|
SITUATION AS AT 30 APRIL 2001
OUTLOOK:
Based on the latest values and trends of
the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), the chance of receiving at least the May-July
median is between 40% and 50% for most of Queensland. There is a belt from inland
of Mackay to Richmond where probabilities are slightly higher at 50% to 70%.
Southern Queensland has regions including Goondiwindi/St George/Surat that have
a 30%-40% chance of above- median May-July rainfall.
Note that a 70% probability of receiving
the long-term median for a location also means there is a 30% probability of
not receiving the median for that location. These probability values are simply
statements of fact referring to the history of rainfall events for particular
locations over the past 100 years. The outlook for winter is dependent on whether
or not an El Niņo develops during the next 3 months.
Sea-surface temperatures (SSTs): The drop
in the average SOI has been accompanied by warming of SSTs in the far eastern
equatorial Pacific Ocean; however, it is too early to tell if this will continue
to develop into something significant such as an El Niņo. Many general circulation
models are suggesting that warming in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean will
continue over the next 3 to 6 months. Close monitoring of SST patterns and the
SOI over the next few months is suggested.
Pasture Growth forecasts: The probabilities
of obtaining median pasture growth or better during the April-May-June period
are very patchy across the state. In the north and in coastal regions there
are mostly low probabilities (10%) of 'above-average' growth. However, probabilities
are higher (between 50% and 70%) in central and western districts.
STATE OVERVIEW:
Generally rainfall across the state has
been variable and below average for this time of year. West region continues
to experience an above average season with excellent pasture bulk. Stock are
in excellent condition and prices are extremely good. Harvesting of summer crops
is almost complete and most cropping areas need further rainfall to provide
a planting opportunity for winter crops. The nineteen south eastern shires of
Kingaroy, Nanango, Wondai, Murgon, Eidsvold, Monto, Gayndah, Mundubbera, Chinchilla,
Wambo, Pittsworth, Clifton, Jondaryan, Rosalie, Cambooya, Toowoomba, Warwick,
Stanthorpe and Millmerran and the western part of Kilkivan Shire west of the
Wide Bay Creek remain drought declared under State drought processes. There
are also 313 Individually Droughted Properties (IDPs) in a further 25 shires.
These declarations represent 3.4% of the land area of the state.
REGIONAL SUMMARIES:
North Region: A generally dry April following
a similar March showed in both the cropping and grazing industries. Pasture
decline is evident in most grazing areas and there are differences expected
between early and late harvests of crops like maize and peanuts. West Region:
Generally the region remains in above average condition with excellent pasture
bulk in most areas. Even though rainfall has been extremely variable across
the region (in many cases much below median levels, resulting in the premature
maturing of pastures), stock are in excellent condition and current market values
are resulting in major movements to sale. Some areas that have received no rain
since before Christmas are drying out significantly, in particular the area
around Adavale, Quilpie, Charleville and Cunnamulla. Central Region:. Rainfall
for April was average to below average across most of Central Queensland. Livestock
condition is still good to excellent throughout most of the region and in general,
feed supplies remain adequate in quality and quantity. Harvesting of summer
crops is almost complete, however, overcast weather in the Central Highlands
disrupted operations due to grain being too moist to harvest and transport to
depots. The cropping outlook remains reasonably positive across most of the
region, following good summer crop yields in many areas and the expectation
of planting winter crop after the next planting rainfall event. Most cropping
areas will need further rainfall to provide a planting opportunity for winter
crops. South-East Region: Rainfall across the region was extremely limited during
the month. However, some areas received very good storm rainfall with isolated
rainfall events of up to 150mm. The Central and North Burnett, Bundaberg and
Brisbane Valley districts all require good run-off rainfall to fill dams and
run creeks. Outlook for industries is variable due to the erratic rainfall across
the region. South Region: The Miles, Taroom, Roma and Injune districts recorded
well below median rainfall for summer. This month's rain did little to change
conditions in these areas. The excellent falls on the eastern Downs from February
onwards have been positive for production trends. The western half of the region
experienced a drier than average summer and early autumn period, with the result
pasture and cropping production has deteriorated. Rain is required from this
time for the optimum planting of wheat in the west.
LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES:
North Region: Stock condition has remained
good to excellent. Slaughter cattle are in demand all over the state with prices
being extremely good. Store cattle are in demand for both replacement and live
export. Pastures are generally drying off. It has been a good grass growing
season in the Normanton district and reports indicate good bodies of feed in
the Georgetown and Townsville districts. Quality of pasture is good in the Mareeba
district despite low rain. Fires are burning in the Laura/Kowanyama areas. Pasture
growth has ceased in the Bowen district with quality and quantity deteriorating,
while quality is slipping in the Charters Towers area, but the quantity is holding
well. West Region: In the North West, stock are in excellent condition and graziers
are taking advantage of the buoyant prices to reduce stock numbers on their
properties in preparation for the "dry season". Pastures have matured and hayed
off much earlier than normal following the lack of substantial follow-up rainfall
to the early seasonal break of October to January in the Central West. However,
a rainband late in the month delivered some excellent falls in the area from
Aramac to Tambo and this will provide a valuable boost to pastures before winter.
The condition of stock remains excellent and buoyant cattle prices and recent
improvements in sheep values have attributed to increased sales. Reduced rainfall
across the South West has been insufficient to supplement the falls received
in the early part of the season and with the very high temperatures, pastures
have matured and dried off much earlier than normal, particularly in the Adavale,
Quilpie, Cunnamulla, Charleville area. Central Region: Stock are still holding
up well with most being in good or better condition. There is generally a good
body of feed or better throughout the region. Pastures have responded where
rain has fallen, otherwise they have hayed off but are still in good condition.
No real areas of concern have been reported. South East Region: Stock condition
generally varies from average to very good depending on area and rainfall received.
Cattle prices have remained at the best levels ever. There is little to no drought
feeding occurring in the region at present. Very dry conditions during the month
hayed off pastures markedly but recent rainfall has improved the situation.
Generally pasture quantity is good to excellent but varies greatly due to erratic
nature of storm rainfall received during the month. The area north west of Monto
has very short dry pastures. South Region: In general stock maintained satisfactory
body condition in the western areas in spite of limited rain over the last five
months. However, large areas to the west that had limited rain will be looking
to supplementary feed stock through winter. There was significant pasture growth
during spring and early summer. However, pasture quality and quantity has fallen
in recent months because of below average rainfall. The eastern Downs has benefited
from the good rain during February and subsequent months which has resulted
in good body condition and pasture response. Cattle, pigs, wool and lamb markets
have received significant increases to commodity prices over recent times.
CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE
North Region: There have been excellent
seasonal conditions for dry tropical horticulture in the Bowen/Burdekin and
large plantings of all commodities have continued. The early rockmelons and
honeydew melons have been of excellent quality. There have been good growing
conditions in the wet tropics for bananas, pawpaws and other tropical fruit
but evidence of the fungal disease Black Sigatoka was identified in bananas
near Tully. The peanut harvest continued on the Atherton Tablelands and there
have also been good maize crops coming off. Navy beans and tobacco were planted
during April with an increased area dedicated to navy beans as a replacement
and/or supplementary crop for tobacco. Some summer potatoes are in the ground.
Central Region: Variable, isolated rainfall has been reported in the Dawson/Callide
this month. Some winter crop is now being planted where there has been rain,
although the majority will be planted on the next significant rainfall event.
Most of the summer crop has been harvested, although there is still some sorghum
to be harvested within the next month. There have been some reasonable yields
from the mungbean and cotton harvest. South-East Region: Yield potential of
summer crops varies greatly across the region due to the variable storm rainfall
received during the final months of crop growth. In the North Burnett, crops
have done well with sorghum now being harvested. Peanuts are still being harvested
in the Coalstoun Lakes area with good yield prospects. While the month was dry
it has allowed harvesting of peanuts to progress very well with low levels of
aflatoxin present. Cotton in the Byee area is now being picked. In the Gatton
area the autumn planting season is now underway while in the Bundaberg district
the main planting season has now finished. A range of crops such as tomatoes,
zucchinis, squash, capsicums and eggfruit are now being harvested. Rainfall
is needed in all areas to complete the summer growth period of cane and provide
relief to irrigation schedules. South Region: Important planting opportunities
were missed in the eastern Downs because of the continued dry and the estimate
of the area cropped is 30% to 40% of the total. However, the excellent rainfall
towards the end of summer on the eastern Downs saved existing crops and boosted
potential yields. Corn production withstood hot summer conditions but lost some
production due to leaf rust. The western portion of the region received sufficient
rain to plant summer crops over a large area but below average rain since has
reduced production. However, the areas around Dirranbandi and St George are
experiencing good cotton yields. High rainfall in February in the Granite Belt
has caused disease and harvest problems with the grape crop. This year has been
warmer than normal which may cause problems for next season's fruit as in some
cases apples, grapes and stonefruit have not received the required level of
chilling hours to ensure the best quality fruit.
