DROUGHT SITUATION REPORT
MARCH 2000
OUTLOOK
Based on the latest values and trends of the Southern
Oscillation Index, the probabilities of receiving above-median rainfall over
the total April-June period are little different from the 'normal' for this
time of year in most of the eastern States of Australia. Exceptions are coastal
districts from St Lawrence in Queensland to the Victorian border where the probabilities
are higher at 60-80% and the tip of Cape York Peninsula and parts of central
and central-western Queensland where the probabilities are 60-70%.
The persistent 'cool' sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies
are slowly contracting, indicating that the La Nina may be receding. This is
also hinted at by other features such as the weakening of the strong easterly
winds in the central Pacific Ocean associated with the La Nina. Forecasts from
most experimental general circulation models are currently suggesting that by
mid-year the La Nina will have subsided and neutral conditions dominate. However,
three climate models indicate the possible development of an El Nino, and sub-surface
sea temperatures to the east of Australia are now significantly warmer than
normal, in classic 'pre-El Nino' mode. In addition, some early research work
suggests the sub-tropical ridge may again be further north than normal this
winter which may tend to reduce winter rainfall from the Goondiwindi district
through to the Central Highlands.
Combining the rainfall outlook with current soil water
and pasture condition, the probabilities of above-median pasture growth during
the total March-May period are 60-100% in much of north Queensland, 0-10% in
much of far North Queensland (maximum pasture growth has already been achieved)
and 0-40% in much of the south-eastern corner of Queensland.
STATE OVERVIEW
After record breaking rainfall during February, West Region
is well situated for an excellent season with pastures responding favourably,
except in an area between Tambo and on the eastern rim country bordering the
Canarvons, where pastures have hayed off prematurely. While pastures and crops
in many areas have benefited from widespread rain, parts of Central and South-East
Region have experienced drier than normal conditions. If rainfall is not forthcoming,
conditions in these areas are likely to deteriorate, as pastures dry off and
quality declines as the growing season ends. In particular, graingrowers in
Central Region are relying on rain to allow planting of a winter crop. Currently
101 properties in 15 shires are drought declared under Individual Droughted
Property (IDP) provisions, which is a decrease of 20 from the February figures.
Most of the revocations were in the West Region. These declarations represent
less than one percent of the land area of the State.
REGIONAL SUMMARIES
North Region: Seasonal conditions returned to close to
normal during March, though on the wet tropical coast this meant more than enough
rain to continue the disruptions typical of the season to date. The grazing
industry continues to have favourable conditions although some isolated areas,
such as Collinsville, did not receive much rain. Wet conditions persisted in
dairying areas of the Atherton Tablelands. However, land preparations for rye
grass were possible and cropping and dry tropical horticulture enjoyed a return
to near normal conditions.
West Region: Western Queensland is enjoying an above average
season after record breaking rainfall during February. Pastures have responded
favourably producing a bulk of green feed and a variety of pasture plants. Water
storages are at capacity and almost all major river systems have had substantial
flows. Livestock are in good condition and will continue to show the effects
of such a season going into winter. Blackall district continued to escape above
median rainfall, however there is abundant dry feed with a small amount of green
pick. Winton received further above median rainfalls during March.
Central Region: Rainfall during March was below average
for most of Central Region. Grazing areas in many parts of Broadsound and Nebo
Shires and the areas north of Rockhampton remain in relatively poor condition
for this time of year, due to a succession of dry months. Pasture and stock
condition is reasonable across most of the region, except the drier areas but
stock numbers will need to be lightened off in the drier areas as pastures hay
off and feed quantity declines. Many districts have reported concern with water
supplies and some creeks north of Marlborough, previously thought to be permanent,
are running dry.
South-East Region: The month of March has been very dry
for most northern and inland areas of the region. Centres in the North Burnett,
South Burnett and Bundaberg have all received well below average rainfall. The
drier than average conditions are causing a less than favourable outlook for
the coming months. Temperatures have remained unusually mild in all areas for
the month.
South Region: Rainfall recorded within the region ranged
from 25-100 mm with the highest falls in the lower half of the region. Pastures
and crops have benefited from widespread rain during summer. As March is the
period when native pasture growth slows, there is some concern that going into
winter some areas will have a shortage of feed and water if stocking numbers
are not adjusted.
LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES
North Region: Stock across the north are in good demand
with good prices for store, export and slaughter outlets. Cattle and pasture
in Mareeba and Lower Cook Shires are in prime condition, possibly as good as
the country will produce. Pastures have responded well to the widespread rain
and the Tableland districts continue to have abundant green feed. Pastures in
some areas are in seed and starting to dry off and follow up rains are required
to maintain good stock condition.
West Region: Across Western Queensland livestock are generally
in good condition, though not as good as expected as they are not gaining condition.
This is the result of a high moisture content in feed but pastures will improve
and reach their peak nutrient content as they begin to dry off and moisture
content decreases.
Central Region: Most stock are in good condition with
breeders being the worst off. Numbers will have to be reduced in the drier areas
to enable pastures to cope and remaining stock will slip badly without rain.
Nebo Shire is particularly dry. This dry area extends down into Broadsound Shire,
particularly west of the coastal range and into the top end of Livingstone.
The rest of the region has pastures ranging from excellent to normal to haying
off and quality of pasture is mainly good.
South-East Region: In the Boonah/Beaudesert area stock
remain in good and excellent condition but in the North Burnett around Mundubbera
and other dry pockets, stock have started to slip in condition. Stock numbers
moving to sale are average for this time of year. There is still strong demand
for store cattle across the region and there is a good supply of prime cattle
at sales. Prices have been good to very good. Drought feeding is occurring on
a small percentage of properties which are drought declared in the North Burnett.
