| SITUATION AS AT 31 MARCH 2001
The 30-day average of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI)
was +6.3 (on 4/04/01). Based on the SOI, the probabilities of receiving at least
median April-May-June rainfall are between 40 and 60% for most of eastern Australia.
Coastal regions south of Rockhampton and also the Central Highlands have between
a 60% and 80% chance of getting at least median April-June rainfall.
Coastal regions along the eastern seaboard south of Rockhampton
(the south-east coast) still have reasonably high probabilities (60-80%) of
receiving higher than normal April-June rainfall. The Brisbane-Gympie area has
somewhat higher probabilities (70-80%). The northern half of the Cape York Peninsula
also has reasonably high probabilities (60-70%) of exceeding normal (median)
rainfall. Note that a 70% probability of receiving the long-term median for
a location also means there is a 30% probability of not receiving the median
for that location. These probability values are simply statements of fact referring
to the history of rainfall events for particular locations over the past 100
years. The outlook for winter is dependent on whether or not an El Ni–o develops
during the next 3 months.
Sea-surface temperatures (SSTs): Many general circulation
models are suggesting that there is a potential for warming in the eastern equatorial
Pacific Ocean over the next 3 to 6 months. There has been warming of SSTs in
the far eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean during March; however, it is too early
to tell if this will continue to develop into something significant such as
an El Ni–o. Pasture Growth forecasts: The probabilities of obtaining median
pasture growth or better during the April-May-June period are very patchy across
the state. In the north and in coastal regions there are mostly low probabilities
(10%) of 'above-average' growth. However, probabilities are higher (between
50% and 70%) in central and western districts.
STATE OVERVIEW
Generally rainfall across the state has been below average
for this time of the year. While it has affected some crops, especially in the
South East, it has also been of benefit in allowing cattle paddocks to dry out
and for land preparation and planting in North region. Stock remain in good
to excellent condition with prices buoyant. The cropping outlook is positive
in Central region but further rainfall is needed to provide opportunities for
winter crop planting. The nineteen south eastern shires of Kingaroy, Nanango,
Wondai. Murgon, Eidsvold, Monto, Gayndah, Mundubbera, Chinchilla, Wambo, Pittsworth,
Clifton, Jondaryan, Rosalie, Cambooya, Toowoomba, Warwick, Stanthorpe and Millmerran
and the western part of Kilkivan Shire west of the Wide Bay Creek remain drought
declared under State drought processes. There are also 305 Individually Droughted
Properties (IDPs) in a further 25 shires.
REGIONAL SUMMARIES:
North Region: Overall fodder and water are in good supply
throughout the region and stock are in forward to excellent condition. Cattle
prices are high and the situation is very good for exports. The Tablelands experienced
a relatively dry March and while cattle paddocks enjoyed some reprieve and benefited
from the drier month, this could lead to reduced yields of seed, peanut and
maize crops in the Atherton, Kairi and Tinaroo areas.
West Region: Continuing high daily temperatures have dried
the maturing pastures, however, generally the region continues to enjoy above
average conditions. The strip of country on the eastern fringe from north of
Aramac to about Augathella enjoyed good rain at the beginning of February but
rainfall in other areas has generally been well below the monthly average in
most recording centres. The region south of Charleville is considered to have
the least grass cover and there have been reports of some surface water problems
and shortages in pasture.
Central Region:. Rainfall for March was average to below
average across most of Central Queensland with the exception of above average
falls in inland southern areas centred on the Dawson Valley. Livestock condition
is still good to excellent but stock water is short north of Dingo and Duaringa
and in other isolated parts of the region. The cropping outlook remains positive
with summer crop yield expectations above average in most areas, but most cropping
areas will need further rainfall to provide a planting opportunity for winter
crops.
South-East Region: Rainfall across the region has been
extremely patchy during the month. Hot conditions have increased evaporation
rates and wilted crops and pastures. The Central and North Burnett, Bundaberg
and Brisbane Valley districts all require good run-off rainfall to fill dams
and run creeks. Outlook for industries will be variable due to the erratic rainfall.
South Region: The Miles, Taroom, Roma and Injune districts
recorded well below median rainfall for summer and this month's rainfall did
little to change conditions in these areas. The excellent falls on the eastern
Darling Downs in February with up to 90mm in March have been positive for production
trends. The western half of the region experienced a drier than average summer
and early autumn period with the result of deterioration in pasture and cropping
production.
LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES:
North Region: Stock condition is good to excellent throughout
the region. The live cattle market is very active out of Townsville and many
cattle will be able to be marketed in forward store/fat condition during coming
months. Pasture quality and quantity is generally good to excellent with a few
small areas which have only received lighter rainfall over the last few months
experiencing decline in quantity due to hot, windy conditions during March.
It is expected that large quantities of standover pastures on top of a prolonged
and good pasture growing wet season will cause fire problems during the year,
especially in the Normanton district.
West Region: The area north of the Mt Isa to Townsville
rail line has continued to receive storm rains, keeping pastures green for those
fortunate to receive the falls but daily temperatures of in excess of 40c have
forced the maturity of pastures and burnt others, south of the rail line. Conditions
are generally excellent and stock are continuing to do well in all districts.
Livestock movements remain slow as storms interfere with road conditions and
transport. Rainfall has been variable across the central west with pastures
maturing and burning off in some areas, but the bulk is still excellent. Stock
are continuing to do very well. Cattle values continue to hold and in some cases,
increase, in the Blackall and Longreach saleyards. Rainfall has been scattered
in the south west and there have been reports of isolated fires resulting from
"dry strikes". Generally stock are holding their condition in this area.
Central Region: Stock are in good to excellent condition.
There is still an excellent body of feed in most of the region, in varying states
of greenness depending on the recent rain. Overall the region will be going
into winter with a good deal of confidence and should be reasonably stocked,
given the current cattle prices.
South East Region: Stock condition generally varies from
average to very good depending on area and rainfall received. Cattle prices
have remained at the best levels ever and there is little to no drought feeding
occurring in the region at present. Very hot and humid conditions have affected
pasture quality and growth. Generally pasture quantity is good to excellent
but varies greatly due to the erratic nature of storm rainfall received during
the month. Coastal and inland districts which received significant rainfall
have had property dams replenished. The hot weather has caused increased water
usage by stock which has led to deterioration in the supply and quality of dam
water in areas which have not received rainfall. Bore levels in most areas are
being maintained.
South Region: Stock maintained average to better body
weights in the western parts of the region over the summer and the good rain
during February has been of benefit to the eastern Downs resulting in stock
improving their body condition. The cattle, pig, wool and lamb markets have
received significant increases to commodity prices. There was good quality significant
pasture growth to the west during spring and early summer but the heat and then
below average summer rainfall have diminished the quality. The eastern portion
of the region has responded to rain in February and March and quality of pastures
has improved.
CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE
North Region: The Bowen district experienced dry conditions
which allowed land preparation and planting for the new season. Large areas
of capsicums and tomatoes have been sown. It has been fine and hot in the wet
tropics and growers are currently irrigating which is unusual for March. The
first peanut crop has been pulled on the Atherton Tablelands where dry conditions
have prevailed, but some relief rain was experienced towards the end of the
month. The maize crop is reaching physiological maturity with few problems reported
and some summer potatoes are in the ground. March was drier than normal in the
region's coastal sugar cane growing areas.
Central Region: In the Central Highlands where most grain
growers around Rolleston and Kilcummin/Mt McLaren received good rainfall, the
crops are doing well. However, the areas between Clermont and Springsure have
generally received no useful rain for several weeks. Despite recent dry conditions,
sorghum yields will be significantly better than average, with many farms expected
to harvest at least 2.4t/ha with many growers on better soils achieving 4t/ha
or above. Corn and sunflower crops planted in February are now in need of rainfall
to keep them on track for good yield potential. There will be a reduced area
of winter crop due to the large area of summer crop grown. The western and southern
parts of the Dawson Valley received good rainfall for the month, further adding
to the nearly full soil moisture profiles in the area. The southern parts of
the Callide Valley have remained dry while the rest of the area received moderate
falls during the month. The rain has caused some delay of the sorghum and mung
bean harvest. Cotton picking commenced during March with small reductions in
quality due to rain following defoliation in some cases. Some mung bean crops
still have reasonable subsoil moisture levels after harvest, which could see
some paddocks double cropped to wheat, depending on the amount of planting rain
received. Chickpeas are likely to be planted into some of the earlier harvested
sorghum crops.
South-East Region: Yield potential of summer crops varies
greatly across the region due to the erratic storm rainfall. In the North Burnett,
crops have done well with some sorghum now ready to be harvested. However, lack
of in-crop rainfall has reduced expected crop yields to average or below average
in the Binjour/Gurgeena area. Crops have wilted under hot conditions and patchy
rain in the South Burnett and many crops of corn were badly affected by heat
stress at tasselling and have suffered yield declines. Navy beans were also
adversely affected and as a result some crops have been ploughed in and others
baled for hay. Dryland cotton has had high insect pressure and irrigated cotton
is now being harvested. Sorghum crops in most districts have done well. South
Region: The western portion of the region received sufficient rain to plant
summer crops over a large area and there has been sufficient rain to double
crop in some areas. Sorghum and mung bean crops were planted extensively but
below average rain in the western areas over summer has reduced the production
of summer crop. Important planting opportunities were missed in the eastern
Darling Downs because of the continued dry conditions. Cotton planted on the
Darling Downs has reduced production and areas planted but the western areas
of Dirranbandi and St George are experiencing good yields.
RAINFALL * (figure in brackets indicates average) North
Region: Babinda received 424mm (816), Cairns A/P 132mm (449), Herberton 133mm
(n/a), Malanda 152mm (347), Ingham 408mm (454), Innisfail 311mm (n/a), Townsville
52mm (176), Tully 443mm (n/a), Bowen 31mm (n/a), Charters Towers 49mm (n/a)
and Georgetown 308mm (140). West Region: Birdsville recorded 11mm (19), Boulia
57mm (35), Windorah 25mm (32), Cloncurry 26mm (62), Mt Isa 54mm (65), Longreach
18mm (65), Muttaburra 3mm (64), Winton 22mm (51), Eromanga 8mm (34), Augathella
44mm (63) and Charleville 18mm (59). Central Region: Clermont recorded 65mm
(75), Alpha 49mm (70), Springsure 44mm (69), Mackay 94mm (312), Yaamba 91mm
(117), Proserpine 104mm (n/a), Biloela 147mm (52), Mt Larcom 73mm (109), Gladstone
31mm (104), and Theodore 88mm (46). South-East Region: Eidsvold recorded 30mm
(71), Gayndah 130mm (59), Mundubbera 143mm (56), Esk 71mm (87), Kilkivan 111mm
(85), Kingaroy n/a (n/a), Murgon 14mm (72), Nanango 82mm (74), Proston 71mm
(68), and Beaudesert 83mm (100). On the coastal fringe Bundaberg received 82mm
(127), Maryborough 99mm (134), Nambour 315mm (215) and Tewantin 294mm (n/a).
South Region: Clifton 70mm (73), Dalby 69mm (n/a), Goondiwindi 57mm (n/a), Inglewood
40mm (59), Oakey 12mm (52), Pittsworth 58mm (69), Stanthorpe 117mm (76), Toowoomba
A/P 37mm (n/a), Warwick 103mm (n/a), Roma 67mm (n/a), St George A/P 52mm (n/a)
and Taroom 62mm (64).
WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES
North Region: Most, if not all, surface waters are full
in the Mareeba and Georgetown districts where rainfall has been varied, with
heavy falls producing good run off. Bore and surface water availability in the
Charters Towers area is adequate, with some increased evaporation due to high
daily temperatures. Both above and below ground water supplies are plentiful
in the Bowen district and no water problems are reported in the Townsville area.
West Region: No surface water problems have been reported from the northern
areas of the region, however, a top up of storages would finish off the good
season. The south west has experienced little or no rainfall with showers and
storms being patchy and narrow, resulting in deteriorating water storage facilities.
Central Region: Rain fell over the bulk of the region during the month with
up to 175mm in the Springsure area. Most of the falls were useful but once again
some parts missed out. There has been a lack of "water" rain as opposed to "grass"
rain and this is causing concern in a few areas. The worst affected area is
the northern part of Duaringa Shire. South-East Region: In many areas there
was useful rainfall which filled dams and ran watercourses. However, many pockets
such as in the Boonah, Monto and Eidsvold areas have missed out. South Region:
Parts of the Downs as well as Booringa, Taroom and Chinchilla shires are experiencing
stock water shortages. The drier conditions have led to an increased demand
for irrigation supplies. Water levels in most groundwater aquifer systems are
gradually declining although the main alluvial aquifer associated with the Condamine
River on the eastern Darling Downs remains in a depleted state. Water levels
in the aquifers in the consolidated formations in the basalt and sandstone are
declining.
Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY
Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454
National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)
 |
The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries. |
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