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07 Aug 2008

OUTLOOK

Based on the latest values and trends of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), the probabilities of receiving above median rainfall over the total February/April period are little different from the 'normal' for this time of year in most of the eastern States of Australia. Exceptions are most coastal districts of Queensland, western Cape York Peninsula, parts of far central-western Queensland and the southern Maranoa, much of coastal NSW, the south-western corner of NSW and far eastern Tasmania where probabilities are 60-70%. Note that a 70% probability of receiving the long term median for a location also means there is a 30% probability of not receiving the median for that location. These probability values are simply statements of fact referring to the history of rainfall events for particular locations over the past 100 years.

The outlook for winter is dependent on whether or not an El Niño develops. The present pattern of ocean temperatures in key regions of the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean resembles a La Niña pattern. Temperatures of waters off the northern Australian coast are below average. However to the north of Australia in waters surrounding Indonesia, sea surface temperatures (SST) are much warmer than average. Some general circulation models are suggesting that there is a potential for warming in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean over the next 6-9 months. Close monitoring of SST patterns over the next six months is suggested.

The probabilities of obtaining median pasture growth or better during the December/January/February period are 'above-average' over most of Queensland. However there are regions in the south east where the probabilities are only 10% to 30% due to poor soil moisture conditions.

STATE OVERVIEW

Generally there was below average rainfall across the State for the month of January and extreme temperatures and hot conditions in many areas dried off pastures. However, it should be noted that good rainfall has been recorded in many areas as from 1 February and this will be highlighted in next month's report. Condition of stock is good and the cropping outlook is generally good, especially in Central Queensland. Rivers in West Region have been in flood and hailstorms affected properties near Beaudesert. The nineteen south eastern shires of Kingaroy, Nanango, Wondai, Murgon, Eidsvold, Monto, Gayndah, Mundubbera, Chinchilla, Wambo, Pittsworth, Clifton, Jondaryan, Rosalie, Cambooya, Toowoomba, Warwick, Stanthorpe and Millmerran and the western part of Kilkivan Shire west of the Wide Bay Creek remain drought declared under State drought processes. There are also 294 Individually Droughted Properties (IDPs) in a further 24 shires.

REGIONAL SUMMARIES

North Region: A relatively dry January has consolidated pasture condition after an excellent start since October. Farming operations for seasonal crops are generally progressing normally, though there are some areas where it has been too wet or too dry. There have been some problems with cane on the coast relating to wet conditions into the new year.

West Region: Extreme daily temperatures (in excess of 40 degrees) have caused some burning and the maturing of pastures. However, the region continues to enjoy above average conditions. Flood levels have receded and there have been no reports of stock losses. However, some fencing losses are expected from major river flows of the Gregory, Nicholson, Georgina and Cooper systems. Scattered storms have been the main provider of this month's rain which has been below the monthly average.

Central Region:. Rainfall in January was below average across Central Queensland. Livestock condition is generally good and pastures have dried off during the month with the hot conditions and low rainfall. The cropping outlook is good with large areas of summer crop at various stages of growth. In the Central Highlands a large area of sunflower is expected to be planted. Consequently, the winter crop area may reduce, unless the exceptional season continues and areas are double cropped. Canegrowers in the region have begun spraying to control orange rust.

South-East Region: Very hot conditions and erratic storm rainfall has presented a mixed picture for the region. Some areas have had good rainfall while other areas wait for significant rainfall with their January rainfall totals well below average. All areas need good run-off rainfall to fill dams and run watercourses. (As at 1 February most areas have had 50mm to 100mm which has caused major stream flows, mainly in coastal areas). High summer temperatures have dried off pastures and crops, rapidly causing water stress and loss of productivity. Severe hailstorms near Beaudesert caused one application for an Individually Disaster Stricken Property declaration. Several other properties in that area reported damage.

South Region: Rainfall for the month was generally below average. The eastern Darling Downs continues to experience dry conditions. Crops and pasture production have been adversely affected as a result. The western half of the region has fared better although the dry weather and extreme heat has taken its toll on agricultural production.

LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES:

North Region: Although January has been relatively dry, there has been a good result from pasture growth and quantity and quality are high in most areas. Stock are in good strong condition. Another very good cattle season is expected in the region provided reasonable rain falls in the wettest month of February.

