DROUGHT SITUATION REPORT
MAY 2000
OUTLOOK
The average Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) over the
previous 30 days has continued to drop to +2.9. Based on the SOI, the probabilities
of exceeding median rainfall during the total June to August period are little
different from the normal for this time of year in most of the eastern states
of Australia, except for the south-eastern corner of Queensland where the probabilities
are 30-40%.
The 'cool' sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies that
have been present since 1998 in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean
have receded. However, there are still patches of cool anomalies, particularly
from the International Dateline to the central Pacific. Atmospheric circulation
parameters characteristic of the La Nina have also weakened, but not to the
same extent. This recession of the La Nina is in accordance with forecasts by
experimental general circulation models. Most of these forecasts are suggesting
that neutral conditions will dominate at least until summer. Also some research
suggests the sub-tropical ridge may again be further north than normal this
winter, which tends to reduce winter rainfall from the Goondiwindi district
through to the Central Highlands.
STATE OVERVIEW
Many areas of the State experienced frost at the end of
the month which affected crops, pastures and in some cases, stock condition.
Stock are generally in very good to excellent condition and pastures abundant,
yet are drying off which is normal for this time of year. However there are
some areas of concern in the South and South-East regions where some supplementary
feeding is taking place. Growers have taken advantage of ideal conditions in
Central region for planting winter crops of wheat and chickpeas but there has
been little activity in the South-East for cropping enterprises as most are
waiting for substantial rain. Currently 97 properties in 14 shires are declared
under Individual Droughted Property (IDP) provisions. Although this is the same
total as for April, there have been changes in West and Central regions. Revocations
have taken place in Diamantina and Richmond, while one property in Banana Shire
and one property in Calliope Shire have been declared IDPs.
REGIONAL SUMMARIES
North Region: Some parts of the north experienced the
unusual event of an autumn frost, impacting on pasture quality. On the Tablelands,
frosts have also affected growers of opportunity horticulture such as pawpaws
and melons. Rainfall generally eased during May after a sequence in some places
of up to six months of above average rain.
West Region: A broad band of rain extended across the
region during the middle of the month with variable results. The central west
area received more effective rainfall than other areas of western Queensland,
and pastures rejuvenating after Easter rains were given a further boost as a
result of this and mild weather conditions. However, this new growth was severely
damaged by the heavy frosts during the last week of May. As well, smaller falls
across the northern areas resulted in some reduction in the quality of the standing
pasture as light, ineffective rainfall blackens off pasture and significantly
reduces protein content.
Central Region: North eastern areas of the region received
the highest falls in the region but rainfall has not boosted farm water storages
to any great degree. Late sorghum and corn crops in grain filling stage have
suffered due to frosting across most inland cropping areas of the region. Winter
plantings are almost complete, with most of the cropped area being planted with
wheat and a smaller percentage with chickpeas. Stock and pasture conditions
are reasonable throughout most of the region but the effects of frosting are
yet to be observed. Water supplies are a concern in the drier areas of the region
in Broadsound Shire and central coastal areas, particularly surface water supplies.
South-East Region: Very cold conditions with frost, cold
winds and below average temperatures for all centres has slowed growth of many
crops in the region and affected stock condition. This, combined with lower
than average rainfall for the majority of centres in the South East, will affect
the production of most industries. Rain is now needed across the region to allow
planting of winter cereal crops.
South Region: There are many places in the region which
are experiencing water and pasture concerns. In general, summer crops have achieved
at least satisfactory yields. The sowing of winter crops has been delayed in
the more western parts of the Downs because of insufficient rain. The summer
native pasture growth has drawn to an end. Some district reports indicate that
as winter approaches, there will be shortages of feed and water if stock numbers
are not adjusted.
LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES
North Region: Stock are generally in very good to excellent
condition and are moving in increasing numbers to both slaughter and live export
outlets. Prices for both slaughter and store stock are in the sellers favour.
Meatworks require early bookings to get stock in and store cattle are in strong
demand. Pastures are abundant but will begin to dry off as cooler temperatures
are experienced. The cold weather at the end of the month slowed growth but
the Tablelands remain green.
West Region: Stock are in excellent condition in the south
west and cattle are entering from the north to restock bullock depots. Normal
seasonal conditions are prevailing across this area and although pastures are
showing the effects of widespread frosts, plenty of bulk remains standing. Cattle
movements in the north west are continuing in large numbers, filling orders
for live export requirements or restocking for the southern portions of the
shires as well as the Channel Country. Light rainfall on matured pastures in
this area resulted in a reduction in their quality but the excellent bulk is
not affected. Cattle from the central west are being transported into the Channel
Country to take advantage of the current conditions. Recent rains were not sufficient
to produce the needed run-off to replenish dam supplies in the central west
but were excellent grass rains. Widespread frosts have ended any pasture growth
and caused considerable damage to pastures, however, this is to be expected
at this time of year.
Central Region: Stock are generally in good to excellent
condition for this time of year, with a tail of lighter cattle in the Bauhinia
Downs area. Meatworks cattle are in plentiful supply and saleyards are reporting
big yardings of store stock, reflecting stocking adjustments being made to accommodate
the pasture conditions. The region started the month with generally good to
excellent pasture conditions, with some lighter areas. Pastures responded well
to the April rain (except the overstocked areas) and until the frosts came,
there was a good measure of green feed.
South-East Region: All areas report that stock are generally
in good condition with breeders on forest country now beginning to lose condition
due to the dry weather. Generally stock movement trends are typical of a normal
winter and stock numbers moving to sale are average for this time of year. There
is a strong demand for store cattle across the region and prices have been good
to very good. Drought feeding is occurring on a small percentage of properties
that are drought declared in the North Burnett. Some near coastal districts
still have good green feed for stock. Some coastal centres in the north have
received worthwhile rainfall which has given pastures a lift but frosts and
windy, cold conditions will limit any pasture growth for the remainder of the
season.
South Region: Cattle prices remain buoyant and commodity
prices for other animal industries are satisfactory. Stock condition in general
has declined as winter approaches and there is likely to be an increase in supplementary
feeding as the quality of pastures is reduced. The use of protein lick blocks
will assist to maintain animal production. The Mitchell, Oakey, Wandoan and
Chinchilla areas are of concern in regard to stock water.
CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE
North Region: At Bowen, a dry month helped production
until the arrival of a cold snap with isolated frost in low inland sectors which
stalled most plant growth. There was also some relief from the wet conditions
in the wet tropical banana and pawpaw growing areas. Mango trees are showing
frost damage and other commodities such as pawpaws, melons, pumpkins and zucchini
in inland areas have been hit by the cold conditions. Tableland potatoes were
hit by frost, and tea and tobacco plantations have also been affected. About
80% of the peanut crop has been harvested and maize is being harvested with
the dry conditions favourable for drying out. Seasonal conditions for sugar
cane improved during May with more opportunities for planting.
Central Region: In the Dawson/Callide, most of the available
winter crop area has been planted, with wheat being the main choice for many
growers, although an increased area of chickpeas has been planted this season.
Most crops are progressing well but those planted into paddocks that have been
double cropped are now looking for moisture. Significant frosts were recorded
throughout the area in the last few days of the month and have been useful in
slowing the development of wheat crops but disastrous for the few late corn
and sorghum crops that were still forming grain. In most cases these crops have
been cut for hay. Wheat and chickpeas have been planted in the Central Highlands
and have had a very good start, with full moisture profiles in most cases. Summer
planted sorghum crops are presently being harvested here. Widespread severe
frosts have been devastating for farmers across the highlands, particularly
north of Emerald where many growers had late planted maize.
South-East Region: There has been little activity for
most cropping enterprises as most are waiting for substantial rain to allow
planting of winter crops. There have been some wheat crops planted in the Kingaroy
and Coalstoun Lakes districts and small areas of barley and chickpeas have also
been planted. As the winter crop planting window will close at the end of June,
if there is no significant rain, growers will have to take the chance with a
late crop or wait for an early summer crop. In the Gatton district, broccoli,
cabbage, cauliflower, lettuce and celery will be planted and harvested on a
regular basis for the next three months. A drier than average month has been
experienced in the Bundaberg district but prices have been reasonable to good
for most crops. In the Gayndah district, harvesting of Imperial mandarins is
continuing with prices being reasonable.
South Region: There were two planting opportunities within
the Roma district at the beginning and the end of the month when rainfall of
25-35mm was recorded on both occasions. However, the easterly portion of the
region was not as fortunate with rainfall varying from 10-30mm. Many farmers
have taken the chance to plant with available rain making use of the subsoil
moisture stored over the summer months. There are reports of 50% to 60% of the
potential cropping area planted. However, the heavier black soils still require
50mm to plant. The summer harvest of apples, grapes and stonefruits is complete.
Yield and quality was affected by the cool and moist conditions which prevailed
during the growing season.
RAINFALL * (figure in brackets indicates average) North
Region: Atherton received 33mm (n/a), Babinda 304mm (427), Cairns 77mm (n/a),
Herberton 30mm (n/a), Malanda 93mm (118), Ingham 32mm (126), Innisfail 262mm
(n/a), Townsville 32mm (40), Tully 397mm (n/a), Bowen 9mm (n/a), Charters Towers
8mm (n/a) and Georgetown 3mm (10).
West Region: Birdsville recorded 31mm (14), Boulia 0.3mm
(14), Windorah 25mm (23), Cloncurry n/a (13), Mt Isa 0mm (17), Longreach 35mm
(29), Muttaburra 45mm (22), Winton 8mm (23), Eromanga 6mm (25), Augathella 51mm
(38) and Charleville 37mm (41).
Central Region: Clermont recorded 31mm (47), Alpha 32mm
(40), Springsure 39mm (47), Mackay 92mm (115), Yaamba 72mm (63), Proserpine
53mm (n/a), Biloela 18mm (43), Mt Larcom 59m (63), Gladstone 46mm (70), and
Theodore 14mm (47).
South-East Region: Eidsvold recorded 19mm (44), Gayndah
28mm (41), Mundubbera 35mm (40), Esk 38mm (59), Kilkivan 69mm (49), Kingaroy
18mm (49), Murgon 45mm (46), Nanango 35mm (48), Proston 44mm (45), and Beaudesert
10mm (76). On the coastal fringe Bundaberg received 74mm (69), Maryborough 86mm
(78), Nambour 154mm (139) and Tewantin 199mm (n/a).
South Region: Clifton recorded 26mm (48), Dalby 22mm (n/a),
Goondiwindi 28mm (n/a), Inglewood 35mm (43), Oakey 18mm (45), Pittsworth 34mm
(44), Stanthorpe 46mm (59), Toowoomba 51mm (n/a), Warwick 34mm (n/a), Roma 54mm
(n/a), St George 26mm (n/a) and Taroom 23mm (42).
WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES
North Region: Burdekin Falls Dam is at 96.5% and Tinaroo
Dam 101%. Water supplies are plentiful. It was a mixed month for rainfall ranging
from very much below average around Charters Towers to above average over western
and central Cape York. Ingham, with around 30% of its May mean, had some relief
from the disruptive wet conditions. West Region: Rainfall extended across the
region during the middle of the month with the central west area receiving more
effective rainfall than other areas. However, there has been a lack of run-off
rains for surface water replenishment in the Tambo/Blackall area. Central Region:
The coastal Boyne River and Connors River flows were well above average for
this time of year, but flows elsewhere were almost non-existent. During May,
the Mackenzie River weirs spilled, the Dawson River weirs remained full or near
full and Kroombit Dam recorded an inflow of 1400 Ml, which was the first inflow
into Kroombit Dam since March 1999. Callide Dam remains low at 11% of useable
storage and Fairbairn Dam is holding 68% of useable storage. South-East Region:
Many creeks and watercourses have continued to run in near coastal areas. Most
districts have adequate to excellent surface water supplies particularly along
the near coastal areas. Producers in many areas of the North and Central Burnett
and to a lesser extent, the South Burnett, report dry dams and bores rapidly
losing supply. Underground supplies have been replenished in some areas but
generally it will take considerable rainfall to fully return these reserves
to former levels. South Region: Dam storages vary with some receiving limited
runoff over the summer. The relatively dry spell continued with no significant
runoff rain falling over the Darling Downs, Maranoa or Border Rivers regions
during the month. Consequently, the Condamine, Dumaresq, Macintyre and Balonne
Rivers remained in recessional or no flow mode. Total flow volumes were well
below average. The drier conditions have led to an increased demand for irrigation
supplies.
Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY
Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454
National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)
 |
The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries. |
|
