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SITUATION AS AT 31 OCTOBER 2001
OUTLOOK:
The October monthly Southern Oscillation
Index (SOI) value is -3.0. Based on the movements of the SOI over September/October
the SOI is now in a 'consistently near zero' phase. Regions of the state that
have had an improvement in rainfall probabilities for the November to January
period include the coastal strip running from the southern half of Mareeba shire
to the Livingstone and Broadsound shires on the central coast. Parts of the
Maroochy, Caboolture, Kilcoy and Esk shires have also had an improvement in
rainfall probabilities. These areas all currently have a 60-70% chance of getting
above or exceeding the historical median rainfall during November to January.
However parts of the Chinchilla, Murilla, Paroo, Quilpie, Barcoo, Longreach
and Flinders shires only have a 30-40% chance of getting or exceeding the median
rainfall over the November to January period. The rest of the western half of
Queensland also has relatively low rainfall probabilities of 40-50%. For the
eastern side of the state there is a 50-60% chance of getting or exceeding the
historical median rainfall over the November to January period. It should be
noted that when using probability based forecasts the opposite always applies.
For example, if there is a 20% chance of getting above the median rainfall at
a location over the next three months there is an 80% chance of getting below
it
STATE OVERVIEW:
Rainfall was recorded across most districts
this month with the intensity and amounts recorded varying greatly. The rain
offered some welcome relief particularly in some of the drier areas of the state
such as the Darling Downs and Burnett areas, although further rain will be needed
to produce any real change in the current dry seasonal conditions. Most pastures
continued to decline this month and will require good soaking rain to regenerate
to a reasonable level. The potential for a large sorghum crop across the state
still exists and there will be mass plantings should sufficient rainfall occur.
Saleyard numbers are down from the effects of record weekly kills, bumper sales
earlier in the year and dry conditions. The shortage of cattle is causing another
rise in prices with processors competing for limited numbers as producers are
encouraged by recent rainfall to hold stock back. Large stands of tinder dry
feed and hot conditions have resulted in some large bushfires this month with
most districts recording fires. As at 30 October 2001 there are 24 shires and
1 part shire drought declared under state drought processes. The area declared
represents 6.13% of the land area of the state. There are also 278 Individually
Drought Declared Properties (IDPs) in a further 27 shires.
REGIONAL SUMMARIES:
North Region:
October delivered some warm weather and rainfall, which was insufficient to
break the long dry spell, but there will be some short lived benefit in pastures.
Cattle prices are still high and demand is good. Supplies of available stock
are diminishing as the warm to hot conditions prevail and most graziers are
winding down for the season. Generally the only station work from now until
mid March will be supplementary feeding where required and the maintenance of
water sources. For cropping, seasonal conditions didn't deliver anything exceptional
this month and the region is generally in a holding pattern.
West Region:
Some above average rainfalls were recorded this month, although rainfalls were
patchy. The exception to this was the reasonably general fall across the northern
areas of the region. Continued and increasing deterioration has been the trend
for pasture and livestock conditions across the region. Supplies of bulk pastures
are also reducing and the risk of bushfires is increasing as the storm season
approaches. The dry pocket in the Quilpie, Charleville and Cunnamulla areas
continues to worsen.
Central Region:
Soaring temperatures late in the month hastened the decline in pasture condition
and contributed to the high fire danger. Rainfall during the month allowed some
planting of summer crops in the Dawson Callide area however further significant
falls are needed to allow full scale planting across the region. Further rainfall
is required to alleviate the deteriorating seasonal conditions.
South-East Region:
Useful rain fell in many centres allowing planting of some early summer crops.
Rainfall was not sufficient to run watercourses or fill dams and the hot weather
has exacerbated problems.
South Region: Some relieving rain fell across
most of the region this month. Useful falls in the eastern Darling Downs and
the southern portion of the Balonne Shire ranged from 50 to 100mm. Most of the
westen portion received between 10 and 40mm. The heavier rain in the east encouraged
farmers to plant a summer crop. Pastures have benefited from the rain and warmer
weather and livestock prices are holding well.
LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES:
North Region:
Stock in the Malanda and Mareeba stock districts are in poor condition generally
although fat cattle are still coming out of the coastal and tableland areas.
Bushfires in the Peninsula have destroyed a large area of dry standing feed
but storms have alleviated the need for mass stock movement. Numbers being presented
at Mareeba Saleyards have reduced from an average of 1500 per sale to 900. In
the Georgetown stock district stock condition continues to decline, however
as a whole cattle are not too bad for this time of year. Pasture is responding
to rain and is showing a green tinge but follow up rain is needed for any real
benefit to be gained. Breeders in the Normanton stock district are poor and
are struggling to feed calves as they chase a green pick from the first of the
storms. In the Townsville stock district stock and pastures are generally in
average condition and rain late in the month gave the country a boost. In the
Bowen stock district there has been a flush of green growth in areas that received
rain but the majority of pastures have continued to deteriorate this month.