Pastures have begun to dry off rapidly with the low rainfalls received in February
and March.
South Region: Stock have benefited from the summer with
subsequent pasture growth. Grazing animals have maintained average to above
average body condition. Cattle prices remain buoyant. The good prices and the
need in some areas to lighten stock numbers coming into winter has ensured continued
sale numbers. Pig and lamb markets continue to attract good prices. There has
been little need for supplementary feeding, however some protein lick blocks
have been distributed in the area north of Mitchell. Stock water supplies are
of concern in the Mitchell, Oakey and Chinchilla areas.
CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE
North Region: Large numbers of tomatoes, capsicums, watermelons
and pumpkins have been planted in the Bowen district. In the wet tropics, continuing
wet conditions from Cyclone Steve and consequent flooding are exacerbating the
seasonal decline in fruit quality in bananas. Some early planting of tobacco
has occurred where seed beds have recovered sufficiently from cyclone damage.
Central Region: Harvesting of sorghum and mungbean crops
in the Biloela area has begun with the dry conditions leading to crops drying
out quickly. However, cotton harvesting has been assisted by the dry weather
and yields have been high. In the Central Highlands, later planted corn and
sunflower crops have had a good start but need follow up rain to ensure profitable
yields. Many growers are looking for rainfall in the next couple of months to
guarantee winter crop plantings.
South-East Region: The mild seasonal conditions have not
favoured some crops such as peanuts and cotton which have been delayed in growth
and maturity but crops such as corn and soybeans are enjoying the best conditions
in years. The cropping areas at Binjour/Gurgeena and Coalstoun Lakes have suffered
the driest conditions. Late planted corn has had no rain, resulting in crop
losses. Currently ratoon and plant cane is doing well but the cool conditions
have slowed growth. In the Bundaberg district a drier than average month has
been experienced and preparation and planting for autumn crops has now taken
place. In the Gatton district the autumn potato crops are being dug and prices
for lettuce and pumpkins have been good.
South Region: Summer crops have had average to above average
rainfall over summer. The cotton harvest will commence soon in areas on the
Eastern Downs. Sorghum crops have yielded exceptionally well in this area with
the Border River areas obtaining record harvests. Cotton growth, especially
south of Dalby and in the Chinchilla area, has been affected by cool and cloudy
conditions causing leaf desiccation. Apples are in good supply and grape maturity
was delayed by the prevailing cool weather conditions.
RAINFALL
North Region: Atherton received 189mm, Babinda 916mm,
Cairns 484mm, Herberton 161mm, Malanda 293mm, Ingham 445mm, Innisfail 667mm,
Townsville 177mm, Tully 669mm, Bowen 58mm, Charters Towers 111mm and Georgetown
33mm.
West Region: Birdsville recorded 0.4mm, Boulia 35mm, Windorah
16mm, Cloncurry 6mm, Mt Isa 16mm, Longreach 29mm, Muttaburra 9mm, Winton 132mm,
Eromanga 59mm, Augathella 33mm and Charleville 30mm.
Central Region: Clermont recorded 28mm, Alpha n/a, Springsure
15mm, Mackay 37mm, Rockhampton n/a, Proserpine 156mm, Biloela 14mm, Calliope
n/a, Gladstone 14mm, and Theodore 7mm.
South-East Region: Eidsvold recorded 8mm, Gayndah 19mm,
Mundubbera 12mm, Esk 79mm, Kilkivan 93mm, Kingaroy 26mm, Murgon 46mm, Nanango
36mm, Proston 19mm, and Beaudesert 37mm. On the coastal fringe Bundaberg received
18mm, Maryborough 20mm, Nambour 122mm and Tewantin 14mm.
South Region: Clifton recorded 24mm, Dalby 12mm, Goondiwindi
77mm, Inglewood 85mm, Oakey 35mm, Pittsworth 35mm, Stanthorpe 38mm, Toowoomba
32mm, Warwick 28mm, Roma 43mm, St George 68mm and Taroom 21mm.
WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES
North Region: Most of the north received average or below
average rainfall during March. The notable exception was around Woodstock which
received good rain from a depression. Water storages are good.
West Region: Generally, water storages are full and watercourses
have run and filled waterholes. The only exception is the Blackall district
where rainfall causing run-off has been deficient.
Central Region: Most of the Fitzroy catchment, particularly
areas in the Callide Creek catchment and on the coast in the Calliope and Boyne
River catchments, is extremely dry for this time of year. Western streams are
receding after having major flooding last month. In some areas there has been
enough storm rain to result in grass growth, but not enough to cause any significant
runoff.
South-East Region: Rainfall along the coastal fringe has
been greater than inland areas but in spite of this many centres across the
southern and northern part of the region received average rainfall. Many creeks
and watercourses have continued to run in near coastal areas and farm dams in
most districts are full to two thirds full. However producers in the Mundubbera
district report dry dams and bores rapidly losing supply. Underground supplies
have been replenished in some areas but generally it will take considerable
rainfall to fully return these reserves to former levels.
South Region: Minor runoff occurred in the Condamine River
as a result of the late December rain which also saw the Balonne River in the
Weribone area experience minor to moderate flows in the first half of the month.
The hotter conditions have led to an increased demand for irrigation supplies.
The surface water storage situation is generally good as the good seasonal rainfall
has ensured that most water sources in the district were replenished, providing
a certain degree of water security for the immediate future.
Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY
Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454
National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)
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The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries. |
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