| SITUATION AS AT 31 OCTOBER 2000 OUTLOOK
The average Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) over the
previous 30 days remains 'strongly' positive at +10.6 (up to 7 November). The
probabilities of receiving the long term median rainfall during the total November
to January period are now 60-70% in most of the eastern states of Australia.
In Queensland, exceptions are parts of the far north west, central west and
far central west where probabilities are 50-60%. Note that a 70% probability
of receiving the long term median for a location also means there is a 30% probability
of not receiving the median for that location. These probability values are
simply statements of fact referring to the history of rainfall events for particular
locations over the past 100 years.
Sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean are mostly
close to 'average' at present, but there are large areas of warm anomalies west
of the International Dateline (including Gulf of Carpentaria to Kimberley).
However, temperatures of waters off the coast of eastern Queensland are around
average.
The probabilities of obtaining median pasture growth or
better during the October to December period are 'above average' over most of
Queensland. However, notable exceptions are parts of the south east of the State
where the probabilities are only 10-30% due to poor soil moisture conditions.
STATE OVERVIEW
West Region continues to experience excellent conditions
and there are expectations for another good summer in North Region. Many areas
experienced heavy falls of rain late in the month after dry winter and spring
conditions. This generally allowed planting opportunities for summer crops and
prompted a good response with pasture growth. However, there were some areas,
in particular on the Darling Downs and in the Boonah/Beaudesert area, which
missed out on these effective falls. On 28 October 2000, following recommendations
from the Local Drought Committees, the Minister for Primary Industries and Rural
Communities declared the fourteen shires of Kingaroy, Nanango, Wondai, Murgon,
Eidsvold, Monto, Gayndah, Mundubbera, Chinchilla, Wambo, Pittsworth, Clifton,
Jondaryan and Rosalie and the western part of Kilkivan Shire, west of the Wide
Bay Creek under State drought processes. On 31 October 2000 the Minister also
declared the shires of Toowoomba and Cambooya. The area declared represents
2.7% of the land area of the State. There are also 292 Individually Droughted
Properties (IDPs) in a further 25 shires.
REGIONAL SUMMARIES
North Region: The above average rainfall over most of
the region has stalled the seasonally dry period and there is optimism for another
good summer. Vegetable production in the dry tropics is winding down while farmers
are getting ready to plant summer field crops. Cane harvesting has been completed
in the far north.
West Region: Widespread rains during the second half of
the month were unseasonal but welcome. The rainfall and warm weather have triggered
pasture growth and the country is green again. The North West is experiencing
an above average season and even before the rain much of the Mitchell grass
downs country was still green. The area from Boulia to Longreach is in excellent
condition with pastures retaining excellent bulk. The Desert Uplands received
lighter rainfalls with some areas missing out. Pastures across this area have
been grazed down with some areas showing little bulk. In the South West conditions
are average to slightly above average for this time of year. Some areas are
showing the pressures of heavy grazing with pasture stubble remaining at a minimum.
Central Region: Above average rainfall was recorded throughout
most of the region for the month. It was steady and soaking resulting in only
limited runoff in most areas. A planting opportunity is now available in parts
of the region, particularly the Central Highlands, where some sorghum and mungbeans
are likely to be planted. The rainfall has provided an ideal window to plant
dryland cotton with some producers growing cotton for the first time. Pasture
and livestock condition, although poor in the drier areas of the region, will
begin to improve following the rainfall received this month.
South-East Region: Rainfall late in the month in coastal
areas and in the Burnett has made a significant difference to seasonal conditions.
However, it has not contributed any major inflows for the Wuruma, Cania and
Fred Haigh Dams. The Boonah/Beaudesert area and the Lockyer Valley missed much
of the useful rainfall and these areas are in need of good falls of general
rain.
South Region: Heavy rain fell in the western parts of
the region and records range from between 100mm and 200mm. The Western Downs
had falls of between 50mm and 100mm but the Eastern Downs had only minor falls
and is therefore still experiencing extremely dry conditions. Generally water
supplies are low other than in the Maranoa and Balonne Rivers which have experienced
heavy runoff rain. There are concerns with regard to stock water particularly
around the Mitchell, Oakey, Wandoan, Stanthorpe and Chinchilla areas.
LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES:
North Region: All abattoirs are reporting that available
supplies of slaughter cattle are running low. This is a product of an early
wet and the fact that most properties have sold their bullocks while prices
have been good throughout the season. The early rain should hinder bushfires
in areas with a large retained supply of old grass and patch burning should
prevent the same build-up as last season.
West Region: Stock in the North West are in excellent
condition and the rain received across the area will boost the current quality
of pastures as the season progresses into the hottest period of the year. Generally
livestock are also in excellent condition in the Central West with pastures
in the area from Boulia to Longreach retaining excellent bulk. Pastures in the
Desert Uplands are grazed down and supplements continue to be fed as livestock
have gone down in condition. Reports received from the far eastern area of the
South West indicate that conditions may be deteriorating but recent rains will
provide relief. Stock are in excellent condition for this late seasonal period
and normal supplementary feeding is occurring.
Central Region: Stock condition varies according to the
pasture conditions, from very good for this time of year to very poor. Some
losses have been reported from west of Springsure and stock generally lost condition
during the month. The rain will help to alleviate the dry conditions in most
of the region but because some of the lower falls were in the driest areas,
the benefit was not shared and did not relieve all the droughted properties.
Some areas have a good body of dry feed with a green shoot showing, with the
rest of the region tapering down to denuded. Nutritive value of the pasture
is questionable in the drier areas.
South-East Region: Stock condition varies from extremely
poor to average depending on the area and available supplementation. Agistment
areas in the region have been difficult to find and because large distances
would need to be travelled to find suitable feed, minimal stock movements to
agistment have occurred. Producers have continued to sell all classes of stock
through saleyards or directly to meatworks in an effort to decrease grazing
pressure. In all districts properties are very bare with little pasture available,
although the warmer Spring conditions and rain have prompted some green shoots
of fresh grass.
South Region: Stock condition has improved in the western
parts of the region, but stock in the Eastern Downs area are experiencing loss
in body weight due to the dry conditions. Cattle prices have remained buoyant
and generally droughted stock have been removed to agistment properties as a
strategy to limit impact on the home property. There has been an increase in
supplementary feeding as the quality and quantity of pastures is reduced. The
sale of hay and cottonseed has increased and protein lick blocks are also being
used. The quality of the pastures has continued to decline in low rainfall areas
but in good rainfall areas some good quality feed has been produced.
CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE
North Region: Conditions have been favourable in the Bowen/Burdekin
area for melons, capsicums, tomatoes, beans and sweet corn. Rain caused some
fruit damage but it also provided a flow in the Don River which will assist
the underground system. Recent conditions have been favourable for good fruit
quality and yields in pawpaws and bananas but a small harvest of mangoes is
anticipated. The tobacco harvest is almost complete and seasonal conditions
have been excellent during harvesting of the smaller than normal sugar cane
crop. Harvesting has finished in the far northern sugar mills but it is continuing
in the Burdekin. Low CCS in Tableland cane was due in part to frost damage.
Central Region: Nearly all of the wheat in the Dawson/Callide
has been harvested with yields in excess of 2.5t/ha common in the May planted
crops but with variable to low quality. In the Central Highlands the vast majority
of winter crops has been harvested. These were mostly double crops which were
zero tilled directly into last summer's sorghum stubble. After the widespread
rain at the end of the month and the rains through late Autumn most paddocks
have full moisture profiles with an opportunity to plant sorghum, mungbeans
and cotton.
South-East Region: With recent rainfall the main northern
cropping districts have the opportunity to prepare land for summer crops. An
increasing number of producers have been looking at dryland cotton as a cropping
option but for many the planting window is now too short to allow proper land
preparation. In the Gatton district lettuce, broccoli, cabbage and cauliflower
crops are now finishing the winter season. Potatoes are being dug with good
yields and fair prices but prices for onions are disappointing. Rockmelons,
pumpkins and watermelons are now planted in the Bundaberg district with some
early rockmelons being harvested. In the Kumbia district a hailstorm caused
significant losses to two stone fruit and avocado orchards. The main strawberry
season has finished in the Caboolture district and with the drier than average
conditions, some pineapple growers have needed to water their crops. The dry
conditions have been favourable for lack of disease in most of the horticultural
crops. Sugar mills have finished their crushing season with tonnages well down
on last year but CCS levels good to above average.
