DROUGHT SITUATION REPORT
JUNE 2000
OUTLOOK
Based on the latest values and trends of the Southern
Oscillation Index (SOI), the probabilities of receiving above-median rainfall
over the total July to September period are little different from the 'normal'
for this time of year in most of the eastern States of Australia. Exceptions
are the Sunshine Coast and adjacent sub-coastal districts of Queensland, where
probabilities are 60-70%.
The cooler-than-normal sea-surface temperatures that have
been present in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean (since 1998)
have receded. However, there are still patches of cool anomalies, particularly
from the International Dateline to the central Pacific. The strength of the
atmospheric circulation, typical of a La Nina pattern, has also weakened, but
not to the same extent. Most forecasts from experimental general circulation
models are suggesting that neutral conditions will dominate at least until summer.
Also some research suggests the sub-tropical ridge may again be further north
than normal this winter, which tends to reduce winter rainfall from the Goondiwindi
district through to the Central Highlands.
Frost risk this winter is detailed in a new DPI book:
'Frost Risk in Eastern Australia and the Influence of the Southern Oscillation'
by Jacqui Willcocks and Roger Stone. There is a good probability that the frost
season will finish 1-2 weeks earlier than normal for some towns in Queensland.
Although the frost season may be shorter, the expected number of frosts is about
the same as average, and the chance of getting at least one frost is similar
to the average.
STATE OVERVIEW
Frost in many areas has impacted on pasture quality, cropping
and horticulture. Pastures are haying off which is normal for this time of year.
Stock are generally in good to excellent condition. Harvesting of cane is well
under way and most mills have begun crushing. Individual Droughted Property
(IDP) applications have increased in the Inglewood, Stanthorpe, Wambo and Chinchilla
Shires where the feed and stock water situation has worsened. There are four
new IDPs in the Taroom Shire (Wandoan district) but the excellent conditions
in West Region are reflected in a number of IDP revocations, leaving only one
property declared under State processes. Currently 96 properties in 12 shires
are declared under IDP provisions. These declarations represent less than one
percent of the land area of the State.
REGIONAL SUMMARIES
North Region: Unseasonally early frost occurred in several
inland areas impacting on pasture quality for dairying and beef and on some
cropping and horticulture. Above average rainfall continued a good year for
the beef industry. Cane harvesting is well under way but showing the effects
of the wet growing season.
West Region: Western Queensland is experiencing above
average conditions for this time of year. Although hayed off now, Flinders grass
pastures have provided an abundance of bulk feed. Forbs are a significant portion
of pasture composition this year, with many responding to recent rainfall. Pastures
also responded positively to June rainfall. Feed quality has declined in the
north due to low rainfall during June. Cattle are in very good condition reflecting
the season and maintaining strong prices.
Central Region: Some useful falls of rain were recorded
in many parts of the region during the month with highest falls in coastal areas
around Mackay and Rockhampton. Stock and pasture condition is reasonable for
this time of year with the main concern being the low and diminishing surface
water supplies which are forcing producers in some areas to drill for water
and consider carting water for stock. Some producers north of Dingo have begun
carting water. Cold conditions and frosts in some cropping areas led to some
damage in late summer crops. Most winter crops are progressing well. All sugar
mills in the Mackay area have begun crushing with some delaying their start
due to wet weather.
South-East Region: Cold conditions with frost, cold winds
and below average temperatures for all centres has slowed growth of many crops
in the region and affected stock condition. This, combined with lower than average
rainfall for the majority of centres in the South East, will affect the production
of most industries. Rain is now needed across the region to ensure that the
few winter cereal crops that have been planted will reach their yield potential.
South Region: There was some useful planting rain to the
east of the region but falls were mostly average for June with areas around
Goondiwindi and western parts below average. The summer native pasture growth
has drawn to an end and some areas are experiencing water and pasture concerns.
Some district reports indicate that there will be a shortage of feed and water
if stocking numbers are not adjusted. Stock numbers have been lightened up with
supplementary feeding increasing throughout the region.
LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES:
North Region: Stock are in good to excellent condition
throughout the region. Pastures are plentiful in most areas but the cold conditions
have hampered pasture growth. Many areas have experienced frost which has hayed
off some pastures, with some of the most severe frosts for many years being
experienced in the Eacham and Herberton Shires.
West Region: Stock are in excellent condition and large
numbers are being moved south to take advantage of the improved conditions in
the Channel Country. Pastures are typical for the winter period, having hayed
off but are of high quality and quantity. The conditions across the region are
excellent and the best for many years. Central Region: Stock are generally in
good to excellent condition with some poorer classes around the Bauhinia Downs
area. The frosts at the end of May had a deleterious effect on the quality of
the pastures, but this has been offset to a major degree in most areas by the
rain and some milder weather. The feed is described as excellent in the areas
that did not suffer the frosts, but there are some dry pockets west of Springsure
and around Bauhinia Downs.
South-East Region: Stock are generally in good condition
and stock movement trends are typical of a normal winter. Drought feeding is
occurring on a small percentage of properties that are drought declared in the
North Burnett. Some near coastal districts still have good green feed for stock.
Worthwhile rainfall along the coast has given pastures a lift but there has
not been enough autumn rainfall for most producers to plant winter oats for
stock feed.
South Region: Stock condition in general has declined
through the winter, however, the fat score is not unusually low for this time
of year. Cattle prices remain buoyant and commodity prices for other animal
industries are satisfactory. There is likely to be an increase in supplementary
feeding as the quality of pastures is reduced. There has been insufficient rain
to produce a good bulk of winter herbage and medics throughout the region and
frosts have also reduced the quality of pastures.
CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE
North Region: Frost early in the month had a severe impact
on cropping on the Atherton Tableland with losses of a peanut and a potato crop
reported and various degrees of damage to others. The peanut harvest delivered
lower yields and grades than those of average years. Maize is being harvested
with quality reported to be quite good. Incidents of frost in inland areas affected
tree crops and cucurbits. The cooler weather has contributed to banana production
being more in line with demand, resulting in a welcome improvement in price
for growers, despite fruit quality being dulled. Central Region: Widespread
frosts were recorded in the Dawson/Callide area in the first few days of the
month resulting in minor areas of crop losses. Rainfall in the middle of the
month in this area has helped crops already planted and allowed for remaining
areas to be planted. Most crops are progressing well, although those which have
been double cropped like mungbeans last summer, will be needing more rain in
the next month to ensure reasonable yields.
South-East Region: There has been little activity for
most cropping enterprises as most are waiting for further falls of rain for
winter crops. The ideal winter crop planting window closed at the end of June
and if no significant rain falls, growers will have to take the chance with
a late crop or wait for an early summer crop. In the Bundaberg district, frosts
and cool conditions have slowed the growth of crops such as tomatoes and also
some late opportunity tomato crops were badly affected by frost in the Gatton
district. However, high rainfall and cold conditions in other horticultural
areas have helped prices considerably for growers. Harvesting of citrus in the
Gayndah district is continuing but lack of irrigation water in the coming cropping
season is a major concern.
South Region: Growers have until mid July to plant wheat
on the Eastern Downs with rainfall in mid June initiating some plantings. Yield
potential will drop with the delayed planting but protein levels could rise.
Chickpea yields will also be reduced. Areas which have been double cropped have
found it difficult to successfully sow winter crops.
RAINFALL * (figure in brackets indicates average)
North Region: Babinda received 211mm (208), Cairns 32mm
(n/a), Herberton 60mm (n/a), Malanda 119mm (62), Ingham 50mm (43), Innisfail
238mm (n/a), Townsville 32mm (20), Tully 207mm (n/a), Bowen 85mm (n/a), Charters
Towers 47mm (n/a) and Georgetown 76mm (6).
West Region: Birdsville recorded 0mm (8), Boulia 3mm (7),
Windorah 0mm (12), Cloncurry 8mm (4), Mt Isa 5mm (3), Longreach 23mm (13), Muttaburra
22mm (13), Winton 20mm (11), Eromanga n/a (14), Augathella 18mm (24) and Charleville
25mm (19).
Central Region: Clermont recorded 53mm (24), Alpha 34mm
(23), Springsure 40mm (24), Mackay 72mm (64), Yaamba 56mm (38), Proserpine 67mm
(n/a), Biloela 34mm (31), Mt Larcom 9mm (36), Gladstone 64mm (35), and Theodore
30mm (28).
South-East Region: Eidsvold recorded 34mm (38), Gayndah
39mm (30), Mundubbera 30mm (31), Esk 36mm (51), Kilkivan 46mm (40), Kingaroy
40mm (36), Murgon 39mm (34), Nanango 57mm (34), Proston 47mm (31), and Beaudesert
20mm (49). On the coastal fringe Bundaberg received 70mm (54), Maryborough 89mm
(64), Nambour 100mm (95) and Tewantin 127mm (n/a).
South Region: Clifton recorded 31mm (32), Dalby 34mm (n/a),
Goondiwindi 15mm (n/a), Inglewood 6mm (28), Oakey 42mm (33), Pittsworth 37mm
(37), Stanthorpe 11mm (39), Toowoomba 40mm (n/a), Warwick 29mm (n/a), Roma 5mm
(n/a), St George 4mm (n/a) and Taroom 42mm (29)
WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES
North Region: A wetter than average month was experienced
on the dry tropical coast, lower gulf and most inland parts. Some parts of Cape
York were drier than normal and average conditions prevailed on the wet tropical
coast. Burdekin Falls Dam was 101.7% and Tinaroo Dam 101% as at 5/7/00.
West Region: During mid June a general rain influence
passed across the western portion of the region producing falls of up to 50mm
in the Channel Country, resulting in the Diamantina River and associated channels
having significant flows. There are no reports of water deficiencies in the
region.
Central Region: Rainfall was normal for this time of year
with the best falls being near the coast and in the Mackay hinterland. The Connors
River recorded another small flow event but flows elsewhere were almost non-existent.
During June, the Mackenzie and Dawson River weirs declined slightly. There was
a small release from Kroombit Dam while Callide Dam remains low at 11% of useable
storage. Fairbairn Dam is holding over 905 000 Ml or 69% of useable storage.
South-East Region: Rainfall along the coastal fringe has
been greater than inland areas, but in spite of this, some centres across the
southern and northern part of the region received average rainfall. Many creeks
and watercourses have continued to run in near coastal areas. Producers in many
areas of the North and Central Burnett and to a lesser extent, the South Burnett,
have reported dry dams and bores rapidly losing supply. Underground supplies
have been replenished in some areas but generally it will take considerable
rainfall to fully return these reserves to former levels.
South Region: A reasonable base flow continued in the
Macintyre River at Goondiwindi. Very low base flows continued in the Balonne
River upstream of Beardmore Dam while there was no flow downstream of St George.
The Weir and Moonie Rivers receded to no flow during the month. The Maranoa
River remained dry throughout the month. The drier conditions have led to an
increased demand for irrigation supplies. The main alluvial aquifer associated
with the Condamine River on the Eastern Downs remains in a depleted state. Surface
water storage is generally in a reasonable position for this time of year.
Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY
Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454
National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)
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The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries. |
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