| SITUATION AS AT 31 DECEMBER 2001
OUTLOOK:
The monthly value of the Southern Oscillation
Index (SOI) has fallen from +8.9 at the end of November to -11.19 at the end
of December. Based on this shift in the monthly value of the SOI over November/December,
the SOI is now in a 'Rapidly Falling' phase. This shift in value continues the
roller coaster ride the SOI has been on for most of 2001. Despite the fall in
the monthly SOI value, rainfall probabilities for the rest of the state remain
relatively high for the time being, especially across western and central Queensland.
Regions of the state that have relatively high probabilities of 60% to 90% of
getting above median rainfall for January to March include a strip running from
Cairns, Douglas and Cook shires through to Carpentaria shire and from Bourke
and the western half of Dalrymple shires through to the Barcoo, Quilpie and
Bulloo shires in the south west of the state. Other areas of relatively high
rainfall probabilities also exist in the Paroo, Murweh, Mitchell, Balonne, Waroo,
Bungil and Yuleba shires. An increase in rainfall probabilities to 60-70% in
the Broadsound and eastern half of the Belyando shires indicate the potential
for some relief rain for these dry areas. The down side of this rapid drop in
monthly SOI values in that rainfall probabilities for the January to March period
have fallen across south east Queensland. This area includes the eastern Darling
Downs and Burnett regions. Given this drop in the value of the SOI and the potential
development of an El Niņo sometime around Autumn 2002 it is recommended that
interested parties keep a track of the sea surface temperature patterns and
any shifts in the monthly value of the SOI over the next few months. The 30
day average of the SOI as at 4 January 2002 is -9.8.
STATE OVERVIEW:
A feature of December was the heat, which
reached record levels in some areas, particularly the north west of the State.
Rainfall was again scattered and limited mainly to storms. All regions reported
some storm activity and those lucky enough to be under one received some welcome
relief from the dry conditions. However, it should be noted that good rainfall
has been recorded in many areas from 1 January and this will be highlighted
in next month's report. The cattle market remains strong particularly for stores
as a shortage of numbers and a high demand forces prices up. Good rain on the
Darling Downs has enable producers that offloaded cattle during the dry to restock.
The sugar crush finished this month with the Rocky Point mill finishing crushing
on 18 December. The total cane crush for Queensland was 29 845 680 tonnes with
an average CCS of 14.33. As at 31 December 2001 there are 24 shires and 1 part
shire drought declared under state drought processes. The area declared represents
6.13% of the land area of the state. There are also 318 Individually Drought
Declared Properties (IDPs) in a further 31 shires.
REGIONAL SUMMARIES:
North Region:
December produced storm rain throughout
all districts but as is the nature of this rainfall event falls were patchy
in intensity and quantity. Stock condition varies with where the rain fell and
hot windy days have impacted on any pasture response. West Region: Heatwave
conditions during the last weeks of December have severely burnt off a lot of
the pasture response from recent rains. The southern shires of Murweh, Paroo,
Bulloo and Quilpie did not receive any rainfall of note this month and stock
and pasture continue to deteriorate in these areas.
Central Region:
The dry conditions eased a little this
month with storm rains falling over most districts and covering some of the
areas that have missed out on earlier falls. Useful falls up to 200mm were recorded
in some places. Stock have responded well especially in those areas that received
rain in November with follow up this month. Farmers on the Central Highlands
are still waiting significant planting rains and the potential for a large summer
crop plant remains for the present, but the planting window is getting smaller.
South-East Region:
Large areas of crop have been planted with
the good rainfall in November however very hot heatwave conditions have markedly
affected crops and pastures in the region. Generally most areas have had average
rain this month but much has been erratic and from storms. Good general rain
across the region is required to improve moisture stressed crops and pastures.
South Region:
Heatwave conditions were experienced over
the Christmas period and crops will require good rain in January to maintain
yields. Pasture growth was limited during the intensely hot, dry period although
stock are mainly in a satisfactory condition.
LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES:
North Region:
In the Normanton and Peninsula districts
pasture has responded to rain and stock are responding well. Scattered storms
in the Charters Towers stock district offered some relief but rainfall was patchy
overall. Supplementary feeding of fortified protein/urea based supplements continues
throughout the district. In the Bowen stock district warm hot conditions were
prevalent during the month which quickly nullified the benefits of any storms
that were received.
West Region:
In the north west districts conditions
can be described as average with most areas receiving some rainfall during the
month. High temperatures have impacted on pasture response and supplementary
feeding is continuing. Lines of cattle most affected by the dry conditions are
aged wet breeders and young stock. Rainfall in the central west districts, although
patchy, provided some relief this month and pasture response has been excellent.
However as with other areas the heat has had a large impact on pasture condition.
In the south west pasture and stock continue to deteriorate and rain has been
variable with many falls insufficient to promote any pasture response. The area
bounded by Adavale, Quilpie, Cunnamulla and Charleville continues to experience
very dry conditions.
Central Region:
Rain has continued to fall this month in
the Banana and Theodore stock districts but falls have still been patchy. Areas
around Wowan and the Calliope Range have yet to receive adequate rain and pasture
is poor. In most other areas pasture has responded well and stock are gaining
condition but the hot conditions are impacting on this response. In the Springsure,
Emerald and Clermont stock districts rainfall has been confined to storms again
this month. In the coastal areas rain has provided some relief but feeding of
stock is still occurring in the drier areas of Duaringa Shire.
South East Region:
In all areas stock are responding to the
green feed that is now available and are starting to gain weight. Breeders have
stabilised and are now able to maintain growth of young calves. Drought feeding
has ceased in most areas although normal seasonal supplementation continues.
Pasture has responded well to recent rain but hot conditions are causing pasture
quantity and quality to diminish quickly.
South Region:
In the Crows Nest, Oakey and Dalby stock
districts the pasture growth is excellent following good rain over the last
three months. Stock condition is reflecting the pasture response and all lines
are improving in condition. In the Goondiwindi stock district the river country
is in excellent condition but northern parts have received little rain and pasture
is poor. Pasture quality and quantity continued to deteriorate in the Mitchell
stock district with some patchy rain recorded this month.
CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE
North Region:
In the dry tropics horticulture areas of
Bowen and Burdekin cropping land is fallow with cover crops planted. On the
Atherton Tablelands planting of peanuts and maize is being carried out.
Central Region:
In the Dawson Callide valleys most of the
sorghum and mungbean crops have now been planted, although there are still areas
that will need another 50-75 mm to see planting commence. Crops planted on earlier
rain are now flowering with hot weather causing heat stress in the middle of
the day. This may impact on the yields of crops planted on less than a full
moisture profile or have received little in crop rain. Most crops will need
more rain in the next month as many will be filling grain at this time. This
month was extremely hot on the Central Highlands with little rain. The small
amount of young grain sorghum that has been planted struggled to cope with temperatures
but crops still have a reasonable yield potential if rain is received soon.
There is still potential for a very large summer crop planting on the highlands.
The sorghum planting window closes at the end on January, with sunflower and
corn better suited to February plantings. In the Mackay area the young sugar
cane crop is looking promising and with good follow up rain should be greater
than the 2001 crop.
South-East Region:
Large areas have been planted to soybeans,
sorghum, corn and millet in the Burnett. The outlook has been very good with
adequate subsoil moisture available however the hot conditions are impacting
on crops that have received little rain since planting. Many crops will require
good rain shortly to ensure no long term yield losses occur due to the hot dry
conditions. In the Gatton district there has been reasonable rain however the
hot dry conditions has lead to heavy demands on irrigation. Potatoes, onions,
beetroot and carrots are being harvested and sweet corn has been planted. In
the Bundaberg district rockmelons, pumpkins and watermelons are now in season.
A range of crops such as tomatoes, zucchinis, squash, capsicums and eggfruit
are now being harvested. Harvesting of macadamias and avocado has finished.
Rain in the Caboolture and Nambour area has replenished most farm irrigation
dams after a dry spell.
South Region:
Prospects for summer crop improved with
widespread rain recorded up to the Christmas period. Heatwave conditions throughout
the region could adversely affect yield potential of planted crops and rain
in January will be required to improve the situation. Some crops planted on
a low moisture profile have failed due to the intensely hot conditions. On the
eastern Darling Downs large falls of rain early in the season resulted in crops
laying down a shallow root system. This has lead to heat stress during the hot
conditions, as plants are unable to access moisture sufficiently. Cotton on
the Downs has struggled because of the cool, wet conditions at planting, which
has resulted in root diseases in some crops.
RAINFALL (figure in brackets indicates
average)
North Region:
Babinda received 72mm (331) Cairns A/P
54mm (190), Malanda 94mm (146), Ingham 75mm (217), Innisfail 96mm (n/a), Townsville
1mm (148), Tully 69mm (n/a), Bowen 88mm (n/a), Charters Towers 37mm (n/a), Georgetown
101mm (112) and Normanton A/P 120mm (n/a).
West Region:
Birdsville A/P 6mm (n/a), Boulia 16mm (28),
Windorah 7mm (27), Cloncurry 26mm (58), Mt Isa 47mm (62), Longreach 50mm (51),
Muttaburra 44mm (59), Winton 60mm (51), Eromanga 4mm (26), Augathella 23mm (65)
and Charleville 78mm (53).
Central Region:
Clermont recorded 34mm (101), Alpha 51mm
(85), Springsure 63mm (107), Mackay 108mm (197), Yaamba 106mm (131), Proserpine
A/P 72mm (n/a), Biloela A/P 96mm (102), Mt Larcom 78mm (150), Gladstone 87mm
(140), and Theodore 93mm (102).
South-East Region:
Eidsvold recorded 111mm (86), Gayndah 68mm
(112), Mundubbera 56mm (100), Esk 106mm (111), Kilkivan 51mm (124), Kingaroy
99mm (n/a), Murgon 29mm (109), Nanango 93mm (108), Proston 42mm (108), and Beaudesert
38mm (128). On the coastal fringe Bundaberg received 33mm (138), Maryborough
68mm (134), Nambour 96mm (180) and Tewantin 78mm (n/a).
South Region:
Clifton 96mm (109), Dalby 81mm (n/a), Goondiwindi
44mm (n/a), Inglewood 9mm (86), Oakey 90mm (93), Pittsworth 153mm (104), Stanthorpe
69mm (93), Toowoomba 101mm (n/a), Warwick 37mm (n/a), Roma 76mm (n/a), Miles
38mm (102), St George A/P 30mm (n/a) and Taroom 91mm (104).
WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES
North Region:
Surface water is low in the Charters Towers,
Townsville and Bowen area with little rain this month to replenish supplies.
In all other areas supplies are generally adequate.
West Region:
Generally on property storages continue
to recede. Dams in the Tambo and Winton areas of the central west are still
lacking in supplies. Many of the rivers and streams in the central and north
parts of the region have run. As a result waterholes in most watercourses are
full at this time. The Barcoo, Thompson, Diamantina, Hamilton and Georgina Rivers
have all recorded flows within the riverbanks.
Central Region:
Water supplies are adequate in the short
term, but there still has not been enough heavy rain to produce the general
run-off to replenish all supplies.
South-East Region:
Major irrigation dams in the North Burnett
are still at low levels as are dams in the Gatton/Laidley area and the Moogerah
Dam at Boonah.
South Region:
Surface water is short in the Inglewood
traprock area and around Moonie. There have also been reports of surface water
shortages in the Mitchell area. In most other areas water supply is generally
adequate.
Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY
Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454
National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)
 |
The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries. |
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