South Region: The Maranoa received planting rain in April
and May with crucial falls received in August and has produced average winter
crop yields. Parts of the Darling Downs which received little winter rain have
remained fallow in anticipation of the summer crop. However the planting window
for dryland cotton will close in early November. Sorghum plantings will continue
until January but late plantings have an increased problem with insect and maturity
problems. The majority of fruit growers did not require water throughout winter
but the demand for fruit trees will increase from this point. Vegetable growers
require a continuity of supply.
RAINFALL * (figure in brackets indicates average) North
Region: Babinda received 187mm (109), Cairns A/P 49mm (44), Herberton 40mm (n/a),
Malanda 40mm (50), Ingham 70mm (47), Innisfail 184mm (n/a), Townsville 43mm
(25), Tully 113mm (n/a), Bowen 88mm (n/a), Charters Towers 72mm (n/a) and Georgetown
68mm (18). West Region: Birdsville recorded 35mm (12), Boulia 64mm (13), Windorah
26mm (17), Cloncurry 102 (20), Mt Isa 42mm (20), Longreach 43mm (18), Muttaburra
23mm (22), Winton 42mm (16), Eromanga 28mm (11), Augathella 95mm (32) and Charleville
46mm (31). Central Region: Clermont recorded 63mm (36), Alpha 30mm (34), Springsure
116mm (42), Mackay 110mm (39), Yaamba 114mm (42), Proserpine 149mm (n/a), Biloela
73mm (61), Mt Larcom 232mm (59), Gladstone 196mm (61), and Theodore 131mm (64).
South-East Region: Eidsvold recorded 73mm (66), Gayndah 109mm (62), Mundubbera
80mm (71), Esk 56mm (82), Kilkivan 141mm (75), Kingaroy 88mm (72), Murgon 108mm
(73), Nanango 119mm (79), Proston 95mm (70), and Beaudesert 21mm (74). On the
coastal fringe Bundaberg received 211mm (67), Maryborough 139mm (75), Nambour
218mm (107) and Tewantin 148mm (n/a). South Region: Clifton 35mm (67), Dalby
37mm (n/a), Goondiwindi 46mm (n/a), Inglewood 14mm (58), Oakey 31mm (61), Pittsworth
32mm (67), Stanthorpe 50mm (72), Toowoomba 45mm (n/a), Warwick 39mm (n/a), Roma
166mm (n/a), St George 127mm (n/a) and Taroom 91mm (60).
WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES
North Region: October was wetter than normal for almost
all of the north with the exception being part of the Mareeba district. Water
supplies present no problem in most areas. Surface water levels have dropped
in the Georgetown area but remain adequate for stock watering purposes.
West Region: Unseasonal widespread rains fell during the
second part of the month resulting in the region being well placed for the oncoming
season. The western Warrego district, which was severely affected by frost earlier
in the year, is in need of good soaking rain and run-off to fill dams and run
creeks.
Central Region: Late in the month there were widespread
falls of rain especially in the Central Highlands and coastal areas. It was
steady, soaking rain with patches of very heavy storm rain. High totals were
recorded and some moderate runoff resulted in limited parts of the district.
The highest streamflow occurred in the Calliope River and moderate stream flows
were recorded in the Comet, Nogoa and Mackenzie Rivers. There were smaller flows
in parts of the Dawson but not enough to fill the weirs or enable waterharvesting.
Further follow up rainfall is needed to boost on farm water storages and maintain
pasture and crop growth going into summer.
South-East Region: Rainfall in all areas has been below
average but falls between 10mm and 265mm late in the month have improved the
situation. Many creeks and watercourses in inland areas continue to be dry but
some coastal streams and the Mary River have run due to this rainfall. Water
shortages for stock continue to occur in a wide range of areas. Most domestic
supplies have now been replenished by rain.
South Region: Dry conditions continued during most of
October. Streams in the upper Condamine receded to no flow with the river itself
stopping flowing at Warwick. There was a flow in the Balonne River due to useful
rain at the end of October. People in all facets of agriculture are looking
for further rain to replenish surface and groundwater reserves, generate pasture
growth and fill soil moisture profiles for summer cropping. The drier conditions
have led to an increased demand for irrigation supplies. Major water storages
are adequate, however Beardmore Dam is only 37% capacity and this may be of
concern with the cotton irrigation needs in the near future.
Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY
Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454
National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)
 |
The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries. |
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