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page regenerated:
07 Aug 2008

OUTLOOK:
Based on a Consistently Near Zero SOI phase in July/August, the chance of rainfall in the next three months in Queensland being above the long-term September - November median rainfall is around 50% across much of Queensland. However, parts of the Croydon, Mareeba, Etheridge, Dalrymple, Bowen, Belyando, Nebo, Peak Downs and Emerald shires all have only a 30-40% probability of reaching the long term median September to November rainfall. In Queensland, September is normally one of the driest months of the year in terms of absolute rainfall. The 30-50 day oscillation is next due to have an influence on Queensland's rainfall towards the end of September or start of October. Although strictly speaking it is a tropical phenomenon, it appears to influence the timing of rainfall events rather than the actual amount of rain. This forecast system is based on experimental research only. Ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean are in general presently close to the long-term average. The rapid warming of Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the equatorial Pacific Ocean over the past 6 months has slowed, and SSTs in these key regions are mainly close to average. However, there is still potential for change in the Pacific, although the likelihood of an El Niņo developing decreases as the year progresses. It is important to remember that there can be low probabilities of high rainfall events without the presence of an El Niņo. Currently most of the prediction models that are used to predict these SSTs are predicting that we will be in a "neutral" event with some warming trends in six months time. A summary of the model outputs can be found at http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/ENSO-summary.shtml

STATE OVERVIEW: The normal seasonal pattern has continued for most of Queensland with pastures and stock condition experiencing seasonal deterioration. Stock prices remain high and sheep values are continuing to rise. Twenty four shires and one part shire are currently drought declared by the Queensland Government. The area declared represents 6.13% of the land area of the State. There are also 213 Individually Droughted Properties (IDPs) in a further 22 shires. On 22 August 2001 the Federal Minister for Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry, the Hon Warren Truss MP accepted the advice of the National Rural Advisory Committee that Exceptional Circumstances assistance be provided to the eastern Darling Downs shires of Chinchilla, Wambo, Jondaryan, Toowoomba, Pittsworth, Millmerran, Cambooya, Clifton, Warwick, Rosalie shire west of the Great Dividing Range and portions of Tara and Murilla Shires east of 150oE longitude. Exceptional Circumstances assistance is available in the form of family welfare assistance through the Exceptional Circumstances Relief Payment, Health Care Card and Youth Allowance, and business assistance is available through a fifty percent interest subsidy to farm businesses.

REGIONAL SUMMARIES:

North Region: While there remains reasonable quantities of bulk pasture available for livestock, the quality has declined. While dry livestock are able to maintain condition, cows with calves at foot are losing condition. Supplementary feeding is being conducted. There is a possibility that export sheds may have to close if the quality of stock deteriorates. West Region: The normal seasonal pattern is occurring with no significant rainfall being recorded for the month. Although there are generally adequate supplies of bulk pastures, conditions have continued to deteriorate and late frosts have increased the deterioration rate of available pastures. The prospects of receiving beneficial rains during the next two months are very low, but it should be recognised that these months are normally the driest for the region. Central Region:. Rainfall was mostly below average for central Queensland, although a fall of 125 mm was received on 1 September north of Mackay. Pasture and stock conditions are following normal seasonal deterioration, although more pronounced to the south. Harvesting of the wheat crop has commenced in the Dawson/Callide with best yields on paddocks that were zero tilled and thus had a full moisture profile. South-East Region: Rainfall was significantly below average for all areas during the month. It is expected that the winter cropping for the region will be below average and cane harvest tonnages are also expected to be down. Stock condition is average for the winter period. South Region: Seasonal conditions have continued to deteriorate over much of the south region. 25 mm was received at Goondiwindi with good yields of crop expected in that area. The Darling Downs has continued to miss out on rain, and supplementary feeding has occurred over wide areas of the south region.

LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES:

North Region: Livestock are in reasonable condition except for cows with calves. Early weaning may be necessary should dry conditions extend into late spring/summer. Bulk quantities of pasture are available, although the quality of this pasture is low. The pasture bulk is leading to problems with fires as temperatures increase. Supplementary feeding has commenced, although supply is constrained. West Region: Pastures have hayed off with adequate bulk available in the North West. To maintain stock condition and to utilise this bulk, supplementation continues. Stock are generally in good condition, however, wet breeders are showing the effects of the deteriorating conditions. In the Central West late frosts during the month have impacted on the deteriorating pastures. This is particularly evident in the southern portion of the Blackall shire. Dry stock tend to be holding condition and the rise in market values has resulted in increased turn-off of cattle. Both Longreach and Blackall saleyards have continued to yard significantly high numbers of cattle. The increase in sheep values has allowed producers to capitalise on the market. The impact of not receiving any or no beneficial rains during the early part of the year continues to affect the Adavale, Quilpie, Cunnamulla, Charleville quadrant. Stock continues to slip in condition - score 2 in many instances. Central Region: The condition of stock is becoming varied and is related to the deterioration of pasture quality in the main. The best of the cattle are in normal to good condition for this time of the year. Cows with calves are most affected. Pasture condition varies from extremely dry and denuded in some paddocks to a good body of dry feed. Generally the quality of the pasture is such that supplementary feeding is necessary to maintain body condition in stock. South East Region: In the Boonah and Beaudesert areas, stock condition on the whole is very good and the Ipswich and Esk areas have stock in good to very good condition. Cattle range from poor to better than average in the Gympie district. Generally Wondai shire stock are holding, North Burnett stock are in fair to good condition with breeders slipping and Bundaberg stock range from fair to average condition. Cattle prices have remained very high. Dry conditions and frosts during the month have caused deteriorating and diminishing pasture quantity and quality. Pastures in the Beaudesert and Boonah districts are generally sufficient if early storms are received in October but there are areas where drier conditions or overstocking have caused complete loss of pasture. In the Gympie district, quality of pasture is poor with quantity ranging from totally denuded to medium cover. Native pastures in the Bundaberg district are very dry with little protein while sown pastures are haying off but still have some nutritive value. South Region: The condition of stock has declined as the quantity and quality of pasture has declined as a result of insufficient rain to promote winter herbage. There has been considerable movement of stock to sale or agistment due in part to limited pasture and future rainfall expectations. Supplementary feeding is ongoing.

CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE

North Region: In the Burdekin/Bowen district, the continuing dry conditions and relatively mild winter have allowed for excess vegetable production which has kept prices depressed. Some cooler weather in recent weeks has slowed production and allowed an increase in prices, but this may be short lived as the warm spring months approach. Some reports have been made of growers in fringe areas starting to have a drop-off of irrigation water supplies but "swapping" land in areas of better supply has ensured their continuity of production. The high vegetable supplies and low market returns are keeping our Financial Counsellor busy. The Tablelands are looking very dry/browned off. Although crops are growing well with no major problems. The potato harvest has started with reasonable prices and good quality. A lot of burning off prior to ground preparation for summer crops. The cane harvest has been able to proceed well in the dry conditions. Central Region: There were a few light frosts over the last month that did little damage as crop area this year has been reduced due to dry conditions. Those crops that were planted have done reasonably well given the dry season. Crops that were planted tended to be on a full moisture profile, typically zero till. With the long fallow as a result of reduced winter crop planting, the first rain will see extensive areas of sorghum and mung bean planted. South-East Region: Prospects for winter cropping have been disappointing with a reduced area planted to wheat. Small areas of chickpeas have been planted but have suffered from the lack of rainfall. Average winter conditions have prevailed in the Gatton district and frosts and cold weather have not damaged the usual seasonal crops such as broccoli, cabbage and cauliflower. Spring potatoes have been planted and pumpkins and the full range of cucurbits are now being planted. Rain is needed to reduce the heavy reliance on irrigation supplies. Onions are now being harvested with prices being reasonable. Cool conditions are slowing the growth of crops such as tomatoes, which are in high demand, in the Bundaberg district. Harvesting of citrus is continuing in the Gayndah district. Cane harvesting has started in all areas with rainfall causing some disruptions. Generally CCS levels have been higher but yields lower due to the dry conditions and some orange rust. South Region: The Goondiwindi district has received useful rain and the wheat crop is now in head. Expectations are for 2 to 2.5 t/ha yields. Unfortunately, the absence of rain suitable for the winter crop has meant that less than twenty percent of the available winter crop area has been planted on the Darling Downs. There is some concern that the warm winter could have an impact on the quality of fruit on horticultural properties.

