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SITUATION AS AT 1 AUGUST 2001
OUTLOOK: For most of eastern Australia there is a reduced
chance of getting the median August-October rainfall this year. The majority
of districts in Queensland have only a 40-50% chance of getting median August-October
rainfall. However, the probabilities decrease to only 20-30% in the north-east
near Charters Towers and Cooktown. Also, the Central Highlands and most coastal
districts between Rockhampton and Cape York have only a 30-40% chance of at
least median August-October rainfall. In the drought regions of the southern
Queensland, rainfall probabilities have not improved significantly. Remember,
a 50% chance of above-median rainfall means there are equal chances of it being
a wetter or drier 3 months based on the phase of the SOI. The 30-50 day oscillation
is next due to have an influence on Queensland's rainfall towards the end of
August. Although strictly speaking it is a tropical phenomenon, it appears to
influence the timing of rainfall events rather than the actual amount of rain.
This forecast system is based on experimental research only. Ocean temperatures
in the equatorial Pacific Ocean are in general presently close to the long-term
average.
Most of the General Circulation Models that
forecast El Nino and La Nina are predicting that we will be in a "neutral" event
in 6 months time, although slight warming will take place. A summary of these
model outputs can be found at: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/ENSO-summary.shtml.
Another good website providing an update of conditions in the equatorial Pacific
Ocean is: http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/toga-tao/el-nino/forecasts.html#enso. Although
we have the necessary preconditions for an El Niņo, it remains to be seen whether
the oceans will warm sufficiently.
STATE OVERVIEW: Many areas in central, south
and south-east regions received rainfall during the month after experiencing
dry and mild winter conditions. However, it was generally too late to allow
winter crop plantings, but crops already in the ground will benefit. There were
reports of frosts in the north and south-east regions. The normal seasonal pattern
has continued with pastures and stock condition experiencing seasonal deterioration.
Stock prices remain high and sheep values are continuing to rise. On 26 July
2001, following recommendations from the Local Drought Committees, the Minister
for Primary Industries and Rural Communities declared the shires of Bendemere
and Bungil and that part of Taroom Shire south and east of the following roads:
Red Range Road from the Chinchilla Shire boundary; south on Nathan Road, east
on Twelve Mile Road, south on the Leichhardt Highway, west on Murray's Road
and stock route to Yeovil, then north west to the Roma Taroom Road, then south
to the Bungil Shire boundary, under State drought processes. On 1 August 2001
the Minister also declared the Tara shire and the remainder of the shire of
Taroom not covered by the 26 July declaration under State drought processes.
The area declared represents 6.13% of the land area of the State. There are
also 196 Individually Droughted Properties (IDPs) in a further 22 shires.
REGIONAL SUMMARIES:
North Region: North region experienced generally
dry conditions for the month of July. These conditions that have caused an increase
in irrigation demand in some areas are also providing an uninterrupted run to
cane harvesting. Declining pasture quality is the norm and there are parts of
the north where pasture is also in short supply. Frost is reported to have affected
tobacco and capsicum crops on the Walsh River, tropical pastures on the Atherton
Tablelands and other susceptible crops at a few locations. Dry weather combined
with dry winds has resulted in a number of grass fires being reported, especially
in the Townsville, Normanton and Georgetown stock districts.
West Region: Generally conditions are average
for this winter period with adequate supplies of bulk pastures. Pasture quality
has continued to deteriorate. Very few frosts have been recorded. A rain band
delivered isolated falls of 25mm and greater from Longreach and south late in
the month with the main recipients being the Tambo, Charleville and Blackall
areas. Benefits expected are herbage growth and a revitalisation of the mulga
and buffell grass.
Central Region:. Rainfall in central and
southern parts of the region occurred towards the end of July but was too late
for winter crop planting. Further rainfall is needed to boost the yield potential
of the small winter crop in the region. Large areas of mungbean and grain sorghum
are expected in spring (if a planting rainfall occurs) and summer due to the
low area of winter crop in the region. Pasture and stock condition continue
their seasonal deterioration with the drier southern areas of the region suffering
more than other parts.
South-East Region: Useful rain fell in most
areas of the region during the month. However, it was generally too late to
plant winter crops but those crops planted will benefit. It is expected that
the winter cropping for the district will be below average. There have been
several severe frosts but apart from these, winter weather has been mild. Stock
condition is average for the winter period.
South Region: There were falls ranging from
15mm to the east and 75mm to the west of the region in July. The rain is too
late for winter crop planting but the replenishment of soil moisture may set
up spring planting. There has been little winter herbage growth but livestock
prices have continued to hold.
LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES:
North Region: Supplies of store and especially
slaughter cattle are declining and in consequence prices are rising on an already
high market. Meatworks are still at full capacity. In the Townsville stock district
the seasonal decline in quantity and quality of pastures continues but some
bulk remains. Stock are in reasonably good condition. Stock condition in the
Charters Towers district ranges from reasonable to fair with wet cows being
the worst affected. Large areas of standing fodder are present. In the Malanda
stock district, cattle condition has started to slip and, as the Herberton area
has experienced at least three frosts, the pasture quality here is declining
rapidly. Pasture quality and quantity are also deteriorating rapidly in the
Mareeba stock district and some frosts have been recorded. Stock condition is
fair throughout the district and there is widespread use of dry season supplements.
Stock condition in the Bowen district ranges from very good (Whitsunday) to
poor, depending on location. Pasture quality is now very low and quantity diminishing
rapidly. A reasonably good standing fodder reserve is present in most areas
of the Normanton and Georgetown stock districts, but the Mitchell grass country
has deteriorated rapidly and stock are starting to decline. However, generally
stock condition remains good for store stock with wet cows the only real problem
at this stage.
West Region: In the north west, the normal
seasonal pattern is occurring with pastures haying off but adequate bulk is
available. The hayed pastures continue to deteriorate and in order to utilise
the bulk and maintain stock condition, supplementation has commenced. Stock
are generally in good to excellent condition however wet breeders are showing
the effects of winter and slipping in condition. Winter conditions have been
very mild with very few frosts in the central west. The abundant hayed pastures
across the Downs country will possibly deteriorate faster after receiving rainfall
of less than 25mm. Stock are generally in good condition and market values have
increased turn-off of cattle. Sheep values continue to rise. A rainfall front
passed through the south west bringing isolated falls during the month but no
significant bulk pasture is expected to be generated from this rain. Generally
stock have slipped in condition (score 2 in many instances). Central Region:
Cattle are generally in good condition for this time of the year with the winter
look being apparent. Supplies of prime condition stock are drying up in the
Biloela/Callide area. Dry cattle are mostly holding their own but cows with
calves and soon-to-calve cows will soon feel the pinch. The dry areas around
Bauhinia and Cracow, west of Springsure and north of Dingo, are the problem
areas. Supplementary feeding is on the increase. There is, or will be, a green
shoot in the rainfall favoured areas but for the most part pasture conditions
are typical for this time of year, with a variable body of dry feed.
South East Region: Stock condition generally
varies from average to very good depending on area and rainfall received and
is typical of an average season. Condition of stock has been maintained due
to the mild winter conditions experienced to date. Dry conditions and some frosts
during the month hayed off pastures markedly. Generally pasture quantity is
good to excellent but varies greatly. Producers are supplementing stock as a
normal winter management practice or feeding to finish off sale stock.
South Region: The condition of stock has
slowly declined as the quality and quantity of summer pasture falls. The cattle,
pig, wool and lamb markets have received significant increases to commodity
prices and there has been considerable movement of stock from properties to
sale and agistment. Supplementary feeding is occurring over wide areas as the
paddock feed diminishes.
CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE
North Region: Apart from some cold days,
July continued the good growing conditions in the Bowen/Burdekin district. However,
there has been little relief from the need to irrigate. The wet tropics saw
relatively dry conditions return, proving favourable for fruit quality in bananas
and pawpaws. Some cold weather with frosts was experienced on the Atherton Tablelands.
Black frosts were reported at Herberton. The maize harvest continued with quite
good quality. Favourably dry weather has helped harvesting and planting of sugar
cane across the north.
Central Region: July was relatively warm
in the Dawson/Callide resulting in crops already planted developing quickly
which will reduce potential yields. Useful rainfall fell late in the month which
helped the few crops that were in the ground, however, much more is needed within
the next month to keep these crops going. The rain has also sparked small areas
of planting, although many have considered it too late and will wait for a spring
or summer planting opportunity. Reasonable rain also fell across the Central
Highlands in the last week of July and zero till farmers in the southern highlands
have benefited greatly, as most were able to plant chickpea and wheat in early
May. While the area of crop is small, the crops that are around will generally
be very profitable, especially chickpeas, as reasonable yields will occur at
a time when prices are at record highs. There are some farmers currently planting
wheat but others are looking to plant spring sunflower, corn, sorghum and mungbeans
as most fallowed paddocks have excellent moisture profiles and the weather has
been mild. However, the risk of late frost for crops planted now is still significant.
South-East Region: Prospects for the winter
cropping season have not been as good as hoped with some areas having poor sub
soil moisture available. Wheat, barley and small areas of chickpeas have been
planted. In the Gatton district average winter conditions have prevailed and
frosts and cold weather have not damaged the usual seasonal crops such as broccoli,
cabbage and cauliflower. Cool conditions in the Bundaberg district have slowed
the growth of crops such as tomatoes which are in high demand. Harvesting of
citrus is continuing in the Gayndah district but a continuing concern for growers
is the lack of irrigation water in the coming cropping season. The sugar cane
harvest has started in all areas with rainfall causing some disruptions.
South Region: All the wheat belt area received
rain this month and this could provide a spinoff of spring plantings of sorghum,
sunflowers and corn if further follow up rain falls during the spring. There
has only been 15% to 20% of available winter cropping area planted over the
region, however there are some good crops in the border rivers area of Waggamba
and Balonne shires. Planting opportunities for winter crops have passed and
there are reports that some crops have failed and were fed off to livestock.
RAINFALL (figure in brackets indicates average)
North Region: Babinda received 34mm (132)
Cairns A/P 8mm (26), Malanda 11mm (44), Ingham 26mm (35), Innisfail 21mm (n/a),
Townsville 9mm (11), Tully 31mm (n/a), Bowen 0.2mm (n/a), Charters Towers 14mm
(n/a) and Georgetown 0.0mm (5). West Region: Birdsville n/a (14), Boulia 2mm
(11), Windorah 4mm (17), Cloncurry n/a (7), Mt Isa 0.2mm (9), Longreach 9mm
(21), Muttaburra 11mm (19), Winton 7mm (17), Eromanga n/a (17), Augathella 50mm
(28) and Charleville 34mm (24). Central Region: Clermont recorded 31mm (23),
Alpha 32mm (25), Springsure 38mm (30), Mackay 10mm (48), Yaamba 7mm (34), Proserpine
6mm (n/a), Biloela A/P 33mm (31), Mt Larcom 39mm (38), Gladstone 17mm (43),
and Theodore 24mm (37). South-East Region: Eidsvold recorded 12mm (38), Gayndah
45mm (39), Mundubbera 33mm (38), Esk 33mm (51), Kilkivan 48mm (49), Kingaroy
39mm (n/a), Murgon 52mm (44), Nanango 37mm (49), Proston 43mm (41), and Beaudesert
18mm (49). On the coastal fringe Bundaberg received 37mm (49), Maryborough 41mm
(59), Nambour 60mm (98) and Tewantin 76mm (n/a). South Region: Clifton 2mm (43),
Dalby 19mm (n/a), Goondiwindi 70mm (n/a), Inglewood 51mm (40), Oakey 20mm (38),
Pittsworth 30mm (47), Stanthorpe 55mm (49), Toowoomba 31mm (n/a), Warwick 26mm
(n/a), Roma 74mm (n/a), St George A/P 66mm (n/a) and Taroom 31mm (35).
WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES
North Region: Water supplies, both surface and artesian are
in reasonable supply but there are some dams in the Almaden area which have
never filled leaving a potential for a late wet to cause shortages. West Region:
Generally on property storages continue to recede. Dams in the Tambo and Winton
areas of the central west are still lacking supplies. Waterholes in water courses
are adequate at this time, and it is anticipated that there should not be a
problem with these stores. Central Region: An upper level system moved through
the Central West region late in the month. There were some good falls in the
western areas and in the upper Nogoa, upper Comet and upper Dawson, the best
totals being around 50mm. Lighter falls were experienced near the coast. There
was not enough rainfall to trigger runoff through the system although some very
insignificant and isolated runs were detected. All streamflows in the Central
West are base flow recessions and many streams have stopped flowing. South-East
Region: Coastal and inland districts that received significant rainfall have
had property dams replenished. Cooler weather has slowed evaporation rates allowing
dams to maintain water levels. Bore levels in most areas are being maintained.
South Region: Rainfall recorded was between 15mm to 75mm with higher falls in
the Maranoa/Balonne districts. There were insignificant runoff events during
June but baseflows were supplemented in some sections by allocation water releases.
Recession from May events was supplemented by a small fresh in mid June in the
Moonie River catchment. This fresh resulted from runoff mostly in the lower
part of the catchment. No significant freshes occurred during June in the Condamine
River and flows receded to no flow at many sites. Regulated sections recorded
flows where allocation water was released from Leslie Dam. There was no flow
recorded in the Balonne River and tributaries except for allocation water released
early in June from Beardmore Dam. Continuing dry conditions have led to an increase
in irrigation demands across the Downs. Water levels in the alluvial aquifers
associated with the Condamine River on the eastern downs remain in a depleted
state as well as declines in the main tributary streams. Aquifers in the consolidated
formations in the basalt and sandstone are continuing to decline.
Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY
Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454
National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)
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The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries. |
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