SITUATION AS AT 30 SEPTEMBER 2000
The dry conditions experienced over much of Queensland,
and especially over southern Queensland, have been due to the unusually more
northern position than usual of the sub-tropical ridge of high pressure this
year. This pattern would not normally be expected to persist beyond spring,
suggesting some easing of the dry conditions are possible within the next 1
or 2 months.
The average Southern Oscillation Index over the previous
30 days is now +11.2. For the first time in about two years, rainfall probability
values have risen to comparatively high levels for most of Queensland. The latest
SOI 'phase' analysis suggests reasonably high probability values for many areas
of Queensland for the October/December period this year. For example, the probability
of exceeding the long-term median rainfall for most of eastern Queensland is
between 60% and 80%. It should be remembered that a 80% probability of exceeding
the long-term median for a location also means there is a 20% probability of
not exceeding the median for that location. These probability values are simply
statements of fact referring to the history of rainfall events for particular
locations over the past 100 years. However, over far southern Queensland (including
the southern Darling Downs) the probability of exceeding the long-term median
for the period between October and December remains comparatively low at close
to 50%.
Sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific and Indian Oceans
are generally close to 'average' at the moment, although there are patches of
cooler than normal temperature in the far eastern equatorial Pacific. Some general
circulation models are suggesting or hinting at the potential for warming in
the eastern Pacific over the next 6-9 months. The probabilities of obtaining
median pasture growth or better during the October to December period are 'above-average'
over most of Queensland but with the notable exception of parts of the south-east
of the State. In the south-east of the State the probabilities of exceeding
median pasture growth are down to 10% to 30%. STATE OVERVIEW
West Region has experienced an excellent season and for
the first time in many years there are no individual droughted property (IDP)
declarations. The North Region has also experienced favourable conditions with
a bulk of feed, although hayed off, still available. There have been good conditions
for harvesting in Central Region and generally wheat and chick pea crops have
high yields and low protein levels. There has been lower than average rainfall
in many areas, particularly in the South and South-East Regions resulting in
an influx of applications and approvals for IDP declarations from producers,
particularly in the Darling Downs, Burnett and West Moreton areas. Local Drought
Committees are meeting to discuss seasonal conditions and assess applications.
Currently there are 343 properties in 29 shires which are declared under IDP
provisions, which is an increase of 216 properties from the previous month.
REGIONAL SUMMARIES
North Region: The conditions experienced by many areas
in the north are dry with cooler nights. Most industries have reported favourable
growing conditions with the increase in temperatures. The beef and dairy industries
are experiencing their normal seasonal dry period. There is a bulk of feed still
available but this is providing fuel for fires in many areas.
West Region: All 20 western Queensland shires are now
IDP free for the first time for some years and continue to experience an above
average season. Pastures have hayed off significantly during September but are
in reasonable condition for this time of year. West region received little to
no rain during September but this is typical for this time of year when medians
across the region range from 0mm to 10mm. Fires have been an emerging concern
in the south west with such a large quantity of fuel on the ground.
Central Region: Winter crop harvest is under way, with
excellent conditions for harvest across the region. Some wheat crops have been
mositure stressed but in general terms crops have fared well and are yielding
reasonably. There has been a dry start to Spring and a reasonable planting rainfall
will be required to initiate Spring crop plantings in the near future. Pasture
and livestock condition are deteriorating and supplementary feeding is increasing
beyond normal levels in some parts of the region. The sugar milling season is
about to finish in the Mackay district and tonnage and CCS are well down on
recent years.
South-East Region: Dry conditions are starting to affect
all industries in the region. Many winter crops have been fed off, baled for
hay or ploughed in due to the lack of rainfall. Warmer temperatures will continue
to impact on water supplies for individual properties and there is an unprecedented
number of properties carting water for domestic purposes. Continuing fires in
all districts have burnt out many properties with Boonah and Beaudesert areas
being the worst affected.
South Region: Rainfall was below average for most of the
region throughout the winter months and September. The Darling Downs are experiencing
extremely dry conditions with several shires with water and pasture concerns.
