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07 Aug 2008

OUTLOOK:

The monthly value of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has risen from -3.0 at the end of September to +8.9 at the end of November. The Australian rainfall probability outlook for the December to February period is based on the shift in monthly value of the SOI during the October/November period. Despite the rise in SOI value a mixed outlook in terms of rainfall probabilities currently exists across Queensland. Areas of higher rainfall probabilities exist predominately in the south west of Queensland where the probability of getting above median rainfall is between 50 to 80%. Regions of the state that have relatively low probabilities of 20 to 40% of exceeding median rainfall over the next three months include a strip running form the Broadsound to Townsville Shire, parts of the Dalrymple, Flinders and Richmond shires and a large part of north Queensland running from Mareeba to Bourke shires. For the rest of Queensland there are currently no strong indications to the next 3 months being excessively wet or dry. For those who like to follow historical patterns more closely years in past that had a "Rapidly Rising" SOI phase in October/November include 1993, 1984, 1981, 1976, 1973, 1969, 1960, 1959, 1947, 1946, 1934, 1918, 1912 and 1906.

STATE OVERVIEW:

Storms across most areas provided some relief this month but as always totals and locations of falls varied. Areas in the north west of the state and on the Darling Downs have benefited greatly this month with follow up rain coming after a break in the season in October. Some areas on the eastern Darling Downs and the Burnett are having the best start to summer for some time. Summer crop planting is occurring on the Darling Downs and Dawson Callide with most growers anticipating a good crop provided some in crop rain is received. In the rest of the state the season is varied but the storms are starting to fill in the gaps but a few dry pockets still remain. Cattle prices remain firm as the selling season begins to come to a close and the rain has given the store cattle market a good push along. The sugar crush is all but complete with Rocky Point mill in the south being the only mill still crushing. Average CCS to date for the state sugar crop is 14.34. As at 31 November 2001 there are 24 shires and 1 part shire drought declared under state drought processes. The area declared represents 6.13% of the land area of the state. There are also 292 Individually Drought Declared Properties (IDPs) in a further 28 shires.

REGIONAL SUMMARIES:

North Region:

This month brought storms and hot weather to the north, but rainfall varied significantly as can be expected with this type of weather pattern. Stock condition is generally fair to poor and most producers are still involved is some sort of supplementation program. Summer cropping prospects were boosted with some good falls late in the month. The northern sugar cane crush has finished after a season of higher CCS and lower tonnages.

West Region:

Most of the northern and central western shires have received sufficient rainfall to promote a good response from standing dry pasture stubble. In the northwest this rain has been useful follow up to a break in the season in October. The greening of many areas has significantly reduced the risk of bushfires. In the south western shires patchy rainfall has occurred but with little remaining stubble to protect regrowth pasture response has been poor. Stock continue to deteriorate in these areas.

Central Region:

Rainfall totals ranged from 25mm to over 100mm with the highest falls occurring in the western areas of the region. Some hail damage was recorded in crops in the Emerald and Theodore districts. Conditions have continued to deteriorate in the northern hinterland and coastal areas where dry feed is present but largely unpalatable. Stock condition continues to decline in these areas. Summer crop planting continues with further rain likely to lead to a large area of summer crop in Central Queensland. It is expected that there will be no plantings of dryland cotton in the Central Highlands this season, with sorghum, mungbeans and sunflower the likely crops of choice.

South-East Region:

The summer season has had a very good start with above average rainfall in most centres of the South East region. There has been excellent pasture growth and most summer crops have already been planted. For some areas exceptional November rainfall has run creeks and filled dams. However there are many areas still needing significant runoff to fill dams and run watercourses.

South Region:

Rainfall was recorded across much of the region in November. However both the intensity and the amounts varied depending on location. Useful falls were recorded on the eastern downs ranging from 100-200mm. Rainfall was less in the western areas with only 20mm being recorded in some areas. In the east the rain has encouraged crop plantings and crops sown in October have benefited greatly. Pasture growth and quality has vastly improved in the higher rainfall areas.

LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES:

North Region:

In the Georgetown and Normanton stock districts storms have provided some relief. Large areas of burnt country have now started to respond with a green pick. Any standing dry feed is of little nutritional value and producers are now burning this in anticipation of rain. Cattle are holding condition with the aid of supplementation and the improved pastures in the areas that received storms. In the Mareeba and Malanda stock districts cattle are in poor condition and storms have provided little relief. In the Townsville and Charters Towers stock districts hot weather has limited pasture response from storm rains, and cattle are showing the effects of the dry conditions. Many producers are still supplementary feeding and have yet to receive a break in the season. Hot weather in the Bowen stock district has also limited the pasture response in those areas that received rain. The scattered falls mean pasture quality varies depending on where the rain fell. Stock are generally in good condition with a few exceptions in the areas missing out on the rain.

West Region:

Rainfall in the north west has resulted in good pasture response and stock are generally reflecting the improvement in seasonal conditions. In the central west the rainfall was more patchy yet most areas recorded some rainfall during the month with the exception of an area north of Winton and the southern parts of Richmond and McKinlay Shires. Generally the decline in stock condition has been halted and supplementary feeding has lessened. In the south west the deteriorating trend in pasture condition and quality continues. The rain that was received was generally insufficient to promote any real change in pasture quality and stock continue to require supplementation. Very dry conditions continued in an area bounded by Adavale, Quilpie, Cunnamulla and Charleville. Central Region: Some good rain has been recorded in the Alpha, and the western areas of Clermont, stock districts. Pastures and stock have responded to the improved conditions. East of Clermont to the coast bounded by Mackay in the north and Blackwater in the south dry conditions continue with little relieving rain received this month. Stock are generally in poor condition and continue to deteriorate. Some relieving rain fell in the southern areas of the region this month with good falls recorded around Biloela, Theodore and Banana. Pasture has responded well but follow up will be needed.

South East Region:

Pasture has responded well to recent rains. Good follow up falls and mild temperatures has enabled continued growth and an increase in bulk. In all areas stock are responding to the fresh green feed and improving in condition. Breeders affected most by the dry conditions are now stabilising and providing good nourishment to calves at hoof. Drought feeding has decreased but normal seasonal supplementation continues.

South Region:

In the Dalby, Crows Nest and Oakey stock districts widespread rain has resulted in good pasture growth with stock starting to respond to these improved conditions. In the Goondiwindi stock district there are still dry patches with the northern parts receiving little rain. Stock are in average condition. In the Mithchell and St George stock districts some useful but patchy rain was recorded. Pasture is responding in areas that received rain but some areas have missed out and pasture and stock condition is declining in these areas. In the Roma, Taroom and Wondoan stock districts good falls of rain were recorded this month, with the exception being the southern part of Warroo Shire. Overall good pasture growth is occurring and cattle are improving in condition.

CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE

North Region:

In the Bowen/Burdekin district vegetable cropping has all but ceased by the months end with late crops suffering from heat stress. Fruit size in the mango crop is down due to dry conditions and a widespread of flowering time. In the wet tropics storm activity produced some good falls and the overall effects were positive on the banana and papaya quality. The cool dry winter was favourable to tropical fruit flower induction. The Atherton Tablelands has received good rain and early peanuts have been planted. Ground preparation for summer crops continues and further planting will occur with the next rains. The sugar crush has finish after a season of high CCS and low tonnages.

Central Region:

In the Dawson Callide a significant area available for summer crop has been planted or is now being planted. Sorghum has been a popular choice and a reasonable area of mungbeans has also been planted. Hail north of Theodore has caused some damage to crops in that area. Patchy rain on the Central Highlands has meant only about 10 000 ha out of a possible 180 000 ha available for summers crops has been planted. Most growers need another 50-80mm to give a good opportunity for a summer crops. Low cotton prices has resulted in no dryland cotton being planted on the highlands this year and hail storms early in November caused damage to some of the irrigated cotton crops.

South-East Region:

After a poor winter crop many producers are looking forward to a better summer cropping period. Large areas have now been planted to soybeans, sorghum, corn and millet. With ideal conditions prevailing a larger than average summer crop planting is expected. In the Gatton district there has been reasonable rain. The winter cropping season has finished and the harvest of potatoes, onions, beetroot and carrots continues. In the Bundaberg district rockmelons, pumpkins and watermelons are now in season. Harvesting of tomatoes, zucchinis, squash, capsicum and eggfruit is being carried out and the macadamia and avocado harvest has finished. In the Caboolture district the strawberry season has generally finished. In the Nambour district good rainfall has topped up irrigation dams and the stonefruit harvest continues.

South Region:

Low wheat yields correlated to the dry winter conditions throughout the region. Production was best in the Border River areas of the Darling Downs and Balonne shires. Prospects for a summer crop in the eastern downs has improved with good falls of rain this month. Soil moisture profiles are low over wide areas of the western downs and some producers have not received enough rain to plant. Dryland cotton planting is reduced, as is irrigated cotton, as a result of insufficient stored water in most areas and depressed prices. Some growers are planting corn instead.

RAINFALL (figure in brackets indicates average)

North Region:

Babinda received 184mm (222) Cairns A/P 105mm (100), Malanda 62mm (106), Ingham 74mm (112), Innisfail 89mm (n/a), Townsville 70mm (55), Tully 98mm (n/a), Bowen 9mm (n/a), Charters Towers 35mm (n/a) Georgetown 35mm (63) and Normanton A/P 14mm (n/a).

West Region:

Birdsville A/P 7mm (n/a), Boulia 52mm (19), Windorah 27mm (16), Cloncurry 9mm (29), Mt Isa 11mm (24), Longreach 80mm (23), Muttaburra 77mm (31), Winton 10mm (28), Eromanga 64mm (18), Augathella 75mm (49) and Charleville 86mm (42).

Central Region:

Clermont recorded 36mm (64), Alpha 110mm (46), Springsure 52mm (66), Mackay 55mm (88), Yaamba 39mm (67), Proserpine A/P 48mm (n/a), Biloela A/P 109mm (86), Mt Larcom 86mm (89), Gladstone 106mm (81), and Theodore 95mm (86).

South-East Region:

Eidsvold recorded 154mm (78), Gayndah 198mm (86), Mundubbera 140mm (80), Esk 179mm (87), Kilkivan 145mm (81), Kingaroy 188mm (n/a), Murgon 152mm (80), Nanango 201mm (85), Proston 169mm (76), and Beaudesert 142mm (93). On the coastal fringe Bundaberg received 96mm (101), Maryborough 145mm (105), Nambour 214mm (158) and Tewantin 195mm (n/a).

South Region:

Clifton 161mm (85), Dalby 151mm (n/a), Goondiwindi 60mm (n/a), Inglewood 60mm (69), Oakey 183mm (81), Pittsworth 131mm (83), Stanthorpe 106mm (83), Toowoomba 166mm (n/a), Warwick 119mm (n/a), Roma 55mm (n/a), Miles 119mm (n/a) St George A/P 44mm (n/a) and Taroom 150mm (75).

WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES

North Region:

A low supply of surface water is causing concern in some districts, and as the water dries back areas are becoming dangerous for weak stock. Generally supplies are adequate and should hold until the season breaks.

West Region:

Many of the rivers and streams in the region have run and as a result waterholes in the watercourses are full. The Barcoo, Thompson, Diamantina, Hamilton and Georgina Rivers have all recorded flows within the riverbanks.

Central Region:

Rainfall in the upper Dawson catchment triggered runoff above the mean for the month and enough to fill all six weir storages on the Dawson River. There was also good runoff in the upper Comet and Nogoa rivers. Most of the other parts of the catchment had little or no runoff. Surface water for stock has caused some problems in the Dauringa area.

South-East Region:

Many districts have had good runs in creeks and dams have been filled. There are some areas that still require good runoff rainfall to replenish major dams.

South Region:

Groundwater levels are still under stress in most aquifer systems due to little recharge to compensate for increased used because of dry conditions. There are some shortages of surface water in the Mitchell Shire. In other areas where shortages were a problem last month the recent rainfall has alleviated problems for the time being.

Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY

Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454

National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)

The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries.