald
Shires and the Bauhinia Downs area.
South-East Region: Stock are in good to fair condition
in all areas but will lose condition as pastures dry off and lose protein levels
due to winter frosts. Cold winds will exacerbate the loss of condition in stock.
Stock movement trends are generally typical of a normal winter and prices have
been good to very good. Although winter conditions of frosts and cold, dry winds
are decreasing quality and quantity of pastures, some near coastal districts
still have good green feed. Some centres in the north of the region and along
the coast have received worthwhile rainfall which has given pastures a lift.
However, there has not been enough autumn rainfall for most producers to plant
winter oats for stock feed.
South Region: Stock condition in general has declined
through the winter. However, the fat score is not unusually low for this time
of year and cattle prices remain buoyant. Frosts have reduced the quality of
pastures and at this point there has been insufficient rain to produce a good
bulk of winter herbage and medics, throughout the region. There is likely to
be an increase in supplementary feeding as the quality of pastures is reduced.
CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE
North Region: The after effects of frost on far northern
potatoes include some harvest losses and planting continued in July. The maize
harvest continued with no real problems reported. Horticulture production continued
to be slowed and variable as a result of cooler than normal conditions in the
Bowen/Burdekin district. Frost effects are still evident in tree crops and cucurbits
on the Atherton Tableland.
Central Region: In the Central Highlands dry conditions
have been very good for harvesting operations of sorghum and sunflowers. Most
wheat crops have yield potentials well above average, but rain is needed within
the next few weeks for these to be realised. Frost caused some damage to cane
crops in the Nebo area but conditions were ideal for the start of harvest and
planting operations. It has been a dry month in the Dawson/Callide Valleys.
In the Callide some crops will suffer severe yield reduction if reasonable rain
does not fall within the next fortnight. The Dawson Valley is generally faring
better with crops likely to only suffer minor yield losses as a result of the
dry weather.
South-East Region: There has been little activity for
most cropping enterprises as most areas are waiting for further falls of rain
for winter crops. There have been minimal wheat crops planted in the Kingaroy
and Coalstoun Lakes districts and small areas of barley and chickpeas have also
been planted. In the Gatton district usual seasonal crops such as broccoli,
cabbage and cauliflower have generally not been affected by frosts and cold
weather, but some late opportunity tomato crops were damaged. High rainfall
and cold conditions in other horticultural areas have helped prices considerably
for growers. Bundaberg district farmers have been affected by frosts and cool
conditions which have slowed the growth of high demand crops such as tomatoes.
The cane harvest in the Maryborough district started late due to the smaller
crop and CCS is down slightly.
South Region: Rain in general has been below average in
the grain growing areas. The area planted to winter crop is less than last year.
Areas on the Downs which had insufficient rain to plant have opted to keep fallow
for the summer crop. Cotton prices have encouraged dryland growers to plan for
this year's crop. Last year's summer cropping ground is dry due to the lack
of late summer rain and this will encourage growers to delay summer planting.
Delayed planting will also result in reduced chickpea yields.
RAINFALL * (figure in brackets indicates average)
North Region: Babinda received 29mm (132), Cairns 12mm
(n/a), Herberton 3mm (n/a), Malanda 10mm (44), Ingham 4mm (35), Innisfail 40mm
(n/a), Townsville 0.4mm (11), Tully 33mm (n/a), Bowen 2mm (n/a), Charters Towers
0.0mm (n/a) and Georgetown 0.0mm (5).
West Region: Birdsville recorded 0.0mm (14), Boulia 0.0mm
(11), Windorah 0.0mm (17), Cloncurry n/a (7), Mt Isa 0.0mm (9), Longreach 0.0mm
(21), Muttaburra n/a (19), Winton 0.0mm (17), Eromanga 4mm (17), Augathella
2mm (28) and Charleville 1mm (24).
Central Region: Clermont recorded 3mm (33), Alpha n/a
(25), Springsure 2mm (30), Mackay 7mm (48), Yaamba 9mm (34), Proserpine 3mm
(n/a), Biloela 10mm (31), Mt Larcom 10mm (38), Gladstone 4mm (43), and Theodore
4mm (37).
South-East Region: Eidsvold recorded 6mm (38), Gayndah
8mm (39), Mundubbera 9mm (38), Esk 11mm (51), Kilkivan 9mm (49), Kingaroy 29mm
(47), Murgon 13mm (44), Nanango 20mm (49), Proston 9mm (41), and Beaudesert
9mm (49). On the coastal fringe Bundaberg received 8mm (49), Maryborough 9mm
(59), Nambour 9mm (98) and Tewantin 28mm (n/a).
South Region: Clifton n/a (43), Dalby 7mm (n/a), Goondiwindi
10mm (n/a), Inglewood 15mm (40), Oakey 11mm (38), Pittsworth 9mm (47), Stanthorpe
13mm (49), Toowoomba 6mm (n/a), Warwick 1mm (n/a), Roma 2mm (n/a), St George
4mm (n/a) and Taroom 4mm (35).
WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES
North Region: Drier than normal conditions prevailed over
much of the north during July, apart from some inland parts of the far north
west of the range. There are no water storage problems with most dams at 100%
of useable storage.
West Region: Surface water supplies across the region
are adequate in the majority of areas. However, there have been reports of dwindling
supplies in the Warrego area due to the lack of run-off earlier in the season.
Central Region: There was little rainfall in Central Queensland
during July and this is normal for this time of year. No stream flow events
were recorded with all streams receding or dry. During July, Mackenzie River
weirs held about 93% of their total capacity and the Dawson River weirs declined
slightly. Kroombit Dam is empty while Callide Dam remains low at 10% of useable
storage. Fairbairn Dam is holding 67% of useable storage.
South-East Region: Many districts are now reporting dwindling
water supplies, particularly in inland areas. Evaporation rates have been high
in farm dams due to low humidity and producers in many areas of the Burnett
and near coastal areas are reporting dry dams and bores rapidly losing supply.
South Region: The base flow in the Macintyre River at
Goondiwindi has receded and the Weir and Moonie Rivers are not flowing. Very
low base flows continued in the Balonne River upstream of Beardmore Dam while
there was no flow downstream of St George. The Maranoa River remained dry throughout
the month. The drier conditions have led to an increased demand for irrigation
supplies.
Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY
Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454
National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)
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The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries. |
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