RAINFALL * (figure in brackets indicates
average) North Region: Babinda received 602mm (571), Cairns A/P 179mm (224),
Herberton 69mm (n/a), Malanda 159mm (174), Ingham 201mm (219), Innisfail 362mm
(n/a), Townsville 9mm (61), Tully 641mm (n/a), Bowen 24mm (n/a), Charters Towers
4mm (n/a) and Georgetown 3mm (35). West Region: Birdsville recorded 1mm (12),
Boulia 0.0mm (14), Windorah 0.2mm (22), Cloncurry n/a (19), Mt Isa 1mm (16),
Longreach 8mm (41), Muttaburra 19mm (37), Winton 0.0mm (33), Eromanga n/a (27),
Augathella 13mm (42) and Charleville 2mm (34). Central Region: Clermont recorded
0.4mm (33), Alpha 8mm (27), Springsure 2mm (46), Mackay 171mm (154), Yaamba
21mm (53), Proserpine 70mm (n/a), Biloela 29mm (45), Mt Larcom 11mm (56), Gladstone
5mm (54), and Theodore n/a (49). South-East Region: Eidsvold recorded 5mm (50),
Gayndah 14mm (47), Mundubbera 16mm (42), Esk 34mm (73), Kilkivan 42mm (66),
Kingaroy 24mm (n/a), Murgon 21mm (53), Nanango 43mm (57), Proston 14mm (52),
and Beaudesert 53mm (82). On the coastal fringe Bundaberg received 27mm (70),
Maryborough 43mm (87), Nambour 79mm (153) and Tewantin 125mm (n/a). South Region:
Clifton 27mm (52), Dalby 24mm (n/a), Goondiwindi 28mm (n/a), Inglewood 43mm
(48), Oakey 41mm (47), Pittsworth 41mm (47), Stanthorpe 31mm (58), Toowoomba
A/P 33mm (n/a), Warwick 54mm (n/a), Roma 5mm (n/a), St George A/P 11mm (n/a)
and Taroom 5mm (41).
WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES
North Region: In the Georgetown district,
surface water remains adequate and most rivers and creeks have stopped flowing
or have only minor flows in them. Most rivers are still flowing in the Normanton
area and surface water availability is adequate. Dams were not filled around
the Junevale and Alamaden areas as the rainfall was good for grass but not adequate
for runoff. Both above and below ground water supplies are adequate for the
season ahead in the Bowen district while water availability is mostly adequate
with some evaporation in surface supplies in the Charters Towers area. No water
problems have been reported or are anticipated in the Townsville district. West
Region: Rainfall has been extremely variable across the region and in many cases
below average. Stock numbers have generally been reduced in anticipation of
there being no more significant falls until the end of the year. Small amounts
of rain (less than 25mm) during the winter months could result in major damage
to the standing hayed off pastures. Central Region: Rainfall in April was below
average in most parts of Central Queensland. There were patchy storms with some
high falls around Marlborough and Dysart. The upper Dawson continues to be dry
and stock water is still critically short in some areas, particularly north
of Dingo and Duaringa, the Grevillea Water Board area. There was no runoff during
the month. There were base flow recessions in most areas but some streams have
stopped flowing. The Dawson has stopped except for those reaches where weir
releases are made. South-East Region: There was useful rainfall which filled
dams and ran watercourses in some areas. However, there are many pockets which
missed out on rainfall such as in the Boonah, Monto and Eidsvold areas. Cooler
weather has slowed evaporation rates allowing dams to maintain water levels.
Bore levels in most areas are being maintained. South Region: The Condamine
River receded from the February flows with small freshes holding up the baseflow.
The Balonne River had only minor freshes from March rainfall events and the
Maranoa River fell to a noflow during March and rainfall was not sufficient
to restart flow. The border rivers received more good rain in early February.
Groundwater storage levels in most aquifer systems are declining with the increased
irrigation demand due to continuing dry weather conditions. Levels in most basalt
aquifers across the eastern Downs have stabilised with some falls experienced
in the main water use areas. In the alluvial aquifers associated with the Condamine
River and tributary streams, water levels have depleted. Stock and domestic
supplies remain secure.
Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY
Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454
National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)
 |
The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries. |
|