Stock are generally in good to strong condition and most properties are involved
in a supplementation program. In the Charters Towers stock district stock condition
ranges from store to backward store for breeders with calves. Pasture condition
on the whole is low in protein as expected for this time of year and protein
supplements are being fed consistently across the district.
West Region: In the Boulia, Winton, Blackall
and Longreach stock districts pasture protein and energy levels are now extremely
low and impacting on stock condition. Breeders are particularly affected as
they struggle to maintain progeny and dry stock are also beginning to slip.
In the South West an area bounded by Adavale, Quilpie, Cunnamulla and Charleville
is experiencing a rapid deterioration of pasture and stock condition. A vast
majority of marketable stock from this area have been sold and the remainder
are being supplemented. In the North West the normal seasonal pattern is occurring
with beneficial yet patchy rainfall being recorded across the area. Pastures
in areas receiving these falls will respond, providing valuable regrowth. Normal
supplementation of all lines of stock continues.
Central Region:
Pasture quantity varies across the region with some areas becoming denuded and
others having bulk of standing dry feed. The quality of pastures however is
consistently poor and low in protein. In the Springsure and Jericho stock districts
stock condition is fair for the time of year but breeders are struggling. In
the Theodore stock district stock condition is generally below average and the
quality of cattle being presented in good condition at the local sale is dwindling.
Pasture has greened up slightly due to some recent rain but there has been minimal
growth. Any benefit will be lost if follow up rain is not received. Stock in
the Nebo and Broadsound shires are in a weak condition due to the quickly deteriorating
pastures and will need ongoing supplementation to sustain them.
South East Region:
In the Boonah and Beaudesert areas stock condition is fair to poor. Recent rainfall
has produced enough green pick to improve stock condition in the short term.
In the Gatton and Laidley areas breeders continue to loose condition while dry
cattle are holding. The areas around Maryborough, Gympie, Kingaroy, Sunshine
Coast and Brisbane valley have breeders in store to forward condition. In the
north Burnett stock are in fair to good condition but breeders are slipping
in condition. In the Bundaberg area, stock range from fair to average condition.
Stock numbers are generally low in the region and stock that normally would
have been fed have been turned off due to high prices. Dairy farmers in the
Gympie area have had to dramatically increase the amount of feeding to maintain
production. Dryland dairy farmers are in a full drought feeding program. Rainfall
this month has offered some relief but more rain is needed to produce any pasture
bulk.
South Region:
The condition of stock declined over the cooler winter period. However there
has been some recent improvement with the rain and the warmer weather assisting
the production of summer pasture. Supplementary feeding as a drought strategy
is occurring extensively throughout the region. Stocking rates have been greatly
reduced in most areas with some properties well under half their normal stocking
rate.
CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE
North Region:
In the wet tropics, conditions were warm and relatively dry. For the tropical
fruit industries conditions are good for production of all crops. The potato
season continued on the Atherton Tablelands, with quite a significant amount
still to be harvested. Land preparations are under way for the peanut crop but
more rain is needed. The rain that fell this month has been insufficient and
too early to trigger planting of dryland forage or grain crops. The northern
sugar cane crush is rapidly coming to a close with some mills already finished
and others due to finish in early November. The general picture is one of higher
CCS, and lower tonnages.
Central Region:
In the Dawson Callide reasonable rainfall sparked some summer crop planting
of sorghum and mungbeans. Those that did not have enough rain to plant will
do so on the next rainfall event. All of the irrigated cotton crop has been
planted although water will be an issue as many irrigators used the last of
their supplies watering up for planting. Until there is a flow in the river
these crops will be relying on rainfall. The winter crop harvest is virtually
complete with yields generally below average. Rainfall in the Central Highlands
this month was of little benefit to farmers, following a dry autumn and winter
period most growers require falls of around 70mm to provide a planting opportunity.
Despite the dry conditions zero till farmers have been able to profit from moisture
seeking planting technology, which has resulted in some respectable chickpea
and wheat crops. High prices and good yields have seen chickpea growers obtain
reasonable profits.
South-East Region:
After poor results from the winter cropping season many producers are looking
forward to a better summer cropping period. There are large areas awaiting sufficient
rainfall to plant and some early crops of soybeans, sorghum and millet has already
been planted in the Burnett. It is expected that a major planting of summer
crops will occur after the next rain. In the Gatton district the dry conditions
have been favourable for crops, with few fungal diseases causing problems although
crops have relied heavily of irrigation water. Lettuce, broccoli, cabbage and
cauliflower crops are now finishing the winter season. Sweet corn is being planted
and potatoes, onions, beetroot and carrots are being harvested. In the Bundaberg
area rockmelons, pumpkins and watermelons are now planted. Tomatoes, zucchinis,
squash, capsicum and eggfruit are being harvested. The main strawberry season
in the Caboolture district has finished but some growers still have plants that
are cropping. In the Nambour district stone fruit are now being harvested. The
cane harvest has started in all areas with rainfall causing some disruptions.
Generally CCS levels have been high but tonnages lower due to the dry conditions.
Bundaberg and Isis mills finished their crush this month.
South Region:
Wheat growers have begun harvesting in the western parts of the region with
reports of some reasonable yields. Low winter rainfall has restricted production
to the more south western parts of the Darling Downs and the Balonne shire.
Elsewhere plantings and yields were patchy. Prospects for a summer crop in the
eastern Darling Downs have improved with falls of 100mm and above recorded.
However soil moisture profiles are extremely low and further in crop rain will
be needed to ensure a reasonable harvest. The western half of the region will
need another 25 to 50 mm to plant, again subs soil moisture is low. Planting
of dryland cotton is low, as is irrigated cotton, due to insufficient stored
water in most areas. The stonefruit harvest will commence within the next month.
RAINFALL (figure in brackets indicates average)
North Region:
Babinda received 374mm (109) Cairns A/P 51mm (44), Malanda 52mm (50), Ingham
26mm (47), Innisfail 228mm (n/a), Townsville 25mm (25), Tully 102mm (n/a), Bowen
19mm (n/a), Charters Towers 9mm (n/a) Georgetown 30mm (18) and Normanton A/P
4mm (n/a).
West Region:
Birdsville A/P 14mm (n/a), Boulia 34mm (18), Windorah 21mm (17), Cloncurry 88mm
(20), Mt Isa 89mm (20), Longreach 66mm (18), Muttaburra 70mm (22), Winton 36mm
(16), Eromanga 17mm (11), Augathella 30mm (32) and Charleville 27mm (31).
Central Region:
Clermont recorded 37mm (36), Alpha 23mm (34), Springsure 44mm (42), Mackay 5mm
(39), Yaamba 27mm (42), Proserpine A/P 7mm (n/a), Biloela A/P 46mm (61), Mt
Larcom 75mm (59), Gladstone 63mm (61), and Theodore n/a (64).
South-East Region:
Eidsvold recorded 31mm (66), Gayndah 40mm (62), Mundubbera 35mm (71), Esk 63mm
(82), Kilkivan 64mm (75), Kingaroy 50mm (n/a), Murgon 80mm (73), Nanango 44mm
(79), Proston 80mm (70), and Beaudesert 74mm (74). On the coastal fringe Bundaberg
received 40mm (67), Maryborough 76mm (75), Nambour 32mm (107) and Tewantin 47mm
(n/a).
South Region:
Clifton 105mm (67), Dalby 89mm (n/a), Goondiwindi 49mm (n/a), Inglewood 36mm
(58), Oakey 165mm (61), Pittsworth 86mm (67), Stanthorpe 77mm (72), Toowoomba
107mm (n/a), Warwick 85mm (n/a), Roma 63mm (n/a), St George A/P 34mm (n/a) and
Taroom 58mm (60).
WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES
North Region:
Surface water continues to decline with little runoff from recent storms but
generally should hold until the season breaks.
West Region:
Generally on property storages continue to recede. Dams in the Tambo and Winton
areas are still lacking supplies. Waterholes in water courses are adequate at
this time, and it is anticipated that there should not be a problem with these
stores. The storms across the west, although patchy, were enough to create some
small flows in many water courses.
Central Region:
Isolated properties in the north east of the Bauhinia and south east Emerald
Shires are continuing to suffer from water shortages. Across the rest of the
region surface supplies are low with little replenishment from recent rainfall.
In the Theodore stock district local irrigators are on a nil allocation until
the river gets a run in it. The rain that fell did not trigger any runoff through
the water systems. Many streams have stopped flowing including the Fitzroy and
Mackenzie Rivers.
South-East Region:
Albert River, Christmas Creek and Running Creek have irrigation restrictions
in place. Surface water in the Boonah area is low with most farm dams at less
than half their capacity.
South Region:
Parts of the eastern Darling Downs, as well as Booringa, Murilla, Taroom and
Chinchilla shires are experiencing stock water shortages. Groundwater levels
in all aquifer systems continue to decline due to a combination of no recharge
rain and increased use due to the extended dry period.
Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY
Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454
National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)
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The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries. |
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