| Situation as at 30 November 2000
OUTLOOK
The dry conditions experienced this year over much of
Qld (especially southern areas) have been due to the sub-tropical high-pressure
ridge tracking further north than usual this year. This pattern would not normally
be expected to persist beyond spring, suggesting some easing of the dry conditions
is now probable. The latest SOI 'phase' analysis suggests reasonably high probabilities
(60-70%) of receiving the long-term median rainfall during the November-January
period for most of the eastern States of Australia. Exceptions in Queensland
are small areas along the east coast, parts of far north-west Qld and central-western
Qld and far central-western Qld where probabilities are 50-60%. Note that a
70% probability of receiving the long-term median for a location also means
there is a 30% probability of not receiving the median for that location. These
probability values are simply statements of fact referring to the history of
rainfall events for particular locations over the past 100 years. Sea-surface
temperatures in the Pacific Ocean are mostly close to 'average' at present,
but there are large areas of warm anomalies west of the International Dateline
(including Gulf of Carpentaria to Kimberley). However, temperatures of waters
off the coasts of eastern Qld and northern NSW are around average. Some general
circulation models are suggesting the potential for warming in the eastern equatorial
Pacific Ocean over the next 6-9 months. The situation is being monitored closely
to determine any potential for El Niño development, or otherwise, in 2001. The
next passage of the 30-50 day oscillation over Qld is expected about the last
week of December.
STATE OVERVIEW
West Region continues to experience excellent conditions
and there are expectations for another good summer in North Region. Many areas
experienced heavy falls of rain late in the month following significant rain
in October. Pasture growth in the north and west is expected to be very good.
While some rain has fallen in the drought declared regions of the south east,
it has so far only been sufficient to plant summer crops in some areas and reduce
drought feeding of stock. In October the sixteen shires of Kingaroy, Nanango,
Wondai, Murgon, Eidsvold, Monto, Gayndah, Mundubbera, Chinchilla, Wambo, Pittsworth,
Clifton, Jondaryan, Rosalie, Cambooya, Toowoomba and the western part of Kilkivan
Shire, west of the Wide Bay Creek were drought declared under State drought
processes. Following the recommendations of the Local Drought Committees, on
8 November 2000 the Minister for Primary Industries and Rural Communities, the
Hon Henry Palaszczuk MP issued drought declarations for the shires of Warwick
and Stanthorpe, and Millmerran shire on 30 November 2000. There are also 256
Individually Droughted Properties (IDPs) in a further 22 shires.
REGIONAL SUMMARIES
North Region: Good to heavy rain over most of the north
has pastures in great condition, and replenished water storages on grazing properties.
There have been some stock losses due to flooding. Farming areas had mixed results
from the rain, with some interruptions occurring, but also valuable soil moisture
provided for summer planting. West Region: Exceptional November rainfall has
given the region an excellent start to the new season and conditions can only
be described as magnificent. A broad band of rain extended across the whole
region, dumping totals ranging from 50mm - 250mm over a period of 10 - 14 days.
This resulted in medium flooding in all major rivers and streams. These falls
also far exceeded the median monthly totals normally expected for November.
Central Region: Above average to well above average rainfall for November was
recorded throughout most of the region. Highest on record falls were recorded
in coastal areas around Mackay. Some relatively minor flooding and crop damage
was sustained in cane growing areas around Mackay. Farmers are busy controlling
weeds and gearing up to plant summer crops, predominantly sorghum and mungbeans.
In the Central Highlands planting is likely to begin in the next fortnight.
Good quality sorghum and mungbean seed is difficult to source and may restrict
the final planting area. If seed is available, the summer crop could be very
large and will result in less country available for winter crop in 2001. Pasture
and livestock condition will continue to improve following the rainfall received
over the last two months and as a body of feed develops. South-East Region:
Near average rainfall fell in all districts during the month with some centres
such as Monto receiving more than their average rainfall. This has taken significant
pressure off land-holders and has enabled them to plant summer crops and reduce
drought feeding of stock. Drought declarations are in place for 18 shires. South
Region: Heavy rain fell in the western parts of the Region. However, the eastern
Darling Downs is still experiencing extremely dry conditions. Summer crops were
planted where planting rain and soil moisture profiles permitted. Pasture and
stock condition in the west of the region are satisfactory.
LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES:
North Region: Very good to heavy rainfall is expected
to boost pasture production and an outstanding season is expected. This has
limited the availability of cattle for store and slaughter purposes and has
caused increased demand with supply very much limited. This will result in early
Christmas closures in most works. West Region: Pastures have shown excellent
response to recent rains. Livestock in the north and central areas are in good
(score 4 +) condition. Many of the areas included in the central west have had
continuous green pasture for the last 13 months, with continuing good seasons
since April/ May 1997. In the south breeders were feeling the pinch prior to
the November rainfalls. The new flush will see all stock quickly revert to score
3 + condition in the next few weeks. Central Region: The Outlook is excellent,
in marked contrast to the last seasonal conditions brief. Generally stock have
responded well to the lift in pasture conditions, but chasing the green pick
caused some to slip early in the month. Ideal growing conditions have caused
pastures to come away very well. Even the drier areas of the Biloela and Theodore
Stock Districts have recovered to an extent, but will have to wait for a body
of feed. South-East Region: Stock condition in the region varies from extremely
poor to average depending on area and rainfall received. The wet conditions
during the month caused some stock losses of up to 20 head in the Boonah area.
As pasture continues to grow stock condition will continue to improve. As a
result of the rain there has been little movement of stock as owners hold onto
current levels of stock. Cattle prices have remained at the best levels ever.
The recent rain has allowed a dramatic drop in the feeding of stock to occur
in most areas. Some owners will continue to supplement stock until a bulk of
pasture is available. The rain with the current warm conditions prompted good
pasture growth and will provide a good start to the summer season but follow-up
rainfall will be needed in the short term. South Region: Stock condition has
improved in the western parts of the Region. The eastern Downs however is experiencing
drought conditions with the resultant loss in body weight. Cattle prices have
remain buoyant. Destocking continues on the eastern fringe of the Region. There
has been a steady increase in supplementary feeding as the quality and quantity
of pastures is reduced in eastern areas. The quality of the pastures continued
to decline in low rainfall areas. However, in the western portion, excellent
rainfall has produced significant growth of good quality feed.
CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE
North Region Heavy rain and hail has played havoc with
the harvest of early season grapes on some Charters Towers farms. On the wet
tropical coast, the heavy November rain has not caused too many problems for
papaws, bananas and tropical tree fruits to date. However the prospect of cyclones
over the summer has local growers wary. At Bowen, the small crop season wound
down, with most activity now involving cover crops for the fallow period. Picking
of the north's patchy mango crop continued. Good rainfall has triggered much
activity in the north and resulted in a generally early start to summer cropping
of maize and peanuts on the Atherton tablelands. This raises the prospect of
a wet finish to peanuts. A wet month saw harvesting for the three mills still
crushing in the Burdekin severely interrupted and crop estimates further reduced.
Central Region: After excellent rain in the last days of October, November continued
wet in all areas of the highlands. Most areas have received around 200mm or
more since rain began on the 30th October. Weed control has been the primary
concern, with fallow areas from previous summer crops and from chickpea crops
becoming quite unruly. All fallowed country now has a full profile, and most
paddocks just out of winter crops are also very wet. If seed is available, then
the summer crop could be very large, which will result in less country available
for winter cropping in 2001. South-East Region: With recent rainfall the main
northern cropping districts now have the opportunity to plant summer crops.
Large ares of peanuts, corn and soybeans have been planted and cropping areas
will now be looking for good rainfall to keep the crops growing. In the Gatton
district all cropping has been now supplemented by the rainfall during the month.
Up until the rain, the dry conditions have been favourable for crops, with few
fungal diseases causing problems. In the Bundaberg district rockmelons, pumpkins
and watermelons are now planted with some early rockmelons being harvested.
The rain has not helped fruit quality causing damage to rockmelons and reducing
sugar levels. A range of vegetable crops are now being harvested. Many tree
crops such as mangos are now finished flowering and were not badly affected
by the rain. In the Caboolture district the main strawberry season has finished
but some growers still have plants that are cropping. Stone fruit are now being
harvested and this year there has been a welcomed reduction in pressure from
flying fox damage to fruit. This season is currently proving favourable for
mangoes. There has also been good fruit set in avocadoes. The season has been
disappointing for lychee with the cool conditions causing poor flowering and
fruit drop. South Region: The western portion of the Region has received sufficient
rain to plant summer crops. There has been enough rain to double crop in some
parts. However the eastern Darling Downs area has not received significant rainfall
and has missed important planting or continued production opportunities. Cotton
was planted on low soil moisture in the eastern Downs in anticipation of future
rain and high commodity prices. To the west there has been excellent opportunity
to sow irrigated and dryland cotton. Irrigation supplies are short in the eastern
downs due to lack of summer rain runoff. Most horticultural areas lie within
drought declared shires and the demand for water for fruit trees and vegetables
has increased with the warmer weather.
RAINFALL * (figure in brackets indicates average) North
Region: Babinda received 583mm (222), Cairns A/P 229mm (100), Herberton 200
mm (n/a), Malanda 224mm (106), Ingham 536mm (112), Innisfail 988mm (n/a), Townsville
359mm (55), Tully 678mm (n/a), Bowen 108mm (n/a), Charters Towers 216mm (n/a)
and Georgetown 115mm (63). West Region: Birdsville recorded 29mm (12), Boulia
151mm (19), Windorah 113mm (16), Cloncurry 56 (29), Mt Isa 159mm (24), Longreach
140mm (23), Muttaburra 183mm (31), Winton 243mm (28), Eromanga 50mm (18), Augathella
218mm (49) and Charleville 195mm (42). Central Region: Clermont recorded 209mm
(64), Alpha 138mm (42), Springsure 88mm (66), Mackay 508mm (88), Yaamba 155mm
(67), Proserpine 241mm (n/a), Biloela 168mm (86), Mt Larcom 161mm (89), Gladstone
99mm (81), and Theodore 142mm (86). South-East Region: Eidsvold recorded 118mm
(78), Gayndah 142mm (86), Mundubbera 93mm (80), Esk 120mm (87), Kilkivan 137mm
(81), Kingaroy 103mm (81), Murgon 71mm (80), Nanango 123mm (85), Proston 96mm
(76), and Beaudesert 129mm (93). On the coastal fringe Bundaberg received 108mm
(101), Maryborough 144mm (105), Nambour 144mm (158) and Tewantin 175mm (n/a).
South Region: Clifton 55mm (85), Dalby 55mm (n/a), Goondiwindi 107mm (n/a),
Inglewood 60mm (69), Oakey 57mm (81), Pittsworth 65mm (83), Stanthorpe 78mm
(83), Toowoomba 70mm (n/a), Warwick 69mm (n/a), Roma 100mm (n/a), St George
198mm (n/a) and Taroom 144mm (75).
WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES
North Region: November proved to be very wet for most
of the north, with some record totals. The western coast of Cape York, and the
lower Gulf were exceptions, recording from above-average rain to below-average
rain. Water supplies are adequate to abundant in most areas. West Region: Many
properties have seen water storage facilities fully replenished, this has been
most significant in the southern half of the region where many facilities were
reaching critically low levels. Central Region: The late October rains continued
into November with record November totals being recorded in several centres.
A lot of the rainfall was steady and prolonged with a few instances of sustained
heavy falls. The highest streamflow originated in the Connors River with other
good flows coming from the Mackenzie River, particularly Theresa Creek near
Emerald. Moderate stream flows were recorded in the Comet and Dawson Rivers.
There were long periods of water harvesting in these areas. A total November
discharge of almost 2 million megalitres is about 40% of the mean annual discharge
for the Fitzroy basin and the highest ever recorded, more than double the previous
record of 820 000 Ml set in 1924. South-East Region: Rainfall in all areas has
been about average for the month. Many creeks and watercourses in northern part
of the district have had worthwhile flows. Generally there may been sufficient
rain for most producers in the Caboolture district some farm dams do need replenishment
after the dry period. In the Nambour district there was significant rainfall
at the end of the month. South Region: There have been flows in the upper and
lower Condamine. Due to rain in the western catchments the Balonne River achieved
excellent flows and subsequently the Beardmore Dam was filled to capacity. The
MacIntyre River had good flows as well. Summer cropping has increased demand
for irrigation supplies and water levels in most groundwater aquifer systems
are gradually declining. The main alluvial aquifer associated with the Condamine
River on the eastern downs remains in a depleted state. Water levels in the
aquifers in the consolidated formations in the basalt and sandstone are declining
with some of the shallower bores in the sandstone formation pumping out.
Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY
Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454
National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)
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The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries. |
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