If stocking numbers are not adjusted in some districts, a shortage of feed and
water may occur. The crop situation is more positive in the western areas.
LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES:
North Region: All abattoirs are at full capacity and supply
and demand are both good. Typical dry season conditions are being experienced
with pastures generally abundant, but haying off. Some stock are losing condition
but generally range from forward store to fat. The Einasleigh area has large
bodies of perennial grasses and cattle in this area are in excellent condition.
West Region: Livestock in the north west are in good condition
but some on the lighter forest country have dropped in condition. Pasture quality
remains above average for this time of year and areas of Mitchell grass are
still green, indicating the quality of seasonal conditions in the area. Generally
the central west remains in above average condition with the Mitchell grass
downs providing a good quantity of bulk feed which has hayed off during September.
The south west is also generally in above average condition with the exception
being the Tambo/Charleville area extending down from Blackall where pastures
have dried out considerably and surface water is depleting.
Central Region: In the favoured areas stock are in good
to very good condition, with even breeders holding on, whilst some dry stock
are slipping in the less favoured parts. Supplementary feeding is reported to
be higher than normal for this time of year. Pasture generally tended to deteriorate
rapidly during the month, but there are areas where pasture quantity and quality
are good for this time of the year. There is potential for major fires and there
have been some good burns where regrowth control was required. South-East Region:
All areas report that stock are now losing condition due to the continuing dry
conditions and score of stock ranges from 1+ on heavily stocked properties to
3 on lighter stocked properties. Stock numbers moving to sale are increasing
and prices and demand have remained good to strong for all types allowing any
overstocked properties to lighten off numbers. Winter frosts and cold dry winds
have decreased quality and quantity of pasture and there has been an increase
in supplementary feeding of stock.
South Region: Stock condition in general has declined
as the quality and quantity of pastures have reduced. The sale of hay and cottonseed
has increased and protein lick blocks are being used where there is insufficient
quantity of pasture available. Abattoirs are reporting close to capacity kills
as producers lighten off stock numbers. However, cattle prices have declined
as the lower condition scores are attracting lesser prices.
CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE
North Region: Near perfect conditions have been experienced
in the Bowen area which has resulted in a high yield of produce. Most sugar
cane mills in the north have either completed their crushing season or will
be finishing in the next few weeks. Sugar content has been good for most of
the season, although the amount produced was well down. Most cane farmers are
looking for rain to help plant cane and many are irrigating.
Central Region: Winter crops in the Dawson/Callide have
dried off earlier than expected and some have dried down to sufficient grain
moisture levels to enable harvesting. Early planted crops which received in-crop
rain have fared the best. There is a small area of later planted wheat which
has struggled with limited in-crop rain and is likely to produce a lower yield,
but may produce high protein. There has been no rain interruption to the harvest,
which is a bonus for the winter crop but also means there have been few spring
crops planted. Farmers in the Central Highlands have also experienced rapid
finish to crops with some chickpea crops north of Emerald harvested by mid September.
Many wheat crops in the northern highlands have suffered from drought stress
and low protein, after a good start but no decent in-crop rain. Proteins are
also low in the southern highlands but this is mostly due to the high yields.
There have been strong prices and high yields for chickpeas in this area. Rain
is needed to allow farmers to plant spring crops of sorghum and mungbeans.
South-East Region: The majority of winter crops have been
a failure and those harvested have had low yields. The dry conditions have been
favourable for lack of disease in most of the horticultural crops. In the Gatton
district, average winter conditions have prevailed and there has been no damage
to the usual seasonal crops such as broccoli, cabbage and cauliflower. Rockmelons,
pumpkins and watermelons are now planted in the Bundaberg district and many
tree crops such as mangos are now flowering. Stone fruit are coming into season
and harvesting of citrus is continuing in the Gayndah district. Dry weather
has meant there has been no major disruption to crushing of cane but has necessitated
the watering of plant cane.