RAINFALL (figure in brackets indicates average)

North Region: Babinda received 53mm (103) Cairns A/P 6mm (22), Malanda 22mm (39), Ingham 1mm (37), Innisfail 48mm (n/a), Townsville 0.2mm (14), Tully 55mm (n/a), Bowen 2mm (n/a), Charters Towers 0.0mm (n/a) and Georgetown 0.0mm (3). West Region: Birdsville 0.0mm (n/a), Boulia 0.0mm (8), Windorah 0.0mm (9), Cloncurry n/a (4), Mt Isa 0.0mm (5), Longreach 0.0mm (14), Muttaburra n/a (13), Winton 0.0mm (6), Eromanga n/a (10), Augathella n/a (23) and Charleville 0.6mm (22). Central Region: Clermont recorded 0.8mm (21), Alpha n/a (22), Springsure 0.0mm (26), Mackay 2mm (29), Yaamba n/a (26), Proserpine 18mm (n/a), Biloela A/P 5mm (27), Mt Larcom 2mm (36), Gladstone 0.4mm (32), and Theodore n/a (31). South-East Region: Eidsvold recorded 1mm (34), Gayndah 2mm (36), Mundubbera 2mm (34), Esk 10mm (35), Kilkivan 9mm (39), Kingaroy 8mm (n/a), Murgon 7mm (35), Nanango 8mm (40), Proston 5mm (35), and Beaudesert 10mm (43). On the coastal fringe Bundaberg received 5mm (38), Maryborough 8mm (45), Nambour 10mm (57) and Tewantin 19mm (n/a). South Region: Clifton 11mm (38), Dalby 6mm (n/a), Goondiwindi 12mm (n/a), Inglewood 26mm (37), Oakey 7mm (30), Pittsworth 9mm (40), Stanthorpe 29mm (48), Toowoomba 6mm (n/a), Warwick 21mm (n/a), Roma 5mm (n/a), St George A/P 3mm (n/a) and Taroom 3mm (31).

WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES

North Region: Adequate supplies of water are available, although starting to decline. West Region: Generally, on property storages continue to recede. Dams in the Tambo and Winton areas of the central west are still lacking supplies. Waterholes in water courses are adequate at this time and it is anticipated that there should not be a problem with these stores. Central Region: Any rainfall has been too low to trigger runoff through the stream system. Water is becoming a problem for a number of properties in the Cracow, Bauhinia and Springsure areas. South-East Region: In the Beaudesert district a large number of dams in scrub country are dry, with dam water being adequate in most other areas. The Albert River, Christmas Creek and Running Creek have irrigation restrictions which will limit the amount of feed available for dairy farms. In the Boonah area, water is a problem with most farm dams less than half their capacity. Moogerah Dam is at low levels and in the western Wondai Shire area surface water is low to average for this time of year. Farm dams are low in the Gympie district. South Region: Dry conditions has led to an increase in irrigation demands across the Downs. Hopwever, water levels in alluvial aquifers continue to remain in a depleted state. There was limited flow in streams, although this was mainly the result of the release of water allocations from Leslie and Beardmore Dams rather than runoff.

Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY

Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454

National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)

The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries.