| SITUATION AS AT 28 FEBRUARY 2001
Based on the latest values and trends of the Southern
Oscillation Index (SOI), the probabilities of receiving above-median rainfall
over the total March-May period are little different from the 'normal' for this
time of year in most of the eastern states of Australia. However, exceptions
include the south-east coast which has reasonably high probabilities (60%-70%)
of receiving higher than normal rainfall. The probabilities along the central
coast have decreased since last month's outlook to mostly 50%.
Note that a 70% probability of receiving the long term
median for a location also means there is a 30% probability of not receiving
the median for that location. These probability values are simply statements
of fact referring to the history of rainfall events for particular locations
over the past 100 years. The present pattern of ocean temperatures in key regions
of the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean are still cooler than average, especially
sub surface. Ocean surface temperatures to the north of Australia were warmer
than the long term average during January.
The probabilities of obtaining median pasture growth or
better during the February/March/April period are 'above average' over most
of Queensland. However, exceptions include the southeast of the state where
probabilities are mainly between 10% and 20%, and coastal districts north of
Mackay. STATE OVERVIEW
There has been cyclonic activity in the north bringing
wet conditions but generally rainfall has been below average in West and Central
Region. Good rain fell in the south and south east at the beginning of the month
which has benefited crops and pastures and caused some stream flows and flows
into dams. Conditions across North, West and Central regions are excellent for
the grazing industry and prices across the state are buoyant. With large areas
planted to summer crop in Central Queensland, the winter crop area is likely
to be reduced in size. The nineteen south eastern shires of Kingaroy, Nanango,
Wondai. Murgon, Eidsvold, Monto, Gayndah, Mundubbera, Chinchilla, Wambo, Pittsworth,
Clifton, Jondaryan, Rosalie, Cambooya, Toowoomba, Warwick, Stanthorpe and Millmerran
and the western part of Kilkivan Shire west of the Wide Bay Creek remain drought
declared under State drought processes. There are also 302 Individually Droughted
Properties (IDPs) in a further 24 shires.
REGIONAL SUMMARIES
North Region: A wet month in most districts on the back
of cyclonic activity in the far north and coastal showers have continued the
excellent season for the grazing industry, except for access disruptions in
some areas. However, the wet month with little sunshine was not helpful for
the Tableland's dairy industry because the ground is saturated and cattle are
damaging feed by walking and foraging. Sugar cane continues to bear the effects
of the run of wet years.
West Region: Scattered showers and storms have been the
main provider of this month's rain which has generally been well below the monthly
average in most recording centres. The exception is a strip of country on the
eastern fringe from north of Aramac to about Augathella which enjoyed good rain
at the beginning of February. However, the region continues to enjoy above average
conditions. Flood levels have receded in all river systems flowing into the
interior. The Gregory/Nicholson systems will experience continued flooding from
the two cyclones which moved west out of the gulf during the second half of
February.
Central Region:. Rainfall for February was below average
across Central Queensland. Livestock condition is still good although pastures
have hayed off with the hot conditions and low rainfall but in general are still
adequate in quality and quantity. The cropping outlook remains positive across
most of the region, except for areas in the southern Callide Valley, where sorghum
crops are struggling and need rain within the next fortnight. However, the mungbean
crops have benefited from dry conditions as harvesting approaches. With the
large areas planted to summer crop across the region, the winter crop area is
likely to be reduced in size.
South-East Region: Significant rainfall at the beginning
of the month caused major stream flows in southern parts of the region and inflows
into dams. Very little run off occurred in the northern parts of the region.
Very hot conditions since the rain have dried off pasture and crops significantly.
Good rainfall is required to ensure a successful finish to the summer cropping
season.
South Region: There was excellent rain early in the month
on the eastern and central Downs but it gradually declined in the western parts
with only 25mm to 50mm recorded. Crops and pastures in the eastern parts have
benefited but the western part has experienced a drier than average summer.
However, this comes after substantial falls during the October/November period.
LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES:
North Region: Stock condition and pasture quality and
quantity have generally been excellent throughout the region. Cattle are in
demand with good prices for both slaughter and live export. Dairy cattle on
the Tableland are maintaining weight but wet, boggy conditions have restricted
local cattle movements to local sales which are currently offering good firm
prices.
West Region: In the North West conditions are generally
excellent and stock are continuing to do well. The bulk in the pastures is still
excellent and stock are continuing to do very well in the Central West. Longreach
cattle sales have been recording record prices, with weight and condition of
stock presented exceptional. In the districts east of Cunnamulla there have
been reports of isolated fires resulting from dry strikes and rainfall has been
scattered with the showers and storms being very narrow and patchy. However,
stock are holding their condition. Temperatures in excess of 40c have caused
maturing and burning off of pastures throughout the region.
Central Region: Stock are reported to be in good to excellent
condition. There was some excellent rain in the region early in the month, however,
this was not general and some places missed out. Pastures which received rain
responded well but have since hayed off to a degree. Generally there is a body
of good feed.
South East Region: Stock condition in the region varies
from average to very good depending on the area and rainfall received. Properties
that reduced numbers early in the season are now doing quite well. There has
been little movement of stock and cattle prices have remained at the best levels
ever. Very hot conditions in all areas have affected pasture quality and growth.
Generally pasture quantity is good but more rain is needed in most areas.
South Region: Stock maintained average to better body
weight in the western parts of the region over the summer. The eastern Downs
has benefited from the good rain during February which has resulted in improved
body condition. Cattle, pigs, wool and the lamb markets have received significant
increases to commodity prices over recent times. There was significant pasture
growth to the west during Spring and early summer and the eastern portion of
the region, which had a short pasture supply until the rain in early February,
is responding well.
CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE
North Region: Good growing conditions for pawpaws, bananas
and tropical tree fruits on the wet tropical coast were evident for the month
of February. Wet, overcast conditions were dominant on the Atherton Tablelands
where peanuts and maize are growing. These conditions favoured a rise in disease
in peanuts and were also unfavourable for harvesting of seed from the pasture
species which had matured. Light sugar cane crops are being reported from the
Herbert and other coastal districts from the impact of the sequence of wet years
which has also carried forward a range of problems like weeds, rust and rats
in some areas.
Central Region: There has been variable rainfall in the
Dawson/Callide area. The mungbean crop has benefited from dry conditions as
harvesting approaches. The district cotton crop has progressed well although
some dryland crops could do with more rain. Small areas of early planted sorghum
are being harvested, with the main crop now in the flowering or grain fill stages.
February has been a dry month for the Central Highlands. The early planted sorghum
crops have high potential yields but later planted crops need rain to ensure
an average yield. Some sunflowers have been planted with most growers opting
for the monounsatured varieties due to higher prices being paid. There have
been concerns with locusts and Heliothis. The area of winter crop will be reduced
this year due to the large summer crop planting, especially if the next few
months are dry.
South-East Region: The rain at the beginning of February
was very welcome for all crops but further rain is needed to allow summer crops
to reach full yield potential. Peanuts, corn, sorghum, millet and soybeans and
an increased area of navy beans and mungbeans have been planted. Lack of early
planting rain caused many who were planning to plant cotton to look at other
options but there have been growers going into areas of dryland cotton this
year for the first time. Sweet corn is the main crop being grown in the Gatton
area with small areas of capsicums, tomatoes, melons and pumpkins planted. In
the Bundaberg district, rockmelons, pumpkins and watermelons are now planted
with harvest continuing for a range of crops such as tomatoes, zucchinis, squash,
capsicums and eggfruit. There has been a large mango crop in the Nambour/Caboolture
district. The avocado crop has been average with most of the harvesting finished.
The lychee season has also finished. Significant rainfall is needed in all cane
areas to complete the summer growth period and provide relief to irrigation
schedules.
South Region: The western portion of the region received
sufficient rain to plant summer crops over a large area and there has been sufficient
rain to double crop in some parts. Sorghum and mung beans were planted extensively.
Planting opportunities were missed in the eastern Darling Downs because of the
continued dry. However, areas that were able to plant received a boost to the
production potential because of recent rain. The western areas of Dirranbandi
and St George are experiencing good cotton production with harvest to commence
over the next month. Most horticultural production areas were within drought
declared shires. The demand for water to supply fruit trees and vegetables increased
due to warmer weather. Apple and grape harvesting continued this month.
RAINFALL * (figure in brackets indicates average) North
Region: Babinda received 1128mm (738), Cairns A/P 810mm (422), Herberton 415mm
(n/a), Malanda 595mm (286), Ingham 599mm (410), Innisfail 743mm (n/a), Townsville
235mm (232), Tully 1004mm (n/a), Bowen 158mm (n/a), Charters Towers 56mm (n/a)
and Georgetown 180mm (208).
West Region: Birdsville recorded 33mm (21), Boulia 9mm
(41), Windorah 49mm (45), Cloncurry 53mm (97), Mt Isa 171mm (86), Longreach
27mm (69), Muttaburra 27mm (71), Winton 26mm (80), Eromanga 7mm (33), Augathella
32mm (64) and Charleville 35mm (55).
Central Region: Clermont recorded 51mm (104), Alpha 34mm
(81), Springsure 84mm (113), Mackay 145mm (302), Yaamba 158mm (127), Proserpine
342mm (n/a), Biloela 51mm (83), Mt Larcom 75mm (129), Gladstone 54mm (140),
and Theodore 87mm (90).
South-East Region: Eidsvold recorded 68mm (81), Gayndah
107mm (87), Mundubbera 66mm (74), Esk 255mm (100), Kilkivan 163mm (94), Kingaroy
213mm (n/a), Murgon 115mm (92), Nanango 188mm (86), Proston 97mm (77), and Beaudesert
200mm (109). On the coastal fringe Bundaberg received 65mm (148), Maryborough
336mm (163), Nambour 227mm (224) and Tewantin 183mm (n/a).
South Region: Clifton 126mm (87), Dalby 141mm (n/a), Goondiwindi
87mm (n/a), Inglewood 75mm (68), Oakey 129mm (84), Pittsworth 96mm (76), Stanthorpe
161mm (82), Toowoomba 264mm (n/a), Warwick 84mm (n/a), Roma 34mm (n/a), St George
54mm (n/a) and Taroom 14mm (76).
WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES
North Region: February was a very wet month over most
of the Peninsula, Tablelands, northern Burke Shire and the wet tropical coast
and hinterland. Average rainfall predominated elsewhere.
West Region: Rainfall has been below monthly average in
most areas. The region south of Charleville is considered to have the least
grass cover and reports have indicated some surface water problems. No surface
water problems have been reported from the northern or central areas of the
region, however a top up of water storages would add to the good season and
secure a good winter.
Central Region: Rainfall in February was below average.
The only places to record good rainfall were Mackay, parts of the upper Isaac
near the coastal ranges, Mt Morgan, upper Comet and parts of the Fairbairn Dam
catchment. The highest streamflow originated in the Isaac River with moderate
flows coming from the Mackenzie River. Lower flows were recorded in the Comet
River and there was water harvesting in these areas early in the month. Overall,
runoff has been below average. Stock water is still critically short in the
area north of Dingo and Duaringa.
South-East Region: In many areas there were significant
rainfalls that filled dams and ran water courses. However, some areas have missed
out and still require run-off rainfall.
South Region: The Condamine River ceased flowing along
much of its length due to lack of any worthwhile rain. Reasonable base flows
continue in the Macintyre River below Goondiwindi whilst the Severn and Dumaresq
Rivers remain in no flow mode. The Weir and Moonie Rivers receded from low flow
to no flow by the end of January. However, extensive rain on the eastern Darling
Downs in February activated flows in the eastern stream systems. There was an
increased demand for irrigation supplies.
Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY
Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454
National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)
 |
The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries. |
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