South Region: Rainfall in general was below average but
the Maranoa received planting rain in April and May with crucial falls received
in August. This has enabled average production to be attained. The Darling Downs
missed these important rainfall events and production there has been well below
average. Those parts of the Downs which received insufficient rain to winter
plant opted to keep properties fallow for the summer crop and, if there is sufficient
rain, sorghum planting will start on the eastern Downs next month. Cotton sowing
is likely to be down, especially dryland crops. The majority of fruit growers
did not require water throughout winter, however, the demand for water for fruit
trees will increase from this time.
RAINFALL * (figure in brackets indicates average) North
Region: Babinda received 26mm (122), Cairns 0.6mm (n/a), Herberton 0.0mm (n/a),
Malanda 5mm (36), Ingham 10mm (33), Innisfail 20mm (n/a), Townsville 0.6mm (10),
Tully 24mm (n/a), Bowen 0.0mm (n/a), Charters Towers 0.0m (n/a) and Georgetown
0.0mm (5). West Region: Birdsville recorded 0.0mm (4), Boulia 0.0mm (6), Windorah
0.0mm (9), Cloncurry n/a (6), Mt Isa 0.0mm (8), Longreach 3mm (9), Muttaburra
0.8mm (10), Winton 2mm (7), Eromanga n/a (12), Augathella 1mm (28) and Charleville
0.4mm (21). Central Region: Clermont recorded 0.0mm (15), Alpha 1mm (18), Springsure
0.4mm (26), Mackay 0.2mm (15), Yaamba 0.4mm (24), Proserpine 0.4mm (n/a), Biloela
0.0mm (26), Mt Larcom n/a (22), Gladstone 0.4mm (24), and Theodore n/a (28).
South-East Region: Eidsvold recorded n/a (29), Gayndah
0.2mm (30), Mundubbera n/a (29), Esk n/a (37), Kilkivan 1mm (31), Kingaroy 2mm
(35), Murgon n/a (33), Nanango 1mm (33), Proston 1mm (31), and Beaudesert n/a
(38). On the coastal fringe Bundaberg received 0.0mm (30), Maryborough 0.6mm
(29), Nambour 7mm (43) and Tewantin 2mm (n/a).
South Region: Clifton n/a (38), Dalby 1mm (n/a), Goondiwindi
5mm (n/a), Inglewood 3mm (41), Oakey 1mm (32), Pittsworth n/a (33), Stanthorpe
7mm (48), Toowoomba 2mm (n/a), Warwick 6mm (n/a), Roma 3mm (n/a), St George
0.8mm (n/a) and Taroom 0.6mm (28).
WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES
North Region: Above average rainfall was received in areas
to the north of Georgetown and average or slightly below average rainfall was
received for the rest of North region. Most water storage facilities are at,
or close to, 100% useable storage with the exception of Peter Faust Dam which
is at 77%.
West Region: West region received little or no rain during
September in line with medians which range from 0mm to 10mm. Surface water supplies
across the region are adequate in most areas.
Central Region: Low rainfall totals were recorded throughout
the region. Only recession stream flows were recorded. The best flows were in
the Connors River and originated in the Upper Connors and in Funnel Creek from
good wet season falls earlier in the year. Many areas of central region are
drying rapidly with the onset of warm conditions and a very dry September.
South-East Region: Rainfall in all areas has been below
average. Many creeks and watercourses have now dried out even in the wetter
coastal districts. It is expected that without significant rainfall the water
situation will deteriorate rapidly, exacerbated by the onset of warm to hot
days, increased consumption and continuing dry winds.
South Region: The Condamine River remained at low base
flow in the upper reaches grading to no flow in the lower reaches. The Severn
and Dumaresq Rivers remained in no flow mode. No base flows occurred in the
Balonne River, the Maranoa remained dry and the Weir and Moonie Rivers did not
flow during the month. There has been an increased demand for irrigation and
water levels in most groundwater aquifer systems are gradually declining. The
major storages are adequate. However, Beardmore Dam is 50% capacity which may
be of concern with the needs for cotton irrigation in the near future.
Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY
Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454
National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)
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The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries. |
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