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SITUATION AS AT 31 MAY 2001
Based on the latest values and trends of the Southern
Oscillation Index (SOI), the probabilities of receiving above-median rainfall
over the June-July-August period are between 20% and 60% for much of Queensland.
Exceptions include small areas of the Central Highlands and Cape York that have
chances of between 50% and 70% of above-median June-August rainfall totals.
Regions of southern Queensland that were drought affected over much of the previous
two growing seasons have probabilities between 30% and 50% of getting at least
June-August median rainfall. The areas with the lowest chance (20%-30%) of exceeding
the median June-August rainfall total are in the far western and south west
Downs, the Warrego and Maranoa. Note that a 70% probability of receiving the
long-term median for a location also means there is a 30% probability of not
receiving the median for that location. These probability values are simply
statements of fact referring to the history of rainfall events for particular
locations over the past 100 years.
Sea-surface temperatures (SSTs): Sea surface
temperatures in the key regions of the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean are
mainly close to average or slightly warmer than average. Although the recent
westerly wind burst has created the necessary preconditions for an El Niņo,
it has not been included in some of the General Circulation Model (GCM) analyses
and forecasts. Most of the GCMs, i.e. 8 out of a selected 12, are predicting
that we will be in a "neutral" event in 6 months time.
Pasture Growth forecasts: The probabilities
of obtaining median pasture growth or better during the May-June-July period
are below 50% for most of the state, although in the south-east they are mostly
above 80%.
STATE OVERVIEW:
Generally rainfall across the state has
been below average for this time of year and rain is needed within the next
few weeks to ensure soil moisture to plant crops or to establish planted crops.
Conditions have been favourable generally for the summer crop with good results
from the peanut and maize harvest on the Atherton Tablelands and sorghum and
cotton crops in Central Queensland. Summer pasture growing has ceased and pastures
have hayed off with the onset of winter conditions. The condition of stock remains
good to excellent in most areas and prices are very good. The nineteen south
eastern shires of Kingaroy, Nanango, Wondai, Murgon, Eidsvold, Monto, Gayndah,
Mundubbera, Chinchilla, Wambo, Pittsworth, Clifton, Jondaryan, Rosalie, Cambooya,
Toowoomba, Warwick, Stanthorpe and Millmerran and the western part of Kilkivan
Shire west of the Wide Bay Creek remain drought declared under State drought
processes. There are also 315 Individually Droughted Properties (IDPs) in a
further 25 shires. These declarations represent 3.4% of the land area of the
state.
REGIONAL SUMMARIES:
North Region: May was dry throughout the
region and frosts were reported in some areas. Stock are still in good to excellent
condition but will be expected to lose condition as pasture supplies lose protein
and quantity, particularly if cold conditions and/or light rain occur. Stock
prices for all types of cattle remain very good. Seasonal conditions have been
good for horticulture and cropping, particularly for those with the capacity
to irrigate.
West Region: Weather conditions early in
the month were very mild with rainfall being well below the median in most centres.
Generally conditions are average for this time of year with a large amount of
hayed off bulk pasture remaining. The lack of follow-up rains and extreme heat
earlier in the year have resulted in gross deterioration of available pasture
in the Adavale/Quilpie/Cunnamulla area.
Central Region:. Rainfall for May was very
much below average across the majority of Central Queensland. Livestock condition
is generally good to excellent although stock that are reported to be just holding
are likely to slip as pastures continue to hay off and winter conditions prevail.
The summer crop has been in the main quite profitable. The winter crop outlook
has deteriorated and will remain poor unless useful planting rain is received
soon.
South-East Region: Rainfall across the region
has been extremely limited during the month with most areas receiving only light
showers. It is a mixed picture for many areas, depending mainly on the amount
of summer storm rainfall received. Generally the weather has been mild with
very few frosts which has maintained pasture quality and been favourable for
most crops. The winter broadacre crop outlook is now dependant on a significant
fall of rain to either establish planted crops or ensure adequate soil moisture
to plant crops.
South Region: There is an area within the
southern portion of Taroom shire, north of Murilla and west of the Chinchilla
shire, which has experienced a major rainfall deficit over the previous twelve
months. Only a fifth of available winter cropping area has been planted. The
window of planting opportunity will close at the end of June in the west but
the eastern areas have the potential to plant through to the end of July.
LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES:
North Region: Stock condition in the Bowen
district is excellent to fair. The quantity of pasture is diminishing steadily
and the quality dropping rapidly. In the Townsville Stock District stock are
holding and pasture supplies are adequate for the medium term. Stock condition
in the Charters Towers district is holding well with forward store cattle still
available. Breeders with calves at foot are at store condition with supplementary
feeding now common place. A body of grass is still very evident throughout the
shire with the exception of south west of Prairie. Stock numbers through the
Mareeba saleyards are averaging 1000/week and there are movements from properties
especially along the Mitchell to finishing country on the Downs and to company
properties. While there is a good body of feed, it is drying out rapidly and
fires will be a problem. Stock condition remains excellent in the Georgetown
Stock District with cattle in forward store/fat condition. Wet cows have slipped
back, particularly on lighter country. Most properties have a fairly good body
of dry feed but many are now supplementing cattle. Cooler than average temperatures
due to strong south east winds have resulted in pastures haying off quicker
than normal in the Normanton area. Stock are in 2 to 3 fat condition. Wet cattle
are starting to slip with dry cattle holding condition.
West Region: Stock in the north west are
generally in good condition (score 3+), however, some wet breeders are beginning
to show the effects of winter and slip in condition. Pastures have hayed off
but plenty of bulk is available. Cattle movements have continued to increase
along the northern line as producers take advantage of the current market values.
In the central west stock are also generally in good condition. Sheep values
have also risen in value, allowing producers to capitalise on the market as
the season begins to deteriorate. There is an abundance of hayed pastures across
the Downs country, but the Desert Upland region is considered to be in slightly
less than average condition. Cattle are slipping in condition in the south west
and owners are reducing stock numbers significantly and/or taking to the road
with stock. Mulga pushing is being implemented to provide supplement for the
remaining stock.
Central Region: Stock are generally still
in good to excellent condition but there is an expectation that there will be
a decline soon as dry and cold winter conditions prevail. Pasture has hayed
off during the month, particularly where there have been frosts, but there is
still generally a good quantity. There are some areas of lesser pasture quantity
that are not necessarily related to lack of rainfall. Some supplementary feeding
has commenced with lick blocks.
South East Region: Stock condition in the
region generally varies from average to very good depending on area and rainfall
received. Cattle prices have remained at the best levels ever. Some producers
are now beginning to supplement stock as a normal winter management practice
or production feeding to finish off sale stock. Hay has been in strong demand
in the Burnett district. Generally pasture quantity is good to excellent but
varies greatly due to the erratic nature of storm rainfall received during the
month.
South Region: The condition of stock has
reached a plateau or slowly declined as the quality and quantity of summer pasture
falls. Cattle, pig, wool and the lamb markets have received significant increases
to commodity prices over recent times. There has been movement of stock from
properties in the drier western areas to sale and agistment. Properties in the
western areas produced good quality feed through late spring and early summer.
To the east the quality improved with late summer rain but it has now been reduced
due to limited rainfall and the commencement of winter.
CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE
North Region: May was favourably dry for
horticulture in the Bowen/Burdekin district, although a spate of cool to cold
weather had some impact on tomato fruit quality. Heavy planting continued in
tomatoes and capsicum. Markets are variable, with some watermelons being left
in the field and returns for beans below the cost of production at times. Mangoes
are showing early signs that it may be a better and more uniform flowering this
year. There have been good growing conditions for bananas and pawpaws and other
tropical fruit in the wet tropics. However, the banana industry has been hit
hard by the outbreak of the fungal disease Black Sigatoka in the Tully Valley.
The major part of the peanut harvest occurred on the Atherton Tablelands with
good quality and average yields reported. The Tablelands maize crop is being
harvested with good results. Dry conditions were experienced across the cane
growing regions, providing few interruptions to planting and other operations.
Harvesting got under way on the Tablelands, while other districts are preparing
for harvest.
Central Region: In the Dawson/Callide Valley
only small areas have been planted with winter crop. This is partly due to the
increased area of summer crop planted last season resulting in little area available
for winter crop planting. There are some areas that were planted to mungbeans
or early sorghum that potentially could be double cropped to wheat, however,
significant rainfall will be needed within three weeks for this to occur. The
lack of rain has meant that the late summer crops have been harvested without
rain interruptions with some quite good sorghum yields reported from the western
and southern parts of the Dawson Valley. The area's cotton crop has also finished
with some quite good yields being recorded. The onset of winter has also been
very dry throughout the Central Highlands. The small amount of winter crop currently
planted generally is on properties that have introduced zero till farming practices.
There are some reasonable wheat and chickpea crops around the Kilcummin area
which experienced earlier planting rain. To achieve reasonable yields in these
winter crops, further rainfall is needed.
South-East Region: The summer corn crops
are now being harvested with good yields and returns from the early planted
crops. Peanut crops have yielded well with a significant increase in quality
due to lower aflatoxin levels. Most bean crops in the Burnett suffered from
insect pressure and as a result yielded poorly. Many producers are still waiting
for rain to plant winter crops. The first of the winter potato crop is now being
harvested in the Gatton area and other crops planted are brassicas, lettuce
and onions. In the Bundaberg region conditions have been dry and a range of
crops such as tomatoes, zucchinis, squash, capsicum and eggfruit are now being
harvested. Avocadoes, citrus and custard apples are also now in their main harvest
season. Rainfall is needed in all areas to complete the summer growth period
of cane and provide relief to irrigation schedules. South Region: There have
been some chickpeas planted in the eastern Downs area but large areas have poor
moisture profile. Seed oats sales were high with the anticipation of planting
rain and high prices for cattle. During February, the Granite Belt recorded
high rainfall which caused disease, harvest problems and a reduction in sugar
content with the grape crop. The autumn months have been warmer than normal
and this situation has the potential to cause problems for next season's fruit
as apples, grapes and stonefruit require specific chilling hours to ensure the
best quality fruit.
RAINFALL * (figure in brackets indicates
average) North Region: Babinda received 25mm (427) Cairns A/P 3mm (107), Herberton
1mm (n/a), Malanda 7mm (118), Ingham 5mm (126), Innisfail 43mm (n/a), Townsville
0.0mm (40), Tully 11mm (n/a), Bowen 1mm (n/a), Charters Towers 1mm (n/a) and
Georgetown 0.0mm (10).
West Region: Birdsville recorded 0.0mm (14),
Boulia 0.0mm (14), Windorah 0.0mm (23), Cloncurry n/a (13), Mt Isa 0.0mm (13),
Longreach 0.2mm (29), Muttaburra 0.2mm (22), Winton 0.0mm (23), Eromanga n/a
(25), Augathella 22mm (38) and Charleville 22mm (41).
Central Region: Clermont recorded 2mm (47),
Alpha 1mm (40), Springsure 1mm (47), Mackay 28mm (115), Yaamba 22mm (63), Proserpine
6mm (n/a), Biloela 11mm (43), Mt Larcom 27mm (63), Gladstone 13mm (70), and
Theodore 10mm (47).
South-East Region: Eidsvold recorded 47mm
(44), Gayndah 49mm (41), Mundubbera 53mm (40), Esk 40mm (59), Kilkivan 48mm
(49), Kingaroy 62mm (n/a), Murgon 52mm (46), Nanango 44mm (48), Proston 26mm
(45), and Beaudesert 30mm (76). On the coastal fringe Bundaberg received 23mm
(69), Maryborough 33mm (78), Nambour 16mm (139) and Tewantin 29mm (n/a).
South Region: Clifton 49mm (48), Dalby 15mm
(n/a), Goondiwindi 37mm (n/a), Inglewood 21mm (43), Oakey 10mm (45), Pittsworth
17mm (44), Stanthorpe 22mm (59), Toowoomba A/P 14mm (n/a), Warwick 37mm (n/a),
Roma 4mm (n/a), St George A/P 45mm (n/a) and Taroom 8mm (42).
WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES
North Region: A dry month was experienced
across the north, with rainfall in the lowest ten percent on record along much
of the east coast and the grazing lands of Dalrymple Shire. Generally surface
water is reported as adequate but in the Mareeba Stock District it is drying
back rapidly. In the Almaden area dams will be low by early summer. However,
rivers and most surface water are at capacity in the Normanton Stock District
and most rivers are still retaining minor flows.
West Region: On-property storages within
the south west are receding with many dams already dry. Some reports of dry
dams have also been received from the Tambo and Winton areas of the central
west. Waterholes in watercourses are adequate at this time and it is anticipated
that there will not be a problem with these storage facilities.
Central Region: Surface water in watercourses
is drying up, but stored water is still holding in most places. There are ongoing
problems in the areas that missed out on run-off rain and where adequate provision
has not been made. The upper Dawson continues to be dry as are the areas around
Dingo and Duaringa. Streamflows in all streams in Central Queensland were well
below the mean for the month. There were base flow recessions in most areas
but many streams have stopped flowing. There was no runoff during the month.
South-East Region: In many areas there was
useful rainfall which filled dams and ran watercourses. There are, however,
many pockets that have missed out such as in the Boonah area, north of Monto,
Eidsvold and south of Gympie. Cooler weather has slowed evaporation rates allowing
dams to maintain water levels. Bore levels in most areas are being maintained.
South Region: Rainfall recorded was between 10mm to 30mm throughout the region.
Falls were higher on the border rivers area. Groundwater storage levels in most
aquifer systems are declining with increased irrigation demand, due to continuing
dry weather conditions. Levels in most basalt aquifer areas across the eastern
Downs have stabilised with some falls experienced in the main water use areas.
In the alluvial aquifers associated with the Condamine River and tributary streams,
water levels have depleted.
Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY
Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454
National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)
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The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries. |
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