West Region: The north west is generally in excellent condition, although daily temperatures in excess of 40 degrees have forced the maturity of pastures and burnt others. Stock are continuing to do well but live export transport movements have been interrupted by flooding, particularly in the Georgina River at Camooweal. Rainfall has been variable across the central west but the bulk in the pastures is still excellent and stock continue to do well. Cattle prices are buoyant. There have been reports of isolated fires resulting from dry strikes in the districts east of Cunnamulla and generally stock in the south west are holding their condition.

Central Region: Stock are reported to be good to excellent condition with the exception of some cows with calves at foot, in some isolated locations. Pasture dried off over the region for the most part, particularly because of the very high temperatures for a few days. It is still in good to excellent condition, however, and has recovered in the areas which received rain.

South East Region: Stock condition varies from average to very good depending on the area and rainfall received. Properties that have reduced numbers early in the season are now doing quite well. Cattle prices have remained at the best levels ever. There have been enquiries regarding restocking in some of the drought declared areas and some properties that have been destocked are now offering agistment to stock from drier areas on the Darling Downs. In the Central and North Burnett some drier properties are sending cattle to agistment. There has been a drop in the numbers of stock being fed but some owners will continue to supplement stock until a bulk of pasture is available. Very hot conditions in all areas have affected pasture quality and growth. Generally pasture quantity is good but more rain is needed in most areas, particularly in the southern parts of the region.

South Region: Stock condition is generally good in the western parts of the region but the eastern Darling Downs is experiencing drought conditions with resultant lower body weight. Cattle prices have remained buoyant and wool prices have risen substantially. There has been a steady increase in supplementary feeding as the quality and quantity of pastures is reduced in eastern areas. There has been significant pasture growth in areas to the west where excellent rainfall was received in the early summer months.

CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE

North Region: Good growing conditions prevailed for bananas, pawpaws and tropical tree fruits on the wet tropical coast although some storm damage was reported. A relatively dry month was experienced in the Bowen/Burdekin smallcrop district, where the fallow season for the major commodities continued. Ploughing in of the cover crops commenced and extra rain is desirable to break down the mulch and top up any shortfall in soil moisture. There have been mixed fortunes for broadacre cropping with at least one property on the McBride Plateau forced to replant their grain crop after heavy December rain, while at least one other in the district has chosen not to plant because of dry conditions. Peanuts have been planted on the Atherton Tablelands and Lakeland Downs and seed from pasture species is being harvested, with some being ready earlier than normal. On the wet tropical coast a lot of plant cane has not been properly filled in or fertilised due to wet conditions but the early finish to harvesting on the Atherton Tablelands meant ratoon cane was well established and provided time for farm operations, like fertilising, before the wet arrived in November.

Central Region: Large areas of sorghum and reasonable areas of mung beans were sown during January in the Dawson/Callide and the heat at the end of the month was a cause of concern. Towards the end of the month, high insect populations in bean crops have necessitated spraying. The overall yield potential for all summer crops is above average with the late January/February rain being very timely for young crops and others that were nearing or at flowering. Up until mid January, the season was favourable in the Central Highlands with crops growing well under lush conditions. However, towards the end of the month, hot and dry weather affected some crops causing concern especially with young plants. Rain late in the month has consequently improved the end of season outlook. Significant areas of sunflowers and some corn and sorghum will be planted. Overall excellent summer planting opportunities have resulted in a very large proportion of the cropping area to be sown. Weather conditions in the Mackay district were ideal this month for cane growth but there has been an escalation in the levels of orange rust and other pest problems such as locusts and army worms.

South-East Region: Large areas of peanuts, corn and soybeans have been planted and cropping areas will now be looking for good rainfall to keep crops growing. An increased area of navy beans and mung beans has been planted to capitalise on better prices for these crops. Lack of early planting rain caused many who were planning to plant cotton to look at other options but there have also been growers who are going into areas of dryland cotton this year for the first time. In the Gatton district, sweet corn is the main crop with small areas of capsicums, tomatoes, melons and pumpkins. Growers in the Bundaberg area have a range of crops now being harvested such as tomatoes, zucchinis, squash, capsicums and eggfruit. The month has been dry in the Caboolture district with harvest of the summer pineapple crop starting next month. There have been large crops of mangoes, the avocado crop has had a medium to average crop and lychees have now finished. Significant rainfall is needed in all areas to complete the summer growth period for sugar cane and provide relief to irrigation schedules. South Region: The western portion of the region received sufficient rain to plant summer crops, mainly sorghum and mung beans, with double cropping in some parts. Crop production in the eastern Darling Downs has been greatly affected with important planting opportunities being missed because of the continued dry. Dryland cotton was planted on low soil moisture in the Eastern Downs in anticipation of rain and high commodity prices. To the west there was an excellent opportunity to sow irrigated and dryland crop. Most horticultural production areas are within drought affected shires and the demand for water to supply fruit trees and vegetables has increased due to the hot weather. The apple and grape harvest has commenced. Wine production is expected to fall by a fifth of normal production. However, the flavour of the wine may be intensified.

RAINFALL * (figure in brackets indicates average) North Region: Babinda received 511mm (639), Cairns A/P 275mm (397), Herberton 124mm (n/a), Malanda 328mm (267), Ingham 71mm (398), Innisfail 240mm (n/a), Townsville 47mm (244), Tully 496mm (n/a), Bowen 27mm (n/a), Charters Towers 69mm (n/a) and Georgetown 197mm (227). West Region: Birdsville recorded 24mm (43), Boulia 19mm (56), Windorah 19mm (40), Cloncurry n/a (122), Mt Isa 73mm (96), Longreach 22mm (67), Muttaburra 7mm (91), Winton 44mm (78), Eromanga 35mm (59), Augathella 16mm (73) and Charleville 22mm (70). Central Region: Clermont recorded 28mm (102), Alpha 132mm (102), Springsure 83mm (101), Mackay 203mm (268), Yaamba 40mm (120), Proserpine 105mm (n/a), Biloela 45mm (92), Mt Larcom 58mm (138), Gladstone 24mm (150), and Theodore 8mm (100). South-East Region: Eidsvold recorded 17mm (101), Gayndah 43mm (117), Mundubbera 17mm (105), Esk 22mm (132), Kilkivan 43mm (142), Kingaroy 0.0mm (n/a), Murgon 33mm (107), Nanango 37mm (110), Proston 22mm (95), and Beaudesert 53mm (123). On the coastal fringe Bundaberg received 43mm (202), Maryborough 17mm (164), Nambour 46mm (276) and Tewantin 54mm (n/a). South Region: Clifton 26mm (94), Dalby 33mm (n/a), Goondiwindi 98mm (n/a), Inglewood 49mm (82), Oakey 41mm (83), Pittsworth 52mm (85), Stanthorpe 60mm (102), Toowoomba 38mm (n/a), Warwick 16mm (n/a), Roma 36mm (n/a), St George 71mm (n/a) and Taroom 34mm (94).

WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES

North Region: January was drier than normal across almost all of the north, with a significant number of scattered areas where the monthly total was in the lowest 20% on record. West Region: Flood levels have receded and storms have freshened pastures which had been affected by daily temperatures in excess of 40 degrees. Rainfall has been variable with some areas not receiving equal to average monthly totals. Central Region: January was very dry in most parts of Central Queensland with the only places to record good rainfall being Mackay and the Central West. The highest streamflow originated in the Isaac River with moderate flows coming from the Mackenzie River, particularly Theresa Creek near Emerald. Lower flows were recorded in the Comet and lower Dawson Rivers. Stock water supplies have not been replenished in a small patch of country north of Dingo. South-East Region: Generally there has been below average rainfall in all areas. Many creeks and watercourses have not yet run and significant rainfall is still needed to fill dams and major water storages. South Region: Rainfall recorded ranged from 25mm to 80mm. There were minor flows in the Moonie and Weir Rivers and rain on the eastern Downs provided only limited runoff. The Condamine River at Warwick had only a slight flow after stopping in October and the middle and lower reaches down to Chinchilla remain dry. The Dumaresq and Severn Rivers in the border region remained dry while major flooding occurred at Goondiwindi due to heavy rains in northern New South Wales.

Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY

Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454

National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)

The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries.