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07 Aug 2008

OUTLOOK:

The 30-day average of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is -0.1 as of the 4th July. The sharp rise in the SOI during June has increased rainfall probabilities across most of Queensland at least in the immediate future, however given the larger-scale climate patterns that envelope the SOI, this may only provide a very brief reprieve from the dry. So it is critically important to update the SOI forecast at the end of July. Across Queensland the chance of rainfall in the next 3 months being equal to or above the long term median rainfall in the Darling/Southern Downs is around 60-70%; in the Warrego as high as 80%; in central Queensland 60-70% although reaching to 70-80% along coastal areas; 70% in the inland Burnett regions although dropping to 50-60% along the coast; and 30-40% in southern gulf regions. Note that a 70% probability of receiving the long-term median for a location also means there is a 30% probability of not receiving the median for that location. These probability values are simply statements of fact referring to the history of rainfall events for particular locations over the past 100 years. Sea-surface temperatures (SSTs): Sea surface temperatures in the key regions of the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean are mainly close to long term average (although SST's in the far east are warmer than normal). Interestingly, according to the latest data from the USA/French TOPEX Poseidon satellite mission, a pulse of warm water is travelling towards South America. This equatorial, eastward travelling Kelvin Wave (bulge or pulse of warm water) is due to arrive at the west coast of South America in late July. The arrival of the Kelvin Wave is expected to cause a warming of the eastern Pacific Ocean similar to an El Niņo like sea surface temperature pattern. Kelvin Waves are triggered by westerly wind bursts and are usually seen before the development (within the next year or so) of an El Niņo. STATE OVERVIEW:

Generally the State has experienced mild and dry conditions this month. There have been fewer frosts than normal but one particularly heavy frost in South East Queensland resulted in a marked deterioration in pasture quality. There has been a limited amount of winter crop planted throughout the state due to a lack of subsoil moisture and in part to the large amount of summer crop planted in Central Queensland. The planting window in many areas closed at the end of June but there is potential for planting if sufficient rain is received until the end of July. Cattle prices remain good. The nineteen south eastern shires of Kingaroy, Nanango, Wondai, Murgon, Eidsvold, Monto, Gayndah, Mundubbera, Chinchilla, Wambo, Pittsworth, Clifton, Jondaryan, Rosalie, Cambooya, Toowoomba, Warwick, Stanthorpe and Millmerran and the western part of Kilkivan Shire west of the Wide Bay Creek remain drought declared under State drought processes. These declarations represent 3.4% of the land area of the state. There are also 364 Individually Droughted Properties (IDPs) in a further 26 shires.

REGIONAL SUMMARIES:

North Region: Generally normal seasonal conditions exist in the north. Extensive grazing is seeing pasture quality decline as would be expected. There are no reports of seasonal conditions unduly affecting cropping and horticulture. However, wetter than normal conditions accompanied sugar cane harvesting along parts of the wet tropical coast. A major impact on the northern industry being measured is the greyback canegrub, with estimates of the northern harvest already downsized as affected crops are harvested first.

West Region: Generally the region is in average condition with a plentiful supply of bulk in the pastures, but these will continue to deteriorate as the season progresses. Frosts have been minimal, however, the impact has resulted in pasture deterioration. A rain band moved across the far south west area early in the month and delivered isolated falls of 25mm and greater. Benefits expected are herbage growth and a revitalisation of the mulga. A bulk regeneration of pasture is not expected.

Central Region:. Only patchy light rainfall was recorded in most inland parts of the region during the month. Highest falls recorded were in north coastal areas. The summer crop harvest is now complete in the Dawson/Callide areas and has been free of any problems caused by wet weather. The planting window for winter crops is all but closed throughout Central Region. If planting rain occurs in southern parts, some winter crop may still be planted. Subsoil moisture in the Central Highlands is still quite good. The small amount of winter crop in the region benefited from the small falls of rain recorded during the month.

South-East Region: There has been limited rainfall across the region during June. Generally the weather has been mild with few frosts in comparison to normal. However, there was one particularly heavy frost with temperatures dropping to between -5 and -6 degrees. Stock condition generally varies between average to very good depending on the amount of rain received and the area. Cattle prices remain good.

South Region: There are large areas of the region that are experiencing a major rainfall deficit for the previous twelve months. The key cropping areas have been adversely affected with only a fifth of available winter cropping area planted. The Goondiwindi and St George areas have fared better. There is little winter herbage growth to this point. Cattle, pig, wool and the lamb markets have received significant increases to commodity prices.

LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES:

North Region: A typical "dry" season for the north with stock prices for store and slaughter cattle remaining high. Meatworks are in full production and cattle are booked in for several weeks ahead. Generally pastures have a reasonable bulk but quality is falling off and protein levels are rapidly declining which is normal for this time of year. Therefore stock are generally in reasonable to good condition with the exception of "wet" cows who are experiencing weight loss.

West Region: Stock are generally in good condition (score 3+) in the North West but wet breeders are slipping in condition. The hayed pastures are beginning to deteriorate and supplementation will soon be required to maintain stock as the season progresses. In the Central West several frosts have caused buffel pastures to deteriorate. There is an abundance of hayed pastures across the Downs country with the Desert Upland country being slightly less than average. Stock are generally in good condition and market values have increased turn-off of cattle. Sheep values have also risen. Stock are continuing to slip in condition (score 2, in many instances) in the South West and producers are reducing numbers significantly and/or taking to the road with stock. The provision of licks plus Mulga pushing is occurring to provide supplement for the remaining stock.

Central Region: Cattle are generally in better than fair condition. However, they are starting to slip, particularly in less favoured areas. For the most part, pasture has dried off and has reduced in nutritive value. There are areas of shortage which can be attributed to either lack of rainfall or overgrazing.

South East Region: Stock condition throughout the region is typical of an average season and varies from average to very good depending on the area and amount of rainfall received. Cattle prices are good. Some producers are supplementing stock as a normal winter management practice or production feeding to finish-off sale stock. Dry conditions and frosts have hayed off pastures markedly. The quantity is good but varies due to the erratic nature of storm rainfall received.

South Region: The condition of stock has slowly declined as the quality and quantity of summer pasture falls. The loss of condition can be partly attributed to insufficient rain to promote winter herbage growth and there has been movement of stock from properties in the drier western areas to sale and agistment. There are parts of the eastern Downs as well as Booringa, Murilla, Taroom and Chinchilla shires which are experiencing stock water shortages. The pasture available to stock has steadily declined and large areas of the region had insufficient summer grass production to carry over the winter period.

CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE

North Region: Generally favourable conditions for horticulture continued in the Bowen/Burdekin district with a little rain, some cloudy days and mild temperatures. Harvesting of most commodities is taking place. Black Sigatoka in the Tully Valley banana industry remains the major issue. By the end of an overcast and drizzly month on the Atherton Tablelands and Mareeba district, most of the peanut crop was harvested with good results. The maize harvest continued with no significant problems caused by seasonal conditions. However, there was some disruption by rain to the early season potato harvest on the top tableland. Planting continued in various parts of the region.

Central Region: There has been little rain recorded in the Callide/Dawson during the month and crops that have been planted are now starting to struggle, with the yield potential for most crops dropping away. The chickpea crops that have been planted are faring better, although they will also need rain within the next few weeks. South of Emerald most growers recorded 10-15mm of rain which will help some of the few crops that actually exist, but will not be enough for many growers. Crops of wheat and chickpeas that had been zero tilled into good moisture profiles were still looking good before the rain and appear to have some potential now. The winter cropping window closes for Central Queensland at the end of June which means that there is a significant area of cultivation (which has good subsoil moisture) available for spring or early summer crops. Most of these paddocks will need 50-75mm of rain to provide a planting opportunity.

South-East Region: Many areas have poor subsoil moisture which has limited the prospects for the winter cropping season and producers have been waiting for rain as the favoured winter cropping window closes in late July. However, wheat, chickpeas and barley have been planted with an increased interest in barley. There have been good yields and returns from early planted summer corn crops and peanut crops have also yielded well.

South Region: There has been 15% to 20% of available winter crop planted over most of the Downs and the Maranoa. However, there have been higher percentages reported over the border rivers area of Waggamba and Balonne shires. To the west the opportunity to plant has now passed but there were plantings of wheat west of Goondiwindi and around Dirranbandi after 50mm-60mm of rain fell in the middle of the month. The eastern areas have the potential to plant through to the end of July. However, large areas have poor moisture profiles and the yield potential drops significantly as each month passes from the optimal planting time. There is also concern that crops planted under conditions of limited subsoil moisture may be threatened as the dry continues. Fruit trees are in the dormancy phase.

RAINFALL (figure in brackets indicates average)

North Region: Babinda received 332mm (208) Cairns A/P 47mm (50), Herberton 61mm (n/a), Malanda 138mm (62), Ingham 83mm (43), Innisfail 276mm (n/a), Townsville 10mm (20), Tully 308mm (n/a), Bowen 17mm (n/a), Charters Towers 9mm (n/a) and Georgetown 6mm (6). West Region: Birdsville recorded n/a (8), Boulia 16mm (7), Windorah 62mm (12), Cloncurry n/a (8), Mt Isa 0.0mm (3), Longreach 8mm (13), Muttaburra 6mm (13), Winton 10mm (11), Eromanga 18 (14), Augathella 40mm (24) and Charleville 54mm (19). Central Region: Clermont recorded 5mm (24), Alpha 2mm (23), Springsure 12mm (24), Mackay 67mm (64), Yaamba 34mm (38), Proserpine 29mm (n/a), Biloela 7mm (31), Mt Larcom 11mm (36), Gladstone 29mm (35), and Theodore 9mm (28). South-East Region: Eidsvold recorded n/a (38), Gayndah 2mm (30), Mundubbera 2mm (31), Esk 4mm (51), Kilkivan 9mm (40), Kingaroy 8mm (n/a), Murgon 2mm (34), Nanango 6mm (34), Proston 3mm (31), and Beaudesert 7mm (49). On the coastal fringe Bundaberg received 2mm (54), Maryborough 26mm (64), Nambour 53mm (95) and Tewantin 49mm (n/a). South Region: Clifton 1mm (32), Dalby 0.4mm (n/a), Goondiwindi 30mm (n/a), Inglewood 3mm (28), Oakey 0.4mm (33), Pittsworth n/a (37), Stanthorpe 2mm (39), Toowoomba A/P 9mm (n/a), Warwick 4mm (n/a), Roma 6mm (n/a), St George A/P 80mm (n/a) and Taroom 7mm (29).

WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES

North Region: There were wetter than average conditions along the coast north from Ingham to Cooktown and adjacent hinterland including the Atherton Tableland. Elsewhere it was average or drier than normal. Both above and below ground supplies are adequate in the Bowen Stock District but the Don aquifers are showing declining levels. Rivers and streams in the Gulf region have stopped running with the exception of the Gilbert River on Miranda and Delta. Generally there have been no reports of water shortages in the region.

West Region: On property storages within the South West are receding with many dams already dry. Dams in the Tambo and Winton areas of the Central West are still lacking supplies. Waterholes in water courses are adequate at this time. Rainfall has been extremely patchy and in some cases sufficient to promote pasture but insufficient for run-off to replenish dam supplies.

Central Region: The majority of the rainfall in June occurred in the last few days of the month. The upper and lower Dawson continues to be dry as are the areas around Dingo and Duaringa. Streamflows in all streams in Central Queensland were well below the mean for the month. There were base flow recessions in all areas with many streams having stopped flowing. There was no runoff during the month.

South-East Region: Dry conditions have continued across the region. The mild winter weather has slowed evaporation rates which has allowed dams to maintain water levels. Bore levels in most areas are being maintained.

South Region: Continuing dry conditions have led to an increase in irrigation demands across the Downs. Water levels in the alluvial aquifers associated with the Condamine River on the eastern Downs remain in a depleted state as well as declines in the main tributary streams. Aquifers in the consolidated formations in the basalt and sandstone are continuing to decline.

Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY

Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454

National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)

The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries.